Political Guyentist

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Political Guyentist

Thursday

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The Guardian
1usUpdateBattle for the Senate

NBC calls 11 more House seats for Democrats on Wednesday, Nov. 4, reaching 242 to 150; Alaska and Mississippi Senate races still uncalled

NBC's model still puts Democrats at 258 House seats or more, the same floor it set that morning; CBS estimates a final total of 251 to 268.

- Sept. 27 — Cook Political Report projected Republicans would lose the House, with Democrats favored to win a slim majority. - Sept. 30 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped. - Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they needed 4 for a majority. - Oct. 10 — Senate Majority PAC started a Kansas ad buy against Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas). - Oct. 19 — Trump campaigned in Kansas, with Marshall trailing by under a point in one poll. - Oct. 24 — Over 20 million people had voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%. - Oct. 30 — CNN polls showed Democrats leading by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas, with Maine and Kansas statistical ties. - Nov. 3 — Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections.

ContextDemocrats won 215 House seats in 2024, so CBS's range means a net gain of 36 to 53; the biggest midterm gains from 1946 through 2022 were 64 in 2010, 55 in 1946 and 54 in 1994. The president's party lost both chambers in four of those 20 midterms. Government funding expires Dec. 11 and the new Congress starts Jan. 3, 2027, so Republicans could settle spending first.

THE GUARDIAN11 sources

2usUpdatecontested

Democrats post 3 investigator and counsel jobs for the Senate committee they take over in January, and warn agencies to preserve records

Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), expected to chair the House's main investigative committee, told Trump officials to “lawyer up”; 7 in 10 voters in the AP Voter Poll say Congress is not doing enough to check presidential power.

After their Nov. 3 midterm wins, Democrats named the Trump family business, DOGE, immigration enforcement and the Epstein files as investigation targets. They also previewed subpoenas of Trump officials and corporations.

ContextFrom 2001 to 2024, the full House referred 11 people to the Justice Department for criminal contempt (defying a congressional demand), and the department prosecuted two: Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro. Suing is the other route, and the Eric Holder records fight ran from a 2012 referral to a 2016 court order, about two House terms.

TIME10 sources

3usUpdatecontestedIran war

Trump weighs resuming Iran strikes, negotiating, or keeping the blockade and sanctions after the midterms, Axios reports

Axios reports the military is finishing preparations to resume major combat, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want the blockade and sanctions to play out longer.

- By Oct. 18 — The Wall Street Journal reported Iran was giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for strikes on Saudi Arabia. - Oct. 21 — Iran and the Houthis claimed attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites. - By Oct. 22 — The State Department ordered non-emergency staff and families out of Saudi Arabia. - Oct. 23 — Brent crude closed at $116.72 a barrel, its highest since April 29, Reuters reported. A memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton said Iranian plots to kill Americans had reached "advanced stages," naming no targets, Axios reported. - By Oct. 26 — Trump called it "decision time": a deal, or resumed attacks to "finish it off." - Late Oct. — Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Qatari envoys pressed Tehran for a deal while U.S. and Israeli officials expected a week of post-election strikes without one. - Nov. 2-3 — The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island; Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if sanctions and the port blockade ended. - Nov. 4 — Iran's Revolutionary Guards said mines destroyed four tankers in the strait; BBC Verify found no evidence that they were.

ContextThe U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports (warships stopping ship traffic in and out) began April 13, nearly seven months ago. Talks are stuck on what comes first. Washington wants cuts to Iran's uranium enrichment (the process that makes nuclear fuel and, at high levels, bomb material), while Tehran wants sanctions relief and the blockade lifted first. Qatar, a mediator, confirmed on Nov. 3 that proposals were being exchanged but announced no breakthrough. Oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping route out of the Persian Gulf, ran 14.2 million barrels a day in a Sept. 30 snapshot, against roughly 17 million before the war.

AXIOS2 sources

4usIran war

Schumer says Democrats would cut Pentagon funding if necessary to end the Iran war, predicts Republican support

Democrats have won at least 54 Senate seats for January, six short of the 60 votes needed to pass most bills.

What a Pentagon cutoff would need in votes, and where it worked: Withholding new war money needs no presidential signature, but an enacted ban on spending needs Trump's signature or a veto override. Thirteen Republicans would have to join a united Democratic bloc to override a Trump veto if all 100 senators vote; the House would also need a two-thirds vote. Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska), Rand Paul (Sen-R Kentucky) and Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) backed a September withdrawal measure, but that was not a vote to cut funding. Congress has clearly forced an end to bombing once: the cutoff of money for bombing Cambodia became law July 1, 1973, and the bombing stopped Aug. 15, 45 days later.

ContextThe House voted 215-208 on June 3 and the Senate 50-48 on June 23 to order a withdrawal from the war, but that type of resolution never reaches the president and cannot become law. The Senate rejected another withdrawal measure 49-50 on Sept. 24. Current government funding runs out Dec. 11, 23 days before the new Congress arrives Jan. 3.

THE HILL3 sources

5usHegseth's Pentagon

Trump says he isn't looking to replace Defense Secretary Hegseth. CBS, ABC and the Journal report he is asking advisers whether Hegseth should stay

The Pentagon says Hegseth is “100% committed” to serving through Trump's term. Polymarket prices his exit by Dec. 31 at 47.5%.

What three of the eight articles allege, and what records show: Retaliation against Mark Kelly (Sen-D Arizona): Judge Richard Leon's preliminary First Amendment injunction (a temporary court order) documents Hegseth's censure letter and retirement-rank proceedings, but it is not a final judgment. Gutting civilian-protection programs: a May inspector general report found lost staff and halted oversight meetings, but the records do not establish the articles' claimed link to deaths in the strike on a school in Minab, Iran. Defying Congress on Iran: Congress passed a June 23 resolution directing withdrawal, but the administration calls it an unconstitutional legislative veto (an act of Congress that skips the president's signature) and says an April ceasefire ended the hostilities.

