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Political Guyentist

Friday

1usUpdatecontested

Trump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned

Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, is a former Senate Republican aide with no military service; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently.

- Apr. 2, 2026 — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forced out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George; Gen. Christopher LaNeve has run the job in an acting capacity ever since. - Sept. 1 — Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after about 18 months, the fourth senior service leader out in recent months, following repeated clashes with Hegseth. - Sept. 3 — Sen. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked Trump to replace Hegseth, citing "inept management," leaving the Army with no Senate-confirmed secretary and no Senate-confirmed chief of staff.

ContextTelle is the third person to run the Army since Trump took office on Jan. 20, 2025. Mark Averill filled in for about five weeks, then Dan Driscoll was confirmed on Feb. 25, 2025 and lasted roughly 18 months before quitting this week after repeated clashes with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Telle can start at once because acting officials do not need a Senate vote; the Senate did confirm him to the civil works job 72-22 on Aug. 2, 2025, with every no vote from a Democrat. The Army's top uniformed post is open too. Gen. Christopher LaNeve has been acting chief of staff for five months, since Hegseth forced out Gen. Randy George on April 2, 2026, and Trump has sent no nomination. Senators including Joni Ernst (Sen-R Iowa) note LaNeve has worn four stars for only about six months, against a norm closer to 18.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL8 sources

2usImmigration enforcement

ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door

ProPublica reports Justice Department leaders in Washington overruled the lead prosecutor, who wanted a civil rights charge; that prosecutor was fired the same day.

What the video undid after the shooting: Federal prosecutors dropped their own assault charges against Sosa-Celis and Alfredo Aljorna, citing evidence "materially inconsistent" with agents' hearing testimony. Then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had called the encounter "an attempted murder of federal law enforcement." Sosa-Celis plans to seek civil damages from the federal government, per the ACLU of Minnesota.

ContextSection 242 of the federal criminal code makes it a crime for an officer to violate someone's rights on purpose. It is the statute used against the Minneapolis police officers in George Floyd's killing. It requires proof the officer acted willfully, a high bar that keeps such cases rare. It also carries far more weight: up to life in prison when a weapon injures the victim, against five years per false-statements count, or 30 years at most across Castro's six. No outlet found an earlier case of the Justice Department charging an ICE officer over an on-duty shooting since the agency was created in 2003, and CNN calls this the first. Castro is free despite an outstanding Minnesota arrest warrant because extradition stalled. Gov. Greg Abbott never signed it, Texas law required his release once a 90-day hold ran out, and a federal judge in Texas ruled on Aug. 26 that Minnesota's suit to force the handover was premature. The state case brought by Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty — four counts of second-degree assault and one count of falsely reporting a crime — is still live.

BBC NEWS11 sources

3usUpdatecontested

Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list

The six were cut from a slate of 18 officers a peer review board had already approved; two are Black and two are women, and the Pentagon has given no reason.

What Hegseth's firings and promotion blocks did to the officer ranks: At least 20 uniformed and civilian defense leaders have been fired, forced out or have resigned since Hegseth took office in January 2025, per a CBS News tally. A May 2025 Hegseth memo ordered 20% cuts to four-star and general-officer ranks and 10% cuts more broadly — roughly 1 in 10 senior positions. Counting blocked promotions, more than 80 general and flag officer careers have been altered or sidelined. In Trump's first term (2017-2021), no high-ranking officer was fired. Several of the six blocked this week are logistics officers, who run supply and maintenance.

ContextAt Quantico in September 2025, Hegseth told hundreds of senior officers "personnel is policy." He issued about 10 directives: a single male-level fitness standard, tighter grooming rules, looser rules of engagement and an end to demographic promotion targets. Those ousted since January 2025 include Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. CQ Brown Jr CNO Adm. Lisa Franchetti, Coast Guard Commandant Adm. Linda Fagan and the Army's top chaplain. Across Obama's eight years, senior firings numbered a handful.

THE HILL10 sources

4uscontestedIran war

Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes

Calling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock that forces a withdrawal or a congressional vote; 55% of Americans already oppose the conflict.

Presidents who avoided the word, and what Trump told House Republicans: Past presidents used the same workaround: Truman called the 1950 Korea intervention a United Nations "police action," Clinton avoided the word during NATO's 78-day bombing of Kosovo in 1999, and Obama said the 2011 Libya air campaign was not a war needing congressional authorization. In March, Trump told House Republicans he would say "military operation" because the word "war" triggers a need for congressional approval. House Speaker Mike Johnson said at the start of this conflict that the U.S. was "not at war" but carrying out "a very specific, clear mission."

ContextThe 1973 War Powers Act gives a president 60 days of hostilities before he must withdraw or get a congressional vote, plus 30 days to pull troops out safely — the 90 days Massie cites. It has never been enforced. Massie has forced two House votes this year: a resolution rejected 219-212 in March, and one that passed 215-208 in June before dying in the Senate. Public support has slid from about 40% in March to 31% in late August.

TIME12 sources

5usUpdateIran war

Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5

Vice President JD Vance says the US is investigating but is "extremely skeptical" of the toll, which came from the Iranian Red Crescent, not the government.

