1.) Fico's (Robert Fico is Slovakia’s Prime Minister, was shot 5 times recently in an assassination attempt) government announced plans to disband the National Crime Agency (NAKA), the very agency investigating high-profile corruption cases, including those involving Fico's own associates.
This follows a crackdown on a number of NAKA investigators who have been probing corruption linked to Fico and his Smer party. These investigators are now being investigated for "abuse of power," while others are being shuffled to lower-tier police depts across the country.
2.) The Culture Minister, Simkovicova, backed by the ultra-nationalist SNS, has fired Matej Drlicka, the head of the Slovak National Theatre. Yesterday, Drlicka opened his door to find two large men and a culture ministry officer delivering his resignation papers
Drlicka had become a thorn in the side of Simkovicova and the SNS, particularly for his support of the public broadcaster RTVS during protests against its shutdown and the push for a new government-controlled broadcaster, STVR
3.) This morning, the Culture Minister has dismissed Alexandra Kusa, the head of the Slovak National Gallery. She was informed of the reasons through a press release. Her mistake was supporting the former theatre director yesterday after his dismissal by the same minister.
This is just the latest move in Fico government's systematic assault on Slovakia's democratic and state institutions. Their message is clear: dissenters will be removed. Such totalitarian tactics should have no place in a democratic country – let alone an EU member state.
4.) Within the last hour, former special prosecutor, Dusan Kovacik, has been released from prison after an intervention by the Justice Minister. Kovacik had previously been sentenced to 8 years for corruption. He also had links to Fico's associates.
Whilst in opposition in 2021, and in a secret recording, Fico said that if Kovacik wasn't imprisoned, it would "really, really help us all".
Today, Fico said that Kovacik's release is "lawful and just" and his case was a "textbook example of a manipulated [judicial] process.”
What is remarkable (and shocking) is the direct political intervention of Fico's Justice Minister, Boris Susko, into the judicial process. The Justice Minister did so without prior authorization of the Supreme Court, only using a special exemption within the criminal codex.
2.) WaPo: Trump took a private flight with Project 2025 leader in 2022
Trump took the flight to speak at a Heritage Foundation conference, where he said, “They’re going to lay the groundwork and detail plans for exactly what our movement will do."
[TS] Oofta.
3.) NYT: Justice Thomas Failed to Reveal More Private Flights, Senator Says
Sen. Ron Wyden says Clarence Thomas failed to publicly disclose MORE private travel provided by conservative megadonor Harlan Crow.
CBP records revealed Clarence and Ginni Thomas took a round trip between Hawaii and New Zealand in November 2010 on Crow's private jet.
4.) WaPo: $10M cash withdrawal drove secret probe into whether Trump took money from Egypt
A secret investigation pursued CIA intelligence indicating Egypt's president sought to illegally inject $10 million into Trump's cash-starved 2016 campaign. DOJ investigators discovered a mysterious $10M cash withdrawal. But they were blocked from seeking key records to determine if Trump took the money, then the case was shut down.
[TS] Feels like Bill Barr’s fingerprints are going to be all over this. Wondering why this wasn’t a bigger story overall.
Worth remembering the Trumps own national security advisor said he was making decisions based on business interests in a private speech. Trump also called Sisi his favorite dictator
5.) Unrest in Bangladesh continues
A short summary:
Parliament Dissolved
PM resigned and fled the country
Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus to head country’s interim Govt.
Hindus in Bangladesh try to flee to India amid violence
QUICK BITES
SF Assembly passed bill (SB 905) to end the “locked door loophole” in CA’s auto burglary statute — which requires proof not just of break in but also that doors were locked. [TS] Absurd this was ever in place to begin with.
Trump holds a presser. It was pretty bad. Talking about crowd sizes and rambling. Brought up the price of bacon (again!): “You have people dying financially because they can’t buy bacon.”
[TS] Just a note on bacon per Ernie Tedeschi: “In June 2024, it would have taken 13.6 minutes of labor at the average production/nonsupervisory wage to buy a pound of bacon. Other than a few outlier months in the depths of the pandemic, that's more affordable than at any point in the Trump Administration.”
UK getting some press around some unrest related to immigration/muslims. Seeing the normal whacky cast of characters with some insane takes (see Elon “Civil war is inevitable.”).
