Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Saturday

Two helmeted workers operate equipment amid concrete columns, large pipes, scaffolding, pallets, and construction materials at an industrial site.
ABC News
1usInflation and the Fed

U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%

Revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August, turning July into a 10,000-job loss. This is the last jobs report before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Tech employment is down 69,000 over the past year, per Joseph Politano.

ContextBLS says payrolls grew an average of 45,000 a month over the past 12 months. Since 1990, a 12-month gain as small as July's 316,000 has come only during or right after the 2008 and 2020 recessions. First-time jobless claims were 197,000 in the week ended Sept. 26, per Bloomberg.

PLATYPUS ECONOMICS10 sources

2not newslongform

10 House Blue Dog Democrats endorse the Senate's bipartisan permitting bill as environmental groups organize to kill it

A transcript of the opponents' call quotes an organizer saying the goal is "to stop this bill, not to make it better."

How the last four permitting pushes ended: 2005: Congress let FERC override states that stall on power lines; a federal appeals court gutted that power in 2009, and FERC has never used it 2022: Joe Manchin's permitting deal was stripped from a September funding bill after it could not reach 60 votes 2024: The Barrasso-Manchin bill cleared committee 15-4 and died with no floor vote

ContextShelley Moore Capito (Sen-R West Virginia), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) introduced the 417-page bill Sept. 30; it cuts the window to sue over a project to 150 days from up to six years now and lets FERC (the federal grid regulator) approve a power line a state has stalled on for a year. It needs 60 Senate votes, and no vote will come before the Nov. 3 midterms.

@SIEGELSCRIBE4 sources

Saturday · The daily brief

Oct 32026

2 leads33 briefs10 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary2 stories

News news1

  1. U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%Revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August, turning July into a 10,000-job loss. This is the last jobs report before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Not news news1

  1. 10 House Blue Dog Democrats endorse the Senate's bipartisan permitting bill as environmental groups organize to kill itA transcript of the opponents' call quotes an organizer saying the goal is "to stop this bill, not to make it better."

News news1 story

PLATYPUS ECONOMICSInflation and the Fed

U.S. employers added 29,000 jobs in September, and unemployment rose to 4.2%

Revisions cut 60,000 jobs from July and August, turning July into a 10,000-job loss. This is the last jobs report before the Nov. 3 midterms.

Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, the Labor Department said Friday, Oct. 2. Forecasters expected 84,000. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in August. Average hourly pay reached $37.81, up 3% in a year, which is below August's 3.4% inflation rate. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett credited the 485,000 people who joined the labor force, saying they expect to "make so much money." ([TS]Pay adjusted for inflation has fallen year over year for five straight months, per BLS.)

Where September's jobs came and went:

Health care
+16,700
Government, mostly local
-17,000
Tech
-17,000

Tech employment is down 69,000 over the past year, per Joseph Politano.

Quick bites11

  1. Attorney General Letitia James opens criminal probe of alleged Cornell fraternity gang rape

    POLITICOUpdate

    Kathy Hochul (Gov-D New York) appointed James special prosecutor. James announced an 'active criminal investigation.' Hochul blamed Cornell police for sending an incomplete record. She also blamed the DA for never interviewing the accuser. Hochul vowed to close the state's 'voluntary intoxication' loophole in rape law in January.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

    In October 2024 a Cornell student says she was gang-raped at the Chi Phi fraternity house. Oct. 1 — Cornell agreed to an outside review of its handling as the Tompkins County DA reopened the criminal case, saying he had never seen her rape claim. More than 50 Chi Phi brothers were in a Snapchat group chat during the alleged assault, per ABC News. Trump called James 'corrupt' and said 'whoever she's looking at' won't 'get a fair shake.'