- Feb. 28 — A US strike near Minab hit a school compound after outdated coordinates tied it to an IRGC naval base, killing at least 156 people, most of them children. - Mar. — Nearly every Senate Democrat demanded a Pentagon investigation of Minab; the inquiry reportedly concluded in April and has never been published. - Sept. 1 — A US strike package hit IRGC air defense, radar, maritime and communications sites; a house hosting a wedding in Kuhestak was destroyed, and the Red Crescent reported four dead and dozens hurt. - Sept. 2 — A wounded 22-year-old woman died in hospital, raising the toll to five, and early visual analysis began pointing to a US missile.

ContextThe wedding was hit Tuesday, Sept. 1. Reuters published its analysis two days later, on Thursday, Sept. 3. It is the second US strike on a civilian gathering in this corner of Iran during the war. On Feb. 28, a strike near Minab — about 23 miles from Kuhestak — hit a school compound. Outdated coordinates had flagged the site as part of an adjacent naval base run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Iran's separate military branch. That strike killed at least 156 people, most of them schoolchildren, roughly 30 times the toll at Kuhestak. Nearly every Senate Democrat demanded an investigation from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The Pentagon inquiry finished in April. Five months later, its findings remain unreleased. Iran says 3,636 people have died since the war began, including 1,701 civilians. Outside monitors have broadly confirmed those figures. Iran's Red Crescent has asked the International Criminal Court to open a war-crimes inquiry. Neither the US nor Iran has signed the Rome Statute, the treaty that created the court. So the ICC cannot force American cooperation without a referral from the UN Security Council, where the US holds a veto.

REUTERS7 sources

6uscontestedImmigration enforcement

ICE whistleblower says the agency made final job offers to new officers before fingerprint, identity and credit checks were done

The retired unit chief filed his complaint with the DHS inspector general in August 2025; more than a year later, no findings have been published.

What the shortened academy and rushed vetting let through: A second whistleblower, former ICE instructor Ryan Schwank, told Congress in February 2026 that 240 of the academy's 584 training hours were dropped, including the Constitution, use of force and arrest law. An Associated Press review found hires including a recruit with two bankruptcies and six law-enforcement jobs in three years, and an officer accused of lying in a police report about an innocent woman — a case settled for $75,000 before ICE hired him. House Homeland Security Democrats Bennie Thompson (Rep-D Mississippi), Lou Correa (Rep-D California) and Shri Thanedar (Rep-D Michigan) asked the Government Accountability Office on Dec. 19, 2025 to investigate, citing recruits who said mid-academy that they had never been fingerprinted.

ContextThe money arrived first. The 2025 reconciliation package (a budget bill that passes the Senate on a simple majority) gave ICE roughly $75 billion. In January, ICE said it had hired 12,000 new officers in under a year, with signing bonuses up to $50,000. That more than doubled a deportation arm that employed roughly 6,000 officers before the surge. DHS's inspector general opened a review of ICE hiring and training in August 2025, the same month the complaint was filed. Then-Acting Director Todd Lyons announced an internal audit that month too. Neither has published a result.

AP8 sources

Friday · The daily brief

Sep 42026

6 leads39 briefs27 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary6 stories

News news6

  1. Trump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resignedTelle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, is a former Senate Republican aide with no military service; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently.
  2. ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed doorProPublica reports Justice Department leaders in Washington overruled the lead prosecutor, who wanted a civil rights charge; that prosecutor was fired the same day.
  3. Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion listThe six were cut from a slate of 18 officers a peer review board had already approved; two are Black and two are women, and the Pentagon has given no reason.
  4. Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikesCalling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock that forces a withdrawal or a congressional vote; 55% of Americans already oppose the conflict.
  5. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5Vice President JD Vance says the US is investigating but is "extremely skeptical" of the toll, which came from the Iranian Red Crescent, not the government.
  6. ICE whistleblower says the agency made final job offers to new officers before fingerprint, identity and credit checks were doneThe retired unit chief filed his complaint with the DHS inspector general in August 2025; more than a year later, no findings have been published.

News news6 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update3 days

This story has run 2 times over 3 days, starting Sep 1.

  1. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigns after 18 months, following clashes with Hegseth
  2. UpdateTrump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned — this issue
THE WALL STREET JOURNALUpdate

Trump names Adam Telle acting Army secretary, effective immediately, after Driscoll resigned

Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, is a former Senate Republican aide with no military service; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently.

Trump named Adam Telle, the Army's assistant secretary for civil works, as acting Army secretary effective immediately, filling the vacancy left by Dan Driscoll's resignation this week after clashes with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Telle is a longtime Senate Republican aide with no military service, confirmed to his current post 72-22 in August 2025; Trump has not said whether he will nominate him permanently. Trump called Telle "a Great Patriot, who is respected by all." Hegseth added: "Huge congrats to Adam. Strong and whip smart. He is indeed a great Patriot — and will be an immediate asset to the @USArmy."

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
  • Apr. 2, 2026 — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth forced out Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George; Gen. Christopher LaNeve has run the job in an acting capacity ever since.
  • Sept. 1 — Army Secretary Dan Driscoll resigned after about 18 months, the fourth senior service leader out in recent months, following repeated clashes with Hegseth.
  • Sept. 3 — Sen. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) asked Trump to replace Hegseth, citing "inept management," leaving the Army with no Senate-confirmed secretary and no Senate-confirmed chief of staff.
BackgroundWhat Telle's civil works job did not put him in charge of3 facts
  • Civil works covers waterways, ports, flood control and the Army Corps of Engineers' non-military work — a budget and infrastructure lane.
  • The job carries no authority over personnel policy, force structure or unit readiness, the areas where Driscoll and Hegseth clashed.
  • A permanent nomination would need only a simple majority; with 53 Republican senators, a repeat of the 22 no votes would not stop him.

