Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Wednesday

Omar sits on a black leather sofa wearing a black headwrap, dark sweater and multicolored beaded necklaces.
Fox News
1usUpdatecontested

Federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her

The disclosures under review valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. Omar has not been charged with anything.

On Monday, Oct. 12, Homeland Security Investigations agents searched Omar's Washington home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before the Nov. 3 election. The case reportedly turns on papers her late father filled out when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, at 17.

ContextOmar came to the U.S. from Somalia as a 12-year-old refugee in 1995 and became a naturalized citizen in 2000. A naturalized citizen cannot be deported unless she first loses citizenship, either through a civil denaturalization suit in federal court, where the government must prove illegal procurement or willful misrepresentation by clear and convincing evidence, or through a criminal conviction for unlawfully obtaining it (8 U.S.C. §1451). A search warrant needs only probable cause. Her disclosures, now under Pirro's review, valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. She has not been charged with a crime.

FOX NEWS14 sources

2usUpdateRussia diesel deal

12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel

U.S. diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday, Oct. 13, to their highest in weeks, as doubts mounted that the deal would bring prices down, per NBC News.

- Sept. 15 — Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce; Kyiv called it conditional. - Sept. 16–19 — Congress passed and Trump signed a law allowing steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil; the House vote was 262-159. - Sept. 21–23 — Trump pressed Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Zelensky proposed a mutual halt on energy strikes. - Oct. 4 — Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to peace talks; buyers include business partners of envoys Witkoff and Kushner. - Oct. 10 — Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump said Russia would send diesel to the U.S. - Oct. 11 — Russian glide bombs killed 20 in Zaporizhzhia; Putin told Trump talks would not resume soon. - Oct. 12 — Four Republican senators joined Democrats demanding a reversal; Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) backed the deal. AAA put diesel at $6.27 a gallon, against $3.67 a year earlier. - ClearView Energy's Kevin Book estimates 5 to 20 cents a gallon of pump relief by the end of 2026, per Bloomberg.

ContextThe 2022 ban passed the House 414-17 and the Senate unanimously. It can end only if the president certifies that Russia has withdrawn and stopped fighting on terms Ukraine accepts. He must then report to four congressional committees 45 days ahead and wait 90 more days. The senators say none of that happened. U.S. retail diesel averaged $6.20 a gallon on Oct. 5, 2026, per the Energy Information Administration, against $3.49 on May 26, 2025.

TIME12 sources

3usUpdateHouthis and the Saudis

Saudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13

Trump accuses the Houthis of pushing up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms; a Houthi official threatens U.S. interests if America joins the fight.

- Sept. 15 — Houthis seized two more Red Sea islands; drone damage put Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, carrying about 4 million barrels a day, out for weeks. - Sept. 16–17 — Aramco halted loadings at Yanbu, its last open terminal; supertanker hire topped $1 million a day and U.S. crude hit $107.02. - Sept. 19 — Trump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving the Saudis intelligence and targeting data instead. - Sept. 20–21 — Houthi missiles burned a fuel depot near Riyadh's airport; Saudi Arabia intercepted another missile aimed at the capital. - Sept. 23 — Saudi Arabia tested the East-West pipeline for a restart; oil fell below $98. - Oct. 10–11 — Strikes on Riyadh's airport killed at least 14, including an American; Trump said the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes. - Oct. 12 — A new drone-and-cruise-missile attack hit; Saudi Arabia began investigating its air-defense failure and closed the airport until Oct. 17.

ContextIf Trump joins, the 1973 War Powers Resolution requires a report to Congress within 48 hours and an end within 60 days absent congressional authorization; its emergency exception covers attacks on the U.S. or its forces, not an ally. Biden cited his own constitutional powers to strike the Houthis in January 2024, as did Trump in March 2025.

CBS NEWS13 sources

4usUpdateGuilfoyle inquiry

Kimberly Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece after the White House asks her to go over an alleged $100,000 credit-card request to a donor

She called the allegations false and gave no date for leaving; she served less than a year in Athens.

- Oct. 7 — Reports said Guilfoyle asked donor Eric Deters to wire $100,000 to her Amex bill before her 2025 confirmation hearing, the same total as the $50,000 in back pay plus $50,000 for her services listed in his June 11, 2025 letter. The same day, in Athens, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called her "a strong ambassador." - Oct. 8 — Deters called it "pay to play" and said he never paid. Her lawyer called the texts fake, and House Democrats demanded her records by Oct. 22. - Oct. 9–10 — NBC News, citing two people familiar, reported an inspector general investigation. The Journal published texts in which she offered donors access to Trump. - Oct. 11–12 — Trump and Rubio weighed firing her. Trump said "we're not happy," and her lawyers said Deters owed her about $150,000 for speeches and consulting, vs. the $100,000 bill he says he refused to pay.

ContextFederal bribery law (18 U.S.C. §201) covers nominees as well as officials. It counts a solicitation for an official act even if nothing is paid, and it carries up to 15 years. But under the Supreme Court's 2016 McDonnell ruling, arranging access alone is not an "official act." Her February 2025 ethics disclosure names neither Deters nor his Freedom Fest event as a source of pay. Deters says he paid her about $300,000 over the years.

PBS NEWSHOUR13 sources

5usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Five Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv without a U.S. launch warning; Trump says intelligence sharing continues

A second night of strikes, Tuesday, Oct. 13, killed one person in Kyiv and hit the Darnytska CHP-4 power plant, two days after Trump announced an energy ceasefire.

Over the weekend of Saturday, Oct. 10 and Sunday, Oct. 11, the State Department and Pentagon warned Kyiv that it could lose U.S. intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless it stopped striking Russian energy sites, and the U.S. military told Ukrainian commanders directly. On Sunday, Oct. 11, Trump announced an energy ceasefire that he said took effect immediately; he gave no terms, and Ukraine backed it while asking for details.

