Market odds of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting jumped to 47% from 22.1% after the report, per Axios.
Before the Oct. 14 release, forecasters expected September inflation to climb to 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4%, and NBC News pinned most of that rise on diesel prices, which have risen since the Iran war began Feb. 28.
ContextAnnual inflation is the highest since May, when it hit 4.2%.
A senior U.S. official told Axios the administration had nothing to do with it. The cap still stood Wednesday, Oct. 14, after a partial fix.
On Saturday, Oct. 10, and Sunday, Oct. 11, the State Department and Pentagon warned Kyiv it could lose U.S. intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless it stopped striking Russian energy sites. Then on two straight nights ending Tuesday, Oct. 13, Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv with no U.S. launch warning, killing one and hitting the Darnytska power plant. Trump said intelligence sharing continues.
ContextStarlink limits have hit Ukraine's forces at least three times before. In Sept. 2022 Musk refused coverage for a naval-drone strike near Crimea, and in Feb. 2023 SpaceX president Gwynne Shotwell confirmed curbs on drone control. In early Feb. 2026 a 75–90 km/h cap aimed at Russian drones also grounded Ukrainian ones until Kyiv whitelisted its terminals; Kyiv had asked for that cap, but not this one.
The letters do not say how many people are on the list or how DOJ picked them, and Los Angeles County has not opened the thumb drive.
What DOJ's voter-roll suits and fraud charges have produced: DOJ's Civil Rights Division has sued states 31 times over voter rolls and has lost 26 of those suits DOJ has charged about 90 people with election crimes this year, and 50 of them are accused of voting as noncitizens
ContextProven noncitizen voting is rare where it has been counted. North Carolina's 2016 audit found 41 such voters, compared with nearly 4.8 million voters in all. Michigan's 2024 review flagged 16 ballots, compared with more than 5.7 million ballots in all. Federal law bars systematic voter-removal programs in the 90 days before a federal election. In a 2024 Virginia case, DOJ itself told a court that individual investigations are allowed. Mass database matching, it said, is not.
Investigators are examining whether her age and her family's immigration filings were falsified; her staff had a Minnesota library change her listed birth year from 1981 to 1982.
On Monday, Oct. 12, 22 days before the Nov. 3 election, federal agents searched Omar's home in a criminal probe of immigration papers her late father filed when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, reportedly at 17. On Oct. 13, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro opened a review of financial disclosures valuing husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024, per Fox News, and Trump said he takes "no position" on deporting her; Omar has not been charged.
ContextNBC News and Fox News report that Omar became a U.S. citizen at 17 through her father's naturalization (derivative citizenship, which passes a parent's new citizenship to a child). That makes her real birth year central to the case. TIME reports the probe points toward denaturalization (a court case to strip someone's citizenship). The Justice Department has a practice of avoiding overt steps in politically sensitive cases within 60 days of an election. Opponents of the probe say this search breaks that practice. Norm Eisen of the Democracy Defenders Fund said: "Staging a public raid on the home of a sitting member of Congress weeks before a consequential election is an abuse of power."
The average retiree gets about $75 more a month starting in January; this year's raise was 2.8%.
Years Social Security raised checks 3.6% or more since 2000: January 2023: 8.7% January 2022: 5.9% January 2009: 5.8%
ContextFive of the 27 January raises since 2000 hit 3.6% or more; the median was 2.5%. Medicare's Part B premium, usually deducted from the check, was $202.90 a month in 2026; trustees project $209.50 for 2027, eating $6.60 of the $75. The retirement trust fund is projected to run dry in late 2032, triggering a 22% cut in checks.
A sister ship, GFS Giselle, was hit the next day, Wednesday, Oct. 14, and reached safe anchorage with its 22 crew.
