Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Sunday

Trump speaks behind a presidential-seal lectern as supporters and a teleprompter fill the rally venue.
NBC News
1uscontested

Trump orders one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million seniors, paid from a 2008 fund

Most direct deposits arrive from Social Security on or around Thursday, Oct. 8, which is 26 days before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.

Who the eligibility rules shut out of the $90: Medicare Advantage enrollees: private plans are outside the fund’s legal reach, and they hold 35 million of about 64 million people with Parts A and B (KFF, 2026) People whose premium Medicaid already pays: about 12 million are enrolled in both programs (KFF) Higher earners paying the income surcharge on Part B: CMS has not said how many

ContextThe fund has never been spent on its stated purpose: raising payments in original Medicare. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found no money paid out of it since 2008. Meanwhile, Congress rewrote its balance 28 times. One of those changes, a $20.7 billion cut in 2010, helped pay for the Affordable Care Act. On Sept. 24, 2020, before that year's election, Trump promised $200 drug discount cards to 33 million seniors. None were ever sent.

NBC NEWS10 sources

2usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners

A senior administration official says the two envoys are negotiating the financial terms to secure "a substantial upfront payment and profits for the United States."

Sept. 13 — Kyiv began preparing for peace talks to resume in October, with President Volodymyr Zelensky weighing the back channel run by Witkoff and Kushner.

ContextLukoil's foreign holdings sit in a Vienna company that also holds Kazakh assets outside this deal. Treasury sanctioned Lukoil on Oct. 22, 2025; its license permits sale talks only until Oct. 22, 2026, and closing needs separate Treasury sign-off.

THE HILL3 sources

3not newslongformIran war

Vance chairs secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and a Saudi request to bomb the Houthis

Trump did not attend; Axios says the last comparable meeting came in June 2025, days before Israel went to war with Iran.

What the carrier buildup puts near Iran by November: The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group left San Diego on Sunday, Sept. 27, five days before the meeting. It will join two carriers that have been in the Arabian Sea since the war began. The Makin Island amphibious group sails with it, carrying about 2,000 Marines. The full package is due by November. A U.S. official called it the biggest buildup since 2003.

ContextThe Iran war began Feb. 28, 2026, and Trump is now weighing a return to major combat. Axios says the last comparable meeting was in June 2025, days before Israel went to war with Iran. The U.S. has bombed the Houthis before. From March 15 to May 6, 2025, it hit more than 1,000 targets, until a truce brokered by Oman stopped the strikes. That truce has held since. In September 2026, Houthi forces advanced about 150 km along Yemen's coast and took the port town of Mocha. On Sunday, Sept. 20, 12 days before the Camp David meeting, Trump ordered strikes on them, then called them off before launch.

AXIOS1 source

4not newslongform

Pennsylvania confirms 977 measles cases this year and reports five deaths; the CDC's national tally counts two

The CDC changed its counting rule on Sept. 4. The state counts any death within 30 days of a lab-confirmed infection.

How Pennsylvania's 977 cases measure against past outbreaks and vaccine rates: Philadelphia, 1990–91, Pennsylvania's last worse outbreak: more than 1,400 confirmed cases and 9 child deaths Entire U.S. in 2019, then the largest outbreak since 1992: 1,274 confirmed cases across 31 states (CDC) Lancaster County, home to 391 of the 977 cases: just under 88% of kindergartners MMR-vaccinated in 2025-26, against the 95% herd-immunity line

ContextThe two tallies differ because each side counts a measles death a different way. Since Friday, Sept. 4, the CDC has stopped republishing state death counts. It now lists a measles death only when NCHS (the federal office that collects death certificates) finds measles named as the underlying cause on the certificate. Pennsylvania counts any death within 30 days of a lab-confirmed infection, unless an unrelated cause explains it. That is the same window the World Health Organization uses. Under the state's rule, Pennsylvania has five deaths this year; the CDC index lists two. No national standard for counting these deaths has ever existed, and the CDC and state disease experts are now drafting one.

THE HILL1 source

Sunday · The daily brief

Oct 42026

4 leads34 briefs15 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary4 stories

News news2

  1. Trump orders one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million seniors, paid from a 2008 fundMost direct deposits arrive from Social Security on or around Thursday, Oct. 8, which is 26 days before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.
  2. Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partnersA senior administration official says the two envoys are negotiating the financial terms to secure "a substantial upfront payment and profits for the United States."

