Political Guyentist

The daily brief

Jul 27
2026

Executive Summary

NEWS NEWS

  1. Three killed, four wounded at Seattle food festival; 15-year-old suspect detained: Police are searching for at least one additional suspect after the shooting beneath the Space Needle.
  2. Trump asks Supreme Court to revive federal voter list and mail-ballot limits: The blocked order would create a federal citizenship list and restrict ballot delivery to voters on it.

NOT NEWS NEWS

  1. Extra pandemic school aid displaced local taxes—but did not measurably raise scores: Near one funding cutoff, an extra $388 per pupil produced lower local revenue, faster reopening and higher enrollment—not detectable test-score gains.
  2. New York will subsidize five grocery stores to sell staples 30% below market: Private operators will run the stores; the city supplies the sites, covers overhead and has committed $70 million in capital funding.
  3. France and Spain evacuate more than 300,000 as record wildfires spread: More than 300,000 hectares have burned across the two countries, with major fires in Gironde, Ávila and Castellón.
  4. Biden’s ghostwriter tapes reveal discussions of possibly classified notes: The 2016–17 memoir recordings—not Biden’s later interview with special counsel Robert Hur—became evidence in Hur’s classified-documents investigation.
  5. U.S. public R&D may generate as much productivity abroad as at home: A new estimate across 69 economies finds the largest spillovers from nondefense research, especially in non-OECD countries.

1.) NEW YORK TIMES: Three killed, four wounded at Seattle food festival; 15-year-old suspect detained

Police are searching for at least one additional suspect after the shooting beneath the Space Needle.

[UPDATE]

AP reports that police now believe the shooting may have been gang-related and that 19-year-old Junior Cee Niko Semo, who died at the scene, was one of at least three suspected participants. A 15-year-old remained in custody for investigation of first-degree assault and firearms violations; detectives were seeking another possible suspect, and no one had been formally arrested on suspicion of homicide as of Monday.

[UPDATE2]

The city’s public communication also came under scrutiny. About four hours into the response, KOMO reporter Jeremy Harris reported that a planned press conference had been delayed and that the public still had not heard directly from police or city leaders. The mayor’s office had also revised its early account from two suspects in custody to one.

KOMO reporter Holly Menino later reported that Seattle never activated its public-alert system during the active-shooter response; city officials acknowledged the omission.

2.) NEW YORK TIMES: Trump asks Supreme Court to revive federal voter list and mail-ballot limits

The blocked order would create a federal citizenship list and restrict ballot delivery to voters on it.

[UPDATE]

SCOTUSblog reports that the Supreme Court ordered the states to respond by 4 p.m. Eastern on Monday, Aug. 3. Sauer also asked for an immediate administrative stay that would temporarily lift the lower-court order while the justices consider the broader request.

Red take

Election rules work only when people trust that ballots go to eligible voters. A federal citizenship list could give states one consistent eligibility check without replacing the rest of their election systems. And because agencies have not decided how the order would work, courts are blocking a policy before they know its final form. If the order is lawful, stopping it now prevents those safeguards from even being tested.

Blue take

The risk is simple: an eligible voter who is missing from the federal list would not receive a ballot. That is why the president should not be able to impose a new nationwide gatekeeping system by executive order when election authority belongs to states and Congress. If the Court revives the order, voters could lose access first and fight to correct the government’s list later.

_QUICK BITES_

  1. NPR: Fauci’s diary goes public

    Rand Paul (Sen-R Kentucky) released 1,141 pages of Anthony Fauci’s pandemic-era diary ahead of Fauci’s Senate testimony Wednesday on the origins of the coronavirus. Early entries show Fauci closely tracking his sudden celebrity and describing some of the intense press attention as “flattering.”

    [UPDATE]

    In the thread accompanying the release, Paul highlighted Fauci’s Feb. 1, 2020 note on a 12-scientist call: two participants concluded the virus had a natural origin, while, in Fauci’s words, “the rest felt that deliberate insertion was possible.” Paul argues that the entry undercuts later portrayals of the early scientific discussion; the diary records the discussion, not a settled finding about the virus’s origin.

  2. THE HILL: Thune resists recess cancellation

    President Donald Trump demanded that the Senate remain in session until it passes the SAVE America Act or eliminates the filibuster. The bill would require documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections and voter identification to cast a ballot. John Thune (Sen-R South Dakota) said he would cancel the five-week August recess only if the bill has a realistic path to passage—not merely to stage futile procedural votes.

  3. THE HILL: McConnell Remains in Rehabilitation

    Mitch McConnell (Sen-R Kentucky) remains in a rehabilitation facility after falling at his Washington home last month and has not been medically cleared to return to the Senate. He will miss Kentucky’s Fancy Farm picnic, the marquee political event he has attended for more than 40 years.

