Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Tuesday

Washington Examiner
1usUpdatecontestedCourts and the adminis…

Supreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate suit; Roberts, Gorsuch and Barrett press the companies

The Trump administration argued for the oil companies, and several justices asked whether the court can review the unfinished case at all.

On Sept. 28, the Court's clerk told lawyers that Justice Samuel Alito would sit out the case, leaving eight justices to decide whether Colorado climate-damage suits against Exxon and Suncor can proceed. On Oct. 3, Alito, 76, said in a CBS interview that he weighed retiring after last term and will reconsider every year.

ContextBoulder sued Exxon Mobil and Suncor in 2018 under Colorado state law, about eight years before Monday's argument (Oct. 5). The complaint cites more than 700,000 acres of Colorado land hit by a mountain pine beetle outbreak. The Colorado Supreme Court let the suit go forward. The companies say federal law blocks it. The justices also asked both sides a narrower question: whether the court has jurisdiction (the legal power to hear the case) to review the Colorado ruling at all while the suit is still at an early stage. With Justice Samuel Alito recused, a 4-4 tie would leave the Colorado ruling in place, and Boulder's suit would proceed.

CBS NEWS10 sources

2usUpdateIran war

Trump says threats drove all 12 B-1 bombers out of a UK base, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotation

U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal the threat was an Iranian plot to hit the jets with drones and kill American pilots.

- Sun., Sept. 27 — British counterterrorism police arrested five UK men with three vans in Whelford, about 2 miles from the RAF Fairford runway. - Wed., Sept. 30 — Police said the vans held petrol, not explosives, freed the five on bail, and complained that U.S. commentary was stoking fear. - Thu., Oct. 1 — Police arrested a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old British-Iranian, in Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts. - Sat., Oct. 3 — He was released on bail too, leaving all six suspects free. - Sun., Oct. 4 — The Pentagon flew every deployed B-1 home without giving a reason; one U.S. official cited an Iranian threat to the base.

ContextThe U.S. sent home the 12 B-1 bombers it had at RAF Fairford, every one deployed there, though The Guardian counts at least 10. British police have arrested six people in the Fairford investigation. Five U.K. nationals were picked up with three vans on Sunday, Sept. 27, in Whelford, a village about 2 miles from the base. A British-Iranian dual national was arrested Thursday, Oct. 1. All six have been released on bail. Asked whether Iran had smuggled attack drones into Britain, Trump said, "If they did, they'll suffer greatly." David Dunn, a University of Birmingham professor, called the pullout "historic, unprecedented, and an indication of the sense of vulnerability" of U.S. forces abroad.

BBC NEWS11 sources

3uscontested

Trump signs order easing limits on tax-exempt red diesel, which skips the 24.4-cent federal road-fuel tax

The order also tells the Transportation Department to work with states on waiving their own diesel taxes; only Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky have suspended theirs.

Road diesel carries a federal highway tax of 24.4 cents a gallon, about 4 percent of the $6.32 national average the Washington Examiner reported on Monday, Oct. 5. That price sat just below the $6.38 weekly average the Energy Information Administration posted for Sept. 28. So far, only three states, Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky, have paused their own diesel taxes.

ContextRoad diesel carries a federal highway tax of 24.4 cents a gallon, about 4 percent of the $6.32 national average the Washington Examiner reported on Monday, Oct. 5. That price sat just below the $6.38 weekly average the Energy Information Administration posted for Sept. 28. So far, only three states, Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky, have paused their own diesel taxes.

BLOOMBERG6 sources

4us

US monitors suspected pneumonic plague death of a 28-year-old Siberian lab worker; Trump offers Russia help

Russia lists the cause as pneumonia of undetermined origin, but has quarantined a hospital and put nearly 200 contacts under watch.

Pneumonic plague is the form of the bacterial disease that infects the lungs. Russia's official cause of death is pneumonia of undetermined origin. Officials say tests found no microbes tied to her lab work in her samples, and no other institute staff have reported illness. Even so, a hospital is under quarantine. Russian media report that nearly 200 people who had contact with her are under medical watch. Ashish Jha, the former White House Covid coordinator, said a lab would worry him far more if it ran biological weapons programs.