ContextFour of the 14 Senate-confirmed defense secretaries whose tenures began since 1981 and have ended left before their starting presidential term was over. They are Les Aspin, Chuck Hagel, Jim Mattis and Mark Esper, the last two under Trump. If Hegseth leaves, Deputy Secretary Steve Feinberg is first in line to act. Replacement confirmations have taken from eight days (Esper, 2019) to 50 (Hagel, 2013). U.S. national defense expenditures were $894.4 billion in FY2025 (BEA via FRED), about $871.4 billion in 2024 dollars (CPI-U adjusted).

WASHINGTON EXAMINER10 sources

6usUpdateIran war

Vance says the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms and calls for ending it and changing US ties with Israel

Trump called the post "largely true." Axios reports Vance had argued inside the White House for months for a deal to end the war.

- March 27 — Axios reported Vance had been one of the more skeptical voices before the war, and the White House floated him to lead peace talks with Iran. - April 7 — In Budapest, Vance pressed Iran to accept Trump's ceasefire demand before that night's deadline. - April 12 — After 21 hours of talks in Islamabad, Vance said Iran would not accept U.S. terms. - Oct. 19 — A day after Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, Vance declined to: "I'm not getting involved in Israeli elections."

ContextVance defended the strikes on Fox on March 2 as necessary to stop an Iranian nuclear weapon and promised no multiyear war. Trump has given no exit date. Voters calling the war crucial or major split 62% Democratic, 35% Republican. All five sitting vice presidents who sought their party's nomination from 1960 to 2024 won it.

THE ATLANTIC12 sources

Thursday · The daily brief

Nov 52026

6 leads19 briefs28 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary6 stories

News news6

  1. NBC calls 11 more House seats for Democrats on Wednesday, Nov. 4, reaching 242 to 150; Alaska and Mississippi Senate races still uncalledNBC's model still puts Democrats at 258 House seats or more, the same floor it set that morning; CBS estimates a final total of 251 to 268.
  2. Democrats post 3 investigator and counsel jobs for the Senate committee they take over in January, and warn agencies to preserve recordsRobert Garcia (Rep-D California), expected to chair the House's main investigative committee, told Trump officials to “lawyer up”; 7 in 10 voters in the AP Voter Poll say Congress is not doing enough to check presidential power.
  3. Trump weighs resuming Iran strikes, negotiating, or keeping the blockade and sanctions after the midterms, Axios reportsAxios reports the military is finishing preparations to resume major combat, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want the blockade and sanctions to play out longer.
  4. Schumer says Democrats would cut Pentagon funding if necessary to end the Iran war, predicts Republican supportDemocrats have won at least 54 Senate seats for January, six short of the 60 votes needed to pass most bills.
  5. Trump says he isn't looking to replace Defense Secretary Hegseth. CBS, ABC and the Journal report he is asking advisers whether Hegseth should stayThe Pentagon says Hegseth is “100% committed” to serving through Trump's term. Polymarket prices his exit by Dec. 31 at 47.5%.
  6. Vance says the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms and calls for ending it and changing US ties with IsraelTrump called the post "largely true." Axios reports Vance had argued inside the White House for months for a deal to end the war.

News news6 stories

Ongoing9 earlier updates43 days

This story has run 10 times over 43 days, starting Sep 23.

  1. Senate Democrats can force an Iran war powers vote this week, needing five Republican crossovers
  2. Cook Political Report now projects Republicans will lose the House, five weeks before Election Day
  3. Republicans move Senate money to defend Texas and send Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slip
  4. Cook moves Kansas Senate race to toss-up and shifts North Carolina and New Hampshire toward Democrats
  5. UpdateDemocrats' Senate Majority PAC starts $5 million Kansas ad buy against Sen. Roger Marshall
  6. Trump campaigns in Kansas on Monday, Oct. 19, as Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas) trails Democrat Adam Hamilton by under a point in one poll
  7. Over 20 million have voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%
  8. CNN polls: Democrats lead by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas; Maine and Kansas, both 49% to 45%, are statistical ties
  9. Democrats win control of the House and Senate, flipping seven Republican Senate seats
  10. UpdateNBC calls 11 more House seats for Democrats on Wednesday, Nov. 4, reaching 242 to 150; Alaska and Mississippi Senate races still uncalled — this issue
THE GUARDIANUpdateBattle for the Senate

NBC calls 11 more House seats for Democrats on Wednesday, Nov. 4, reaching 242 to 150; Alaska and Mississippi Senate races still uncalled

NBC's model still puts Democrats at 258 House seats or more, the same floor it set that morning; CBS estimates a final total of 251 to 268.

NBC News had called 242 House seats for Democrats and 150 for Republicans by 5:15 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Nov. 4, with 43 uncalled. At 9:30 a.m. ET that day, its count stood at 231 to 144, with 60 uncalled. The AP and NBC have both called House and Senate control for Democrats. Trump enters the final two years of his term facing the largest Democratic majorities in decades, PBS reported.

The Senate. Democrats hold 54 seats, seven of them taken from Republicans. The AP had still not called Alaska or Mississippi as of Wednesday night, Nov. 4. CBS rated 11 Senate races as battlegrounds and projects 10 for Democrats, with Alaska a toss-up. James Talarico is the first Democrat to win a Texas Senate seat since 1988, and Adam Hamilton the first Democrat Kansas has elected to the Senate since 1932, the Guardian noted.

