Danish officials have not confirmed the terms, and no text has been signed or released; Denmark and Greenland both said they expect a signing soon.
- Mon Sept. 7 — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went to Nuuk, Greenland's capital, and pledged European Union money for the island, promising to more than double the sum later. The same week, 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises there.
ContextGreenland is a self-governing part of the Danish kingdom: Copenhagen handles defense and foreign policy, and the island's 57,000 residents elect their own parliament. Trump floated buying Greenland in 2019 and has since refused to rule out taking it by force. A 1951 U.S.-Denmark treaty already grants American basing rights, used at Pituffik in the northwest. Denmark, for its part, announced new Arctic defense spending in January 2025.
The law, named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, also requires sanctions on Russian officials, defense contractors and shadow-fleet tankers; the House cleared it 214-211 on Sept. 16.
- Sept. 5–6 — The bill sat unsigned while the White House ran its own diplomacy: Witkoff and Kushner met Putin in Moscow, then Zelensky in Kyiv. Trump spoke with Putin by phone on Sept. 9 and again around Sept. 10. - Sept. 16 — The House cleared the bill 214-211; the Senate had passed it earlier. - Friday, Sept. 18 — Trump signed it in the Oval Office.
He keeps a board seat as chair emeritus, less than a year after handing the CEO job to Greg Abel.
What the chair emeritus seat leaves Buffett: Voting control through his remaining Class A shares, which he has been giving away to charity in annual batches No operating role: capital allocation now sits with CEO Greg Abel
ContextBuffett took control of Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, when it was a struggling New England textile mill, and built it into a conglomerate that owns Geico, BNSF Railway and large stakes in Apple and Coca-Cola. He turned 96 in August 2026. The obvious question is whether he is leaving the company: he is not. He keeps a board seat as chair emeritus, a title with no operating duties, while Greg Abel, who became chief executive earlier in 2026, runs the businesses and decides where the cash goes. Howard Buffett was long designated the family's non-executive successor — a role Berkshire describes as guarding the company's culture rather than setting strategy.
One of the missing names is Maj. Sorffly Davius of the 42nd Infantry; both men died on missions unrelated to the fighting with Iran.
- Aug. 17 — Centcom answered complaints about conditions aboard the carrier Lincoln, at sea 260 days, by citing its low count of mental health cases. - Aug. 25-26 — ICE detained the father of a deployed Navy sailor after about 20 years in the U.S then released him a day later. - Sept. 1 — Four four-star commanders were reported to have objected to keeping more than 50,000 troops in the Middle East. - Sept. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of Defense Secretary orders records off its classified SIPR network, days after that reporting.
ContextThe casualty database is the Pentagon's own ledger. The department has not published the standard it uses to decide which deaths count as war-related, and it has not said how many deaths in the region it has listed since the fighting began. Without those two figures, a reader cannot tell whether two omissions are an error or the rule working as written.
Danish officials have not confirmed the terms, and no text has been signed or released; Denmark and Greenland both said they expect a signing soon.
The claim. President Trump said late Friday, Sept. 18, that the United States has reached an agreement with Denmark and Greenland that gives America "permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland." He described it as permanent U.S. access, basing and military rights on the island, which is a self-governing territory of Denmark and home to about 57,000 people.
The gap. No agreement text has been published, and Danish officials have not confirmed Trump's description of it. Denmark and Greenland each said they expect something to be signed soon.
What's already there. Greenland already hosts the U.S. Pituffik Space Base, and a 1951 defense treaty with Denmark already lets American forces operate there.
Still open. Whether the signed text says "permanent control over security" — Trump's phrase — or something narrower about basing and access.
How we got herethe story so far
Mon Sept. 7 — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went to Nuuk, Greenland's capital, and pledged European Union money for the island, promising to more than double the sum later. The same week, 11 NATO countries — not the United States — ran military exercises there.
Ongoing3 earlier updates7 days
This story has run 4 times over 7 days, starting Sep 12.
The law, named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, also requires sanctions on Russian officials, defense contractors and shadow-fleet tankers; the House cleared it 214-211 on Sept. 16.