ContextThe missing warning raised fears that Washington had stopped sharing intelligence with Kyiv. It has not, according to Trump, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha and sources who spoke to the Kyiv Independent. The U.S. reportedly said it simply did not see the launch. The strikes came after Trump announced an energy ceasefire (a pause in attacks on power plants and the grid). In the two days after that announcement, Russia hit 19 Ukrainian regions, per the Washington Examiner.

PBS NEWSHOUR11 sources

6usUpdateIran war

Iran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's count

Britain's UKMTO shipping office counted six vessels attacked on Sunday, Oct. 11 alone; the previous two-week high was 13 ships, in early March.

- Sept. 14 — An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing one; Trump wouldn't say whether the U.S. fired it. - Sept. 20 — A hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and a supertanker shortage began squeezing fuel supplies. - Sept. 23–27 — Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within a week if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; Trump rejected it. - Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms. - Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York. - Oct. 8 — Congressional researchers counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May. - Oct. 12 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the U.S. reply insufficient, said Tehran stopped responding, and threatened undersea cables and data centers.

ContextBefore the war, about 20 million barrels of oil a day crossed Hormuz in 2025 (IEA), and pipelines around the strait could carry 3.5 to 5.5 million more a day (IEA estimate); the U.S. emergency stockpile held 286.6 million barrels in September 2026 (Energy Department). Damage is often light: seven of ten ships attacked in the week to Oct. 9 kept sailing, per UKMTO, Britain's shipping-security office.

FINANCIAL TIMES5 sources

7us

Federal prosecutors charge ex-OpenAI engineer Abdulrahman Alfozan with hiding a recording device in an executive conference room

He faces up to five years in prison if convicted; a detention hearing is set for Oct. 19.

What the complaint cites: Security footage of him near the room, which he had no authority to enter. Prompts from a chatbot account tied to his spouse on building a hidden recorder, including the planted device's network ID. A second recorder found in his unattended bag on Oct. 5, per the Justice Department.

ContextThe closest precedent: ex-Google engineer Linwei Ding was convicted in January 2026 of stealing AI trade secrets for two Chinese companies, but on Aug. 20 a judge threw out his seven economic-espionage counts, finding no proof he meant to help China's government, per Reuters. In early 2023 a hacker took design details from an OpenAI employee forum; executives judged him a private individual and did not tell the FBI, The New York Times reported in July 2024. The wiretap law punishes the attempt, so prosecutors need not prove a usable recording was made.

BBC NEWS17 sources

Wednesday · The daily brief

Oct 142026

7 leads36 briefs26 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary7 stories

News news7

  1. Federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting herThe disclosures under review valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. Omar has not been charged with anything.
  2. 12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian dieselU.S. diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday, Oct. 13, to their highest in weeks, as doubts mounted that the deal would bring prices down, per NBC News.
  3. Saudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13Trump accuses the Houthis of pushing up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms; a Houthi official threatens U.S. interests if America joins the fight.
  4. Kimberly Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece after the White House asks her to go over an alleged $100,000 credit-card request to a donorShe called the allegations false and gave no date for leaving; she served less than a year in Athens.
  5. Five Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv without a U.S. launch warning; Trump says intelligence sharing continuesA second night of strikes, Tuesday, Oct. 13, killed one person in Kyiv and hit the Darnytska CHP-4 power plant, two days after Trump announced an energy ceasefire.
  6. Iran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's countBritain's UKMTO shipping office counted six vessels attacked on Sunday, Oct. 11 alone; the previous two-week high was 13 ships, in early March.
  7. Federal prosecutors charge ex-OpenAI engineer Abdulrahman Alfozan with hiding a recording device in an executive conference roomHe faces up to five years in prison if convicted; a detention hearing is set for Oct. 19.

News news7 stories

Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 13.

  1. Federal agents search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before her election
  2. UpdateFederal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her — this issue
FOX NEWSUpdate

Federal prosecutor Jeanine Pirro opens a review of Ilhan Omar's financial disclosures a day after agents searched her home; Trump says he takes 'no position' on deporting her

The disclosures under review valued husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. Omar has not been charged with anything.

Homeland Security Investigations agents (ICE's criminal-investigation arm) searched the Washington home of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) on Monday, Oct. 12, under a court-authorized warrant. The probe reportedly centers on immigration paperwork her late father filled out when she was a child. The search came 22 days before the Nov. 3 midterms.

The second probe. On Tuesday, Oct. 13, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro said her office is also examining Omar's financial disclosures.

The White House. Trump called Omar "a terrible person" and "a terrible congresswoman" but said "I don't take a position" on deporting her and that the case is up to the Justice Department.

The Justice Department. It rejected the claim that its policy bars investigative steps within 60 days of an election. ([TS]True to the letter: there's no fixed blackout, but DOJ's manual bars timing any step to sway an election.)

Omar. She called the search "an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement" and turned it into a fundraising appeal. Democrats say privately they expect more "October surprises."

Still open. Neither probe has produced a charge, and the reporting has not shown that the immigration case and the money review are connected.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

On Monday, Oct. 12, Homeland Security Investigations agents searched Omar's Washington home in a criminal immigration-fraud probe, 22 days before the Nov. 3 election. The case reportedly turns on papers her late father filled out when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, at 17.

BackgroundWhat DOJ's own rules require before searching a lawmaker's home3 facts
  • The Public Integrity Section in Washington must approve any warrant covering a member of Congress's property.
  • Prosecutors may never time a search, charge or statement to affect an election or a candidate.
  • Even the appearance of election timing requires a consultation with the Public Integrity Section first.