Red take

Somebody has to sign the Army's contracts on Monday. Dan Driscoll resigned Sept. 1 after 18 months, and the choice was a placeholder or an empty desk while a nomination crawls through committee for a season. Adam Telle is not a soldier — that is the honest cost here, and his civil works portfolio covered waterways and flood control, not force structure. But the Senate confirmed him 72-22 on Aug. 2, 2025, with no Republican against, and running the Corps of Engineers' construction budget is exactly the procurement discipline the Army needs. If Trump nominates him permanently, senators get their full vote on readiness then.

Blue take

The Army has no confirmed secretary and no confirmed chief of staff — Gen. Christopher LaNeve has been acting since Hegseth forced out Gen. Randy George on Apr. 2. Yes, the Senate confirmed Adam Telle 72-22, and an empty desk would be worse than a caretaker. But that vote was for civil works: ports, levees, the Corps' non-military work. It said nothing about personnel policy, force structure or readiness — the very ground on which Driscoll clashed with Hegseth before resigning Sept. 1 as the fourth senior service leader out. Replacing him with an acting official who has no military service and owes the post to Hegseth does not resolve that fight. It ends it by removing the man who was making it.

Ongoing3 earlier updates16 days

This story has run 4 times over 16 days, starting Aug 19.

  1. Texas Governor Abbott refuses to hand over ICE officer charged in Minneapolis shooting, Minnesota sues
  2. Judge rejects Minnesota’s bid to force Texas to extradite ICE agent Christian Castro
  3. Texas releases ICE officer after Minnesota’s extradition request goes unsigned for 90 days
  4. ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door — this issue
BBC NEWS

ICE officer Christian Castro indicted on 6 counts of lying to the FBI about shooting a Venezuelan man through a closed door

ProPublica reports Justice Department leaders in Washington overruled the lead prosecutor, who wanted a civil rights charge; that prosecutor was fired the same day.

A federal grand jury indicted Immigration and Customs Enforcement officer Christian Castro on six counts of making false statements over the Jan. 14, 2026 shooting of Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis, a Venezuelan immigrant, in Minneapolis. Castro told investigators he was hit twice in the head with a shovel and attacked with a broom handle before he fired. Prosecutors say surveillance video shows Sosa-Celis dropping the shovel and running into the house before Castro reached the door, a city gunshot sensor recorded the shot as Castro's arms were raised toward a closed door, and Castro's medical records show no head injury — only an abrasion near his thumb. The bullet went through the door, struck Sosa-Celis in the leg and lodged in the wall of a child's bedroom. ProPublica reported that Justice Department leadership in Washington overrode the lead federal prosecutor in Minnesota, Assistant U.S. Attorney Matthew Evans, who wanted a civil rights charge under Section 242. Evans wrote to victims' lawyers: "This is being directed by the Main Justice and the US Attorney. I objected in the strongest possible terms and fought it as hard as I could. It wasn't enough." NBC News reports Evans was fired as the indictment became public on Wednesday, Sept. 3, and that two sources say he is under investigation for alleged obstruction of a grand jury probe. Castro is not in custody. He walked out of a Texas jail last week after roughly three months, once Gov. Greg Abbott declined to sign Minnesota's extradition warrant and the state's 90-day hold expired.

What the video undid after the shootingFederal prosecutors dropped their own assault charges against Sosa-Celis and Alfredo Aljorna, citing evidence "materially…3 details
  • Federal prosecutors dropped their own assault charges against Sosa-Celis and Alfredo Aljorna, citing evidence "materially inconsistent" with agents' hearing testimony.
  • Then-Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem had called the encounter "an attempted murder of federal law enforcement."
  • Sosa-Celis plans to seek civil damages from the federal government, per the ACLU of Minnesota.

Related reading

RELATEDTexas judge lets Abbott run out the clock on Minnesota's extradition warrant for Castro

Abbott argues Castro is not a "fugitive" because ICE reassigned him to Texas rather than him fleeing. The Supreme Court rejected that theory in Appleyard v. Massachusetts (1906) and again, unanimously, in Puerto Rico v. Branstad (1987). Texas law required Castro's release after 90 days without a signed warrant, and no deadline forces a governor to decide.

RELATED 2Sosa-Celis's lawyer says the Justice Department "grossly undercharged" the case

Attorney Robin Wolpert says her client spent months publicly accused of attacking agents before video showed he was the one shot at, through the closed door of an occupied house.

Ongoing1 earlier update4 days

This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Aug 31.

  1. Military leaders told Hegseth prolonged Iran operations would leave the U.S. exposed elsewhere
  2. UpdatePanetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list — this issue
THE HILLUpdate

Panetta says Hegseth is "undermining the strength" of the military after 6 Army officers are pulled from the two-star promotion list

The six were cut from a slate of 18 officers a peer review board had already approved; two are Black and two are women, and the Pentagon has given no reason.

