Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Monday

1usUpdateIran war

Trump says he is considering further Iran attacks, continued economic pressure or a deal

U.S. gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon on Sunday, Sept. 20, according to AAA, cited by The Hill.

On Sept. 18, Trump said he faced a decision on whether to annihilate Iran’s regime.

ContextIran warned the United States and its allies against further escalation on Sept. 20, according to [Reuters](https://reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/iran-warns-against-new-escalation-by-us-allies-2026-09-20).

THE HILL4 sources

2us

Tanker shipping rates through the Strait of Hormuz reach records

Qatar's central bank governor said on Sept. 20 that damaged liquefied natural gas export facilities could take two to three years to repair.

The cost of imported crude oil includes transportation and insurance, which refiners pay before gasoline reaches stations, according to the Energy Information Administration.

ContextThe cost of imported crude oil includes transportation and insurance, which refiners pay before gasoline reaches stations, according to the [Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/feature/price-comparison092012_article.pdf). Strikes in March 2026 disabled 17% of Qatar’s capacity to export liquefied natural gas (gas chilled into liquid for shipping). [QatarEnergy initially estimated that repairs would take three to five years](https://www.hydrocarbonprocessing.com/news/2026/03/iran-attacks-wipe-out-17-of-qatar-s-lng-capacity-for-up-to-five-years/), meaning the damage went beyond a shipping interruption.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL5 sources

3usUpdateIran war

Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh

Houthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti says the group will keep targeting Saudi Arabia while honoring its pledge not to attack U.S. vessels.

- Sept. 9 — Houthi attacks wounded 73 people across four Saudi cities and halted Aramco’s Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels a day. - Sept. 10 — Brent crude (an international benchmark for oil prices) exceeded $100 a barrel, up from near $99; U.S. diesel reached $5.94 a gallon. - Sept. 11–12 — Houthis captured Mokha and Perim island beside the Bab el-Mandeb passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. - Sept. 16 — Aramco suspended oil loadings at Yanbu and cancelled September cargoes. - Sept. 19 — Air-raid sirens sounded in Riyadh for the first time since fighting escalated in July; a fire appeared near its airport.

ContextOman’s May 6, 2025 agreement ended U.S. bombing in exchange for a mutual pledge against attacks, including on American ships. It offered Saudi Arabia no protection. The Saudi-led coalition counted 430 Houthi ballistic missiles (weapons that follow an arc toward their targets) fired at the kingdom from 2015 through December 2021. That is the last published cumulative total, not a count of the renewed campaign.

REUTERS6 sources

4usRussia-Ukraine war

Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22

Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher diesel prices, a person familiar with their call told Axios.

- Sept. 5–6 — U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv with a peace proposal; temporary pauses in fighting protected the visits. - Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv, killing seven people that day, after the envoys left without an agreement. - Sept. 15 — Trump announced an energy truce (a halt to attacks on energy sites); Ukraine said its halt depended on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. - Sept. 17–19 — Congress sent Trump legislation authorizing tariffs (taxes on imports) on buyers of Russian oil. He signed it, also requiring sanctions (government penalties) on Russian officials.

ContextOn Sept. 15, Zelensky offered to halt strikes on Russian oil exports if Russia spared Ukraine’s energy facilities, critical infrastructure and food routes, [Xinhua reported](https://www.chinadailyasia.com/hk/article/639581). Russia had not agreed as of Sept. 16, according to [Euronews](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/16/ukraine-ready-for-energy-ceasefire-but-russia-has-yet-to-agree-zelenskyy-says). The U.S. average retail diesel price was $6.29 per gallon on Sept. 14, 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s diesel price chart (series EMD_EPD2D_PTE_NUS_DPG).

AXIOS3 sources

5usUpdateTariffs and trade

U.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals

Donald Trump will host Xi Jinping at the White House for a summit and state dinner Thursday, Sept. 24.

On Sept. 19, Trump planned to greet Xi personally. Preparations for the leaders' meeting covered artificial intelligence and tariffs (taxes on imports) on liquefied natural gas and autos.