Red take

Jeanine Pirro, the U.S. attorney, is right to make Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Democrat, explain filings that value her husband's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024. Reading a form a congresswoman signed charges no one, and no fixed rule pauses it before a vote. Shelve it until after Nov. 3, and every incumbent learns her disclosures go unread while she is on a ballot.

Blue take

Announcing a money review of Ilhan Omar, the Minnesota Democrat, one day after agents searched her home and three weeks before the Nov. 3 midterms puts a charge in voters' heads that no prosecutor has filed. The Justice Department's own manual bars timing any step to sway an election, and her filings will read the same on Nov. 4. Waiting costs the case nothing; announcing now lets voters convict a candidate on suspicion alone.

Ongoing26 earlier updates49 days

This story has run 27 times over 49 days, starting Aug 26.

  1. CIA chief Ratcliffe makes rare Moscow visit
  2. CIA chief reportedly warned Moscow against a limited Russian attack on NATO
  3. CIA chief secretly met Russian intelligence officials in Moscow
  4. UpdateCIA chief told Moscow to end the Ukraine war before Russia’s military and economy worsen
  5. Russian drone hits ammunition depot near Kyiv, killing 38; four remain missing
  6. Russia's finance minister returned to the G20 in person for the first time since the Ukraine invasion
  7. Witkoff and Kushner meet Putin in Moscow Sept. 5, Zelensky in Kyiv Sept. 6, carrying a U.S. proposal to end the war
  8. UpdatePutin orders 72-hour halt to strikes on Kyiv while Witkoff and Kushner visit, after a three-hour Kremlin meeting
  9. UpdateWitkoff and Kushner hold first Kyiv talks of the war, agreeing on next steps but no terms; announcement promised in weeks
  10. UpdateWitkoff says Moscow-Kyiv trip produced 'substantive progress' on scheduling more talks, with no date set and no terms disclosed
  11. UpdateRussia resumed strikes on Kyiv after the truce, killing 7; Trump and Putin then talked for an hour
  12. UpdateTrump says Russia's president wants a Ukraine peace deal after their phone call
  13. House schedules vote next week on authorizing 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers
  14. UpdateVladimir Putin warned that sending European troops into Ukraine means war with Russia.
  15. Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce Kyiv calls conditional
  16. UpdateThe House voted 214-211 to advance 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  17. UpdateCongress sends Trump a bill letting him impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil
  18. UpdateTrump signs the bill authorizing 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil
  19. Trump and Zelensky agree to New York talks, expected Sept. 22
  20. UpdateZelensky asks Trump for a mutual halt on energy and port strikes
  21. Zelensky (President, Ukraine) urges countries to limit trade with Russia to cut war funding
  22. UpdatePutin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to US-Russia Ukraine talks; the buyers include Witkoff and Kushner business partners
  23. UpdateTreasury lifts U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump says Russia will send 4.8 million tons
  24. UpdateRussian glide bombs kill 20 in Zaporizhzhia a day after the U.S. suspended Russian diesel sanctions; Putin tells Trump talks won't resume soon
  25. UpdateFour Republican senators join Democrats in demanding Trump reverse his Russian diesel deal, saying he skipped steps the law requires
  26. UpdateTrump defends letting Russian diesel into the U.S. as analysts say the 300,000-ton first shipment is too small to lower prices
  27. Update12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel — this issue
TIMEUpdateRussia diesel deal

12 senators, six from each party, ask Trump to rescind his deal lifting U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel

U.S. diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday, Oct. 13, to their highest in weeks, as doubts mounted that the deal would bring prices down, per NBC News.

Twelve senators sent Donald Trump a letter on Tuesday, Oct. 13, demanding he rescind the deal that lifted U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel. They called it "a gift to our adversary and a betrayal of our Allies."

The signers. Richard Blumenthal (Sen-D Connecticut) led the letter. The six Republicans are Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina), Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine), Lisa Murkowski (Sen-R Alaska), Mitch McConnell (Sen-R Kentucky), John Cornyn (Sen-R Texas) and Alan Armstrong (Sen-R Oklahoma).

The law. Tillis and Lloyd Doggett (Rep-D Texas) say the waiver breaks the 2022 Ending Importation of Russian Oil Act, the law that banned Russian oil imports after the invasion of Ukraine. Doggett sponsored it and says Trump is "directly violating that law."

Trump's answer. He now says: "It's not a deal with me. It's a deal for the world. That's not a USA deal." ([TS]Treasury's own license lets Russian diesel be imported into the U.S. until April 7, 2027.)

The supply. Trump promised 300,000 tons of Russian diesel at once and 500,000 tons in November. Analysts put the best case at less than two weeks of U.S. diesel demand.