Not news news2

  1. Vance chairs secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and a Saudi request to bomb the HouthisTrump did not attend; Axios says the last comparable meeting came in June 2025, days before Israel went to war with Iran.
  2. Pennsylvania confirms 977 measles cases this year and reports five deaths; the CDC's national tally counts twoThe CDC changed its counting rule on Sept. 4. The state counts any death within 30 days of a lab-confirmed infection.

News news2 stories

NBC NEWS

Trump orders one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million seniors, paid from a 2008 fund

Most direct deposits arrive from Social Security on or around Thursday, Oct. 8, which is 26 days before the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterms.

Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday, Oct. 2, that his administration would “immediately” send checks of “nearly $100” to seniors, but CMS, the agency that runs Medicare, put the real figure at $90 in a fact sheet.

The rebate. Each eligible person gets $90 once, toward Medicare Part B (the monthly premium for doctor visits and outpatient care). The standard 2026 Part B premium is $202.90 a month.

The money. The roughly $2 billion, $90 each for 20.8 million people, comes from the Medicare Improvement Fund, which Congress created in 2008. Trump called it “a pointless ‘Slush Fund’ that has only been used by Dumocrats in Congress.”

The bigger promise. The same post repeated his $5,000 “Trump Dividend” for every adult citizen if Republicans keep both chambers of Congress, compared with the $90 rebate going out now.

What next. CMS says Treasury mails paper checks later in October, and Social Security takes payment-status calls starting Thursday, Oct. 15.

Who the eligibility rules shut out of the $90Medicare Advantage enrollees: private plans are outside the fund’s legal reach, and they hold 35 million of about 64 million…3 details
  • , and they hold 35 million of about 64 million people with Parts A and B (KFF, 2026)
  • People whose premium Medicaid already pays: about 12 million are enrolled in both programs (KFF)
  • Higher earners paying the income surcharge on Part B: CMS has not said how many

Red take

Trump is right to hand this money to seniors, because Congress never would. CBO, Congress's own budget scorekeeper, found the Medicare Improvement Fund has paid out nothing since 2008, while lawmakers rewrote its balance 28 times, once cutting $20.7 billion to help pay for the Affordable Care Act. Leave this $2 billion in the fund and it becomes the next bill's piggy bank instead of $90 against a $202.90 monthly premium.

Blue take

Trump's $90 Medicare rebates are a campaign mailer billed to Medicare: most land 26 days before the Nov. 3 midterms, announced in the same Truth Social post that repeated his $5,000 "Trump Dividend" if Republicans keep both chambers. The 35 million people in private Medicare Advantage plans get nothing. Wave this through, and a fund Congress set aside to raise payments in original Medicare becomes a pre-election payout whenever a president's party needs one.

Ongoing21 earlier updates39 days

This story has run 22 times over 39 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
  6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
  11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
  12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
  13. House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
  14. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
  15. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
  16. UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  17. UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
  18. UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  19. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
  20. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
  21. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
  22. UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners — this issue
THE HILLUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners

A senior administration official says the two envoys are negotiating the financial terms to secure "a substantial upfront payment and profits for the United States."

Talks to end Russia's four-year war in Ukraine now include a multibillion-dollar deal over Lukoil's oil fields, refineries and gas stations around the world, The New York Times reports. Russian President Vladimir Putin raised it with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner at a meeting on Saturday, Sept. 5. The package includes gas stations in New Jersey.

The investor group includes Trump donor Todd Boehly and two Middle Eastern firms that have done business with Kushner or with Witkoff's family.

Still open. The Times says it is not apparent whether Witkoff or Kushner would profit.

Catch upwhat happened before · 21 earlier issues

Sept. 13 — Kyiv began preparing for peace talks to resume in October, with President Volodymyr Zelensky weighing the back channel run by Witkoff and Kushner.