Former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who ran the Pentagon under President Obama, said Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is damaging the armed forces through constant churn at the top. "I think the secretary is undermining the strength of our military — and particularly the Army — by creating the kind of turmoil in the command structure that he's been creating," Panetta said. He added that the damage will outlast the administration: "It's going to take several years, or a decade, to go repair this and restore the type of system that we have had traditionally." The criticism followed Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's resignation and this week's removal of six Army officers from consideration for promotion to major general (two-star rank). Days earlier, Hegseth blocked four other officers from one-star promotions. Some had worked for Gen. Randy George or Gen. Chris Donahue, two commanders Hegseth had already pushed out. A Pentagon official who backs Hegseth told the Washington Examiner that Driscoll had "furthered some modernization efforts, really worked on drone dominance." But, the official said, "Dan Driscoll was not that guy we want someone that can execute radical change."

[PREVIOUSLY]

BackgroundWhat Hegseth's firings and promotion blocks did to the officer ranks5 facts
  • At least 20 uniformed and civilian defense leaders have been fired, forced out or have resigned since Hegseth took office in January 2025, per a CBS News tally.
  • A May 2025 Hegseth memo ordered 20% cuts to four-star and general-officer ranks and 10% cuts more broadly — roughly 1 in 10 senior positions.
  • Counting blocked promotions, more than 80 general and flag officer careers have been altered or sidelined.
  • In Trump's first term (2017-2021), no high-ranking officer was fired.
  • Several of the six blocked this week are logistics officers, who run supply and maintenance.

Red take

A promotion board recommends; it does not bind the elected government. The 18 names came from serving generals picking people much like themselves, and the force that has to win a drone war may need different officers. Hegseth's silence is the real cost — with no stated standard, every future two-star looks like a loyalty pick, and Tillis takes the opening. Say the standard out loud, and the churn buys a bench built for the next fight instead of the last one.

Blue take

Cutting six of 18 officers a peer board already cleared, with no reason, tells every colonel that the safest career move is proximity to the right general. Four officers blocked days earlier had worked for Randy George or Chris Donahue, commanders Hegseth pushed out. A secretary may say no, but he owes a standard. Panetta's estimate of "several years, or a decade" is what it costs to rebuild a bench that officers stop joining.

Related reading

SEMI-RELATEDPrediction markets put Hegseth's odds of leaving by Dec. 31 at 22.5%

Read more about: Prediction markets put Hegseth's odds of leaving by Dec. 31 at 22.5%

Polymarket, a site where people bet real money on news events, puts his odds of being gone by Sept. 30 at 3.5%, far below the 22.5% odds it gives for his exit by Dec. 31. Traders read the Driscoll fallout as real risk, but not a near-term firing.

Ongoing13 earlier updates43 days

This story has run 14 times over 43 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes — this issue
TIME

Vance says the six-month Iran conflict is not a war, two days after about 100 U.S. strikes

Calling it a war would start the 1973 War Powers Act clock that forces a withdrawal or a congressional vote; 55% of Americans already oppose the conflict.

At the first White House press briefing in more than 40 days, Vice President JD Vance said of the Iran conflict on Thursday, Sept. 3: "I wouldn't call it a war. Right now, there is no active shooting." He said major combat ended with the roughly six-week bombing campaign the administration named Epic Fury. He gave no end date. ([TS]U.S. Central Command reported roughly 100 strikes on Iranian coastal targets on Sept. 1, two days earlier.) U.S. forces carried out roughly 100 strikes on Iranian targets on Tuesday, Sept. 1. They hit Revolutionary Guard air defenses, radar, mine-laying equipment and two Iranian government tankers along the southern coast. The administration said the strikes answered attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) said the administration should "attempt to get the constitutionally and legally mandated congressional approval" instead of arguing over the label: "Playing these semantics is an insult to the men and women fighting the war and to those who've already sacrificed." Democrats made the same objection. Vance also said the U.S. will not "depend on the Iranians behaving responsibly or negotiating in good faith."

Presidents who avoided the word, and what Trump told House RepublicansPast presidents used the same workaround: Truman called the 1950 Korea intervention a United Nations "police action," Clinton…3 details
  • Past presidents used the same workaround: Truman called the 1950 Korea intervention a United Nations "police action," Clinton avoided the word during NATO's 78-day bombing of Kosovo in 1999, and Obama said the 2011 Libya air campaign was not a war needing congressional authorization.
  • In March, Trump told House Republicans he would say "military operation" because the word "war" triggers a need for congressional approval.
  • House Speaker Mike Johnson said at the start of this conflict that the U.S. was "not at war" but carrying out "a very specific, clear mission."

Red take

Vance said on Sept. 3 that "there is no active shooting," and Thomas Massie is right that the roughly 100 strikes two days earlier are dangerous work whatever you call them. But the fight in the Strait of Hormuz is retaliation for attacks on shipping — Revolutionary Guard radar, air defenses, mine-laying equipment — with no ground force and no occupation, and starting the 1973 clock would hand Tehran a published date to wait for. Congress is not powerless here. Massie's resolution passed the House 215-208 in June and the Senate let it die, and the appropriations power is available any week members want it. Refusing to use it is a choice.

Blue take

Vance told the briefing room he "wouldn't call it a war" two days after Central Command reported roughly 100 strikes on Iranian coastal targets. Thomas Massie, a Republican, put it plainly: "Playing these semantics is an insult to the men and women fighting the war." The honest objection is that a 60-day clock gives Tehran a date to outlast — but Vance declined to give any end date, so the mission is open-ended regardless; the only question is whether Congress or the White House sets it. His resolution passed the House 215-208 and the Senate never voted. Six months in, with 55% opposed, a label is doing the work a vote should.