The House. NBC counts a net gain of 34 seats among the races it has called: 35 taken from Republicans, minus 1 lost. Because it covers called races only, it does not equal 242 minus the 215 seats Democrats won in 2024. The New York Times projects a final split of 257 Democrats to 178 Republicans, Axios reported. Decision Desk HQ projected 27 House incumbents losing as of Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 4. Upsets included districts Trump won by double digits.

Catch upwhat happened before · 9 earlier issues
  • Sept. 27 — Cook Political Report projected Republicans would lose the House, with Democrats favored to win a slim majority.
  • Sept. 30 — Republicans moved Senate money to defend Texas and sent Trump to Ohio as Georgia and North Carolina slipped.
  • Oct. 7 — Cook moved Kansas to toss-up and projected Democrats gaining 2 to 6 Senate seats; they needed 4 for a majority.
  • Oct. 10 — Senate Majority PAC started a Kansas ad buy against Roger Marshall (Sen-R Kansas).
  • Oct. 19 — Trump campaigned in Kansas, with Marshall trailing by under a point in one poll.
  • Oct. 24 — Over 20 million people had voted early; registered Democrats cast 45% of returned ballots, Republicans 30%.
  • Oct. 30 — CNN polls showed Democrats leading by 7 in Michigan and 6 in Texas, with Maine and Kansas statistical ties.
  • Nov. 3 — Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the midterm elections.
8 earlier issues
What the new majorities can do without Republicans, and what they can'tPass a bill facing a filibuster (the Senate's way of stalling a vote): 60 votes, so six Republicans if Democrats finish with 54…3 details
  • Pass a bill facing a filibuster (the Senate's way of stalling a vote): 60 votes, so six Republicans if Democrats finish with 54 seats and stay united, or four if they finish with 56.
  • Override a Trump veto: 67 senators and 290 representatives if all vote, so 11 to 13 Republican senators and 22 to 39 House Republicans.
  • Confirm or reject Trump's nominees, including Cabinet officials and Supreme Court justices: a simple majority, so no Republicans.
TIMEUpdate

Democrats post 3 investigator and counsel jobs for the Senate committee they take over in January, and warn agencies to preserve records

Robert Garcia (Rep-D California), expected to chair the House's main investigative committee, told Trump officials to “lawyer up”; 7 in 10 voters in the AP Voter Poll say Congress is not doing enough to check presidential power.

Democrats began preparing to investigate the Trump administration within a day of their midterm wins on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Their subpoena threats cannot be carried out until the new Congress is seated in January.

The jobs. Listings on the Senate Employment Office site sought investigators and counsel for the “incoming Chair” of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee less than 24 hours after the election. The Washington Examiner counted 3 openings. Rand Paul (Sen-R Kentucky) chairs the committee until January. The listings name no senator, but applications go to an address labeled “NewEnglandDemSenator,” and Maggie Hassan (Sen-D New Hampshire) is in line to take the gavel, Mother Jones reported.

The letter. Bobby Scott (Rep-D Virginia) led Democrats in writing to department and agency heads. They cited the Federal Records Act of 1950, the law that governs how agencies keep official records, and warned of criminal penalties for failing to preserve them.

The targets. Possible subjects include the Epstein files, Elon Musk, the Iran war and Trump's business interests. Ron Wyden (Sen-D Oregon) posted one word on X: “Subpoenas.”

The companies. “Companies are not waiting for inquiries to begin, for very good reason,” said Jamie Gorelick of the law firm WilmerHale. “We are preparing multiple clients as we speak.”

The leader. Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York), the House Democratic leader, told TODAY the “American people clearly don't want us to try and get even.” He stressed affordability alongside accountability.

What next. Scott's letter, dated Nov. 4, asks agencies for written assurance by Nov. 18 that records have not been and will not be hidden, altered or destroyed.

After their Nov. 3 midterm wins, Democrats named the Trump family business, DOGE, immigration enforcement and the Epstein files as investigation targets. They also previewed subpoenas of Trump officials and corporations.

What past contempt fights won, and how long they tookHarriet Miers and Joshua Bolten: most requested documents came in a settlement almost two years after the subpoenas, under a new…2 details
  • Harriet Miers and Joshua Bolten: most requested documents came in a settlement almost two years after the subpoenas, under a new president and Congress
  • William Barr and Wilbur Ross: referred in 2019; key documents arrived in January 2022

Red take

Democrats named their targets before they had a case. Less than 24 hours after the election, a Senate committee was advertising for investigators, and Ron Wyden, the Oregon senator, had posted one word: "Subpoenas." Oversight that starts from a list instead of evidence teaches every new majority to hunt its rivals. Voters pay for it, getting probes in place of the affordability work that Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, stressed.

Blue take

A shredded record cannot be subpoenaed, so Democrats are right not to wait for January. Congress needed almost two years to get most of the documents it sought from Harriet Miers and Joshua Bolten, White House officials. Bobby Scott, the Virginia Democrat, now wants written assurance by Nov. 18 that nothing has been hidden, altered or destroyed. Any Iran war record lost before January is gone for good, and the public never learns what it showed.