20 earlier issues
How the buyer group ties back to both envoysMoutaz and Ramez Al-Khayyat (Qatar) are financing partners in Kushner's $4 billion resort project in Albania.3 details
  • Moutaz and Ramez Al-Khayyat (Qatar) are financing partners in Kushner's $4 billion resort project in Albania.
  • A vehicle backed by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed, the UAE's national security adviser, bought 49% of World Liberty Financial for $500 million; at least $31 million was slated for Witkoff-family entities.
  • The U.S. International Development Finance Corp., a federal agency, is also in the group.

Quick bites12

Courts2 bites

  1. Florida jury acquits ex-deputy Eddie Duran of manslaughter in 2024 killing of airman Roger Fortson

    THE NEW YORK TIMES

    An Okaloosa County jury took about two hours to acquit after body-camera video showed Duran shooting Fortson, who answered his door holding a gun pointed at the ground after a false domestic-disturbance report.

    Trial and what comes nextDuran faced up to 30 years on manslaughter with a firearm after a four-day trial (The Guardian).3 details
    • Duran faced up to 30 years on manslaughter with a firearm after a four-day trial (The Guardian).
    • Family lawyer Ben Crump says the family will pursue its federal civil rights suit.
    • Fortson's mother, Chantemekki Fortson: 'They went to deliberate for just two hours. So, again, I wasn't surprised.'

  2. Justice Samuel Alito says he weighs retiring from the Supreme Court every year

    THE NEW YORK TIMES2026 midterms

    Alito told CBS News's Jan Crawford he considers retirement each year, weeks before midterms that will decide whether Republicans keep the Senate majority needed to confirm his successor.

Crime and punishment2 bites

  1. Tennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution

    THE GUARDIANUpdate

    Gov. Bill Lee (Gov-R Tennessee) said Saturday, Oct. 3, that Strada will leave this month and former U.S. Attorney Ed Stanton will lead an independent review. Pike is still unconscious on a ventilator after she survived two doses of pentobarbital.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 3 earlier issues
    • Sept. 30 — A 6th Circuit panel voted 2-1 to halt Pike's execution about an hour before it began. The Supreme Court lifted the stay hours later, with its three liberals dissenting.
    • Sept. 30 — Pike, 50, survived two pentobarbital doses after about an hour of tries to place an IV. Tennessee called off its last execution of 2026.
    • Oct. 2 — Pike lay unconscious on a ventilator. Her lawyers moved to preserve evidence. Republican lawmakers sought a review of the single-drug method.
    2 earlier issues
    Key factsStrada: 'I continue to believe the department carried out its responsibilities in accordance with the established protocol.' He…3 details
    • Strada: 'I continue to believe the department carried out its responsibilities in accordance with the established protocol.' He said he is stepping aside for the good of Tennesseans.
    • Pike's lawyers say at least 7 needles went into her left arm. They call the failure 'systemic' and 'far beyond any one person.'
    • Lawyers count 5 'botched' executions under Strada in Tennessee and Arizona since 2022, per The Guardian. He became commissioner in 2023.
    Ongoing3

    This story has run 4 times over 3 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
    2. UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
    3. UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
    4. UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution — this issue

  2. Cornell president backs state probe; campus police made Chi Phi drug arrest 22 hours before alleged assault

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    Cornell President Michael Kotlikoff now backs James's criminal probe and the outside review. He spoke in an 8-minute video. He called Jane Doe's allegations 'deeply disturbing.' He said the school 'must do better.' Campus police records show officers made a drug arrest at the Chi Phi house. That arrest came 22 hours before the alleged assault.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On Oct. 1, Cornell agreed to an outside review of how it handled a student's lawsuit. She accuses 7 Chi Phi brothers of gang-raping her on Oct. 19, 2024. The Tompkins County DA reopened the case. He said he never saw her rape claim. By Oct. 3, Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) had named Attorney General Letitia James special prosecutor. Hochul said the local DA never interviewed the accuser.

    Kotlikoff called for a serious look at Greek life: 'Being part of a group can never diminish individual responsibility' (BBC). DA Van Houten relied only on Doe's 6-page initial police statement (NYT).