Related reading

SEMI-RELATEDRepublicans stop expecting the Iran war to end before the November midterms

Read more about: Republicans stop expecting the Iran war to end before the November midterms

Party operatives spent the spring hoping for a ceasefire. They now treat the war as a fixed part of the campaign. On prediction markets, where traders bet real money on political outcomes, the odds that Vance attends U.S.-Iran talks by Dec. 31 sit at about one in four.

REUTERSUpdate

Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5

Vice President JD Vance says the US is investigating but is "extremely skeptical" of the toll, which came from the Iranian Red Crescent, not the government.

Four weapons experts who reviewed verified photos and video of the site at Kuhestak, in Sirik county near the Strait of Hormuz, told Reuters the damage points to a munition that detonated on or just above the roof of the house — a direct hit, not stray fragments. Trevor Ball, a former US Army ordnance disposal technician, identified debris consistent with a Joint Standoff Weapon, a US air-dropped glide bomb. Gareth Collett, a retired British Army brigadier who specialized in explosives engineering, said the evidence "leans towards a US 500 lb air-dropped munition" rather than an Iranian air-defense missile. The house sits about 112 meters from a telecommunications tower the US also hit that night, Tuesday, Sept. 1. The experts said the blast pattern is inconsistent with fragments carrying that far. The Iranian Red Crescent Society says five people were killed — four at the scene, and a 22-year-old woman who later died in hospital — and 67 were wounded. Asked about it Thursday (Sept. 3), Vance said: "I will say that the Iranian state media has not been a very good scribe about what's happened in the conflict thus far, so I'm extremely skeptical of this... ([TS]The casualty figures came from the Iranian Red Crescent Society, a member of the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement, not state media.) sometimes things happen." He added that he did not think the US had "any information one way or the other." CENTCOM spokesman Capt. Tim Hawkins said the command is aware of the reports and that the US military "never targets civilians, unlike the IRGC," but would not say whether a formal investigation has been opened.

  • Feb. 28 — A US strike near Minab hit a school compound after outdated coordinates tied it to an IRGC naval base, killing at least 156 people, most of them children.
  • Mar. — Nearly every Senate Democrat demanded a Pentagon investigation of Minab; the inquiry reportedly concluded in April and has never been published.
  • Sept. 1 — A US strike package hit IRGC air defense, radar, maritime and communications sites; a house hosting a wedding in Kuhestak was destroyed, and the Red Crescent reported four dead and dozens hurt.
  • Sept. 2 — A wounded 22-year-old woman died in hospital, raising the toll to five, and early visual analysis began pointing to a US missile.
What this strike has and has not set in motionIran's Red Crescent filed a letter with the International Criminal Court on Thursday (Sept. 3) urging a war-crimes investigation —…3 details
  • Iran's Red Crescent filed a letter with the International Criminal Court on Thursday (Sept. 3) urging a war-crimes investigation — the first such claim it has filed against the US military.
  • Iran's health ministry counted 18 killed and 108 wounded across all US strikes that same Tuesday (Sept. 1), meaning the wedding house accounted for more than a quarter of the day's dead.
  • No senator or House member has sent a letter, sought a hearing, or filed a resolution over the Kuhestak strike.
AP

ICE whistleblower says the agency made final job offers to new officers before fingerprint, identity and credit checks were done

The retired unit chief filed his complaint with the DHS inspector general in August 2025. More than a year later, no findings have been published.

A retired ICE veteran of 17 years, a longtime Republican who ran a vetting unit, says the agency handed new officers final job offers before it finished fingerprinting them, verifying their identities or checking their credit. He made the claim in a whistleblower complaint filed during the agency's hiring surge. "This unprecedented lowering of standards sacrifices proper risk mitigation for expediency, placing DHS at risk of infiltration and insider compromise," he wrote. He went straight to the Department of Homeland Security's Office of Inspector General instead of to ICE, saying agency leadership had caused the problem. ICE did not address the specific allegations. Its Office of Professional Responsibility "diligently applies the proper personnel vetting regulations," the agency said, adding that applicants may receive "an offer of temporary status to begin training pending a full background investigation." DHS noted the whistleblower is no longer with the agency and declined to comment further. Six months after he filed, an inspector general attorney contacted him — to seize his laptop and ask whether he had spoken to reporters. He was placed on leave over unspecified misconduct allegations. He was reinstated 10 months later.

What the shortened academy and rushed vetting let throughA second whistleblower, former ICE instructor Ryan Schwank, told Congress in February 2026 that 240 of the academy's 584 training…3 details
  • A second whistleblower, former ICE instructor Ryan Schwank, told Congress in February 2026 that 240 of the academy's 584 training hours were dropped, including the Constitution, use of force and arrest law.
  • An Associated Press review found hires including a recruit with two bankruptcies and six law-enforcement jobs in three years, and an officer accused of lying in a police report about an innocent woman — a case settled for $75,000 before ICE hired him.
  • House Homeland Security Democrats Bennie Thompson (Rep-D Mississippi), Lou Correa (Rep-D California) and Shri Thanedar (Rep-D Michigan) asked the Government Accountability Office on Dec. 19, 2025 to investigate, citing recruits who said mid-academy that they had never been fingerprinted.

Red take

ICE says its Office of Professional Responsibility "diligently applies the proper personnel vetting regulations." Recruits can get an offer of temporary status to start training while the full background check runs. That is how academy seats get filled. Stop it and classes sit empty. The retaliation was ugly: an IG attorney seized this man's laptop and asked if he had talked to reporters, and he waited 10 months to be reinstated. But the DHS inspector general has had the complaint since August 2025 and published nothing.