Catch upwhat happened before · 26 earlier issues
  • Sept. 15 — Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine energy truce; Kyiv called it conditional.
  • Sept. 16–19 — Congress passed and Trump signed a law allowing steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil; the House vote was 262-159.
  • Sept. 21–23 — Trump pressed Ukraine to stop hitting Russian refineries, citing diesel prices; Zelensky proposed a mutual halt on energy strikes.
  • Oct. 4 — Putin added a sale of Lukoil's foreign oil assets to peace talks; buyers include business partners of envoys Witkoff and Kushner.
  • Oct. 10 — Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel until April 7, 2027, after Trump said Russia would send diesel to the U.S.
  • Oct. 11 — Russian glide bombs killed 20 in Zaporizhzhia; Putin told Trump talks would not resume soon.
  • Oct. 12 — Four Republican senators joined Democrats demanding a reversal; Thomas Massie (Rep-R Kentucky) backed the deal. AAA put diesel at $6.27 a gallon, against $3.67 a year earlier.
  • ClearView Energy's Kevin Book estimates 5 to 20 cents a gallon of pump relief by the end of 2026, per Bloomberg.
25 earlier issues
Currently showing U.S. retail diesel, dollars per gallon, since January 2022
U.S. retail diesel, dollars per gallon, since January 2022
Diesel was already past its 2022 high before the dealLine chart of the U.S. average retail diesel price in nominal dollars per gallon, from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It plots the last weekly reading of each month from January 2022 to September 2026, plus Oct. 5, 2026, on a true time axis. The y-axis starts at $3.00 and has a break mark. A dashed horizontal line marks the $5.81 record from the week of June 20, 2022. Prices rose above $5 in 2022, then held a plateau of roughly $3.50 to $4 from mid-2023 to February 2026. They jumped from $3.81 on Feb. 23 to $5.40 on Mar. 30, 2026, then climbed above the 2022 line to $6.38 on Sept. 28 and $6.20 on Oct. 5. A dashed vertical marker at Oct. 10, 2026 shows when Treasury lifted sanctions on Russian diesel. No EIA reading after that date exists yet. The points are month-end samples, so the June 2022 point ($5.78) sits just below the weekly record, and Sept. 28 is not necessarily the highest weekly reading of 2026. Values are not adjusted for inflation.Diesel was already past its2022 high before the dealU.S. retail diesel, $ per gallon, nominalLast weekly reading of each month$6$5$4$320222023202420252026June 2022 high: $5.81Mar. 30: $5.40up from $3.81Sept. 28: $6.38$6.20Oct. 5Oct. 10:sanctionsliftedSource: U.S. Energy Information Admin.
U.S. retail diesel, dollars per gallon, since January 2022
Ongoing15 earlier updates35 days

This story has run 16 times over 35 days, starting Sep 9.

  1. Houthi missiles and drones hit 4 Saudi cities, wounding 73 and halting Aramco's 400,000-barrel-a-day Jazan refinery
  2. Houthis capture Yemen's Mokha from Saudi-backed forces 46 miles from Bab el-Mandeb
  3. UpdateHouthi forces captured Mokha and Perim island in the 28-kilometer Bab el-Mandeb strait.
  4. UpdateA day after the Bab el-Mandeb capture, maritime monitors have recorded no new transit halts
  5. UpdateSaudi Arabia shuts Hormuz-bypass pipeline, oil rises more than $3 with 4% of supply at risk
  6. UpdateHouthis seize two more Red Sea islands as Saudi pipeline faces 3-to-5-week outage
  7. UpdateSaudi Arabia suspends loadings at its last open oil terminal; September cargoes cancelled
  8. Attacks on Saudi export pipeline push WTI crude to $107.02 a barrel, a 30-day high
  9. UpdateHouthi missiles hit Riyadh, burning a fuel depot near King Khalid airport
  10. UpdateSaudi Arabia says it intercepted a Houthi missile aimed at Riyadh
  11. UpdateTrump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving Saudi Arabia intelligence and targeting data instead
  12. UpdateSaudi Arabia tested its shut east-west pipeline for a restart as oil fell below $98
  13. UpdateStrike on Riyadh airport kills 12, including an American; Trump says the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes on the Houthis
  14. UpdateRiyadh airport hit again Sunday, Oct. 11, killing one; Saturday's strike toll rises to at least 13, including an American
  15. UpdateSaudi Arabia investigates why its air defenses failed to stop the Houthi strike that killed at least 13 at Riyadh's airport
  16. UpdateSaudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13 — this issue
CBS NEWSUpdateHouthis and the Saudis

Saudi-led coalition bombs Houthi oil facilities and a fuel depot in Yemen after a Riyadh airport strike killed at least 13

Trump accuses the Houthis of pushing up oil prices before the Nov. 3 midterms; a Houthi official threatens U.S. interests if America joins the fight.

Saudi-led coalition jets struck Houthi-held oil facilities and a key fuel depot in Yemen, payback for the Houthi strike on Riyadh's King Khalid airport. The Houthis are the Iran-backed rebel group that holds much of Yemen. That Saturday, Oct. 10 strike killed at least 13, including an American, and injured more than 300, per AP; a second strike on Sunday, Oct. 11 killed one more, bringing the airport toll to at least 14. Houthi attacks kept coming.

Trump. On Truth Social, he accused the Houthis of trying to drive up oil prices before the midterms (the congressional elections on Tuesday, Nov. 3): "I'm not running in the Elections... but I'll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget!" He is not on the ballot but stays president after the vote. Brent, the global benchmark, settled at $105.69 a barrel on Tuesday, Oct. 13, a day after its highest close since Sept. 15; U.S. crude settled at $94.14, per Reuters.

The Houthis. An official told AFP that if the U.S. joins, "there will be a swift and painful response targeting the US and all its interests in the region."

Still open. The week's death toll. CBS counts at least 20 killed in Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia, including one American; NBC counts at least 14.

Catch upwhat happened before · 15 earlier issues
  • Sept. 15 — Houthis seized two more Red Sea islands; drone damage put Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, carrying about 4 million barrels a day, out for weeks.
  • Sept. 16–17 — Aramco halted loadings at Yanbu, its last open terminal; supertanker hire topped $1 million a day and U.S. crude hit $107.02.
  • Sept. 19 — Trump declined a prepared U.S. air campaign against the Houthis, giving the Saudis intelligence and targeting data instead.
  • Sept. 20–21 — Houthi missiles burned a fuel depot near Riyadh's airport; Saudi Arabia intercepted another missile aimed at the capital.
  • Sept. 23 — Saudi Arabia tested the East-West pipeline for a restart; oil fell below $98.
  • Oct. 10–11 — Strikes on Riyadh's airport killed at least 14, including an American; Trump said the U.S. "may" join Saudi strikes.
  • Oct. 12 — A new drone-and-cruise-missile attack hit; Saudi Arabia began investigating its air-defense failure and closed the airport until Oct. 17.
14 earlier issues
BackgroundWhat the U.S. has already sold Saudi Arabia to fight with2 facts
  • Saudi Arabia agreed earlier this year to buy 730 Patriot missiles from the U.S. for $9 billion (NBC); how many have been delivered is not public.
  • Saudi Arabia took 12% of all U.S. arms exports from 2021 to 2025 (NBC).
Ongoing6 earlier updates6 days

This story has run 7 times over 6 days, starting Oct 8.