    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 3 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. Cornell agrees to outside review of how it handled a student's gang rape lawsuit against 7 Chi Phi members
    2. UpdateAttorney General Letitia James opens criminal probe of alleged Cornell fraternity gang rape
    3. UpdateCornell president backs state probe; campus police made Chi Phi drug arrest 22 hours before alleged assault — this issue
Trump and GOP senators2 bites

  1. Trump posts what appears to be Tom Cotton's cell number to push daylight saving time bill that passed the House 308-117

    NBC NEWS

    Trump urged Arkansans to pressure Tom Cotton (Sen-R Arkansas), chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, to pass the Sunshine Protection Act. The bill passed the House 308-117 in July. It has stalled in the Senate.

    • Cotton on X: "Arkansans don't want their kids going to school in the pitch dark, and I'll always put Arkansas first."
    • Trump replied that he, "unlike Tom," won Arkansas "three times," and accused Cotton of "ego" in later posts.

  2. Navatek CEO told FBI agents Susan Collins promised $32 million in Navy contracts

    PROPUBLICA

    Navatek CEO Martin Kao told FBI agents that Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) committed to getting his company $32 million in naval contracts, and that a pro-Collins super PAC asked him for $500,000. Both claims are Kao's own account. Collins calls the reporting a "smear job" built on "the words of a twice-convicted felon."

    The moneyKao routed an initial $150,000 donation through a shell company; the super PAC head replied "Very smart."3 details
    • Kao routed an initial $150,000 donation through a shell company; the super PAC head replied "Very smart."
    • Kao and associates gave nearly $900,000 to dozens of politicians.
    • Kao says the super PAC's $500,000 request came in 2019.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 11 days, starting Sep 23.

    1. FBI sought a bribery probe touching Susan Collins before anti-corruption units were dismantled
    2. Navatek CEO told FBI agents Susan Collins promised $32 million in Navy contracts — this issue
Also tonight2 bites

  1. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data

    BLOOMBERGInflation and the Fed

    Traders no longer expect the Fed or the ECB to follow September's rate hikes with another this month. The shift came after US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists polled by Bloomberg had expected 90,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%.

    Trump opposes the rate hikes. The Fed raised rates in September anyway.

    Ongoing9

    This story has run 10 times over 23 days, starting Sep 11.

    1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
    2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
    3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
    4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
    5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
    6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
    7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
    8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
    9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
    10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data — this issue

  2. UK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdateIran war

    All six suspects arrested over the Sept. 27 incident at the U.S.-used air base are now free on bail; police found gasoline but no explosives in three vans tied to the first five, and Iran denies involvement.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
    • Sept. 27 — An incident at RAF Fairford, an English air base used by the U.S. military, led to five arrests; all five were later bailed.
    • Sept. 30 — Counterterrorism police said they found gasoline, not explosives, in three vans tied to the five, and defended bail against U.S. criticism.
    • Oct. 2 — Police arrested one more person in Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
    1 earlier issue
    Also in the recordTrump on bailing the first five suspects: "I wouldn't have done that." (NBC News)2 details
    • Trump on bailing the first five suspects: "I wouldn't have done that." (NBC News)
    • PBS gives the sixth suspect's age as 25; Oct. 2 reports said 27.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Sep 30.

    1. UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
    2. UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
    3. UpdateUK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail — this issue
Elections4 bites

  1. NYT/Siena polls: Democrats lead Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, tie in Kansas

    THE HILL2026 midterms

    Trump's approval in five states he won by 11 to 16 points in 2024 now averages 40%. That is down 5 points since June. Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats to take the Senate.

    Race by raceLeads: James Talarico (D-TX) +6 over Ken Paxton (R-TX); Mary Peltola (D-AK) +7 over Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska); Sherrod Brown…3 details
    • Leads: James Talarico (D-TX) +6 over Ken Paxton (R-TX); Mary Peltola (D-AK) +7 over Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska); Sherrod Brown (D-OH) +3 over Jon Husted (Sen-R Ohio).
    • Kansas is tied between Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) and Adam Hamilton (D-KS); outlets disagree on Iowa, with The Hill showing the Republican up 1 and the Washington Examiner showing Josh Turek (D-IA) up 1.
    • Only 27% of independents across the five states approve of Trump; 71% disapprove.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 12 days, starting Sep 22.