- Feb. 28 — The U.S.-Iran war began. - Sept. 20 — A supertanker shortage and a strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline squeezed fuel; JPMorgan cut its oil forecast. - Sept. 23 — Iran offered to reopen the strait if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; traffic fell to two ships. - Sept. 25–27 — Iran proposed a seven-day ceasefire to reopen the strait; Trump rejected it. - Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms. - Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York. - Oct. 8 — Congressional researchers counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May. - Oct. 11 — Britain's UKMTO counted six ships attacked in one day; the FT tallied 24 targeted in two weeks, the war's high. - Oct. 12 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the U.S. peace reply insufficient and said Iran had stopped responding.
ContextThe Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea passage between Iran and Oman. Before the war, 21 million barrels of oil a day moved through it (Kpler). IMF PortWatch counted an average of 4.1 ship crossings a day in the week to Oct. 11, against 58.5 a day in January. On Oct. 11, a joint naval advisory (a security notice issued to ships in the area) logged Iranian radio orders telling ships to leave the southern lane near Oman and move north into Iranian waters. The advisory still rated the threat "severe."
Staff at 6 of 10 sites GAO visited were unsure when they had to record, and GAO says DHS offered no other safeguard.
Activities where confidential informants may be present
ContextGAO, Congress's audit office, wants body cameras at ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) to switch on by themselves. DHS (the Department of Homeland Security) said no. GAO calls this automatic activation: the camera starts recording without waiting for an officer to press a button. Today the officer decides, and the rules are unclear. Staff at 6 of the 10 sites GAO reviewed were unsure when they had to record. DHS rejected the idea for ICE, citing risks to operations. According to GAO, it offered no other safeguard to make sure officers capture required footage. Both camera programs are large. ICE had about 4,800 cameras in use as of April 2026. CBP (Customs and Border Protection) had about 11,500 as of June 2026. Neither agency's plan for running its cameras is current. ICE last updated its plan in 2024, and CBP last updated its plan in 2022.
Market odds of a quarter-point Fed rate hike at the Oct. 27–28 meeting jumped to 47% from 22.1% after the report, per Axios.
Consumer prices rose 0.6% from August to September, the biggest monthly gain in five months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, Oct. 14. Prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August. Forecasters had expected 3.6%.
The spread. Gasoline jumped 9.1% in the month and drove more than half the rise. Prices also climbed for services, clothing, airfares and medical care. Core inflation (everything but food and energy, the measure of the underlying trend) rose to 2.6% a year, from 2.4% in August, with a 0.3% monthly gain.
The White House. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said there was "a whole bunch of good news in the report." He called the energy surge "temporary" and pointed to flat food prices and a 1.2% drop in prescription drug prices. ([TS]core prices, which leave out energy, ran at a 3.4% annual pace over three months, per Axios)
What next. The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27–28. Traders now put the odds of a quarter-point rate hike (the Fed raising its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage point to slow price growth) at 47%, up from 22.1% before the report, per Axios. This was the last inflation report before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Catch upwhat happened before · 12 earlier issues
Before the Oct. 14 release, forecasters expected September inflation to climb to 3.6%–3.7% from 3.4%, and NBC News pinned most of that rise on diesel prices, which have risen since the Iran war began Feb. 28.
What these September prices did to fuel bills, bonds and approvalGasoline cost 34% more than in September 2025, per The Guardian and Stateline.3 details
Gasoline cost 34% more than in September 2025, per The Guardian and Stateline. Fuel oil cost 74% more, per The Guardian; Stateline put the rise at 72%.
The two-year Treasury yield (the interest rate on two-year federal debt) rose 12 basis points, or 0.12 percentage point, after the report, per Axios.
Only 17% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's handling of the cost of living, per an AP-NORC poll.
Two columns of one figure the story states at two times: 3.4% in August, 3.7% a year earlier — up.
Chart
Prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August.
The numbers
Prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August.
Musk did not say who approved this cap, and a senior U.S. official told Axios the administration had nothing to do with it. The cap still stood Wednesday, Oct. 14, after a partial fix.
Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, Oct. 14, Ukraine's Starshield terminals cut out on anything moving faster than about 160 km/h (100 mph). Starshield is SpaceX's military-grade Starlink satellite internet, contracted for Ukraine through the U.S. government until May 15, 2027. The cutoff disrupted drone missions and air defense against jet-powered Shahed attack drones. Service below 160 km/h partly returned Wednesday, but the cap stayed.
Who set it. Musk said Starshield is government-controlled and that limits are set by the U.S. military and "ultimately POTUS." He did not name who approved this one. A senior U.S. official told Axios the administration was not involved.
The front. "The drones kept flying, but the interruptions made them harder to control," said Ukraine's 7th Rapid Reaction Corps.
Still open. No one has said on the record who ordered the cap, or whether it will be lifted.
On Saturday, Oct. 10, and Sunday, Oct. 11, the State Department and Pentagon warned Kyiv it could lose U.S. intelligence and NATO-run weapons purchases unless it stopped striking Russian energy sites. Then on two straight nights ending Tuesday, Oct. 13, Russian ballistic missiles hit Kyiv with no U.S. launch warning, killing one and hitting the Darnytska power plant. Trump said intelligence sharing continues.
Who in Congress and Kyiv demanded the Starshield cap endUkraine Caucus co-chairs Marcy Kaptur (Rep-D Ohio), Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania), Mike Quigley (Rep-D Illinois) and Joe…3 details
Ukraine Caucus co-chairs Marcy Kaptur (Rep-D Ohio), Brian Fitzpatrick (Rep-R Pennsylvania), Mike Quigley (Rep-D Illinois) and Joe Wilson (Rep-R South Carolina): limits that put civilians in harm's way "will not be accepted by Congress"
Jeanne Shaheen (Sen-D New Hampshire): the restrictions "must stop immediately," and the Pentagon must tell Congress at once if it pauses or downgrades intelligence sharing
Former Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov, on X, tagging Musk: removing the speed limit entirely "is now critical for Ukraine's defense"
The letters do not say how many people are on the list or how DOJ picked them. Los Angeles County has not opened the thumb drive.
Acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter sent letters Tuesday, Oct. 13, to California Secretary of State Shirley Weber and Los Angeles County Registrar Dean Logan. Each came with a password-protected thumb drive. It lists people DOJ calls likely noncitizens who were sent mail ballots.
The demand. Check each person's citizenship. "Segregate — not cancel" returned ballots that can't be verified. Hold back ballots not yet mailed. California began mailing ballots to every registered voter on Oct. 5.
The pushback. Logan says his office does "not consider the device a secure medium." Removing a voter, he says, "must be based on verifiable information, not assertions of unconfirmed data matching." California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, called the fraud claims "a lie" and "a conspiracy theory."
What next. If the state cannot comply by the deadline, McCotter wrote, "the United States will have no choice but to seek emergency relief" in court.
What DOJ's voter-roll suits and fraud charges have producedDOJ's Civil Rights Division has sued states 31 times over voter rolls and has lost 26 of those suits2 details
DOJ's Civil Rights Division has sued states 31 times over voter rolls and has lost 26 of those suits
DOJ has charged about 90 people with election crimes this year, and 50 of them are accused of voting as noncitizens
Red take
California should set aside the ballots the Justice Department flagged, because a held ballot can still count once its voter checks out, while one mixed into the count can never be pulled back. Trent McCotter, the department's acting deputy attorney general, asked only to "segregate — not cancel," and the department has charged 50 people this year accused of voting as noncitizens. Refuse that pause, and any ineligible ballot on that list is counted for good.
Blue take
A thumb drive Los Angeles County has not even opened is no basis for holding back a citizen's ballot. The Justice Department's letters do not say how many people are listed or how they were picked, and its Civil Rights Division has lost 26 of its 31 voter-roll suits this cycle. Hold ballots by Thursday noon on that, and citizens lose time to vote over a match nobody has shown.
Ongoing2 earlier updates2 days
This story has run 3 times over 2 days, starting Oct 13.
Investigators are examining whether her age and her family's immigration filings were falsified; her staff had a Minnesota library change her listed birth year from 1981 to 1982.