  1. Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show
  2. UpdateDonor says Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle's $100,000 credit-card request was 'pay to play'; House Democrats request her records by Oct. 22
  3. UpdateState Dept inspector general investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged $100,000 request to a donor
  4. UpdateState Department watchdog investigates Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle as the WSJ publishes texts offering donors access to Trump
  5. UpdateTrump and Rubio weigh firing Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle over alleged request that a donor pay her $100,000 credit-card bill
  6. UpdateTrump says he is 'looking at' firing Ambassador to Greece Kimberly Guilfoyle: 'We're not happy'
  7. UpdateKimberly Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece after the White House asks her to go over an alleged $100,000 credit-card request to a donor — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateGuilfoyle inquiry

Kimberly Guilfoyle resigns as ambassador to Greece after the White House asks her to go over an alleged $100,000 credit-card request to a donor

She called the allegations false and gave no date for leaving; she served less than a year in Athens.

The resignation. New White House press secretary Katie Zacharia announced on Tuesday, Oct. 13, that Trump had asked Kimberly Guilfoyle to resign. About two hours later, Guilfoyle confirmed the resignation on X.

The allegation. Wall Street Journal reports say she pressed donor Eric Deters to pay a $100,000 American Express bill, compared with about $300,000 he says he paid her over the years, in exchange for access before her July 2025 confirmation hearing. Deters says he never paid it. "It was a quid pro quo," he told NBC.

“She wasn't a member of my family. She, I guess, dated my son a long time ago We didn't like what we were reading.”Donald Trump

What next. House Oversight Democrats want her messages and financial records by Thursday, Oct. 22. Two people familiar with the probe told NBC News on Oct. 9 that the State Department inspector general (the department's internal watchdog) is investigating her and the Athens embassy; the watchdog does not confirm investigations, and the State Department declined to comment.

Catch upwhat happened before · 6 earlier issues
  • Oct. 7 — Reports said Guilfoyle asked donor Eric Deters to wire $100,000 to her Amex bill before her 2025 confirmation hearing, the same total as the $50,000 in back pay plus $50,000 for her services listed in his June 11, 2025 letter. The same day, in Athens, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called her "a strong ambassador."
  • Oct. 8 — Deters called it "pay to play" and said he never paid. Her lawyer called the texts fake, and House Democrats demanded her records by Oct. 22.
  • Oct. 9–10 — NBC News, citing two people familiar, reported an inspector general investigation. The Journal published texts in which she offered donors access to Trump.
  • Oct. 11–12 — Trump and Rubio weighed firing her. Trump said "we're not happy," and her lawyers said Deters owed her about $150,000 for speeches and consulting, vs. the $100,000 bill he says he refused to pay.
5 earlier issues
How the $100,000 request allegedly tied payment to accessAfter Deters refused to pay on July 3, 2025, she allegedly wrote: “You could be here meeting with [then-IRS Commissioner] Billy…2 details
  • After Deters refused to pay on July 3, 2025, she allegedly wrote: “You could be here meeting with [then-IRS Commissioner] Billy Long.”
  • A June 11, 2025 letter from Deters lists $50,000 in back pay plus $50,000 for her services through confirmation; her lawyer disputes the messages are authentic.
Ongoing1 earlier update

This story has run 2 times, starting Oct 13.

  1. UpdateU.S. warns it could cut off Ukraine's intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless Kyiv stops striking Russian energy sites
  2. UpdateFive Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv without a U.S. launch warning; Trump says intelligence sharing continues — this issue
PBS NEWSHOURUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Five Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv without a U.S. launch warning; Trump says intelligence sharing continues

A second night of strikes, Tuesday, Oct. 13, killed one person in Kyiv and hit the Darnytska CHP-4 power plant, two days after Trump announced an energy ceasefire.

Five Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv on Monday night (Oct. 12) without the early warning Ukraine normally gets from its partners. The Kyiv Independent identified them as S-400s; Ukraine's Air Force logged them as Iskander-M/S-400 missiles.

Kyiv's account. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine got "no early warning from our partners." A senior Ukrainian official told the Kyiv Independent: "The Americans said they just didn't see (the launch)... That's a weak excuse."

Washington's answer. Trump said: "We are helping them, and we are sharing intel. We want the war to end." Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha also said sharing continues. Kyiv Independent sources said the same.

The ceasefire. Russia has launched more than 100 weapons at Ukraine since Monday evening (Oct. 12), per NBC News. On Tuesday night (Oct. 13), a strike on a Kyiv apartment block also hit the Darnytska CHP-4 heat-and-power plant, killing one person and injuring 13, the BBC reported. In Kharkiv, a destroyed apartment building killed four and wounded 41.

Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue

Over the weekend of Saturday, Oct. 10 and Sunday, Oct. 11, the State Department and Pentagon warned Kyiv that it could lose U.S. intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless it stopped striking Russian energy sites, and the U.S. military told Ukrainian commanders directly. On Sunday, Oct. 11, Trump announced an energy ceasefire that he said took effect immediately; he gave no terms, and Ukraine backed it while asking for details.