  4. THE HILL: Professors propose quorum safeguards for independent commissions

    More than 50 academics asked Congress to set a default quorum that prevents one appointee from governing alone, require a replacement nomination within 90 days of a firing and let claimants go to federal court when an adjudicatory commission lacks a quorum. The proposal follows the Supreme Court’s 6–3 Trump v. Slaughter decision striking down the FTC’s for-cause removal protection for commissioners exercising executive power; the FEC and CPSC currently lack quorums.

    [UPDATE]

    Two of the scholars are also developing a judicial backstop. University of Minnesota law professor Nicholas Bednar says he and Todd Phillips have proposed a “Faithful Execution Exception to Slaughter” under which courts could enjoin presidential removals that would destroy a multimember commission’s quorum.

  5. GAO: DHS implements five priority recommendations; total remains 39

    GAO identified 39 priority recommendations for DHS in May 2025. Since then, DHS implemented five and GAO closed two that were no longer valid, then added seven new priorities—leaving 39 open. GAO highlights disaster response, cybersecurity and immigration and border data as the three areas needing focused attention.

    Currently showing Why DHS's open total stayed at 39
    Why DHS's open total stayed at 39
    Why DHS's open total stayed at 39Waterfall chart showing 39 open DHS priority recommendations in May 2025, five implemented, two closed as no longer valid, seven new priorities added, and 39 now open.Why DHS's open total stayed at 39Seven removals were exactly offset by seven new priorities.40200Open priority recommendations39 open−5implemented−2no longer valid32 open+7new priorities39 openNo net changeMay 2025ImplementedNo longervalidNewprioritiesNow openRecommendation statusSource: GAO-26-109077

  6. THE HILL: Minnesota prediction market ban paused by federal judge days before rollout

    A federal judge paused Minnesota’s prediction-market ban, finding a federal preemption challenge likely to succeed.

  7. THE HILL: Comey asks judge to dismiss threat case over “86 47” seashell post

    Former FBI Director James Comey asked a federal judge to dismiss two charges alleging that his 2025 photo of seashells arranged as “86 47” threatened Trump. Comey argues the post was protected political speech rather than a “true threat.”

  8. THE HILL: Senate advances Jay Clayton for intelligence chief, 51–43

    The procedural vote sets up final confirmation as early as Tuesday. Clayton, a former SEC chair and Manhattan U.S. attorney, would replace acting Director of National Intelligence Bill Pulte. Democrats had suspended talks over renewing Section 702 surveillance authority after Pulte was installed; parts of the program are beginning to expire.

  9. THE HILL: Zelensky will meet senators Tuesday as Russia sanctions vote nears

    All 100 senators have been invited to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Capitol on Tuesday evening, July 28. The Senate may begin voting during his visit on sanctions targeting buyers of Russian energy.

  10. WSJ: J&J agrees to $5.5 billion talc settlement

    Johnson & Johnson agreed to pay $5.5 billion to resolve remaining lawsuits alleging its talc products caused ovarian cancer. The agreement requires 95% of remaining claimants to participate and is intended to end more than a decade of litigation.

  11. ECDC: Congo’s Ebola outbreak reaches 3,200 confirmed cases and 1,405 deaths

    There is no useful “normal annual” Ebola figure because cases occur in discrete outbreaks. In roughly ten weeks, this outbreak has nearly matched the 3,481 cases recorded during Congo’s entire 2018–20 epidemic; AP reports that it reached 1,000 deaths almost three times faster than the 2014–16 West Africa epidemic. The outbreak is caused by the Bundibugyo strain, for which no approved strain-specific vaccine or treatment exists.

NOT NEWS NEWS

3.) NBER: Extra pandemic school aid lowered local taxes, with no detectable test-score gains

Districts receiving more federal money collected less local revenue and reopened faster, without increasing per-pupil spending or test scores.

[UPDATE]

Paper co-author Philip Hoxie supplied useful scale in an explanatory thread: the event-study chart shows the local-revenue gap widening to roughly $500 per pupil by 2022. He also stressed an important limit on the result: the estimate applies to a relatively small, affluent slice of districts near the funding cutoff, with almost no Southern districts in the sample.

[UPDATE2]

Education-policy researcher Vladimir Kogan pointed to the tension with other studies that found positive achievement effects from pandemic aid. His proposed reconciliation is external validity: districts clustered around this particular 5% threshold may be unusual, so the paper’s local estimate need not describe the full universe of school districts.