The signing. Trump signed the Russia sanctions bill into law on Friday, Sept. 18, in the Oval Office.
The powers. The law lets him tax imports from countries that keep buying Russian oil at rates as high as 100% of an item's value — a doubling of its price at the border. It also requires sanctions (bans on doing business with named people or companies) on Russian leaders, on foreign firms working with Russia's defense industry, and on the aging tankers that move Russian crude outside Western insurance rules.
The votes. The measure passed the Senate earlier. It squeezed through the House 214-211 two days before the signing.
Where it stands. The tariffs are authorized, not imposed: nothing takes effect until Trump names a country and a rate, and the White House has not said whether he will while talks with Moscow continue.
Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
Sept. 5–6 — The bill sat unsigned while the White House ran its own diplomacy: Witkoff and Kushner met Putin in Moscow, then Zelensky in Kyiv. Trump spoke with Putin by phone on Sept. 9 and again around Sept. 10.
Sept. 16 — The House cleared the bill 214-211; the Senate had passed it earlier.
Friday, Sept. 18 — Trump signed it in the Oval Office.
Gov. Gavin Newsom (Gov-D California) said he signed the order because the federal government has not done enough to regulate AI. He vetoed a broader AI safety bill in 2024.
Trump bans CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House, effective immediately
Trump said Friday, Sept. 18, the three outlets are out "because they're fake news," and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said he "fully supports" the decision. Axios alone reported the remark. There is no written order, and the White House has not said how the bar would work. Federal courts have previously held the White House cannot revoke press access over an outlet's coverage.
Shaheen puts a hold on a $2.8 billion U.S. weapons sale to Israel
Jeanne Shaheen (Sen-D New Hampshire), the top Democrat on Senate Foreign Relations, joins her House counterpart in holding the sale. A hold works because administrations customarily wait for the committee's sign-off before formally notifying Congress — and the Trump administration can override the delay, since the hold is a committee custom and not a legal block.
Trump says his son repaid Russian businessman Umar Kremlev for Bahamas wedding after-party
Umar Kremlev, a businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin, spent what the Journal reports was hundreds of thousands of dollars on Donald Trump Jr.'s two-day post-wedding party in the Bahamas. Trump defended taking the gift as "common." John Curtis (Sen-R Utah) called it corruption.
Elections22 racesShowHide
The midterms · 45 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 61%, Kalshi 60%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
U.S. House — Democrats take it, 89.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
90%90%chance Democrats take it · the same price on both · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 90% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 59.5–60.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
61%60%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 61% and Kalshi 60%.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control90%
Republican, implied10%
volume$6.6M
7-day move+3.0pp
KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?
Democratic control90%
Republican, implied10%
volume12M contracts
bid / ask89% / 90%
7-day move+3.5pp
PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control61%
Republican, implied39%
volume$2.8M
7-day move+8.0pp
KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Democratic control60%
Republican, implied40%
volume4.1M contracts
bid / ask59% / 60%
7-day move+10pp
Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day
U.S. House · Polymarket
U.S. House · Kalshi
U.S. Senate · Polymarket
U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago
87%
86%
53%
49%
6 days ago
88%
85%
54%
49%
5 days ago
87%
86%
59%
49%
4 days ago
89%
86%
59%
52%
3 days ago
90%
86%
60%
55%
2 days ago
90%
89%
61%
56%
yesterday
90%
90%
61%
59%
today
90%
90%
61%
60%
3 closest races
kOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.5%▲2.2Jon Husted 45.5%
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 54.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 55% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 55% · Rick Jackson 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about six points in six days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 3.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 31.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 72% · Dan Sullivan 29%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.1pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.65%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 7.05%, Kalshi 6.90%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 6.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 4.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 65% · Mike Rogers 36%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 83% · John E. Sununu 17%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT.