    1. Senators say Kansas and Nebraska Senate seats are now in play; Democrats need 4 to flip the chamber
    2. UpdateSenate GOP asks donors for $8.9 million more to defend Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, all states Trump won by double digits
    3. NYT/Siena polls: Democrats lead Senate races in Texas, Alaska and Ohio, tie in Kansas — this issue

  2. Trump urges Republicans to vote by mail and early in the midterms

    CNN2026 midterms

    Trump urged Republicans to vote by mail and early in the midterms, CNN reports. He has long called mail voting "inherently corrupt," though he has voted by mail himself.

  3. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4

    POLITICO2026 midterms

    Lula (President, Brazil), 80, is seeking a fourth term against Flávio Bolsonaro (Senator, Brazil), son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who got 27 years in prison for a coup attempt. Quaest has Lula ahead, 46% to 45%. Datafolha has Lula ahead, 45% to 42%.

    BackgroundThe Trump angle and the map3 facts
    • Trump put tariffs on Brazilian imports over Jair Bolsonaro's trial.
    • Lula calls his rival's closeness to Trump a threat to Brazil's sovereignty; Brazilian officials fear U.S. interference.
    • Both closed their campaigns in São Paulo state, home to about a fifth of Brazil's voters.

  4. AP-NORC poll: voters favor Democrats over Republicans on cost of living, 38% to 27%, but doubt both

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER2026 midterms

    About 4 in 10 registered voters now pick Democrats on the economy, up from 26% of U.S. adults in February, though the two samples differ, so the gain is not a clean comparison. Friday's AP-NORC story, on Oct. 2, covered Trump's economic approval. This one asks which party voters trust.

    Neither party gets much trust55% say Republicans can't solve important problems; 48% say the same of Democrats.3 details
    • 55% say Republicans can't solve important problems; 48% say the same of Democrats.
    • About 6 in 10 say the GOP focuses on the rich.
    • 68% of registered voters call Trump 'too extreme.'

Elections22 races

The midterms · 30 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 94%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 64%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.85–93.50%
94%92%chance Democrats take it · 1.6pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 94% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 63.5–64.5%
65%64%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 65% and Kalshi 64%.

3 closest races

  • vNevada governorFord vs. LombardoFord53.5%Lombardo52.5%books split

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Nevada governor

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 5.0pp

    Nevada governor. Lead in percentage points, positive to Aaron Ford. Polymarket: Ford ahead by 6 points. Kalshi: Lombardo ahead by 4 points. Every day is in the table below.

    Ford aheadLombardo ahead10%5%tied5%10%7d agotodayFord +6%PolymarketLombardo +4%Kalshi

    today

    • Ford+6%Polymarket
    • Lombardo+4%Kalshi
    • Ford53.5%Polymarket
    • Ford48.5%Kalshi
    • Lombardo47.5%Polymarket
    • Lombardo52.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • uGeorgia governorRick Jackson 52.5%▲4.0Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.8%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead after the Democratic side lost about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qIowa SenateAshley Hinson 56.0%▲1.3Josh Turek 44.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • pAlaska SenateMary Peltola 72.5%▲0.4Dan Sullivan 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • xGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.35%▲1.4Collins 3.52%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.2%, Kalshi 95.5%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.80%, Kalshi 4.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nMaine SenateTroy Jackson 59.0%▲1.8Susan Collins 40.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 72.3%▲1.6Mike Rogers 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.5%▲2.7Dan Osborn 26.8%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 27.0%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.5%▲0.714.0%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 85.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 14.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.65%▲1.7Whatley 4.25%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.2%, Kalshi 95.1%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.55%, Kalshi 4.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio SenateSherrod Brown 61.3%▲3.3Jon Husted 38.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 62.0%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oTexas SenateJames Talarico 64.5%▲4.2Ken Paxton 35.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • abAlaska governor19.00%▲0.780.1%WilsonBegich 0.93%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 19.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • adArizona governorKatie Hobbs 88.5%▲0.211.3%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahFlorida governorByron Donalds 77.0%▲0.923.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaIowa governorRob Sand 84.5%Lahn 15.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 94.13%▲1.2James 6.07%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.70%, Kalshi 93.55%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.30%, Kalshi 6.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.47%▲0.7Blakeman 4.60%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 95.45%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.5%, Kalshi 4.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mOhio governorAmy Acton 64.0%▲3.0Vivek Ramaswamy 35.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.20%Garrity 2.88%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.9%, Kalshi 97.5%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.60%, Kalshi 3.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeTexas governorGreg Abbott 74.9%▲6.024.5%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 74.3%, Kalshi 75.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 81.0%19.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 3, 8:32 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