What Ukraine's own logs show about this missed warningUkraine's Air Force logged the target at 22:09 and issued the Kyiv alert at 22:10.3 details
  • Ukraine's Air Force logged the target at 22:09 and issued the Kyiv alert at 22:10. Neither time measures how long the missiles flew.
  • The first count was six missiles of unknown type. The Air Force later revised it to five Iskander-M/S-400 missiles.
  • No U.S. detection logs or Ukrainian relay logs have been released, so the record does not show whether detection failed or transmission failed.
Ongoing32 earlier updates83 days

This story has run 33 times over 83 days, starting Jul 23.

  1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
  2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
  3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
  4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
  5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
  6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
  7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
  9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
  10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
  11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
  12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
  13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
  14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
  15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
  16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
  17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
  18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
  19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
  20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
  21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
  22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
  23. UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
  24. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
  25. Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
  26. UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
  27. Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
  28. UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
  29. UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
  30. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
  31. UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May
  32. Iran's security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, calls the U.S. reply to Tehran's plan to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz insufficient and says Iran has stopped responding
  33. UpdateIran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's count — this issue
FINANCIAL TIMESUpdateIran war

Iran targeted 24 ships in the Strait of Hormuz in two weeks, its most since the war began, by the FT's count

Britain's UKMTO shipping office counted six vessels attacked on Sunday, Oct. 11 alone; the previous two-week high was 13 ships, in early March.

Iran attacked 24 tankers and other vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz in the two weeks to Sunday, Oct. 11, by the Financial Times' count from UKMTO and European security reports, the worst stretch since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran began Feb. 28 (the next worst, early March, had 13). Iran's army also announced it has deployed units east of the strait, in the Arabian Sea and the Sea of Oman, the open water ships enter after leaving the Gulf.

Sunday, Oct. 11. UKMTO counted six vessels attacked. The Joint Maritime Information Center's report that day details three tankers hit; a fourth ship, the Ocean Molica, was struck by U.S. forces, not Iran.

Still open. The FT has not published a ship-by-ship list, so how many of the 24 were damaged, disabled or lost crew is not yet known.

Catch upwhat happened before · 32 earlier issues
  • Sept. 14 — An unidentified projectile hit an Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing one; Trump wouldn't say whether the U.S. fired it.
  • Sept. 20 — A hit on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and a supertanker shortage began squeezing fuel supplies.
  • Sept. 23–27 — Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within a week if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; Trump rejected it.
  • Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms.
  • Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York.
  • Oct. 8 — Congressional researchers counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May.
  • Oct. 12 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the U.S. reply insufficient, said Tehran stopped responding, and threatened undersea cables and data centers.
31 earlier issues

What the three confirmed Oct. 11 tanker hits did, per the Joint Maritime Information Center:

  • One tanker lost power and had to be towed
  • One caught fire; the fire was put out
  • One took damage to its steering room and water tanks; all three crews reported safe
BBC NEWS

Federal prosecutors charge ex-OpenAI engineer Abdulrahman Alfozan with hiding a recording device in an executive conference room

He faces up to five years in prison if convicted; a detention hearing is set for Oct. 19.

Alfozan, 35, a Saudi national at OpenAI since July 2025, allegedly hid an encrypted recorder, wrapped in toilet paper, in a TV's USB port in a room where OpenAI leaders discuss research, products and government work, per the Justice Department.

What he's charged with. One wiretap-law count: using or trying to use a device to intercept private conversations. Arrested Friday, Oct. 9; first court appearance Tuesday, Oct. 13.

How it was found. Staff found the device Sept. 30, about two days after it went in. OpenAI says its AI models helped trace it to him; it alerted the FBI and fired him, per the BBC.

The catch. The contents were encrypted, and DOJ has not said any audio was recovered. OpenAI sees no sign model weights, source code or customer data were taken. Officials call it a national-security case, but the public allegations name no foreign government, buyer or motive, Newsweek notes.

What next. A judge decides Oct. 19 whether he stays jailed until trial.

What the complaint citesSecurity footage of him near the room, which he had no authority to enter.3 details
  • Security footage of him near the room, which he had no authority to enter.
  • Prompts from a chatbot account tied to his spouse on building a hidden recorder, including the planted device's network ID.
  • A second recorder found in his unattended bag on Oct. 5, per the Justice Department.

Quick bites14

The Iran war4 bites

  1. Moody's chief economist estimates the Iran war has cost the average US household $2,000 so far

    THE HILLIran war

    Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics puts the cost at $2,000 per household, or $265 billion nationwide, since the war began Feb. 28, per The Hill and Newsweek. About $1,100 is higher energy costs, CNN reports; $540 is higher interest rates and $360 is military spending, per Benzinga. Zandi says the total has absorbed about half the average household's income gain over the past eight months. It is his own estimate, posted on X Monday, Oct. 12; Moody's has not published the method.

  2. Netanyahu pressed Trump on several calls for a new joint strike on Iran, Axios reports

    AXIOSIran war

    Netanyahu cited intelligence that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program, and both militaries are reportedly finishing preparations, but the White House calls the report false and says Trump will not attack Iran before the midterms.

    Dates and detailsOct. 2: Trump's cabinet met at Camp David to discuss resuming strikes, per Axios.3 details
    • Oct. 2: Trump's cabinet met at Camp David to discuss resuming strikes, per Axios.
    • Oct. 27: Israel holds its elections, ahead of the U.S. midterms.
    • Pickaxe Mountain: the site Israel fears Iran may use to enrich uranium.

  3. Vance says Trump will use the Defense Production Act to expand Delek's 74,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Tyler, Texas

    REUTERS

    Vice President JD Vance announced the plan on Tuesday, Oct. 13, at a Tyler campaign stop for Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton, pitching it as a fix for Iran-war fuel prices. The refinery processes about 74,000 barrels a day, per Reuters. Reuters cites no signed order, and the White House and Delek did not say how much capacity, money or time the expansion involves.