Investigators took the phone of Ilhan Omar (Rep-D Minnesota) during the Monday, Oct. 12 search of her Washington home. A federal grand jury in Minnesota has issued more than a dozen subpoenas, including to her relatives (NBC counts about a dozen). Omar herself was not subpoenaed. Investigators are examining whether her age and her family's immigration filings were falsified.
The birth year. Her staff asked a Minnesota library to change her listed birth year from 1981 to 1982, Fox News reports.
The timing. CBS and NBC say the subpoenas went out Friday, Oct. 9, before the search. TIME says they went out Tuesday, Oct. 13, after it. CBS reports that DOJ's Public Integrity Section (the unit that reviews politically sensitive cases) was consulted before the search. The section is down to two attorneys.
The family. Her husband, Tim Mynett, said: "My wife came here when she was 12 years old as a child war refugee. No concerns."
Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
On Monday, Oct. 12, 22 days before the Nov. 3 election, federal agents searched Omar's home in a criminal probe of immigration papers her late father filed when she was a child; she became a citizen in 2000, reportedly at 17. On Oct. 13, U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro opened a review of financial disclosures valuing husband Tim Mynett's two businesses at $15,000–$51,000 for 2023 and $6 million–$30 million for 2024, per Fox News, and Trump said he takes "no position" on deporting her; Omar has not been charged.
BackgroundWhat DOJ's election-timing rules forbid, and what they don't3 facts
Justice Manual 9-27.260 bars choosing any step, or its timing, to help or hurt a candidate or party.
Justice Manual 9-85.500 requires consulting Public Integrity when an action could raise that issue, or look like it does.
The familiar 60-day pause before an election is unwritten practice, described in the inspector general's 2018 review of the 2016 election.
Red take
A grand jury is questioning the relatives of Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat in Congress, and it should keep going. After she won her seat, her staff got a Minnesota library to change her birth year from 1981 to 1982, and prosecutors consulted the Justice Department's political-cases unit before searching. Freeze the case until Nov. 3, and voters pick a congresswoman while questions about her own papers stay unanswered.
Blue take
The papers under scrutiny were filed by the late father of Ilhan Omar, a Minnesota Democrat in Congress, when she was a child, and they will be no staler after Nov. 3. Seizing her phone this close to the vote serves the calendar, not the case. With the Justice Department's political-cases unit 'down to two attorneys,' every House member now campaigns knowing a search warrant can land in the final weeks.
The average retiree gets about $75 more a month starting in January; this year's raise was 2.8%.
The Social Security Administration set the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment (the yearly raise tied to inflation) at 3.6% on Wednesday, Oct. 14. That is about $900 a year for the average retiree.
Who gets it. Social Security beneficiaries see bigger checks starting in January. People on Supplemental Security Income (federal cash aid for low-income elderly and disabled people) get theirs earlier, on Dec. 31, 2026.
The forecast miss. The raise came in 0.9 percentage points above the Social Security trustees' projection. Workers also pay more: the most income subject to Social Security tax rises to $192,300 in 2027, from $184,500.
Years Social Security raised checks 3.6% or more since 2000January 2023: 8.7%3 details
January 2023: 8.7%
January 2022: 5.9%
January 2009: 5.8%
A bar chart of the 3 figures the story lists under "Years Social Security raised checks 3.6% or more since 2000": January 2023 at 8.7%, January 2022 at 5.9%, January 2009 at 5.8%.
Chart
Years Social Security raised checks 3.6% or more since 2000
The numbers
Years Social Security raised checks 3.6% or more since 2000
Percent
Share
January 2023
8.7%
January 2022
5.9%
January 2009
5.8%
Ongoing33 earlier updates84 days
This story has run 34 times over 84 days, starting Jul 23.
A sister ship, GFS Giselle, was hit the next day, Wednesday, Oct. 14, and reached safe anchorage with its 22 crew.