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. Cornell agrees to outside review of how it handled a student's gang rape lawsuit against 7 Chi Phi members
    2. UpdateAttorney General Letitia James opens criminal probe of alleged Cornell fraternity gang rape — this issue

  2. Christa Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence

    THE GUARDIANUpdate

    Pike is unconscious on a ventilator, her lawyers say. They filed an emergency motion alleging misplaced IV lines sent pentobarbital into her tissue instead of her bloodstream. The execution team spent about an hour on the attempt. By her attorney's count, they used at least seven needles on her left arm.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On the evening of Sept. 30, the Supreme Court lifted a 2-1 6th Circuit stay issued about an hour before Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, with the three liberal justices dissenting. Pike, 50, then survived two pentobarbital doses after roughly an hour of IV attempts and was hospitalized in critical condition, and Tennessee canceled its last execution of 2026.

    It is Tennessee's second failed execution this year, after Tony Carruthers in May (The Hill). The Death Penalty Information Center counts 64 botched U.S. executions since 1982, 51 of them lethal injections.

    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
    2. UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
    3. UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence — this issue

  3. Trump expected to name Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as White House AI czar

    WSJ

    Bloomberg, the New York Times and CNN report the same expected pick. Bloomberg's headline says safety fears over AI are rising.

  4. Federal judge finds warrantless Flock plate search unconstitutional

    404 MEDIACourts and the adminis…

    U.S. District Judge Sara Hill in Oklahoma called Flock's plate-reader network "a type of indiscriminate mass surveillance." A deputy had searched a driver's California plate without a warrant or probable cause. The ruling binds no other court.

    • Police run more than 100,000 warrantless Flock searches a month, per audit logs reviewed by 404 Media.
    • The Washington Post also reported the ruling on Oct. 2.

  5. Justice Samuel Alito, 76, says he considered retiring after last term but stayed and will reconsider yearly

    THE HILL

    Alito told CBS he "thought about" leaving but believed he could still make a valuable contribution, and he called harsh criticism of the Court from Presidents Biden and Trump "quite damaging."

    What else Alito saidOn Dobbs: "it required courage to go ahead with that because of the implications."3 details
    • On Dobbs: "it required courage to go ahead with that because of the implications."
    • On rulings: "There are cases that have resulted in the loss of old friendships."
    • He described threats against justices as a danger.

  6. Supreme Court opens its term Oct. 5 with 30 cases, after rulings against Trump on tariffs and more

    PBS NEWSHOURCourts and the adminis…

    The 30 cases the Court has taken so far cover climate liability, guns, immigration and religious liberty.

    Where Trump stands with the CourtThe Court ruled against Trump on tariffs (Feb. 20), birthright citizenship (June 30), mail-in voting (Sept. 14) and a Fed firing.3 details
    • The Court ruled against Trump on tariffs (Feb. 20), birthright citizenship (June 30), mail-in voting (Sept. 14) and a Fed firing.
    • Trump to Time: "I gave them the position of a lifetime, and they vote against me often."
    • His administration has still won many rulings on the emergency docket.
    Ongoing12

    This story has run 13 times over 38 days, starting Aug 26.

    1. USPS violated a court order to finalize Trump’s mail-ballot rule; judge allows publication
    2. Judge clears Trump’s USPS mail-ballot rule; 24 states and D.C. sue hours later
    3. UpdateJudge blocks USPS from rejecting noncompliant mail ballots for 14 days; DOJ appeals
    4. UpdateMissouri asks the Supreme Court to reinstate its 7-1 congressional map three days before the ballot deadline
    5. Kavanaugh leaves Missouri's 6-2 map in place; hours later a federal judge orders the state to run the 7-1 map
    6. UpdateStates ask Supreme Court to keep new USPS ballot requirements blocked
    7. Update3-0 First Circuit keeps Trump mail-ballot rule blocked as 7 Republican officials oppose pre-November start
    8. UpdateSupreme Court leaves Trump's USPS mail-ballot rules blocked for Nov. 3 midterms in apparent 7-2 vote
    9. UpdateMail ballots will move under pre-2026 rules on Nov. 3 as the administration stands down
    10. UpdateSupreme Court lets states resume checking voter rolls against Trump's expanded federal citizenship database while the case is appealed
    11. Supreme Court votes 6-3 to let Trump deport migrants to third countries without notice or a chance to raise torture fears
    12. Supreme Court agrees to decide whether ICE can jail immigrants who entered illegally without a bond hearing
    13. Supreme Court opens its term Oct. 5 with 30 cases, after rulings against Trump on tariffs and more — this issue