ContextPneumonic plague is the form of the bacterial disease that infects the lungs. Russia's official cause of death is pneumonia of undetermined origin. Officials say tests found no microbes tied to her lab work in her samples, and no other institute staff have reported illness. Even so, a hospital is under quarantine. Russian media report that nearly 200 people who had contact with her are under medical watch. Ashish Jha, the former White House Covid coordinator, said a lab would worry him far more if it ran biological weapons programs.

TIME11 sources

5not newslongform

Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026

The fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ran a deficit of about $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, per a preliminary Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate.

Of the total, $32.3 trillion, about 100% of GDP, is held by the public: Treasury bills, notes and bonds sold to banks, pension funds, the Federal Reserve and foreign governments. The rest is owed to federal trust funds such as Social Security and Medicare, an internal IOU that does not borrow from private markets.

ContextTreasury's $40.2 trillion gross debt works out to $117,208 for every U.S. resident, and it equaled 122% of GDP in 2025. Debt held by the public, which skips what Washington owes its own trust funds, is $32.3 trillion, about 100% of GDP. The fiscal 2026 deficit, about $2 trillion or roughly 6.2% of GDP by a preliminary estimate, is just one year's gap between spending and revenue, while the debt is the running total of every past gap. CBO expects gross debt to reach $43.3 trillion by the end of 2028.

REASON2 sources

6not newslongform

Pentagon says it has stopped using Anthropic's Claude AI, after missing its own late-August phase-out deadline

People familiar with the matter say Claude was still used in Iran operations as recently as last week; Google, xAI and OpenAI now hold Pentagon AI contracts.

Where Claude ran inside Pentagon systems before the ban: Claude ran inside the Maven Smart System, Palantir's intelligence and targeting platform, analyzing satellite, drone and signals data. Maven's five-year contract ceiling grew from $480 million to $1.275 billion, as planned users grew from hundreds to thousands. Anthropic was the first frontier AI company deployed on classified U.S. government networks, starting in June 2024.

ContextA supply-chain risk label marks a vendor as unsafe to build into defense systems. It has historically been reserved for foreign-linked firms such as Russia's Kaspersky and China's Huawei and ZTE. Anthropic's Pentagon deal carried a $200 million two-year ceiling, the same as Google's, OpenAI's and xAI's. For scale, U.S. national defense spending ran $894.4 billion in fiscal 2025 (about $871.4 billion in 2024 dollars). On Sept. 25, a divided panel of the D.C. Circuit, the federal appeals court in Washington, sided with the Pentagon 2–1. Anthropic's challenge to the label continues.

BBC NEWS1 source

Tuesday · The daily brief

Oct 62026

6 leads33 briefs18 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary6 stories

News news4

  1. Supreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate suit; Roberts, Gorsuch and Barrett press the companiesThe Trump administration argued for the oil companies, and several justices asked whether the court can review the unfinished case at all.
  2. Trump says threats drove all 12 B-1 bombers out of a UK base, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotationU.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal the threat was an Iranian plot to hit the jets with drones and kill American pilots.
  3. Trump signs order easing limits on tax-exempt red diesel, which skips the 24.4-cent federal road-fuel taxThe order also tells the Transportation Department to work with states on waiving their own diesel taxes; only Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky have suspended theirs.
  4. US monitors suspected pneumonic plague death of a 28-year-old Siberian lab worker; Trump offers Russia helpRussia lists the cause as pneumonia of undetermined origin, but has quarantined a hospital and put nearly 200 contacts under watch.

Not news news2

  1. Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026The fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ran a deficit of about $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, per a preliminary Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate.
  2. Pentagon says it has stopped using Anthropic's Claude AI, after missing its own late-August phase-out deadlinePeople familiar with the matter say Claude was still used in Iran operations as recently as last week; Google, xAI and OpenAI now hold Pentagon AI contracts.

News news4 stories

Ongoing2 earlier updates7 days

This story has run 3 times over 7 days, starting Sep 29.

  1. Justice Alito will sit out the Supreme Court climate case against Exxon and Suncor, leaving eight justices to decide it
  2. UpdateSupreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate-damage suit Monday, Oct. 5, with eight justices
  3. UpdateSupreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate suit; Roberts, Gorsuch and Barrett press the companies — this issue
CBS NEWSUpdateCourts and the administration

Supreme Court hears Exxon and Suncor's bid to end Boulder's climate suit; Roberts, Gorsuch and Barrett press the companies

The Trump administration argued for the oil companies, and several justices asked whether the court can review the unfinished case at all.