ContextThe U.S. extended 178 product exemptions from additional China tariffs, moving their expiration from Nov. 29, 2025, to Nov. 10, 2026, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR). The extension keeps relief in place for specified goods without changing the separate underlying tariffs. Electrical machinery and equipment accounted for 29.8% of imports from China; machinery, including computers, accounted for 26.8%; and furniture, bedding, and toys accounted for 15.3% (U.S. Census Bureau, BEA end-use estimates). These were the top import sectors. BASELINE FACTS FROM PUBLIC DATA - Partner country: China. - Bilateral trade data: U.S. trade with China — U.S. Census Bureau Foreign Trade Division. - Top sectors as shares of imports from China: Electrical machinery and equipment (29.8%), Machinery (incl. computers) (26.8%), Furniture, bedding, and toys (15.3%). - Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) end-use estimates.

CBS NEWS4 sources

6not newslongform

EPA incorporated Bayer’s choices into proposed restrictions on its dicamba weedkiller

Bayer selected the least protective option for one restriction and the middle of three protection levels for another.

Dicamba can turn into vapor for several days after spraying and drift through the air, damaging neighboring crops, according to EPA. EPA pesticides chief Kyle Kunkler previously lobbied for the American Soybean Association, which advocated restoring this dicamba use, according to a March 25, 2026, Senate letter.

ContextDicamba can turn into vapor for several days after spraying and drift through the air, damaging neighboring crops, according to [EPA](https://www.epa.gov/ingredients-used-pesticide-products/registration-dicamba-use-dicamba-tolerant-crops). EPA pesticides chief Kyle Kunkler previously lobbied for the American Soybean Association, which advocated restoring this dicamba use, according to a [March 25, 2026, Senate letter](https://www.schiff.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/EPA-letter-on-OCSPP-recusals.pdf).

THE GUARDIAN1 source

Monday · The daily brief

Sep 212026

6 leads31 briefs10 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary6 stories

News news5

  1. Trump says he is considering further Iran attacks, continued economic pressure or a dealU.S. gasoline averaged $4.48 a gallon on Sunday, Sept. 20, according to AAA, cited by The Hill.
  2. Tanker shipping rates through the Strait of Hormuz reach recordsQatar's central bank governor said on Sept. 20 that damaged liquefied natural gas export facilities could take two to three years to repair.
  3. Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at RiyadhHouthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti says the group will keep targeting Saudi Arabia while honoring its pledge not to attack U.S. vessels.
  4. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher diesel prices, a person familiar with their call told Axios.
  5. U.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical mineralsDonald Trump will host Xi Jinping at the White House for a summit and state dinner Thursday, Sept. 24.

Not news news1

  1. EPA incorporated Bayer’s choices into proposed restrictions on its dicamba weedkillerBayer selected the least protective option for one restriction and the middle of three protection levels for another.

News news5 stories

THE HILLUpdateIran war

Trump says he is considering further Iran attacks, continued economic pressure or a deal

President Donald Trump said Sunday, Sept. 20, that he was weighing further attacks on Iran, continued economic pressure or a deal.

Trump outlined those options on Sept. 20, asking: “My question is, if and when do I blow the entire nation up? They better behave,” The Hill reported.

Where it stands. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz declined to give a timeline for ending the war in a CNN interview on Sept. 20.

On Sept. 18, Trump said he faced a decision on whether to annihilate Iran’s regime.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

Tanker shipping rates through the Strait of Hormuz reach records

QatarEnergy said on Sept. 20 that the Hormuz crisis could delay some expansion projects, Reuters reported.

Gasoline costs. High shipping rates could keep gasoline expensive even as crude oil prices ease, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Motor-oil shortages. Costco has imposed purchase limits on some motor oil.

Ongoing9 earlier updates12 days

This story has run 10 times over 12 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  3. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  4. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  5. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  6. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  7. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  8. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  9. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  10. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh — this issue
REUTERSUpdateIran war

Saudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh

Houthi official Mohamed al-Bukhaiti says the group will keep targeting Saudi Arabia while honoring its pledge not to attack U.S. vessels.

The attacks. Saudi Arabia reported no casualties after intercepting a missile aimed at its capital on Saturday, Sept. 19. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis also claimed to have targeted Aramco oil facilities in Yanbu. A fire was reported near Riyadh’s airport, but its cause has not been established. The reporting does not confirm that a missile hit the fuel depot. Oil prices rose following the attack, Reuters reported.