Ongoing32 earlier updates57 days

This story has run 33 times over 57 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. UpdateBrent oil exceeds $100 a barrel; US diesel reaches $5.94 a gallon
  3. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  4. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  5. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  6. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  7. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  8. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  9. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  10. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  11. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  12. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  13. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  14. Chris Murphy (Sen-D Connecticut) says Pentagon is hiding Iran war damage and a deal isn't imminent
  15. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  16. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  17. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  18. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13
  19. Houthi strike damages 3 floors of Aramco's Dhahran headquarters, including executive offices; no casualties
  20. Brent crude touches $110 a barrel, its first time there since May 20, after Saudi-led forces intercept missiles aimed at energy hubs
  21. Iran is giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for their strikes on Saudi Arabia, WSJ reports
  22. Judge jails ex-OpenAI engineer accused of bugging executives; prosecutors say Saudi official flew his family out
  23. UpdateBrent crude tops $111 a barrel, its highest since May, after Iran and the Houthis claim attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites
  24. UpdateState Department orders non-emergency U.S. staff and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi attacks on airports and oil sites
  25. Brent crude hits $116-117 a barrel Friday, Oct. 23, on fears the Iran war escalates again
  26. UpdateU.S. cuts staff at embassies in Jordan, Lebanon, Qatar and the UAE after intelligence chief says Iranian plots to kill Americans are at 'advanced stages'
  27. UpdateTrump says it's 'decision time' on Iran: a deal, or resumed attacks to 'finish it off'
  28. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani envoys meet Iran's security chiefs in Tehran to push for a U.S.-Iran deal
  29. Qatar-led mediators urge Iran to admit UN inspectors for partial U.S. sanctions relief; U.S. and Israeli officials expect a week of strikes after the midterms without a deal
  30. UpdateQatari mediators return to Tehran to push an interim U.S.-Iran deal as Trump says the war will end 'soon'
  31. UpdateIran says it can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if the U.S. lifts sanctions and its port blockade; the U.S. strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump says there's 'no rush' to decide on resuming the war
  32. UpdateIran says mines destroyed four tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which the BBC has not verified; Trump says the war cost Republican votes but he does not regret it
  33. UpdateTrump weighs resuming Iran strikes, negotiating, or keeping the blockade and sanctions after the midterms, Axios reports — this issue
AXIOSUpdateIran war

Trump weighs resuming Iran strikes, negotiating, or keeping the blockade and sanctions after the midterms, Axios reports

Axios reports the military is finishing preparations to resume major combat, while CIA Director John Ratcliffe and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent want the blockade and sanctions to play out longer.

The choice. With the Tuesday, Nov. 3 midterm elections (the vote for Congress held midway through a president's term) over, Trump has three options on Iran, Axios reports: resume strikes, negotiate from a weakened position, or "strangle" Iran through the naval blockade and sanctions.

Trump's answer. Asked when he will end the war, he said: "Whenever I wanted to. But it's got to be done right, because they can't have a nuclear weapon."

The Gulf. Diplomats and business leaders in the Persian Gulf fear the war could escalate now that the U.S. election is over, the Los Angeles Times reports.

"It's one thing to lose the midterms. But Trump doesn't want to look like a loser twice."a former Trump adviser, to Axios

Still open. Even close aides are unsure which option he will pick, Axios reports.

Catch upwhat happened before · 32 earlier issues
  • By Oct. 18 — The Wall Street Journal reported Iran was giving the Houthis targeting and intelligence help for strikes on Saudi Arabia.
  • Oct. 21 — Iran and the Houthis claimed attacks on Gulf ships and Saudi oil sites.
  • By Oct. 22 — The State Department ordered non-emergency staff and families out of Saudi Arabia.
  • Oct. 23 — Brent crude closed at $116.72 a barrel, its highest since April 29, Reuters reported. A memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton said Iranian plots to kill Americans had reached "advanced stages," naming no targets, Axios reported.
  • By Oct. 26 — Trump called it "decision time": a deal, or resumed attacks to "finish it off."
  • Late Oct. — Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Qatari envoys pressed Tehran for a deal while U.S. and Israeli officials expected a week of post-election strikes without one.
  • Nov. 2-3 — The U.S. struck Iran's Qeshm Island; Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if sanctions and the port blockade ended.
  • Nov. 4 — Iran's Revolutionary Guards said mines destroyed four tankers in the strait; BBC Verify found no evidence that they were.
31 earlier issues
What would separate a resumed war from a dealClear signals: an official announcement of direct U.S.-Iran talks, with named participants and a date, would point to a deal.3 details
  • Clear signals: an official announcement of direct U.S.-Iran talks, with named participants and a date, would point to a deal. Public confirmation of an order to resume major combat would point to war. Neither has been announced.
  • Not a clear signal: more aircraft carriers. The USS Theodore Roosevelt's deployment was reported in October while diplomacy continued.
  • Not a clear signal: one more limited strike. U.S. officials called the Nov. 2 Qeshm Island strikes defensive and distinct from resuming major combat.

Red take

Trump should keep the blockade and sanctions, because Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days is ransom. An Oct. 23 U.S. intelligence memo said Iranian plots to kill Americans had reached "advanced stages," and a government doing that should not be paid. Drop the pressure for open water, and Trump gives up his leverage behind "they can't have a nuclear weapon," while Tehran learns that menacing shipping pays.

Blue take

Trump should open direct talks with Iran, because he accepts what this war cost: he calls Vice President JD Vance's verdict that it lost Republicans the election "largely true." Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Qatari envoys have pressed Tehran for a deal, which gives him a way out. Without talks, oil buyers stay hostage to a war that pushed Brent crude to a $116.72 close on Oct. 23, and the Gulf gets the escalation it fears.

THE HILLIran war

Schumer says Democrats would cut Pentagon funding if necessary to end the Iran war, predicts Republican support

Democrats have won at least 54 Senate seats for January, six short of the 60 votes needed to pass most bills.

Chuck Schumer (Sen-D New York), the Senate's Democratic leader, said Democrats would use the “power of the purse” (Congress's control over federal spending) to starve the Defense Department of funding if necessary to end the Iran war, which began in February. He said some Senate Republicans favor ending the war as soon as possible and predicted they would support the effort. The reports name no Republican backers and no bill.