  7. Agency that tried to shut Voice of America is now rehiring staff and buying equipment, IG finds

    POLITICO

    A State Department inspector general report says the U.S. Agency for Global Media is buying new equipment and rehiring staff. It is also paying 420 employees about $1.6 million a week to stay on leave. The report says the agency could not show it weighed the costs and benefits of the cuts.

    • Administration's projected cost to shut the agency down in fiscal 2026: $153 million.
    • Funding Congress gave the agency for fiscal 2026: $643 million.
    • Leave pay for 420 idled employees: $3.2 million every two weeks.

  8. Treasury sanctions two French charities and three people over $2M+ sent to Hamas; six arrested

    THE GUARDIANGaza and Hamas

    The Justice Department unsealed an indictment against alleged organizer Saleem Alzaq, which says his network collected about $1.7 million through fake humanitarian fundraising and cryptocurrency, slightly below Treasury's $2 million-plus total for 2020–2026.

    • About $1.5 million was allegedly raised after the Oct. 7, 2023 attack.
    • Tampa-area defendant Raed Yousef allegedly gave the network nearly $50,000 (single-outlet figure, Washington Examiner).

  9. Defense Secretary Hegseth gives all troops a day off by Oct. 15 to register to vote

    THE HILL

    Hegseth said about 300,000 troops did not register two years ago, and about two-thirds of active-duty members were registered in 2024, down 3 points from 2020.

    • Hegseth said the stand-down will repeat in future even-year elections.
    • Hegseth: "Now we're not telling you who to vote for, but we will give you every opportunity to do so."

  10. US refuses Saudi requests for airstrikes on Houthis, sends targeting data for Saudi offensive instead

    AXIOSIran war

    In the past two weeks the US military gave the Saudis more than 200 Houthi targets. This is the second time in recent weeks Washington has said no to Saudi requests for US strikes, according to US officials who spoke to Axios.

    • A US official: the US "is not going to take kinetic action for now."
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 22 days, starting Sep 11.

    1. CNN: More than 100 US advisers support Saudi campaign against Houthis
    2. UpdateHouthis claim new missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia after taking Perim Island in offensive that killed more than 1,500 soldiers
    3. US refuses Saudi requests for airstrikes on Houthis, sends targeting data for Saudi offensive instead — this issue

  11. Trump leaves open invoking the Insurrection Act around the midterms

    CNN2026 midterms

    In a Sept. 28 Oval Office interview with TIME, published Thursday, Trump would not rule out invoking the Insurrection Act or declaring a national emergency around the Nov. 3 elections.

    • "I'm not committing to anything. We're going to see how it plays out in court," he said, The Hill reported.
    • The Insurrection Act lets a president use the military or federalize the National Guard to put down what he deems an insurrection.
    • On Aug. 31, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine wrote to Sen. Elissa Slotkin that the military has "no plans" to send federal troops or federalized Guard to polling places.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 31 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 94%, Kalshi 92%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 65%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 91.85–93.50%
94%92%chance Democrats take it · 1.6pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 94% and Kalshi 92%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5–64.5%
65%63%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 65% and Kalshi 63%.