The GFS Pride caught fire and sank in the Strait of Hormuz after a strike on Tuesday, Oct. 13. All 21 crew were evacuated unhurt. A sister ship, the GFS Giselle, was hit on Wednesday, Oct. 14, and reached safe anchorage with its 22 crew. At least 24 seafarers have been killed in 106 confirmed attacks on merchant ships since the Iran war began in February.
Singapore's account. Its Maritime and Port Authority said the ship was "reportedly struck by unknown projectiles." It named no attacker and released no impact analysis.
Iran's account. The Revolutionary Guards said the ship hit naval mines while sailing an "unauthorised" route. Their photos show the fire, the sinking and floating containers, not the weapon.
Still open. No investigator, including Singapore's flag-state authorities, has published a finding on what sank the ship.
Catch upwhat happened before · 33 earlier issues
Feb. 28 — The U.S.-Iran war began.
Sept. 20 — A supertanker shortage and a strike on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline squeezed fuel; JPMorgan cut its oil forecast.
Sept. 23 — Iran offered to reopen the strait if the U.S. lifted its naval blockade; traffic fell to two ships.
Sept. 25–27 — Iran proposed a seven-day ceasefire to reopen the strait; Trump rejected it.
Sept. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms.
Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York.
Oct. 8 — Congressional researchers counted 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged, up from 42 in May.
Oct. 11 — Britain's UKMTO counted six ships attacked in one day; the FT tallied 24 targeted in two weeks, the war's high.
Oct. 12 — Iran's security chief Mohsen Rezaei called the U.S. peace reply insufficient and said Iran had stopped responding.
Why the U.S. mine-clearing claim has not reopened the straitShipowners want the main lanes cleared of mines, then a clear government declaration that they are safe2 details
Shipowners want the main lanes cleared of mines, then a clear government declaration that they are safe
U.S. forces said Aug. 28 they had cleared the main lanes; Iran never endorsed that, and the tanker owners' group INTERTANKO called it necessary but not enough
Quick bites12
Courts3 bites
Eight states sue OpenAI, saying it misled parents about ChatGPT's safety for children
The panel said the U.S. will likely win its Supremacy Clause challenge, reversing District Judge Christina Snyder, who had refused to block the ID rule but had already blocked the law's separate mask ban.
The panel and the caseJudge Mark Bennett (Trump nominee) wrote the opinion, joined by Jacqueline Nguyen (Obama nominee) and Daniel Collins (Trump…3 details
Judge Mark Bennett (Trump nominee) wrote the opinion, joined by Jacqueline Nguyen (Obama nominee) and Daniel Collins (Trump nominee).
The panel: the law "explicitly overrides the federal government's power to determine whether, how, and when to publicly identify its officers."
Gavin Newsom (Gov-D California) signed the laws in September 2025; DOJ sued on Nov. 17, 2025.
Supreme Court, 7-2, blocks order forcing FCC to rule within 48 hours on party ad rates
Democratic candidates asked the FCC to stop party committees from buying TV ads at the low rates reserved for candidates, and the Fourth Circuit ordered the agency to rule within 48 hours. The Supreme Court halted that deadline 7-2, its second ruling for Republicans in the dispute, per Reuters and The Hill. Justices Sotomayor and Jackson dissented from the unsigned order.
The rulingVote: 7-2; Sotomayor and Jackson dissented (Washington Examiner, The Hill)2 details
Vote: 7-2; Sotomayor and Jackson dissented (Washington Examiner, The Hill)
The unsigned order said courts may not "meddle in 'the workings of a coordinate branch of the Government' in this manner"
Ongoing15
This story has run 16 times over 50 days, starting Aug 26.
Iran-backed Houthi forces struck Saudi oil giant Aramco's headquarters in Dhahran on Wednesday, officials told PBS. The Saudi-led coalition said it shot down 7 weapons aimed at Riyadh the same day: 2 drones, 4 cruise missiles and 1 ballistic missile. Debris hurt one person there.