Blue take

The complaint came from a 17-year ICE veteran, a longtime Republican, who ran the vetting unit. He wrote that cutting standards leaves DHS "at risk of infiltration and insider compromise." Conditional offers pending a background check are ordinary. His charge is different: final offers went out before fingerprints and identity checks were done. Six months later the inspector general's move was to take his laptop and ask about reporters. Print and clear the officers before handing them arrest authority.

Related reading

RELATEDMaine ICE officer who killed a bystander in July had 42 days of academy training, family says

David Brouillette, 37, shot and killed Johan Sebastián Durán Guerrero, 25, during a traffic stop in Biddeford on Monday, July 13. Maine family-court records document domestic violence allegations from two ex-wives dating to 2009.

Quick bites13

  1. Judge Boardman blocks Trump's Aug. 6 birthright citizenship order as "almost certainly unconstitutional"

    THE GUARDIANUpdate

    A judge blocked Trump's order denying citizenship to U.S.-born children in "alien enemies" and "birth tourism" cases. US District Judge Deborah Boardman's 35-page preliminary injunction cites June's Supreme Court ruling in Barbara v. Trump, which held that children in the certified class are "citizens at birth." The White House called her an "activist" Biden appointee.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    Feb. 19, 2025 — Trump's first try at narrowing birthright citizenship drew a nationwide class action. It covered the U.S.-born children the order would exclude. In June, the Supreme Court held in Barbara v. Trump that those children are citizens at birth. Aug. 6 — The White House issued a second, narrower order. It stripped citizenship from U.S.-born children in "alien enemies" and "birth tourism" cases, sending the fight back to Judge Boardman's court.

    • Order signed Aug. 6, 2026; ruling issued Sept. 3, 2026.
    • Ruling runs 35 pages and rests on the Supreme Court's June decision in Barbara v. Trump.
    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times, starting Sep 3.

    1. Federal judge blocks Trump's Aug. 6 order narrowing birthright citizenship, calling it "almost certainly unconstitutional"
    2. UpdateJudge Boardman blocks Trump's Aug. 6 birthright citizenship order as "almost certainly unconstitutional" — this issue

  2. IMF weighs a permanent Caracas office and Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Venezuela to sell the oil deal

    REASONUpdate

    The IMF is weighing a permanent Caracas office, and Energy Secretary Chris Wright flew to Venezuela to promote the 17-field oil concession, which holds about a fifth of the country's reserves. Trump says elections there are not close, and businessman Alejandro Betancourt's ties to the deal draw criticism.

    On Sep. 2 the Pentagon's Office of Strategic Capital took a 35% passive stake in North American Blue Energy Partners, the company holding 100-year rights to 17 Venezuelan oil fields.

    • US passive equity stake in North American Blue Energy Partners: 35%
    • Concession covers 17 fields, about one-fifth of Venezuela's total oil reserves

  3. Leon Black skipped his Epstein deposition and sued House Oversight to void the subpoenas

    NBC NEWS

    Black's name shows up more than 300 times in the Epstein files released by the DOJ. He says the committee cannot make him testify. He also says it cannot demand his nondisclosure agreements. Chairman James Comer (Rep-R Kentucky) talked to lawyers. He is now weighing a contempt referral.

    • Black says he paid Epstein for wealth management advisory work.
    • Comer said no other billionaire or political figure called in for an interview or deposition has sued the committee.
    • Committee says survivors told it directly that Black was involved in the abuse of women.

  4. Excavation for Trump's 250-foot arch near Arlington starts within two weeks, with a lawsuit pending

    NBC NEWS

    The 'Great Triumphal Arch' would rise at Memorial Circle, between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Building it would take two to three years. The money comes from funds earmarked for the National Endowment for the Humanities, and the suit says Congress never approved it.

    • Height: 250 feet
    • Construction timeline: two to three years, per CBS News
    • Funding: earmarked from the NEH, per Politico

  5. Treasury proposes stripping tax exemption from 18,000 schools that use race in admissions or aid

    REUTERS

    Treasury and the IRS proposed a rule Thursday, Sept. 3. It could strip tax breaks from about 18,000 private schools and colleges. The rule targets race-based preferences in admissions, scholarships or other policies. It is not final. The count covers schools the rule could reach, not schools found to discriminate. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said such practices are discriminatory. Calling them "equitable, inclusive, or diversity-enhancing" does not change that, he said.

    • About 18,000 institutions covered, by Treasury's estimate
    • Would take effect after May 2027 only if the rule is finalized

  6. White House tells agencies they may stop lending artifacts and grants to the Smithsonian

    THE HILL

    The letter says agencies "cannot in good conscience continue to support the Smithsonian." It blames "current leadership." The cutoff covers loaned artifacts, help with buying, and grants the agencies hand out by choice. Each one is leverage. Congress still sends the institution money every year.

    • The White House Domestic Policy Council report behind the demand runs 162 pages.
    • The Smithsonian declined to comment. Its history museum director says the report "does not fairly or accurately capture the museum's exhibits."

  7. US diesel hits a record $5.82 a gallon, up 53% since the Iran war began

    CBS NEWS

    The Sept. 3 record beats the June 2022 high, and a Brown University tracker puts the added fuel cost at $741 per household since the fighting started in late February.