3 closest races

  • tGeorgia governorRick Jackson 52.0%▲4.2Keisha Lance Bottoms 48.0%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 48.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uNevada governorJoe Lombardo 52.0%▲0.3Aaron Ford 48.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Joe Lombardo (R) faces Aaron Ford (D).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pIowa SenateAshley Hinson 56.0%▲1.5Josh Turek 43.8%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 43.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 12 still in doubt · Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • oAlaska SenateMary Peltola 70.5%▲1.9Sullivan 30.0%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • wGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.63%▲1.5Collins 3.55%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 97.20%, Kalshi 96.05%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 2.9%, Kalshi 4.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • lMaine SenateSusan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied in Maine's Senate race, CBS/YouGov poll findsTroy Jackson 59.0%▲1.1Susan Collins 40.5%

    CBS NEWS: Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson are tied in Maine's Senate race, CBS/YouGov poll finds

    In the Sept. 23–Oct. 1 poll of 1,114 registered voters, Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) wins about one in five Trump disapprovers, while Troy Jackson (D-ME) still suffers from primary discontent.

    Inside the poll:

    • About 10% of Maine voters say they could still change their minds.
    • The tie holds even though national conditions favor Democrats, per CBS.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 40.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 72.3%▲1.4Mike Rogers 27.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 72.0%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 73.0%▲3.2Dan Osborn 26.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead after Osborn lost about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 72.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 25.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 86.5%▲1.013.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 86.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 13.5%, Kalshi 13.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.22%▲1.2Whatley 4.50%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 94.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4%, Kalshi 5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rOhio SenateSherrod Brown 59.0%▲0.7Jon Husted 41.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 58.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • nTexas SenateJames Talarico 62.0%▲1.7Ken Paxton 38.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • aaAlaska governor17.50%81.6%WilsonBegich 0.93%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 17.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.05%, Kalshi 0.80%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • acArizona governorKatie Hobbs 88.5%▲0.211.3%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 12.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agFlorida governorByron Donalds 77.5%▲0.923.0%Jolly

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zIowa governorRob Sand 84.5%Lahn 15.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 84.5%, Kalshi 84.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 16.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.90%▲0.2James 6.05%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 92.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 4.55%, Kalshi 7.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.28%▲0.6Blakeman 4.72%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.50%, Kalshi 95.05%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.50%, Kalshi 4.95%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • mOhio governorAmy Acton 62.0%▲0.3Vivek Ramaswamy 37.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.17%Garrity 2.90%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.85%, Kalshi 97.50%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.6%, Kalshi 3.2%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adTexas governorGreg Abbott 81.03%▲0.819.00%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 82.55%, Kalshi 79.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 17.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%19.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 3, 1:13 AM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.

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10 House Blue Dog Democrats endorse the Senate's bipartisan permitting bill as environmental groups organize to kill it

A transcript of the opponents' call quotes an organizer saying the goal is "to stop this bill, not to make it better."

The House Blue Dog Coalition, a group of 10 moderate Democrats, endorsed the Senate's bipartisan permitting bill, which would speed federal approval of power lines, pipelines and other energy projects.

The endorsement. "Congress must clear the logjam and move permitting reform forward, not punt the issue to a future Congress," the coalition wrote.

The opposition. Environmental groups held a call to recruit undecided Democrats against the bill, according to a transcript Punchbowl News reporter Josh Siegel obtained.

The data-center fight. Opponents call the bill a giveaway to data centers. Permitting advocate Thomas Hochman says the opposite: "This bill would enact far stricter, costlier rules for data centers in particular." Utility critic David Pomerantz says it means "more grid investment" but "structurally less control for the monopoly utilities."

How the last four permitting pushes ended2005: Congress let FERC override states that stall on power lines; a federal appeals court gutted that power in 2009, and FERC has…3 details
  • 2005: Congress let FERC override states that stall on power lines; a federal appeals court gutted that power in 2009, and FERC has never used it
  • 2022: Joe Manchin's permitting deal was stripped from a September funding bill after it could not reach 60 votes
  • 2024: The Barrasso-Manchin bill cleared committee 15-4 and died with no floor vote