Currently showing Local school revenue fell after extra federal aid arrived
Local school revenue fell after extra federal aid arrived
Local school revenue fell after extra federal aid arrived Dot plot showing estimated changes in local revenue per pupil for school districts just above the ESSER eligibility threshold: minus 107 dollars in 2020, minus 301 dollars in 2021, and minus 500 dollars in 2022, with 95 percent confidence intervals. Local school revenue fell after extra federal aid arrived Estimated difference per pupil for districts just above the ESSER eligibility cutoff Extra ESSER aid: about +$388 per pupil 2020 -$107 2021 -$301 2022 -$500 -$800 -$600 -$400 -$200 $0 +$200 Change in local revenue per pupil Whiskers show 95% confidence intervals; 2019 is the reference year. Negative values mean districts collected less local revenue than comparable districts below the cutoff. Source: NBER Working Paper 35447, Figure 3 and Table 5

4.) NYC MAYOR’S OFFICE: New York will subsidize five grocery stores to sell staples 30% below market

Private operators will run the stores; the city supplies the sites, covers overhead and has committed $70 million in capital funding.

How the discount is funded

The city will provide or lease the storefronts, pay construction costs, property taxes and other overhead, then hire private operators who must pass those savings to customers. The capital budget includes $70 million; the administration has not published a full estimate of the continuing subsidy. Food retailers’ net profit margin averaged just 1.7% in 2024, according to FMI, so a 30% shelf-price discount cannot come mainly from eliminating profit—it depends on the city absorbing costs. The stores will not sell hot food, beer or cigarettes, partly to limit direct competition with bodegas.

5.) ASSOCIATED PRESS: France and Spain evacuate more than 300,000 as record wildfires spread

More than 300,000 hectares have burned across the two countries, with major fires in Gironde, Ávila and Castellón.
Currently showing Where the largest France and Spain wildfires are burning
Where the largest France and Spain wildfires are burning
France and Spain are having exceptional fire seasons Through July 27, 2026, about 116,000 hectares had burned in France, roughly 65 percent more than the little over 70,000 hectares burned in all of 2022. Spain reported 153,000 hectares burned, six times the area burned by the same point in 2025. The 50,000-hectare Ávila fire was Spain’s largest on record. France evacuated about 250,000 people; Spain evacuated about 79,000, while another 30,000 people in Spain were confined to their homes. France and Spain are having exceptional fire seasons The burned-area comparisons use different baselines because each country reported a different benchmark. AREA BURNED THROUGH JULY 27 Each bar uses the same hectare scale 0 80,000 160,000 hectares FRANCE 2026 ≈116,000 full 2022 70,000+ about 65% higher already SPAIN 2026 153,000 same point in 2025 one-sixth as much, based on Spain’s reported sixfold increase Ávila alone burned 50,000 hectares, nearly one-third of Spain’s total and the country’s largest fire on record. PEOPLE EVACUATED The evacuation bars use the same scale FRANCE about 250,000 SPAIN about 79,000 SPAIN confined 30,000 ordered to remain at home, not evacuated France’s southwest fires drove the larger evacuation. The ministry counted 220,000 evacuees in Gironde and 30,000 in Landes. Burned area and French evacuations: French Council of Ministers and Interior Ministry, July 27, 2026. Spain burned area, sixfold comparison, Ávila record and emergency orders: AP citing Spanish authorities, July 27. France’s 2022 comparator was reported as “a little over 70,000 hectares”; percentages and national counts are rounded. France has passed its entire 2022 fire total Spain reports six times last year’s pace. AREA BURNED THROUGH JULY 27 FRANCE ≈116,000 ha full 2022 70,000+ About 65% higher—with five months left. SPAIN 153,000 ha same point 2025 one-sixth as much Ávila burned 50,000 ha—Spain’s largest fire on record, and nearly one-third of its total. PEOPLE EVACUATED FRANCE ≈250,000 SPAIN ≈79,000 Spain confined 30,000 more people at home. France: Council of Ministers; Interior Ministry. Spain: AP citing Spanish authorities. Figures as of July 27, 2026; counts rounded.

[SEMI-RELATED] Wisconsin tornado cuts power to more than 30,000

A confirmed tornado severely damaged homes and businesses around Appleton and Menasha in Winnebago County and knocked out power to more than 30,000 customers. No deaths or injuries had been reported Monday evening.

6.) CBS NEWS: Biden’s ghostwriter tapes reveal discussions of possibly classified notes

The 2016–17 memoir recordings—not Biden’s later interview with special counsel Robert Hur—became evidence in Hur’s classified-documents investigation.

Context

These are not the recordings of Biden’s 2023 interview with Hur. They were made in 2016 and 2017 for Promise Me, Dad, then obtained during Hur’s investigation. Biden fought their release on privacy grounds and dropped the case after a divided federal appeals court ruled that the public interest outweighed the remaining privacy intrusion. A Biden spokesperson called the release political retribution.