Still open. Whether Democrats will write a funding ban, and what it would cover.

BackgroundWhat a Pentagon cutoff would need in votes, and where it worked4 facts
  • Withholding new war money needs no presidential signature, but an enacted ban on spending needs Trump's signature or a veto override.
  • Thirteen Republicans would have to join a united Democratic bloc to override a Trump veto if all 100 senators vote; the House would also need a two-thirds vote.
  • Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska), Rand Paul (Sen-R Kentucky) and Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) backed a September withdrawal measure, but that was not a vote to cut funding.
  • Congress has clearly forced an end to bombing once: the cutoff of money for bombing Cambodia became law July 1, 1973, and the bombing stopped Aug. 15, 45 days later.
WASHINGTON EXAMINERHegseth's Pentagon

Trump says he isn't looking to replace Defense Secretary Hegseth. CBS, ABC and the Journal report he is asking advisers whether Hegseth should stay

The Pentagon says Hegseth is “100% committed” to serving through Trump's term. Polymarket prices his exit by Dec. 31 at 47.5%.

In public. Trump said Wednesday, Nov. 4, the day after Republican midterm losses, that he is not looking to replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who he said is doing a “very good job.” ABC quotes him as saying “a great job.” He also predicted Hegseth would be “very popular” in Tennessee, where Marsha Blackburn (Sen-R Tennessee) will vacate her Senate seat after winning Tennessee's governor's race on Tuesday, Nov. 3. The Hill has reported that Hegseth wants the seat.

In private. CBS, ABC and The Wall Street Journal report that Trump has asked advisers or allies whether Hegseth should stay. One CBS source says Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is being floated as a replacement.

The war. The Iran war has killed more than 20 U.S. service members and cost an estimated $47 billion, a figure the Washington Examiner says is believed to be an undercount. All national defense spending ran $894.4 billion in fiscal 2025.

The Republicans. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) told CBS “Hegseth has a reckoning,” and Fox News says he is urging Trump to replace him. Tillis also says Hegseth's strained relations with lawmakers are undermining a $1.5 trillion defense package. The reporting names no vote he has threatened to withhold. A Republican close to the White House told CNN: “Pete has been either dishonest or incorrect – neither of which are acceptable – about timelines, goals and objectives since the beginning.”

What next. Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) plans to force a House vote on eight impeachment articles (formal charges that, if passed, send an official to a Senate trial). His Sept. 15 notice gave the House two legislative days to act. Republican leaders canceled the Sept. 17 votes, pushing it past the election. The House is scheduled back Monday, Nov. 9, and can table the articles (set them aside) without voting on the charges.

What three of the eight articles allege, and what records showRetaliation against Mark Kelly (Sen-D Arizona): Judge Richard Leon's preliminary First Amendment injunction (a temporary court…3 details
  • Retaliation against Mark Kelly (Sen-D Arizona): Judge Richard Leon's preliminary First Amendment injunction (a temporary court order) documents Hegseth's censure letter and retirement-rank proceedings, but it is not a final judgment.
  • Gutting civilian-protection programs: a May inspector general report found lost staff and halted oversight meetings, but the records do not establish the articles' claimed link to deaths in the strike on a school in Minab, Iran.
  • Defying Congress on Iran: Congress passed a June 23 resolution directing withdrawal, but the administration calls it an unconstitutional legislative veto (an act of Congress that skips the president's signature) and says an April ceasefire ended the hostilities.
Ongoing7 earlier updates22 days

This story has run 8 times over 22 days, starting Oct 14.

  1. Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports
  2. UpdateTrump endorses Netanyahu, saying the US will hit Iran itself if Israelis pick anyone else
  3. UpdateVance says he won't endorse Netanyahu in Israel's Oct. 27 election, a day after Trump did
  4. UpdateU.S. and Israel have drawn up plans for possible new strikes on Iran after the Nov. 3 midterms, NYT reports
  5. UpdateTwo Israeli sources tell ABC that joint strikes on Iran will almost certainly come soon after the Nov. 3 midterms
  6. UpdateIsrael's military chief resisted Netanyahu's push for an Iran strike before the Oct. 27 vote, officials say
  7. Trump says the U.S. will end its nearly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel by year's end
  8. UpdateVance says the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms and calls for ending it and changing US ties with Israel — this issue
THE ATLANTICUpdateIran war

Vance says the Iran war cost Republicans the midterms and calls for ending it and changing US ties with Israel

Trump called the post "largely true." Axios reports Vance had argued inside the White House for months for a deal to end the war.

The post. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on Wednesday, Nov. 4, the day after Republicans lost the midterms, that "the reason we lost is the war." Politico reports he drafted the 614-word post himself and gave the White House advance notice.

"If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so."JD Vance on X

The endorsement. Donald Trump Jr. quickly endorsed it: "Every word of this is 💯💯💯."

What Vance said would win voters back:

  • End the Iran war
  • Focus on the cost of living and inflation
  • Put America first
  • Change the relationship with Israel

Still open. Trump says he does not know whether Vance will run in 2028.