Eight justices heard nearly two hours of argument Monday, Oct. 5, on whether Boulder's Colorado-law climate suit against Exxon Mobil and Suncor can go forward or is barred by federal law. Justice Samuel Alito sat out. He owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, though not in Exxon or Suncor.

The pushback. Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett, three conservatives, pressed the companies hard. Roberts said he was "not quite sure what makes this situation different from all those other ones, where we've allowed them to proceed in state court." Justice Elena Kagan compared the suit to tobacco and opioid litigation: "This is Chapter 3. So, if this is Chapter 3, were Chapters 1 and 2 also preempted?" (blocked by federal law). Shanmugam answered that it was a "different book."

The companies' side. The Trump administration backed Exxon and Suncor through Principal Deputy Solicitor General Sarah Harris, a top Justice Department lawyer at the court. Justice Brett Kavanaugh urged the companies to rely on Clean Air Act precedent (past rulings on the main federal air-pollution law) instead of a constitutional theory: "We don't have to reinvent the wheel."

The exit door. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson told Suncor's lawyer the appeal was "sort of premature from the standpoint of this court exercising its jurisdiction."

Where it stands. A 4-4 tie would leave the Colorado Supreme Court's ruling in place, and Boulder's suit would proceed.

Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

On Sept. 28, the Court's clerk told lawyers that Justice Samuel Alito would sit out the case, leaving eight justices to decide whether Colorado climate-damage suits against Exxon and Suncor can proceed. On Oct. 3, Alito, 76, said in a CBS interview that he weighed retiring after last term and will reconsider every year.

1 earlier issue
How earlier climate suits fared in federal courts2011: Supreme Court ruled 8-0 that the Clean Air Act displaced federal nuisance claims seeking emission caps (AEP v.3 details
  • 2011: Supreme Court ruled 8-0 that the Clean Air Act displaced federal nuisance claims seeking emission caps (AEP v. Connecticut)
  • 2021: Second Circuit dismissed New York City's suit because it targeted cross-border emissions directly
  • Jan. 2025: Supreme Court declined Honolulu's similar case after the Solicitor General called review premature

Red take

Boulder should not set national climate policy through a local jury; as Justice Brett Kavanaugh said, 'We don't have to reinvent the wheel.' In 2011 the court ruled 8-0 that the Clean Air Act displaced suits seeking emission caps, and a 'deception' label cannot hide damages that flow from emissions. Let this suit stand, and any county can bill Exxon and Suncor for a global climate only Congress can regulate.

Blue take

Boulder accuses Exxon and Suncor of deceiving the public, a Colorado-law claim the state's Supreme Court let proceed in May 2025. Even Chief Justice John Roberts was 'not quite sure what makes this situation different' from suits the court has left in state court. End it on an appeal Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson called 'sort of premature,' and oil companies accused of misleading the public never answer for it at trial.

Ongoing4 earlier updates6 days

This story has run 5 times over 6 days, starting Sep 30.

  1. UpdateUK police found petrol, not explosives, in three vans tied to five bailed Fairford suspects
  2. UK police arrest a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old UK-Iranian national, over Sept. 27's RAF Fairford incident
  3. UpdateUK police free sixth RAF Fairford terror suspect, a UK-Iranian national, on bail
  4. UpdatePentagon flies all 12 B-1 bombers out of RAF Fairford, the UK base tied to a suspected Iran-linked plot
  5. UpdateTrump says threats drove all 12 B-1 bombers out of a UK base, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotation — this issue
BBC NEWSUpdateIran war

Trump says threats drove all 12 B-1 bombers out of a UK base, hours after Rubio called it a routine rotation

U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal the threat was an Iranian plot to hit the jets with drones and kill American pilots.

The pull-out. Donald Trump said Monday, Oct. 5, that the U.S. pulled all 12 of its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford, a British airfield the U.S. Air Force uses for bombers, because of threats, and that Washington knows who made them.