Day
Chris Pappas · Polymarket
Chris Pappas · Kalshi
John E. Sununu · Polymarket
John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago
84.5%
85.0%
15.0%
15.0%
6 days ago
83.5%
85.0%
15.5%
17.0%
5 days ago
80.5%
85.0%
17.5%
16.0%
4 days ago
82.0%
82.0%
18.5%
18.0%
3 days ago
84.0%
82.0%
16.5%
19.0%
2 days ago
80.5%
82.0%
19.5%
19.0%
yesterday
80.5%
80.0%
19.5%
20.0%
today
80.5%
83.5%
19.5%
16.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
oNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.45%▲0.7Whatley 8.22%
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.6pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 92.4%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 8.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is up about eight points.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 58% · Ken Paxton 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Wilson holds a clear lead after losing about six points in five days.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 22.0%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.65%, Kalshi 0.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 22% · Tom Begich 0.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 13%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 80% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 23%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.8pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.0%, Kalshi 91.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.50%, Kalshi 7.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 92% · John James 8.1%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.4pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.0%, Kalshi 92.6%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.0%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 57% · Vivek Ramaswamy 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.90%, Kalshi 97.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.60%, Kalshi 3.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.65%, Kalshi 78.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 79% · Gina Hinojosa 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT widest venue gap 4.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT.
Day
David Crowley · Polymarket
David Crowley · Kalshi
Tom Tiffany · Polymarket
Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago
82.5%
81.0%
17.5%
20.0%
6 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
15.5%
20.0%
5 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
16.5%
19.0%
4 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
20.0%
3 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
21.0%
2 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
15.5%
19.0%
yesterday
83.5%
82.0%
15.5%
20.0%
today
83.5%
80.5%
15.5%
19.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 18, 8:33 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
He keeps a board seat as chair emeritus, less than a year after handing the CEO job to Greg Abel.
Warren Buffett told Berkshire Hathaway on Friday, Sept. 18, that he is giving up the chairmanship he has held since taking control of the company in 1965. He turned 96 last month. He stays on the board as chair emeritus, and his son Howard Buffett, long designated as the family's non-executive successor, becomes chairman.
The move separates the last piece of authority Buffett held from day-to-day control. Greg Abel took over as chief executive earlier in 2026, less than a year before this announcement. Buffett's own explanation, per the BBC's account of his remarks: "Father Time always wins."
Where it stands. Abel runs the operating businesses and decides how Berkshire spends its cash.
What the chair emeritus seat leaves BuffettVoting control through his remaining Class A shares, which he has been giving away to charity in annual batches2 details
Voting control through his remaining Class A shares, which he has been giving away to charity in annual batches
No operating role: capital allocation now sits with CEO Greg Abel
The opinion page frames six decades of compounding returns at Berkshire as a rebuttal to the claim that public stock markets reward only short-term trading.
Ongoing1 earlier update18 days
This story has run 2 times over 18 days, starting Sep 1.
The Post says both men died on missions unrelated to the fighting with Iran; the Pentagon has not confirmed the account.
The omission. More U.S. troops have died in the Middle East since the war with Iran began than the Defense Department has acknowledged in public, The Washington Post reported on Friday, Sept. 18. The Pentagon's casualty database — the running public list of service member deaths, the one families and reporters use to count the war's cost — leaves out at least two men who were deployed to the region and died there while on missions unconnected to the conflict, according to that report.
The officials. Defense officials told The Post they were frustrated that the deaths do not appear in the database. The Post identified one of the two men; his name and unit could not be independently confirmed, and this account does not repeat them.
Still open. The Pentagon has not responded to the report. It has not said whether the two names will be added, how many deaths in the region it counts as war-related, or how it draws that line.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
Aug. 17 — Centcom answered complaints about conditions aboard the carrier Lincoln, at sea 260 days, by citing its low count of mental health cases.
Aug. 25-26 — ICE detained the father of a deployed Navy sailor after about 20 years in the U.S then released him a day later.
Sept. 1 — Four four-star commanders were reported to have objected to keeping more than 50,000 troops in the Middle East.
Sept. 3 — The Pentagon pulled decades of Defense Secretary orders records off its classified SIPR network, days after that reporting.