Catch upwhat happened before · 7 earlier issues
  • March 27 — Axios reported Vance had been one of the more skeptical voices before the war, and the White House floated him to lead peace talks with Iran.
  • April 7 — In Budapest, Vance pressed Iran to accept Trump's ceasefire demand before that night's deadline.
  • April 12 — After 21 hours of talks in Islamabad, Vance said Iran would not accept U.S. terms.
  • Oct. 19 — A day after Trump endorsed Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister, Vance declined to: "I'm not getting involved in Israeli elections."
6 earlier issues

Quick bites17

What Democratic control changes2 bites

  1. Democrats pledge to restore enhanced ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts, but any law needs Trump's signature or a two-thirds veto override

    AXIOSMedicaid and ACA cuts

    Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York), the House Democratic leader, told CNN on Wednesday, Nov. 4, that Democrats should bring back the enhanced ACA subsidies, KFF Health News reported. Those subsidies expired at the end of 2025. Democrats also want to undo the Medicaid cuts in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that law cuts federal Medicaid spending by $911 billion over 10 years. Two Democratic aides told The Washington Post both pushes would come early next year.

    An 84-page memo from House Democrats' health working group to Jeffries envisions year-one votes on Medicare for All, a public option and a Medicare buy-in for many under 65, Axios reported.

    What else is in playOverriding a veto takes two-thirds of each chamber.4 details
    • Overriding a veto takes two-thirds of each chamber. Larry Levitt of KFF told NBC News that Trump is bound to veto bills rolling back the Medicaid cuts.
    • Trump told Politico: "I don't want to just be sitting there for two years vetoing everything."
    • Democrats also plan oversight of Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s vaccine policies and Trump's drug pricing deals, per NBC News.
    • John Barkett, a former Biden White House adviser, told NBC News to expect "a lot of farming" next Congress, with messaging votes and groundwork for 2028.
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 35 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. Federal Medicaid funding ends Oct. 1 for refugees, asylees and other legal immigrants without green cards; nine states and DC count 281,000 losing coverage
    2. Medicaid ended Oct. 1 for refugees, asylees and other legal immigrants without green cards under Trump's 2025 law; states flagged more than 281,000
    3. Democrats pledge to restore enhanced ACA subsidies and reverse Medicaid cuts, but any law needs Trump's signature or a two-thirds veto override — this issue

  2. New Democratic Senate majority likely keeps Trump from replacing Thomas or Alito, conservatives warn

    BLOOMBERGAlito's retirement

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, put the chance of confirming a successor to Clarence Thomas, 78, or Samuel Alito, 76, during Trump's term at "Zero," and Bloomberg says Trump has probably appointed his last justice.

    Also on the courtConservative Ed Whelan says Republicans might not regain the Senate and be able to seat judges until 2033.3 details
    • Conservative Ed Whelan says Republicans might not regain the Senate and be able to seat judges until 2033.
    • Alito told CBS News on Oct. 4 that he weighs retiring every year.
    • Republicans keep the Senate majority until the new Congress convenes Jan. 3, 2027, so a seat that opened now could still be filled in the lame-duck session.
Markets react to the election2 bites

  1. Dow closes up 1,569 points, or 3%, on Wednesday, Nov. 4 after Democrats won control of Congress

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The S&P 500 closed up 1.58%, per CNBC. Markets "like gridlock," said Andrew Slimmon of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, per CNBC. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.89% from 4.97% at the close on Tuesday, Nov. 3, Investopedia reported. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index also dropped, per CNBC.

    Who movedSolar stocks, dollar stores and hospital owners helped lead the gains, per AP.2 details
    • Solar stocks, dollar stores and hospital owners helped lead the gains, per AP.
    • AP said investors see risks for Trump's social-media company, AI firms and Elon Musk's companies; Musk donated heavily to Republicans.

  2. Brent crude settles at $94.62, lowest since Aug. 31, as analysts say traders bet the election will push Trump to de-escalate on Iran

    NBC NEWSFuel prices

    Brent settled at $94.62 a barrel on Wednesday, Nov. 4, down $8.98 and its lowest close since Aug. 31, Reuters reported. It had traded as high as $118 on Friday, Oct. 30, NBC News reported. U.S. crude settled at $88.12. Gas averaged $4.12 that morning, 39% above its level before the war began Feb. 28.

    What traders are pricingNBC News reported trading desks were watching for signs the Tuesday, Nov. 3 results would push Trump to end the war without a…3 details
    • NBC News reported trading desks were watching for signs the Tuesday, Nov. 3 results would push Trump to end the war without a major escalation.
    • Ben Cahill of the Atlantic Council said the drop is "entirely about the U.S. election" and that a statement from JD Vance "amplified that sentiment."
    • Pavel Molchanov of Raymond James said a lasting decline needs "a durable off-ramp"; another analyst told Axios gas could fall below $4 within days.
The race for House leadership2 bites

  1. Mike Johnson won't run for minority leader; Scalise and Jordan expected to compete Nov. 10

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Steve Scalise (Rep-R Louisiana) and Jim Jordan (Rep-R Ohio) are set for a secret ballot. AP says Johnson, just elected to a 6th term, is expected to stay as a rank-and-file member; other outlets say that is unclear.

  2. Hakeem Jeffries (Rep-D New York) asks House Democrats to elect him speaker; no rival has emerged, Politico reports

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    Some incoming progressives and red-district Democrats have not committed before the Jan. 3, 2027 floor vote, but the party's large majority makes holdouts unlikely to matter, per the Washington Examiner.

    On Nov. 4, after Democrats won the House, NBC and other outlets reported that Jeffries was in line to become the first Black speaker.

    The bid and the leadership slateJeffries's letter names 3 priorities: affordability, accountability and American values.3 details
    • Jeffries's letter names 3 priorities: affordability, accountability and American values.
    • Jeffries told reporters he anticipates 255 or more Democratic House seats next year.
    • Katherine Clark (Rep-D Massachusetts) is expected to run for majority leader and Pete Aguilar (Rep-D California) for majority whip.
Also tonight3 bites

  1. Israel would need about $10 billion beyond 2028 aid to pay for outstanding U.S. arms orders, complicating Trump's cutoff, WSJ reports

    THE WALL STREET JOURNALUpdate

    Beyond U.S. aid already pledged through 2028, Israel would need about $10 billion to pay for its arms orders outstanding as of April 1, The Wall Street Journal reports. The figure comes from a State Department letter to Rep. Joaquin Castro (Rep-D Texas). The letter says U.S. aid, Israeli funds or both could cover it. Michigan's Democratic senator-elect, Abdul El-Sayed, welcomed Trump's plan and wants arms sales ended too, NPR reports.