"They didn't fly out by accident. There were some threats. And rather than tempting the enemy, we'll capture the enemy and beat the enemy."Donald Trump

Rubio's account. Hours earlier, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the move a routine rotation and said he "wouldn't directly tie" it to the suspected plot.

Congress. Mark Warner (Sen-D Virginia), the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, says senators were never briefed on the move.

Still open. All six people arrested in the case are out on bail. Neither government has publicly confirmed the Iranian drone plot that U.S. officials described to The Wall Street Journal.

Catch upwhat happened before · 4 earlier issues
  • Sun., Sept. 27 — British counterterrorism police arrested five UK men with three vans in Whelford, about 2 miles from the RAF Fairford runway.
  • Wed., Sept. 30 — Police said the vans held petrol, not explosives, freed the five on bail, and complained that U.S. commentary was stoking fear.
  • Thu., Oct. 1 — Police arrested a sixth suspect, a 27-year-old British-Iranian, in Westminster on suspicion of preparing terrorist acts.
  • Sat., Oct. 3 — He was released on bail too, leaving all six suspects free.
  • Sun., Oct. 4 — The Pentagon flew every deployed B-1 home without giving a reason; one U.S. official cited an Iranian threat to the base.
3 earlier issues
BLOOMBERG

Trump signs order easing limits on tax-exempt red diesel, which skips the 24.4-cent federal road-fuel tax

The order also tells the Transportation Department to work with states on waiving their own diesel taxes; only Ohio, Georgia and Kentucky have suspended theirs.

Trump signed an executive order Monday, Oct. 5, loosening the rules on dyed diesel. Red diesel is ordinary diesel dyed red to mark it for untaxed off-road use, such as tractors, construction equipment and generators. It skips the 24.4-cent-a-gallon federal highway tax. The goal is to cut record-high fuel costs before the November midterm elections. Vice President JD Vance pushed the idea as relief for farmers. The national average diesel price was $6.32 a gallon Monday, per the Washington Examiner.

Still open. Analysts doubt the order will move pump prices much.

Red take

Trump's order puts money back with farmers now: easing limits on red diesel, the dyed fuel that skips the 24.4-cent federal road tax, cuts what each gallon costs the buyer, whatever the national average does. Diesel has gone from $3.49 a gallon in May 2025 to $6.38 in late September, and leaving that break on the table means farmers keep eating record fuel costs with no relief in sight.

Blue take

Loosening red-diesel rules buys a pre-midterm headline, not cheaper fuel: analysts doubt it will move the $6.32 average much. Running untaxed dyed fuel on roads normally draws an IRS penalty of $1,000 or $10 a gallon, and past exceptions were short, local and followed hurricanes like Harvey and Irma. Stretch that to cover high prices weeks before the Nov. 3 vote, and every future president inherits a road-fuel tax to waive whenever an election nears.

TIME

US monitors suspected pneumonic plague death of a 28-year-old Siberian lab worker; Trump offers Russia help

Russia lists the cause as pneumonia of undetermined origin, but has quarantined a hospital and put nearly 200 contacts under watch.

The death. A 28-year-old worker at Irkutsk's anti-plague research institute, a Siberian lab that studies the disease, died last week. Russian officials list the cause as pneumonia of undetermined origin and say her samples showed no microbes tied to her lab work. No other institute staff have reported illness.

The U.S. watch. The State Department and CDC are tracking it as a suspected case of pneumonic plague, the lung form of the infection.

“I don't think it's cause for alarm, but it is cause for focus and the cause to just keep an eye on it and we're doing that.”Secretary of State Marco Rubio

The offer. Trump said the U.S. would help Russia and that he has not spoken with Putin about it. He added: "That's a disease we used to be able to control, but somehow those microbes got stronger and smarter than like an army." ([TS]Per CDC, standard antibiotics still treat plague and usually stop it spreading within hours.)

Still open. Russia has not published a confirmed cause of death, and no second case has been reported.