  4. MI5 chief says Iran is now targeting UK military sites, citing last month's RAF Fairford incident

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERRAF Fairford plot

    MI5 Director General Ken McCallum said on Tuesday, Oct. 13, that Iran-linked operations in Britain now reach "harder targets, like military sites," and that the Fairford case "is not unique." On Sept. 27 police evacuated homes near RAF Fairford, the U.S.-run base in western England used to bomb Iran, and found gasoline in three vans but no explosives, per AP. Prime Minister Andy Burnham says the plot was "almost certainly" directed by Iran's Revolutionary Guard; Iran denies it, and the government has not made its evidence public. McCallum still ranks Russia as Britain's "aggressor number one."

    The numbersMore than 50 arrests in the UK tied to Iran-linked operations in the past 12 months (Washington Examiner, NBC News)2 details
    • More than 50 arrests in the UK tied to Iran-linked operations in the past 12 months (Washington Examiner, NBC News)
    • Seven men in their 20s arrested over Fairford, all released on bail; none charged (AP)
Inflation and the Fed2 bites

  1. September CPI, the last before the midterms, is expected to show inflation rising to 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4%

    NBC NEWSInflation and rates

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, Oct. 14. NBC News puts the forecast at 3.7%; the Dow Jones survey of forecasters cited by CNBC and Kiplinger has 3.6%. Louisiana GOP Senate nominee Julia Letlow (Rep-R Louisiana) says diesel costs have some farmers close to going under, NBC reports.

  2. NY Fed President John Williams backs one more rate hike this year and none in 2027

    BLOOMBERGInflation and rates

    Williams told Bloomberg in an Oct. 13 interview that one more hike in 2026 is appropriate but he does not expect the Fed to raise rates again in 2027, a view Reuters also reported. The Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00% on Sept. 16, its first hike since July 2023, per CNBC. One more quarter-point move would reach 4.00%–4.25%, the year-end range Fed officials projected in September, per Reuters.

Inside the White House2 bites

  1. Trump officials now lean against livestreaming Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution

    CBS NEWSUpdateFort Hood execution

    Administration officials now lean against livestreaming the Dec. 3 firing-squad execution of Nidal Hasan, who killed 13 people at Fort Hood in 2009, though Trump had not made a final call as of Tuesday, Oct. 13, per CBS News. CNN reports Trump privately said he hadn't known Hasan is paralyzed from the waist down.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 5 earlier issues
    • Oct. 5 — The Pentagon announced Trump had approved Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's recommendation to execute Hasan by Army firing squad; the Army set Dec. 3 the next day.
    • Oct. 7–8 — Hegseth said the execution would be public; on Oct. 8 a Pentagon official said it would be livestreamed on a platform not yet named.
    • Oct. 9 — Trump said he "absolutely" approved; Vance doubted the stream would happen as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN objected.
    • Oct. 10 — Trump said he would make the final decision on the stream.
    • Oct. 12 — A Pentagon official said the stream was still on; Trump privately told a confidant it "might not happen."
    4 earlier issues
    How rare this would beThe U.S. has carried out 6 firing-squad executions since 1977, per Axios.2 details
    • The U.S. has carried out 6 firing-squad executions since 1977, per Axios.
    • The last public U.S. execution was about 90 years ago, per Axios.
    Ongoing5

    This story has run 6 times over 7 days, starting Oct 7.

    1. Trump approves Army firing-squad execution of Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan, set for Dec. 3
    2. UpdatePentagon will livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
    3. UpdateVance doubts the Pentagon will livestream Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution as GOP senators, Catholic bishops and the UN object
    4. UpdateTrump says he will decide whether to livestream Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 firing-squad execution
    5. UpdatePentagon official says Hasan's Dec. 3 execution will still be livestreamed despite growing GOP objections
    6. UpdateTrump officials now lean against livestreaming Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan's Dec. 3 execution — this issue

  2. Press secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets

    WASHINGTON EXAMINERUpdate

    Press secretary Katie Zacharia's first White House briefing ran 14 minutes, according to a Washington Examiner column. The column says she spent eight of them reading remarks and took questions only from Breitbart, Fox News and the Daily Mail.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues

    On Oct. 9 Trump named Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt, who left in late August (CNN, Time). Before her debut, CNN reported on her past social media posts, and the White House had held no formal briefing since Vice President JD Vance's on Sept. 3, per Time.

    1 earlier issue
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Oct 10.

    1. Trump names Truth Social adviser Katie Zacharia White House press secretary, replacing Karoline Leavitt
    2. UpdateKatie Zacharia replaces Karoline Leavitt as White House press secretary as CNN surfaces her conspiracy-laced posts
    3. UpdatePress secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing lasted 14 minutes and took questions from three outlets — this issue
Charges and settlements2 bites

  1. Houston DA says video shows ICE officer ran a man over on purpose, weighs assault charge

    NBC NEWSUpdateICE raids

    Teare says ICE is not cooperating and may have let data in the vehicle be erased. Miguel Parra Hernandez, 48, remains in ICE custody facing more surgery, per The Guardian.

    On Saturday, Oct. 10, an ICE officer chasing another man hit Parra Hernandez with a vehicle in northwest Harris County, breaking his leg. DHS said its target, Jose Mendoza-Cervantes, had a final removal order.

    The two accountsICE says Parra Hernandez ran in front of the vehicle.3 details
    • ICE says Parra Hernandez ran in front of the vehicle.
    • His lawyer says he never knew the man agents were chasing.
    • Teare says the video makes intent "pretty obvious"; no charge has been filed yet.