    On Tuesday, Nov. 3, Trump told Fox News the U.S. would end its nearly $4 billion a year in military aid to Israel by year's end. The aid runs under a $38 billion, 10-year deal through 2028.

  2. Trump says Republicans would have won 'in a landslide' had he been on the ballot

    BBC NEWSUpdate

    Trump said "we weren't able to transfer the love" to candidates at a ceremony for the White House ballroom's final steel beam on Wednesday, Nov. 4. Fox News called it his first public appearance since the losses. He said gas prices from the Iran war hurt, but that he would do it again. On election night, he wrote on Truth Social that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott "wouldn't have lost" if he hadn't "become a RINO" in the last six months.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Oct. 23: Trump said he ordered DOJ's suit to block Alaska from certifying a loss by Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska): "I'm the one that said do it."
    • Nov. 1: A federal judge dismissed the suit; DOJ said it would appeal.
    • Nov. 2: On the eve of the vote, Trump touted his $14 million Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool renovation at a press conference there.
    • Nov. 3: Final forecasts favored Democrats to win both chambers, with Nate Silver's model at 95% for the House and 80% for the Senate.
    • Nov. 3, election night: Trump said he would accept the results, blamed Republican candidates and threatened to veto Democratic bills, in interviews with The New York Times, CBS News and Fox News.

  3. Democrats promise hearings and investigations of tech companies after winning Congress

    THE WASHINGTON POST

    Democrats are promising hearings and investigations of tech companies, The Washington Post reported. A broad federal AI law would still need Republican votes to overcome a veto, TIME noted. In NBC's exit poll, 56% of voters called AI and data centers a "crucial or major factor" in their congressional vote.

    Money and subpoenasDemocrats spent more than $100 million on broadcast ads casting opponents as too cozy with Big Tech and data centers, per TIME.2 details
    • Democrats spent more than $100 million on broadcast ads casting opponents as too cozy with Big Tech and data centers, per TIME.
    • Ed Markey (Sen-D Massachusetts), replying to a post calling for televised trials of Big Tech executives: "They are going to need to plant new forests for all of the subpoenas we'll be printing."
Elections8 bites

  1. Democrat Scott Colom leads Cindy Hyde-Smith (Sen-R Mississippi) by 1,138 votes with 96% counted

    TIMEUpdate

    Colom's lead grew from a few dozen votes on the morning of Wednesday, Nov. 4, to 1,138 by that evening. ABC News had him at 464,926 to 463,788 at 7:26 p.m. ET, and AP had not called the race. Mississippi has no formal recount, so any dispute would go to a ballot-box exam and the courts.

    On Oct. 21, Axios reported that Senate Republicans were weighing late spending to protect Hyde-Smith. Trump rallied for her in Corinth on Monday, Oct. 26. Mississippi last elected a Democratic senator in 1982.

    What could still move the countFox estimates 44,000 ballots are outstanding; Colom's campaign manager thinks about 15,000 provisional ballots remain, and the…2 details
    • Fox estimates 44,000 ballots are outstanding; Colom's campaign manager thinks about 15,000 provisional ballots remain, and the secretary of state gives no definitive number.
    • Mail ballots postmarked by Election Day can arrive through Nov. 10, and Mississippi's certification deadline is Nov. 13.

  2. Democrat Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan (Sen-R Alaska) by 637 first-choice votes with 74% counted

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateAlaska Senate race

    If no one wins a majority, the ranked-choice count runs Nov. 18, 15 days after the election. A Sullivan campaign memo projects he would then win by 328 votes, 105,037 to 104,709. The memo counts only ballots in hand on Wednesday, Nov. 4. The AP estimated roughly 75,000 were still uncounted, Alaska News reported.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • July 2 — NBC News reported federal and state prosecutors were investigating whether a second Dan Sullivan's Senate run was a plot to confuse voters.
    • Oct. 22 — DOJ sued to block certification if Sen. Sullivan narrowly lost and votes for the second Sullivan could have decided it.
    • Oct. 26 — Retired teacher Daniel J. Sullivan called the suit a "gross misuse," and Alaska's Republican-led state government asked the judge to end it.
    • Oct. 28 — The New York Times reported Peltola campaign staff and national Democrats helped recruit him; both deny it, and the main source had tried to retract her interviews before publication.
    • Oct. 29 — Alaska's governor ordered a state criminal probe.
    • Oct. 30 — U.S. Attorney Michael Heyman confirmed a federal criminal probe under way for several months; DOJ sought sworn answers from Peltola's campaign and Senate Democrats' campaign arm.
    • Nov. 1 — Judge Sharon Gleason dismissed DOJ's certification suit; DOJ said it would appeal.
    • Nov. 3 — ABC News reported DOJ had issued at least 20 target letters and preservation notices, including one to Democratic lawyer Marc Elias.
    The count and the federal probeABC News had Peltola at 102,962 and Sullivan at 102,325 at 7:26 p.m.3 details
    • ABC News had Peltola at 102,962 and Sullivan at 102,325 at 7:26 p.m. ET Wednesday, Nov. 4. The Washington Examiner's 626-vote figure, 102,701 to 102,075, came from the state's 2:19 a.m. report that day.
    • Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., the second Sullivan on the ballot, has more than 3,500 first-choice votes.
    • Attorney General Todd Blanche said Sullivan "could lose, but really he didn't lose" if name confusion swung the result; DOJ gave no new probe details.