Quick bites11

Trump and the press2 bites

  1. White House bars Politico, the assigned print pooler, from Air Force One on Trump's Nebraska trip

    TIMEUpdate

    On Monday, Oct. 5, the White House kept Politico, the designated print pooler, off Air Force One to Nebraska. Judge Kelly's order covers the grounds but not the plane, so the trip had no primary print pooler ahead of the hearing set for Thursday, Oct. 8.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
    • Sept. 18 — Trump banned CNN, MS NOW and Politico from the White House.
    • Sept. 22 — The three outlets sued Trump, chief of staff Susie Wiles and two other advisers; five TV networks then suspended pool coverage.
    • Sept. 23 — Judge Timothy Kelly heard their emergency request without ruling, leaving 78 credentialed journalists locked out.
    • Sept. 24 — Kelly restored their credentials to the grounds for 14 days; reporters were readmitted the next day.
    • Sept. 27 — The White House left CNN off Air Force One for a Knoxville trip; Real America's Voice took the seat.
    • Sept. 28 — Attorney General Todd Blanche defended the ban.
    • Sept. 30 — The outlets asked Kelly to keep the ban blocked until the case ends; the TV pool resumed.
    Where the fight standsCNN was also removed from presidential pool duty last week.2 details
    • CNN was also removed from presidential pool duty last week.
    • Kelly's order lasts 14 days; the outlets want it kept in place until the case ends.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 9 days, starting Sep 27.

    1. UpdateWhite House leaves CNN off Air Force One two days after judge restored its pass
    2. UpdateWhite House bars Politico, the assigned print pooler, from Air Force One on Trump's Nebraska trip — this issue

  2. Trump says the New York Times should be arrested over its report of empty rally seats

    THE HILL

    Trump claimed on Truth Social on Monday, Oct. 5, that his Saturday rally arena in Vandalia, Ohio, was "MAXED OUT," though The Times reported empty upper-deck sections by the end. The high school student center seats 4,500. Trump said upper-deck fans "migrate down to the Main Floor."

    What he saidTrump's exact words: the Times "and many other Artificial Media Outlets, should be arrested for their dishonesty and disservice to…2 details
    • Trump's exact words: the Times "and many other Artificial Media Outlets, should be arrested for their dishonesty and disservice to our Country."
    • Trump also said thousands of people were turned away at the door.
Also tonight5 bites

  1. Trump says he and his super PAC, MAGA Inc., will pay for pro-Trump ads that DHS had funded with $20 million

    POLITICO

    After more than a week of criticism from both parties, Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that he would pay for the ads "myself, and with money I raised for MAGA, Inc." He gave no dollar figure or date, and nobody has said whether the $20 million DHS already spent will be paid back.

    The fight over the adsDHS made more than a dozen spots, including "God made Trump," that ran during NFL games and on Fox News, CNN and MS NOW.3 details
    • DHS made more than a dozen spots, including "God made Trump," that ran during NFL games and on Fox News, CNN and MS NOW.
    • Democrats say the ads break laws against spending public money on propaganda.
    • John Kennedy (Sen-R Louisiana): "I don't think any public official, including President Trump or Kristi Noem or John Kennedy, should spend public money on private ads for themselves."

  2. PEN America counted a record 11,982 school book bans in 2025-26, more than 8,100 of them in Texas

    THE HILL

    PEN America, a free-speech group that tracks school book removals, counted 11,982 bans in U.S. public schools in the 2025-26 school year, up from 6,870 the year before. Texas led every state after its new law, SB 13, took effect.

    How the yearly count climbed2021-22: 2,532 bans3 details
    • 2021-22: 2,532 bans
    • 2022-23: 3,362 bans
    • 2023-24: 10,046 bans, the old record

  3. Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces say they took Mocha and secured the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

    BLOOMBERGUpdateIran war

    The Giants Brigades spearheaded the push on Mocha on Monday, Oct. 5, under heavy Saudi air cover, and government forces say they secured the strait around the Dhubab district. The Saudi-led coalition says its jets hit more than 300 targets; Houthi media deny the advance, and the Houthis say they fired missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco sites.

    How we got herethe story so far
    • Sep. 11 — The Houthis seized Perim Island at the mouth of the Red Sea, as more than 100 U.S. advisers supported the Saudi campaign against them.
    • Sep. 14 — The Houthis claimed new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia; a projectile wounded two in al-Tawwal.
    • Sep. 23 — Gulf leaders urged Trump not to escalate with Iran after weekend strikes, fearing a wider war and less U.S. defense help.
    • Oct. 2 — Vance chaired a secret Camp David meeting of Trump's security cabinet on resuming the Iran war and the Saudi request; Trump did not attend.
    • Oct. 3 — The U.S. refused Saudi requests to bomb the Houthis and sent targeting data for a Saudi ground offensive instead.
    • Oct. 4 — Yemen's government launched an offensive to retake all Houthi-held land, including Sanaa, with U.S. intelligence but no U.S. strikes "for now."