Ongoing3 earlier updates23 days

This story has run 4 times over 23 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. CNN: More than 100 US advisers support Saudi campaign against Houthis
  2. UpdateHouthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers
  3. US refuses Saudi requests for airstrikes on Houthis, sends targeting data for Saudi offensive instead
  4. Vance chairs secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and a Saudi request to bomb the Houthis — this issue
AXIOSIran war

Vance chairs secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and a Saudi request to bomb the Houthis

Trump did not attend; Axios says the last comparable meeting came in June 2025, days before Israel went to war with Iran.

Vice President JD Vance chaired an unannounced, hours-long meeting on Friday, Oct. 2, at Camp David (the presidential retreat in Maryland), three U.S. officials told Axios. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, special envoy Steve Witkoff, CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine attended. Trump was not there. The White House declined to comment.

Iran. Trump is weighing a return to major combat. Asked his next move, he said: "If I told you, you would have a major story."

Yemen. Saudi Arabia wants U.S. airstrikes on the Houthis, the Iran-backed group fighting its way down Yemen's Red Sea coast.

Still open. No decision has been announced. One official said only: "Things were decided or at least deeply discussed."

BackgroundWhat the carrier buildup puts near Iran by November3 facts
  • The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group left San Diego on Sunday, Sept. 27, five days before the meeting. It will join two carriers that have been in the Arabian Sea since the war began.
  • The Makin Island amphibious group sails with it, carrying about 2,000 Marines.
  • The full package is due by November. A U.S. official called it the biggest buildup since 2003.

Related reading

RELATEDSaudi Arabia plans a Yemeni ground offensive to retake the Bab al-Mandab coast from the Houthis

Reuters reported Friday, Oct. 2, that Riyadh is planning the operation. Yemeni government ground troops would lead it, with Saudi air support, possibly within weeks. The aim is to reverse Houthi gains around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the narrow southern mouth of the Red Sea, and break their chokehold on shipping.

Ongoing8 earlier updates39 days

This story has run 9 times over 39 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. Measles kills two Pennsylvanians
  2. Pennsylvania reports 2 measles-associated deaths, its first in 35 years, as coroner disputes infant case
  3. CDC leaves two Pennsylvania measles deaths out of its national count
  4. Coroner rules measles killed a 6-week-old in Lancaster County as US cases hit 3,134, the most since 1991
  5. Unvaccinated 40-year-old Pennsylvania woman dies of measles complications, third death tied to outbreak
  6. UpdateCDC counts only NCHS-listed measles deaths, showing zero for 2026
  7. UpdatePennsylvania confirmed its fourth measles death this year, an 18-year-old, while the CDC's national count remains zero.
  8. UpdatePennsylvania reports 4 measles deaths this year; CDC's count is still 0
  9. Pennsylvania confirms 977 measles cases this year and reports five deaths; the CDC's national tally counts two — this issue
THE HILL

Pennsylvania confirms 977 measles cases this year and reports five deaths; the CDC's national tally counts two

The CDC changed its counting rule on Sept. 4. The state counts any death within 30 days of a lab-confirmed infection.

The outbreak. Pennsylvania has confirmed 977 measles cases this year across 39 of its 67 counties. That makes it the state's worst outbreak in more than 35 years. 195 people have been hospitalized.

The death count. The state reports five measles deaths. The CDC has not recognized that count; its national index lists two. The gap has set off a public fight between Josh Shapiro (Gov-D Pennsylvania) and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

How Pennsylvania's 977 cases measure against past outbreaks and vaccine ratesPhiladelphia, 1990–91, Pennsylvania's last worse outbreak: more than 1,400 confirmed cases and 9 child deaths3 details
  • Philadelphia, 1990–91, Pennsylvania's last worse outbreak: more than 1,400 confirmed cases and 9 child deaths
  • Entire U.S. in 2019, then the largest outbreak since 1992: 1,274 confirmed cases across 31 states (CDC)
  • Lancaster County, home to 391 of the 977 cases: just under 88% of kindergartners MMR-vaccinated in 2025-26, against the 95% herd-immunity line