    • Regular gasoline national average: $4.14 a gallon
    • Brent crude reached $97 a barrel this week
    • Analysts expect elevated prices until shipping normalizes through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of world oil supply

  8. Jeffries refers Golden and Gluesenkamp Perez to caucus rules panel for helping the GOP pass a rule 210-208

    FOX NEWS

    Jeffries sent the matter to the committee on caucus rules for "further discussion and action" but named no penalty. Golden's office said his rule vote was about advancing the Northeast Lobstermen Protection Act for his district.

    The two votesH.Res. 1499 cleared the House 210-208 with the two Democrats' votes.3 details
    • H.Res. 1499 cleared the House 210-208 with the two Democrats' votes.
    • The House then passed the GOP bill penalizing universities that boycott Israel 237-169.
    • 33 Democrats crossed over on that bill and face no referral.

  9. Fired DOJ pardon attorney sues over refusing to restore Mel Gibson's gun rights

    REUTERS

    Former pardon attorney Liz Oyer sued the Justice Department and Attorney General Todd Blanche on Wednesday, Sept. 2, over her March 2025 firing. She says she was pushed out for refusing to back restoring Mel Gibson's gun rights, a request she calls a political favor tied to Gibson's ties to Trump. The department has not responded.

  10. US deported 101 people to Haiti Thursday, Sept. 3, its third weekly flight after years of monthly ones

    AP

    The flights land at Cap-Haitien because Port-au-Prince's airport is too dangerous, with gangs holding about 70% of the capital.

    • 101 people removed on Thursday's flight, Sept. 3 — the third consecutive Thursday flight
    • Gangs control roughly 70% of Port-au-Prince
    • More than 3,050 people killed in Haiti from January to June, per the UN

  11. German police arrest 2 over attack on a Munich weapons maker, days after blaming Russia for a Leipzig drone plot

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    German police have arrested two people over an attack on a weapons maker in Munich. German officials say the country faces repeated Russian "hybrid warfare" — not war, but a steady run of sabotage.

    The rest of itGerman officials have blamed Russia for a drone plot near Leipzig Airport2 details
    • German officials have blamed Russia for a drone plot near Leipzig Airport
    • Russia has closed German cultural centers

  12. Zelensky says Witkoff and Kushner will visit Kyiv in coming days, their first trip to Ukraine

    KYIV INDEPENDENT

    Zelensky said the two US envoys are also expected to return to Moscow to restart stalled peace talks. Ukraine is ready to meet them "at the appropriate level and for substantive discussions," he said.

  13. Israel says it cleared and is demolishing a Hezbollah tunnel network under Lebanon's Ali Taher Ridge

    @MANNIEFABIAN

    The IDF's 36th Division said the tunnel network held command centers, weapons rooms, generator rooms, living quarters, showers and a kitchen. Fighters could stay underground for long stretches. It all rests on one Israeli military statement. Hezbollah and the Lebanese government have not responded, and no one has confirmed the claims independently.

    • The IDF says the tunnels were built over two decades
    • The 36th Division ran the clearing operation

Elections22 races

The midterms · 60 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
today · 7-day panel

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 85%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 52%, Kalshi 48%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 84.5–89.5%
90%85%chance Democrats take it · 5.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 90% and Kalshi 85%.
U.S. Senate — Republicans retain it, 48.5–52.5%
52%48%chance Democrats take it · 4.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 52% and Kalshi 48%.

No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only

How to read thisthe contract, the key, and the week panel

Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.

  • two venues, priced separately
  • shaded = how far apart they are
  • 50% — control flips here
  • where it stood 7 days ago
  • the last 7 days, on its own scale
  • Polymarket, solid
  • Kalshi, dashed

Both lines in a week panel are the same contract, priced by two venues — not one line per party. Its colour is whose chance the bar is measuring, which is why a panel can be blue while the verdict beside it reads Republicans favoured.

The 3 closest of 22 races. Open one, or all of them — every race is on the page either way.

  • uTexas SenateTalarico50.5%Paxton51.5%books splitKen Paxton 50.5%▲0.3James Talarico 49.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    Ken Paxton (R) faces James Talarico (D).

    The only race here where the two venues do not agree on who is ahead.

    The books name different leaders

    Texas Senate

    Each line is one book’s lead — the gap between the two candidates, signed. Zero is a tie, and the two venues are on opposite sides of it.

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp

    Texas Senate. Lead in percentage points, positive to Ken Paxton. Kalshi: Paxton ahead by 3 points. Polymarket: Talarico ahead by 1 point. Every day is in the table below.

    Paxton aheadTalarico ahead5%tied5%7d agotodayPaxton +3%KalshiTalarico +1%Polymarket

    today

    • Paxton+3%Kalshi
    • Talarico+1%Polymarket
    • Paxton49.5%Polymarket
    • Paxton51.5%Kalshi
    • Talarico50.5%Polymarket
    • Talarico48.5%Kalshi

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. The lead is the gap between the two, in points. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • xOhio SenateSherrod Brown 54.5%▲0.4Jon Husted 45.8%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 47.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sOhio governorAmy Acton 56.5%▲1.4Vivek Ramaswamy 44.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 55.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate8 of 10