  4. US citizen shot five times by Border Patrol agent in Chicago sues the federal government

    NBC NEWSImmigration enforcement

    Marimar Martinez, a Montessori teaching aide shot by agent Charles Exum during Operation Midway Blitz in October 2025, filed a Federal Tort Claims Act suit on Monday, Oct. 5. Prosecutors had charged her with trying to ram officers, then dropped the case.

    • Claims: negligence, battery, assault, false arrest, false imprisonment and malicious prosecution
    • Her lawyers are also urging criminal charges against Exum
    • Attorney Michael Gallagher: "She almost lost her life as a result."

  5. Trump says refinery losses in Russia and California, not Iran's Hormuz closure, now drive gas prices

    THE HILLIran war

    On Truth Social, Trump wrote that refineries are the problem, "where Russia's are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats."

    • AAA national average on Monday, Oct. 5: more than $4.36 a gallon, down from the $4.47 summer peak.
    • Diesel averages $6.32 a gallon.
Elections4 bites

  1. Trump says Republicans can vote by mail 'because we seem to have no choice' but prefers in-person

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    He repeated claims of widespread mail fraud and called Maricopa County "very, very dishonest" over 3,100 ballots mailed early, which the county blames on a vendor and says still count. When a reporter said there was no evidence, Trump answered, "You are fake news."

    On Oct. 4, Trump urged Republicans to vote by mail and vote early in the midterms.

  2. Trump rallies in Nebraska for Sen. Pete Ricketts against independent Dan Osborn

    THE GUARDIAN

    Pete Ricketts (Sen-R Nebraska) faces Dan Osborn (I-NE), who has Democratic backing and no Democrat splitting his vote, because the Democratic primary winner withdrew from the ballot.

    Why a red state needs a rallyBeef: ranchers oppose the administration's plan to import more foreign beef, and Ricketts said, "I would advise the White House to…3 details
    • Beef: ranchers oppose the administration's plan to import more foreign beef, and Ricketts said, "I would advise the White House to change that policy."
    • 2024: Osborn ran a close race against Sen. Deb Fischer but lost, per The Hill.
    • Blitz: the Grand Island stop is part of Trump's 32-day pre-election rally tour.

  3. Flávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff

    PBS NEWSHOURUpdate

    With 99.8% of votes counted, Bolsonaro had just over 56 million votes to Lula's 53.7 million, and Lula is now trying to reset a campaign that had hoped to win outright in the first round.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    Polls heading into Brazil's Oct. 4 first-round vote showed a close race, and the final Datafolha poll put Lula ahead 42%-38%. Lula's campaign had hoped to win outright with more than half the valid votes.

    1 earlier issue
    What each side saidLula: "I am very good in the knockout stage."2 details
    • Lula: "I am very good in the knockout stage."
    • Flávio Bolsonaro: "It's the end of the Workers' Party era."
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 4.

    1. Polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in a close race before Brazil's first-round vote Sunday, Oct. 4
    2. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in Brazil's first-round presidential vote count; Oct. 25 runoff likely
    3. UpdateFlávio Bolsonaro finishes first over Lula (President, Brazil), forcing an Oct. 25 runoff — this issue

  4. Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)

    THE GUARDIAN

    Gubernatorial nominee Jocelyn Benson (D-MI) joins the rally for El-Sayed, a progressive who narrowly beat Haley Stevens (Rep-D Michigan) in the August primary.

    Behind the rallyStevens won Wayne County, which includes Detroit, with about 51% to El-Sayed's roughly 45%.3 details
    • Stevens won Wayne County, which includes Detroit, with about 51% to El-Sayed's roughly 45%.
    • AIPAC and allied groups spent $30 million against El-Sayed in the primary, per The Guardian.
    • Obama taped two dozen ads last week for Democratic Senate and governor candidates.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 13 days, starting Sep 23.