The U.S. warning. The State Department urged Americans across the Middle East to prepare for possible flight cancellations, airspace closures and other travel disruption. Americans outside the region should reconsider travel there. This was a travel warning, not an evacuation order. Washington Examiner

Catch upwhat happened before · 9 earlier issues
  • Sept. 9 — Houthi attacks wounded 73 people across four Saudi cities and halted Aramco’s Jazan refinery, which processes 400,000 barrels a day.
  • Sept. 10 — Brent crude (an international benchmark for oil prices) exceeded $100 a barrel, up from near $99; U.S. diesel reached $5.94 a gallon.
  • Sept. 11–12 — Houthis captured Mokha and Perim island beside the Bab el-Mandeb passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
  • Sept. 16 — Aramco suspended oil loadings at Yanbu and cancelled September cargoes.
  • Sept. 19 — Air-raid sirens sounded in Riyadh for the first time since fighting escalated in July; a fire appeared near its airport.
8 earlier issues
Ongoing14 earlier updates26 days

This story has run 15 times over 26 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
  6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
  11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
  12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
  13. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
  14. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
  15. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22 — this issue
AXIOSRussia-Ukraine war

Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22

Trump repeatedly asked Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, citing higher diesel prices, a person familiar with their call told Axios.

The talks. U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed during their Sunday, Sept. 20 call to meet at the United Nations’ annual gathering of world leaders. Ukraine said it was prepared to take serious steps to reduce the fighting. The White House sought steps from both Russia and Ukraine to restart negotiations, Axios reported.

The attacks. Ukraine said it launched more than 1,000 drones overnight into Sept. 20. Two people were reported killed and 20 wounded in the wider Moscow region during the attacks, according to PBS NewsHour/AP.

Catch upwhat happened before · 14 earlier issues
  • Sept. 5–6 — U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv with a peace proposal; temporary pauses in fighting protected the visits.
  • Sept. 9 — Russia resumed strikes on Kyiv, killing seven people that day, after the envoys left without an agreement.
  • Sept. 15 — Trump announced an energy truce (a halt to attacks on energy sites); Ukraine said its halt depended on Russia stopping attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
  • Sept. 17–19 — Congress sent Trump legislation authorizing tariffs (taxes on imports) on buyers of Russian oil. He signed it, also requiring sanctions (government penalties) on Russian officials.
13 earlier issues
CBS NEWSUpdateTariffs and trade

U.S. and China open New York talks on trade, AI and critical minerals

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng opened talks in New York on Sunday, Sept. 20.

The talks covered trade commitments, artificial intelligence and critical minerals. Bessent described the discussions as “focused, fulsome and constructive.” President Donald Trump will host Chinese President Xi Jinping at the White House for a summit and state dinner Thursday, Sept. 24.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Washington would monitor existing commitments while seeking better access to China's market for American farmers, manufacturers and workers.

Still open. Both sides are considering whether to extend their trade truce (a temporary pause in their trade dispute); neither government has announced extension terms.

On Sept. 19, Trump planned to greet Xi personally. Preparations for the leaders' meeting covered artificial intelligence and tariffs (taxes on imports) on liquefied natural gas and autos.

Quick bites9

  1. Trump requests plan giving outside panel veto power over NIH research grants

    THE GUARDIAN

    NIH grants would need unanimous panel approval, including from budget director Russell Vought and NIH director Jay Bhattacharya, The Guardian reports. NIH now assesses proposals on scientific merit.

  2. Trump proposes an ‘AI Force,’ opposes new restrictions and calls AI danger warnings a ‘hoax’.

    POLITICO

    About two-thirds of Americans surveyed said advanced AI poses at least a moderate risk of destroying humanity, according to Politico.

  3. Trump says proposed 250-foot arch would house drones, snipers and ammunition.

    ABC NEWS

    Veterans and preservationists are challenging the project near Arlington National Cemetery in court; veterans argue it would block views and needs Congress’s approval.

  4. ICE agent shoots and wounds man in Austin, city officials say

    REUTERSImmigration enforcement

    The man remained hospitalized in serious but stable condition; Austin police and the Texas Rangers will jointly investigate the shooting. The excerpt does not say when it happened, what preceded it or whether it occurred during an immigration enforcement operation.