[TS] One component of this that is actually wild (especially from a US perspective) is they (ie the Crown Prosecution Service aka CPS) are allowed to arrest/prosecute you for things you post online. Things that “incite hatred.” Retweets (literally) could get you arrested:
Despite Vance’s recent mischaracterization (“stole valor”) of Walz’s service record, he supported a congressional candidate (Majewski) who egregiously lied about his military service and claimed he was deployed to Afghanistan when he never was. Vance said he is “proud to support him” despite learning about his stolen valor:
[TS] Semi-related, but I think Rep. Peter Meijer (R-MI) summarized the situation about Walz’s accurately:
“I think Walz played fast & loose with his military bio to stay above water as his congressional district drifted right. He let audiences paint in their minds a deceptive picture. It was shady but not stolen valor. Walz alluding to “weapons in war, that I carried in war” to give credibility to his pro gun control stance intentionally sought to paint this ‘deceptive picture,’ just like saying ‘deployed during OEF.’ But he didn’t claim unearned medals or lie about being in Iraq/Afghanistan. Some earlier reporting bought the ‘deceptive picture’ I mentioned above, but that’s not Walz’ words. I’ve had reporters say/write that I was a Marine, or an Afghanistan vet. Trickier was ‘combat vet,’ which I didn’t claim but others have described. His burden to correct…”
[TS] Eric and Trump Jr. seem to be ready to create some Trump-crypto-who-knows-what. Just another avenue for them to take advantage of their supporters for financial gain.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State of Arizona and Michigan have had their blue check marks removed from Twitter.
[RELATED] CNBC: Elon Musk PAC being investigated by Michigan secretary of state for potential violations
Prosecutors contend Hunter Biden was hired by Romanian oligarch Gabriel Popoviciu "to attempt to influence US government agencies," but the deal was structured to avoid FARA because Hunter was concerned about "political ramifications."
AP: Pakistani man with ties to Iran is charged in plot to carry out political assassinations on US soil.
[TS] I wonder if we’ll hear about the deep state Democrat DOJ agents who went undercover as assassins in a sting operation to Pakistani that was trying to kill Trump? You imagine Jim Jordan is going to investigate?
Reuters: UNRWA has fired 9 employees after an internal program found they were likely involved in the October 7th massacre
AP: Prosecutors plan to charge former Kansas police chief over his conduct following newspaper raid.
Republican nominee Donald Trump said that the president should have “some say” over interest rates and monetary policy, a move that would go against the longstanding practice of the US Federal Reserve being independent of political actors.
[TS] Hard pressed to think of something that would undermine confidence in our economic system quicker than this.
“Politics experts should think for just a couple of moments about the very obvious reasons why basically no economically successful country has an institutional arrangement where the president directly controls monetary policy.”
Murder down 17% and violent crime down 6% through June in 69 cities with data per Major Cities Chiefs Association.
CRFB: Deficits have totaled $1.6 trillion over the past year. But that includes “savings” from the court, rolling student debt cancellation illegal. [TS] Without that, we’re talking $1.9 trillion.
6.) [TS] Fairly big moment during Kamala’s speech in Michigan
Pro-Palestine protesters just disrupted Kamala's speech in Michigan.
Her response: "If you want Donald Trump to win say that. Otherwise, I’m speaking.”
[TS] The response from the crowd is also telling. Huge cheers/round of applause. Now, whether that’s because they’re fed up with the protestors or annoyed that someone is interrupting her speech (or both!) we don’t know.
Keep in mind, this was after Harris had met with Palestinian family members and had said she wants a ceasefire. Ignore the activists, nothing will actually please/persuade them.
7.) US Treasury: IRA residential energy credits indicates $8.4B claimed in 2023
Preliminary data released by IRS today on IRA residential energy credits indicates $8.4B claimed in 2023, 66% by those earning $100,000 or more. Treasury statement says expect the numbers to go up as more file claims. Graph by Will McBride at Tax Foundation:
8.) Initial jobless claims came in LOWER than expected last week
A good sign that the economy is solid. Initial claims were 233,000, which is a decline of -17,000 from the week before.
About half that decrease came from Texas. Bottom line: Temporary layoffs in Texas due to Hurricane Beryl did impact the July jobs report somewhat and appear to be reversing.
[RELATED]
For prime-age men, Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) rose to 90.0% in July which is the highest since August 2009.
[RELATED 2]
The state of bond market liquidity (higher means worse liquidity) per Jim Bianco:
[RELATED 3]
General Econ indicator data:
9.) REASON: South Carolina Cops Target Out-of-State Drivers for Highway Robbery
No arrest necessary as South Carolina police hunt for cash
Operation Rolling Thunder, an annual five-day law enforcement operation on a stretch of Interstate 85 between Charlotte, North Carolina, and Atlanta, Georgia. The key points are:
Police use minor pretexts to stop vehicles, often targeting out-of-state rental cars.
Officers then try to establish probable cause to search vehicles, sometimes claiming to smell marijuana.
Even when no illegal items are found, police may seize cash using civil forfeiture laws.