7.) NBER: U.S. public R&D may generate as much productivity abroad as at home

A new estimate across 69 economies finds the largest spillovers from nondefense research, especially in non-OECD countries.
Currently showing One U.S. public R&D shock, a 12-year global payoff
One U.S. public R&D shock, a 12-year global payoff
Roughly half the payoff from U.S. public research crosses the border The domestic social rate of return to U.S. public nondefense research and development is estimated at 140 to 210 percent by Fieldhouse and Mertens. De Souza and coauthors apply their estimated international spillover wedge to derive a conservative worldwide lower bound of 250 to 460 percent or more. These are derived point estimates, not confidence intervals, and sampling uncertainty is not shown. Three bars show the exact shares of the estimated global productivity gain received by the United States and 69 foreign economies under the paper's GDP weighting windows: 56.6 versus 43.4 percent using 1977 to 1979 weights, 52.3 versus 47.7 percent using 1994 to 1996 weights, and 45.0 versus 55.0 percent using 2017 to 2019 weights. The study sample is 1980 to 2019; gains are discounted over 15 years at 7 percent. RESEARCH, EXPLAINED Roughly half the payoff crosses the border The paper’s conservative model puts worldwide benefits from U.S. public nondefense R&D at about twice the benefits measured inside the United States. Estimated social rate of return Ranges of derived point estimates; zero-based scale 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Inside U.S. 140–210% Worldwide 250–460%+ Domestic: Fieldhouse & Mertens (2026a). Worldwide: De Souza et al.’s lower-bound spillover application. Sampling uncertainty is not shown. The worldwide range is a lower bound, not a confidence interval. Who receives the estimated global productivity gain? Same 15-year discounted estimate, using GDP weights from three points in the sample Start weights, 1977–79 U.S. 56.6% Abroad 43.4% Middle weights, 1994–96 U.S. 52.3% Abroad 47.7% End weights, 2017–19 U.S. 45.0% Abroad 55.0% “Abroad” covers the 69 foreign economies in the study. Later weights give non-OECD economies more weight. ESTIMATES, NOT OBSERVED OUTCOMES. Sample: 1980–2019; 15-year horizon; 7% discount rate. Source: De Souza, Fieldhouse, Mertens, Nath & Ramey, NBER Working Paper 35517, Table 1 & Section 7 (July 2026), doi:10.3386/w35517. Domestic-return source: Fieldhouse & Mertens (2026a). RESEARCH, EXPLAINED Roughly half the payoff crosses the border For public nondefense R&D, worldwide benefits are about twice those measured inside the United States. Estimated social rate of return Derived point estimates; zero-based scale 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% Inside U.S. 140–210% Worldwide 250–460%+ U.S.: Fieldhouse & Mertens (2026a). Global: De Souza et al.’s lower-bound application. Sampling uncertainty not shown. Lower bound, not a CI. Who receives the global gain? Start, 1977–79 U.S. 56.6% Abroad 43.4% Middle, 1994–96 U.S. 52.3% Abroad 47.7% End, 2017–19 U.S. 45.0% Abroad 55.0% 69 economies abroad · 1980–2019 · 15 yr · 7%. Source: NBER WP 35517 · Table 1 & Sec. 7. July 2026 · doi:10.3386/w35517

What that means

The authors’ back-of-the-envelope calculation says global returns to U.S. public nondefense R&D are about twice the domestic returns—so the United States captures roughly half of the total productivity benefit. They point to open scientific knowledge, trade in capital goods and technological leapfrogging as likely channels. This is a working paper, not a peer-reviewed result, and the 50–50 split is an estimate built on the paper’s causal model rather than a direct accounting of gains.

TRUMP’S COMMENTS

What Trump said today, from policy conditions to off-the-cuff remarks.

  1. DAILY WIRE: Trump brushes aside Netanyahu’s F-35 objection

    Trump rejected Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s objection to selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey: “Nobody tells me what we should be selling.” A sale is not final. Turkey was removed from the F-35 program after buying Russia’s S-400 air-defense system, and the report says the State Department recently told Congress that Turkey still has not met the requirements to rejoin.

  2. DANIEL DALE: Trump repeats disputed Michigan award claim

    Trump again claimed he received a Michigan “Man of the Year” award, this time placing it 25 years ago and saying the press later verified the story. CNN fact-checker Daniel Dale says no such award existed: Trump had previously placed it in the 2010s, and a Michigan Republican group later created a different “Man of the Decade” award for him in 2023.

    [UPDATE]

    The paper trail cuts against Trump’s new claim that the press eventually vindicated him. Media reporter Justin Baragona documented that when Trump cited a 2023 Oakland Press article as proof of a 2013 award, the newspaper corrected the article and said a local Republican official had supplied a false statement about that earlier honor.

  3. NEW YORK TIMES: Trump blames Biden for affordability and calls Iran talks “friendly”

    At a Michigan speech, Trump blamed Biden for affordability problems and said negotiations to end the Iran war were continuing in a “friendly” fashion. The conflict has driven fuel and energy prices higher.

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