  5. Some state attorneys general haven't agreed to settle Paramount's proposed $111 billion Warner Bros. acquisition.

    LOS ANGELES TIMES
    LOS ANGELES TIMES

  6. Chuck Grassley (Sen-R Iowa) urges Trump to halt diesel exports as prices reach $6.51/gallon

    THE HILLUpdate

    Grassley sought cheaper fuel for farmers and truckers as Sunday’s diesel average hit $6.51 a gallon, up more than 40 cents in a week and from $3.70 a year earlier.

    On Sept. 18, diesel reached $6.40 a gallon, while gasoline hit $4.44.

  7. 18 suspects in Haitian president’s assassination flown to U.S. for trial

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER

    U.S. prosecutors say 30 people have been indicted in Jovenel Moïse’s 2021 killing. Investigations into those who financed or facilitated it will continue, they say.

  8. North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles into waters off its east coast Sunday.

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    South Korea’s military said the missiles flew about 280 miles and more than 370 miles, respectively, according to AP.

  9. Canada and France agree to develop and share space launch systems and ground reception facilities

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    Their space agencies and defense ministries will lead the work, according to Canada’s prime minister’s office.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 43 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 93%, Kalshi 91%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 61%, Kalshi 60%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.1–92.5%
93%91%chance Democrats take it · 1.4pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 93% and Kalshi 91%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 59.5–60.5%
61%60%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 61% and Kalshi 60%.

3 closest races

  • pOhio SenateSherrod Brown 55.5%▲1.2Jon Husted 45.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sNevada governorJoe Lombardo 55.5%▲4.5Aaron Ford 44.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 53.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • jOhio governorAmy Acton 57.0%▲1.8Vivek Ramaswamy 42.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 14 still in doubt · Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • mAlaska SenateMary Peltola 74.0%▲8.7Dan Sullivan 26.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead after Sullivan lost about nine points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 73.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • uGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.47%▲0.6Collins 6.25%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 5.75%, Kalshi 6.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nIowa SenateAshley Hinson 60.5%▲1.2Josh Turek 40.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • kMaine SenateTroy Jackson 68.5%Susan Collins 32.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 66.3%▲5.5Mike Rogers 34.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about six points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 66.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 34.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 68.3%Dan Osborn 32.0%▲0.7

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 68.0%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 81.5%18.5%▲1.3Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 93.05%▲1.7Whatley 7.22%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.6%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lTexas SenateJames Talarico 59.5%▲6.5Ken Paxton 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead after the Republican side lost about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • yAlaska governor11.75%87.9%WilsonBegich 0.25%▲13.7

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about fourteen points.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 11.0%, Kalshi 12.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.15%, Kalshi 0.35%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aaArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.5%▲0.712.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeFlorida governorByron Donalds 79.5%21.0%▲1.7Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 58.5%▲2.5Rick Jackson 41.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xIowa governorRob Sand 78.5%▲1.2Zach Lahn 22.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 91.72%▲0.88.25%James

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 92.00%, Kalshi 91.45%; John James (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNew York governorKathy Hochul 93.67%▲0.9Blakeman 6.83%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 92.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.50%, Kalshi 7.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.78%Garrity 2.90%▲0.3

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.60%, Kalshi 96.95%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abTexas governorGreg Abbott 78.78%21.00%▲3.8Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after losing about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.05%, Kalshi 79.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 83.5%▲1.216.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 83.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 15.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 20, 8:29 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

Not news news1 story

THE GUARDIAN

EPA incorporated Bayer’s choices into proposed restrictions on its dicamba weedkiller

The restrictions were intended to limit dicamba evaporating into the air and washing off fields.

EPA asked Bayer to select restrictions on its dicamba weedkiller, then used the company’s choices in a proposed rule. Internal documents released in litigation reveal the exchange, the Guardian reported on Sept. 20, 2026. EPA defended the process, saying companies may suggest protections but ‘the registrant does not dictate terms.’

Where it stands. EPA’s current approval permits spraying dicamba on growing cotton and soybeans during the 2026 and 2027 growing seasons; other uses were already allowed. EPA’s approval explanation. The material provided does not establish whether the current approval retained Bayer’s choices from the proposed rule.