  • vAlaska SenateMary Peltola 65.0%▲1.2Dan Sullivan 35.3%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 63.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 34.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 93.47%▲0.7Collins 6.50%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 93.45%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.4%, Kalshi 6.6%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wIowa SenateAshley Hinson 63.5%▲4.0Josh Turek 37.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 63%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMaine SenateTroy Jackson 69.0%▲1.8Susan Collins 31.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 69.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rMichigan SenateEl-Sayed refuses to disavow Hasan Piker, offers his 3 million followers a "pathway" into his Senate campaignAbdul El-Sayed 64.0%▲1.4Mike Rogers 36.3%

    WASHINGTON EXAMINER: El-Sayed won't disavow Hasan Piker, and invites the streamer's followers into his Senate campaign

    Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI) said he wants to offer Piker's audience "a pathway into an electoral movement." It would be a path that "disavows the things that I disagree with," he said. He spoke weeks after about 400 Jewish Michigan Democrats signed a letter backing his Republican opponent, Mike Rogers (R-MI). Major donors were among them.

    • 400 Jewish Michigan Democrats signed the letter backing Rogers.
    • Piker on the fight: "I have become this media cycle's 'trans athletes' or 'migrant caravan.'"

    Michigan's Democratic Senate nominee resisted pressure from Senate Democrats to cut ties with the streamer.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35.5%, Kalshi 37.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 69.3%Dan Osborn 30.8%▲0.6

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 69.0%, Kalshi 69.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 31.0%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 82.5%17.5%▲1.9Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) leads the unresolved Democratic primary; John E. Sununu (R) leads the unresolved Republican primary.

    Neither nomination is official yet, though the market already treats both as decided — the Democratic side lost about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 82.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 17.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 91.3%8.7%Whatley▲0.2

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.1%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 8.8%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors11 of 12

  • agAlaska governorBernadette Wilson 33.00%66.2%Begich 0.75%▲2.3

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: Begich is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 32.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.25%, Kalshi 0.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aiArizona governorKatie Hobbs 87.0%13.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • amFlorida governorByron Donalds 81.0%19.3%▲0.5Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zGeorgia governorKeisha Lance Bottoms 58.0%Rick Jackson 41.5%▲1.0

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) faces Rick Jackson (R).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 57.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 42.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afIowa governorRob Sand 77.0%▲2.2Zach Lahn 24.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 89.0%11.3%James▲0.7

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 88%; John James (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNevada governorJoe Lombardo 59.0%Aaron Ford 41.0%▲0.5

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.17%Blakeman 5.60%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.50%, Kalshi 93.85%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.0%, Kalshi 6.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • alPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 96.95%▲1.1Garrity 2.65%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.8%, Kalshi 97.1%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.15%, Kalshi 3.15%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajTexas governorGreg Abbott 81.3%19.5%▲2.7Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 81.2%, Kalshi 81.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 81.0%▲1.3Tiffany 19.5%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 82.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Also in elections4

  • nDOJ asks the Supreme Court to unblock the USPS mail-ballot rule, one day before ballots go out

    CBS NEWS: DOJ asks the Supreme Court to unblock the USPS mail-ballot rule, one day before ballots go out

    The administration told the Supreme Court that Judge Indira Talwani's block on the Aug. 21 rule — which includes a federal portal for voter data — risks "sowing confusion," while election officials say the requirements cannot be implemented before the first state starts mailing ballots on Sept. 4.

    [PREVIOUSLY]

    On Sept. 1, a federal judge left the new Postal Service mail-ballot requirements blocked, finding the agency likely had no authority to issue the rule at all, and set a Sept. 3 hearing on a longer freeze.

    • USPS published the rule on Aug. 21, 2026.
    • The first state begins mailing ballots to voters Friday, Sept. 4, 2026.
    • Jackson set a Tuesday deadline for states to respond.

    Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson gave states until Tuesday to respond.

  • oMissouri Supreme Court votes 7-0 to block the GOP House map for November

    AP: Missouri Supreme Court votes 7-0 to block the GOP House map for November

    Missouri will vote in November on its 2022 map — 6 Republican and 2 Democratic seats — after the court ruled a referendum backed by more than 300,000 signatures must go to voters. That likely saves Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver's Kansas City district. The state attorney general said he will appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

    The 2022 map governs the midterms while a citizen referendum goes on the ballot.

  • pMaryland's top court puts a Democratic redistricting amendment on the November ballot

    NBC NEWS: Maryland's top court puts a Democratic redistricting amendment on the November ballot

    The court reversed two lower-court rulings and put the amendment on the ballot with a rewritten summary. If voters pass it, Democrats could redraw districts in 2028. The target would be the state's one GOP-held US House seat. Democrats already hold 7 of 8.

    The measure eases the state's congressional map rules; it does not touch this year's map.

  • qMissouri GOP candidate Thomas Ross charged with plotting to plant cocaine on the rival he beat by 33 votes

    CBS NEWS: Missouri GOP candidate Thomas Ross charged with plotting to plant cocaine on the rival he beat by 33 votes

    Ross, 37, is charged with federal conspiracy to distribute drugs. His former campaign manager told the FBI that Ross asked him to plant cocaine and Adderall on primary opponent Louise Secker. State GOP chairman Peter Kinder wants Ross off the November ballot before the Sept. 8 withdrawal deadline.

    • Ross beat Secker by 33 votes in the August primary.
    • Ross's reported instruction to the campaign manager: "If you can pull it off ... pull it off."
    • Kinder: "The circumstances of his arrest are serious and deeply troubling."

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 3, 7:54 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.