  3. Voters passed data center restrictions in about 10 states; only Harwood, North Dakota, backed a project

    CBS NEWSData centers

    The Washington Examiner, citing Ballotpedia, tracked 41 data center measures in 10 states as of Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 4. Of the measures that would restrict data centers, only Harwood's was set to fail. All 13 that would ease development were on track to fail.

    • Ohio had 21 of the 41 measures, more than half the national total, per the Washington Examiner.
    • Alhambra, California, backed a data center ban with 81.84% of the vote as of Wednesday, Nov. 4, per the Washington Examiner.
    • GLJ Research's Gordon Johnson says Gina Hinojosa's win for Texas governor could stall 13 gigawatts of data center power additions. Texas accounts for 25% to 30% of capacity due online by 2030, per Yorkville Ives analyst Dan Ives.

  4. Democrats won full control of five state governments and flipped the Texas House

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Democrats won full control of state government in Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They also broke full Republican control in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, where Republicans held the state Senate.

    Scale of the shiftDemocrats have flipped 12 legislative chambers so far, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee says.3 details
    • Democrats have flipped 12 legislative chambers so far, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee says.
    • Wisconsin Democrats last held full control 16 years ago. Pennsylvania Democrats last held it in 1993.
    • The Washington Examiner counts Arizona as a sixth state on track for full Democratic control. Democrats last controlled its legislature 60 years ago.

  5. Democrats flip five GOP-held governorships, winning a majority; outlets count 27 to 29

    THE NEW YORK TIMESUpdate

    Wins in Texas, Iowa, Georgia, Nevada and Ohio erased a 26-24 GOP edge; the Times counts 29 Democratic governors, Fox 28 with Kansas and Alaska uncalled, and PBS at least 27.

    On Nov. 3, voters gave Democrats their first majority of governorships in 16 years.

    The races behind the countTexas: Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative, led Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, 53.8% to 44.9%, per the Washington…2 details
    • Texas: Democrat Gina Hinojosa, a state representative, led Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican, 53.8% to 44.9%, per the Washington Examiner; Abbott said he could not win.
    • Kansas: Democrat Cindy Holscher led Republican Ty Masterson by 7,045 votes, 549,974 to 542,929, on the night of Wednesday, Nov. 4, and AP had not called the race, per the Kansas Reflector.

  6. Republicans redrew maps to gain 15 seats; Axios has them on track to lose up to 8

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdateRedistricting fights

    Axios says mapmakers bet on a 2024-style electorate, but voters behaved more like they did in 2020 or even 2018. In Missouri, courts and voters also scuttled the new map.

    Trump pushed GOP-led states to draw new House lines mid-decade. On Nov. 4, Axios had the GOP winning just 1 of the 9 districts it targeted in Florida and Texas.

    Where the maps failedFlorida: Democrats won at least 3 of 4 redrawn seats, and Darren Soto (Rep-D Florida) narrowly leads the fourth.2 details
    • Florida: Democrats won at least 3 of 4 redrawn seats, and Darren Soto (Rep-D Florida) narrowly leads the fourth.
    • TX-15: Monica De La Cruz (Rep-R Texas) lost a Trump +18 seat by 25 points, per Axios.

  7. Latino men moved from 54%-44% Republican in 2024 to 58%-39% Democratic, NBC exit poll shows

    NBC NEWSUpdate

    NBC's 2026 figures are from its 10:57 p.m. ET update on Wednesday, Nov. 4; an earlier version showed 56%-41%. Fox's voter poll shows similar moves. Rural voters' Republican House margin fell to 18 points from Trump's 28 in 2024. Hispanic voters' Democratic margin rose to 27 from Harris's 12.

    On Nov. 4, the AP Voter Poll found about three-quarters of midterm voters rated the economy negatively. Two-thirds said Trump's policies had made it worse.

    Other voter poll findingsYoung voters: 73% of voters aged 18-29 backed Democrats, per the NBC exit poll; the AP Voter Poll found about 7 in 10.3 details
    • Young voters: 73% of voters aged 18-29 backed Democrats, per the NBC exit poll; the AP Voter Poll found about 7 in 10.
    • Suburban women: their Democratic House margin was 24 points, up from 14 for Harris, per Fox.
    • Prices: 63% blamed Trump's policies more than outside factors, per NBC and PBS.

  8. Voters back abortion rights in three of four states, Virginia 62-38; voter ID measures split 3-3

    NPR

    Virginia (62-38) and Nevada (63% with 85% of votes in) added abortion rights to their constitutions and Missouri refused to strip them, while 56% in Idaho voted down a right through viability.

    • Voters approved voter ID amendments in Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio and defeated them in Arizona, California and Colorado, Ballotpedia reports.
    • Washington voters declined to repeal the state's 9.9% tax on annual income over $1 million.
    • California's Proposition 40, a billionaire tax, trailed by about 11 points with 60% of the vote counted as of Wednesday afternoon, Nov. 4.

Elections2 races

2 closest races

  • sAlaska governor99.6%Wilson 0.28%Begich 0.05%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    A dead heat — the two sides are priced within a point of each other, after Wilson lost about eleven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Nov 4, 10:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.50%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • rAlaska SenateMary Peltola 93.60%▲24.5Sullivan 5.95%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Sullivan is down about 25 points.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Nov 4, 10:21 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 94.1%, Kalshi 93.1%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 5.95%, Kalshi 5.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Nov 4, 10:21 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.