Civil forfeiture allows law enforcement to take property without proving criminal activity or even making an arrest.
Property owners face significant challenges in reclaiming their assets due to legal costs and complexities.
Law enforcement agencies can keep up to 100% of seized assets, creating a profit incentive.
In 2022, Operation Rolling Thunder seized $968,611 over five days, averaging $194,000 per day.
[TS] Civil asset forfeiture is un-American and should be abolished.
10.) What amount of tax breaks do parents with children get?
[TS] Jeremy Horpedahl published an article detailing the amounts here.
How much income you can earn without paying income taxes -- for taxpayers with and without children:
11.) Russia has lost more than 100,000 people trying to conquer Ukraine (many more wounded).
[TS] This is just a colossal waste of human life.
12.) New Paper: Politicized Scientists: Credibility Cost of Political Expression on Twitter.
Punchline from author:
Results suggest a trade-off between credibility and visibility, with significant risks of political expression potentially polarizing public views on science. This calls for a balance between research dissemination and political expression on Twitter
As trust in science faces new challenges, our new study explores the impact of scientists' political expression on SM. Looking at 98K US scientists on Twitter, we observe their ideological polarization and test impact on public perceptions
Contextually, the online presence of research articles published in top general interest and life science journals from 2011 to 2020 shows a clear upward trend in mentions on Twitter, indicating the platform's growing role in scientific communication
Academics don’t only discuss research on social media. About 44% of tracked US academics shared non-neutral political views on issues like abortion, race, and climate, compared to only 7% of general US users
Our analysis extends the descriptive work of Prashant Garg & Thiemo Fetzer to explore the extent of polarization and issue disagreement in online discourse among scientists.
From 2016 to 2022, we observe significant ideological polarization among US academics. Many provide balanced views across topics, but there are distinct ideological camps, with some skewed towards liberal views (towards +1)
Over time, scientists' political views show divergence. Compared to average US users, academics' views are more similar, except on racial equality, where greater polarization is observed
What are the possible consequences? In our experiment, 1,700 US respondents rated 5 synthetic academic profiles varying in characteristics (gender, discipline, seniority, university) and political affiliation (Strong Rep. to Strong Dem., in figure)
Neutral scientists and their research are perceived as most credible, receiving the highest public willingness to engage. To the left and the right of the politically neutral, credibility and engagement decrease monotonically for scientists with stronger political stances
Effects vary with audience political leanings. Democrats (blue) view Republican scientists less favorably but are indifferent between Democrat and neutral scientists. Republicans (red) have the worst views of Democrat scientists but may favor moderately Republican ones
Posting salient (pro-migrant) research (green vs yellow) or providing a political signal (green vs blue/red), both impact public perceptions, including willingness to receive a newsletter ---significant in-group vs out-group dynamics, again suggest affective polarization
Interviews with scientists reveal they anticipate the credibility-cost, often hesitating to express views online, especially outside their expertise. They see net costs from voicing opinions outside their field, but also net benefits within their field
Results suggest a trade-off between credibility and visibility, w significant risks of political expression potentially polarizing public views on science. This calls for a balance between research dissemination and political expression on Twitter.
Fraud is much more common in science than you might think.
A recent preprint provided some stunning evidence for this in a systematic review of preclinical depression studies. Specifically, the paper's authors were looking for fraudulent image duplication.
So, out of 1,035 papers screened for a systematic review of preclinical depression work, the authors of this study found that 588 of those studies included images.
Of those 588 papers, at least 19% had photo duplication issues:
[RELATED 2]
Fraud has likely increased because international participation in science has grown, and fraud is more common outside the West and in more marginal areas of the West than in, e.g., Britain.
Take Indonesia and Brazil's examples (per Paper) :
Both places have double-digit rates of data falsification when researchers are anonymously surveyed. That's huge, and those aren't even the most stereotypically extreme offenders (i.e., Japan, China).
It’s not just when they are surveyed. There is direct evidence with image duplication by country HERE.
300 people refereed the same economics paper, with author listed as
1. an early career scholar
2. anonymous
3. a Nobel laureate (from same university as 1)
Recommendations:
65% reject for early career scholar
23% reject for Nobel laureate
13.) 404 Media: Where Facebook's AI Slop Comes From
Per Jason Koebler:
Facebook itself is paying creators in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines for bizarre AI spam that they are learning to make from YouTube influencers and guides sold on Telegram.
14.) Where is the CHIPS & IRA money being spent?
Most construction was in TX ($90B), AZ ($44B), FL ($34B), CA ($34B), & OH ($30B). Fastest growth was OH (113%), KS (65%), GA (63%), ID (61%), & AR (61%)
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