    1. Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed
    2. Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI) — this issue

Elections22 races

The midterms · 28 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 66%, Kalshi 65%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.45–92.50%
93%91%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · neither venue moved this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 64.5–65.5%
66%65%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 66% and Kalshi 65%.

3 closest races

  • tGeorgia governorRick Jackson 51.5%▲1.9Keisha Lance Bottoms 49.0%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and it is a dead heat — the two sides are priced within three points of each other.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uNevada governorAaron Ford 53.5%▲6.2Joe Lombardo 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pIowa SenateAshley Hinson 57.0%▲1.8Josh Turek 43.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • oAlaska SenateMary Peltola 73.5%▲0.4Dan Sullivan 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • wGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.25%▲1.1Collins 3.60%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.2%, Kalshi 96.3%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.45%, Kalshi 3.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mMaine SenateTroy Jackson 57.0%▲2.3Susan Collins 43.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 73.5%▲1.6Mike Rogers 26.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.5%▲1.7Dan Osborn 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 71.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 28.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.8%▲0.713.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 87.0%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.53%▲1.6Whatley 3.47%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.25%, Kalshi 96.80%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.65%, Kalshi 3.30%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rOhio SenateSherrod Brown 62.5%▲3.5Jon Husted 37.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 35.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nTexas SenateJames Talarico 65.0%▲3.1Ken Paxton 35.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • aaAlaska governor21.00%▲1.778.1%WilsonBegich 0.88%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21%, Kalshi 21%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.70%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acArizona governorKatie Hobbs 90.0%▲1.310.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agFlorida governorByron Donalds 76.5%▲1.023.5%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zIowa governorRob Sand 88.5%▲4.312.0%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.53%▲2.1James 6.22%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 94.05%, Kalshi 93.00%; John James (R): Polymarket 5.20%, Kalshi 7.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew York governorKathy Hochul 96.05%▲1.1Blakeman 4.15%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 96.15%, Kalshi 95.95%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 3.9%, Kalshi 4.4%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lOhio governorAmy Acton 66.0%▲5.9Vivek Ramaswamy 33.8%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 65.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 35.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.3%Garrity 2.5%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.9%, Kalshi 97.6%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 2.3%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adTexas governorGreg Abbott 73.72%▲5.826.50%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 72.95%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.0%▲1.319.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 5, 9:53 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news2 stories

REASON

Gross federal debt passes $40 trillion, above CBO's $39.4 trillion forecast for the end of fiscal 2026

The fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ran a deficit of about $2 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP, per a preliminary Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimate.

Gross federal debt has passed $40 trillion, Reason reported Monday, Oct. 5. In February, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO, Congress's nonpartisan budget scorekeeper) projected $39.4 trillion by the end of fiscal 2026 on Sept. 30. In 2020, CBO did not expect the debt to reach $40 trillion this decade.

Interest on the debt cost a record $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2026, or 3.4% of GDP. That is more than the government spent on defense or on Medicare.

What next. CBO projects gross debt reaching $43.3 trillion by the end of 2028.

  • Of the total, $32.3 trillion, about 100% of GDP, is held by the public: Treasury bills, notes and bonds sold to banks, pension funds, the Federal Reserve and foreign governments. The rest is owed to federal trust funds such as Social Security and Medicare, an internal IOU that does not borrow from private markets.
BBC NEWS

Pentagon says it has stopped using Anthropic's Claude AI, after missing its own late-August phase-out deadline

The Defense Department cut off Anthropic after labeling it a national security supply-chain risk in February 2026; Google, xAI and OpenAI hold Pentagon AI contracts.

A Pentagon official told the BBC the department "has ceased the use of Anthropic products." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth labeled Anthropic a national security supply-chain risk in February 2026. He did so after the company refused to drop safety limits built into Claude, its AI model.

Still open. Anthropic is suing over the designation.

BackgroundWhere Claude ran inside Pentagon systems before the ban3 facts
  • Claude ran inside the Maven Smart System, Palantir's intelligence and targeting platform, analyzing satellite, drone and signals data.
  • Maven's five-year contract ceiling grew from $480 million to $1.275 billion, as planned users grew from hundreds to thousands.
  • Anthropic was the first frontier AI company deployed on classified U.S. government networks, starting in June 2024.