  2. CVS will pay $315 million to settle DOJ claims it billed federal programs for unnecessary opioid prescriptions

    NBC NEWS

    The Justice Department alleged CVS filled prescriptions from "pill mills"; CVS admits no wrongdoing but must add new safeguards on how it dispenses opioids.

    How old the case isWhistleblower Hillary Estright first filed the case in 2019, per The Hill.2 details
    • Whistleblower Hillary Estright first filed the case in 2019, per The Hill.
    • The government's lawsuit was filed in 2024, per NBC News, PBS NewsHour and the Washington Examiner.
Also tonight1 bite

  1. Supreme Court agrees to decide whether DOGE must release its records under FOIA

    NBC NEWS: Supreme Court to decide if DOGE must open its records to the public

    The justices will rule on whether DOGE is an agency that must answer public-records requests under FOIA, or a presidential advisory body that is exempt. They will also decide if courts can order discovery to settle that. Groups that only advise the president fall outside FOIA; groups with real power of their own do not.

    Key factsThe plaintiff, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), sued to get DOGE's records.5 details
    • The plaintiff, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW), sued to get DOGE's records.
    • A federal district judge found DOGE likely subject to FOIA and ordered discovery into how it operates.
    • June 2025: the court sided 6-3 with the administration on its emergency docket, halting that discovery, per PBS NewsHour.
    • Elon Musk, who led DOGE, has since left it.
    • A ruling is expected by the end of June 2027, per NBC News.
Elections3 bites

  1. GOP super PACs pull money from Reps. Kean and Miller-Meeks as the Congressional Leadership Fund raises spending in 16 other House races

    ABC NEWSBattle for the House

    The Congressional Leadership Fund canceled its spending in four House races, in New Jersey, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, and raised it in 16, ABC News reports. The Washington Examiner puts the money pulled at $10 million. The cuts include bids to flip Democratic seats in Michigan and Ohio.

    The two Republicans losing their air coverTom Kean Jr. (Rep-R New Jersey) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Rep-R Iowa) are the incumbents losing CLF and MAGA Inc. money.3 details
    • Tom Kean Jr. (Rep-R New Jersey) and Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Rep-R Iowa) are the incumbents losing CLF and MAGA Inc. money.
    • Miller-Meeks beat Democrat Christina Bohannan by 799 votes in 2024.
    • Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned at her Davenport headquarters four days before the cut, calling her a voice that can 'get everybody together.'

  2. Gallup: Americans trust Democrats over Republicans on the economy 43% to 35%, first Democratic lead since 2012

    THE HILL

    Gallup found 43% of respondents trust Democrats more to deliver economic prosperity versus 35% for Republicans, with independents driving the shift; Democrats also lead on party favorability.

  3. WSJ: Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton partied in Dubai with two federal healthcare-fraud fugitives

    CBS NEWSTexas Senate race

    Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton spent New Year's Eve 2024 at a Dubai party with two men who fled federal health care fraud charges. The Wall Street Journal reports the news. Paxton is the GOP pick for Senate. He brought his girlfriend. One of the two men, Anosh Ahmed, had donated to him.

    What's on the recordPaxton's campaign called the report a politically motivated attack; CNN's Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) noted the statement does not…2 details
    • Paxton's campaign called the report a politically motivated attack; CNN's Andrew Kaczynski (@KFILE) noted the statement does not respond to the specifics.
    • The size of Ahmed's donation comes from a single reporter (@efindell); CBS describes one fugitive only as a donor.

Elections22 races

The midterms · 20 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 62%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 90.05–90.50%
91%90%chance Democrats take it · 0.4pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 91% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 61.5–63.5%
64%62%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 64% and Kalshi 62%.

3 closest races

  • wGeorgia governorRick Jackson 53.0%Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • xNevada governorAaron Ford 53.0%▲1.3Joe Lombardo 47.3%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 46.0%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pMaine SenateTroy Jackson 58.0%▲0.7Susan Collins 42.5%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • rAlaska SenateMary Peltola 74.0%▲0.926.5%Sullivan

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • zGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 95.60%Collins 4.42%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.1%, Kalshi 95.1%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.85%, Kalshi 5.00%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • sIowa SenateAshley Hinson 58.5%▲3.5Josh Turek 41.5%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 69.0%▲2.2Rogers 31.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aaNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 73.5%▲1.2Dan Osborn 26.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 74.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.0%11.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.57%Whatley 4.57%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.85%, Kalshi 95.30%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4.30%, Kalshi 4.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uOhio SenateSherrod Brown 60.5%▲1.7Jon Husted 40.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qTexas SenateJames Talarico 64.5%▲0.7Ken Paxton 36.5%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 36.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • adAlaska governor23.00%▲2.276.7%WilsonBegich 0.28%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 21.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.50%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • afArizona governorKatie Hobbs 88.0%12.0%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajFlorida governorByron Donalds 79.5%▲2.2Jolly 20.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acIowa governorRob Sand 89.8%▲3.010.3%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 89.0%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aeMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 93.30%▲0.4James 6.90%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.85%, Kalshi 92.75%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.35%, Kalshi 7.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahNew York governorKathy Hochul 94.80%Blakeman 5.30%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.1pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.35%, Kalshi 94.25%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.75%, Kalshi 5.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • oOhio governorAmy Acton 70.0%▲3.4Vivek Ramaswamy 30.5%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.85%▲0.7Garrity 1.90%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.85%, Kalshi 97.85%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.1%, Kalshi 1.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • agTexas governorGreg Abbott 79.2%▲7.0Hinojosa 20.8%

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Democratic side is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.6pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 77.9%, Kalshi 80.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.6pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%Tiffany 19.5%

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 13, 9:44 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.