Also from the strikeSaudi Arabia's energy ministry described only a 'limited fire' at the Aramco building.3 details
Saudi Arabia's energy ministry described only a 'limited fire' at the Aramco building. That is a smaller account than the officials' report of 3 damaged floors.
The coalition said it also stopped drones and missiles aimed at Dhahran and Al-Kharj, though the Aramco building in Dhahran was still hit.
Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree told workers at Saudi airports and companies to 'evacuate them immediately, as they have become legitimate targets.'
Ongoing16
This story has run 17 times over 36 days, starting Sep 9.
Trump said it while rallying in Arizona for Andy Biggs (Rep-R Arizona), who is challenging Katie Hobbs (Gov-D Arizona), and he called the leakers "the scum of the earth."
Inflation hangs on2 bites
Average hourly pay and consumer prices have both risen about 5.4% since January 2025
BLS data show real average hourly earnings fell 0.7% over the past year, and inflation has outpaced wage gains for six straight months as the Iran-war energy shock feeds into prices.
Prices since January 2025: up 5.4% (BLS, per The Washington Post)
Hourly pay since January 2025: up 5.4% per The Washington Post; 5.5% per Heather Long
Real average hourly earnings, past 12 months: down 0.7% (BLS)
Fed's Goolsbee warns the AI building boom may be overheating the economy; Daly says rate hikes are likely needed but not urgent
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called September's inflation report discouraging and warned that the AI building boom may be overheating the economy, per Bloomberg. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said rate hikes are likely needed, but not urgently, per Reuters.
Also tonight2 bites
Houston DA seeks two detainees who rode in the ICE vehicle as witnesses to the strike
Harris County DA Sean Teare wants the two detainees from the vehicle's back seat held as material witnesses. Agents moved them before investigators could talk to them. ICE calls claims of an intentional strike "RECKLESS and FALSE."
On Saturday, an ICE vehicle hit Miguel Parra-Hernandez, 48, and broke his leg as he fled a Houston-area raid aimed at another man. Teare said video shows the officer hit him on purpose, and he weighed an aggravated assault charge. ICE said the man ran in front of the vehicle.
The case so farVictim: Miguel Parra-Hernandez, 48, who suffered a broken leg2 details
Victim: Miguel Parra-Hernandez, 48, who suffered a broken leg
Charge under review: aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, up to 20 years in prison
Andy Harris (Rep-R Maryland) tells student reporter he'll refer her to prosecutors for recording a press gaggle
Harris told Capital News Service reporter Cat Murphy, "If you record, we will refer you to prosecutors." He said it after a debate with Democrat Dan Schwartz. He cited a wiretap law. ABC notes that law applies only to private conversations.
Murphy's reply: "Everyone in here is recording."
Maryland's wiretap law carries up to 5 years in prison, but ABC reports it applies only to private conversations.
Asked if he was a lawyer, Harris, a doctor, said: "Yeah, actually, I'm a legislator."
Elections3 bites
Five senior House Republicans tell Politico the House has all but slipped away
One of the five predicted Democrats would gain about 10 seats. Party money is moving to limit House losses and defend Senate seats under pressure in Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas, but the White House says it is not giving up.
Who said whatLast week the party gave up on the Omaha-based seat of retiring Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska).3 details
Last week the party gave up on the Omaha-based seat of retiring Don Bacon (Rep-R Nebraska).
Bacon, on the record, blamed the president's polling numbers and unfavorables.
An unnamed senior House Republican: "President Trump has made this election all about himself. Now we have to survive that political storm."
Troy Jackson (D-ME) says Susan Collins (Sen-R Maine) 'paid for the bullets' in a fatal ICE shooting
Jackson tied the shooting to the $38.5 billion for ICE in the party-line Secure America Act, which Collins backed and which also gave $26 billion to CBP.
How each side arguedJackson: "Senator Collins paid for the bullets and at Donald Trump's command.3 details
Jackson: "Senator Collins paid for the bullets and at Donald Trump's command. Now she wants credit for not pulling the trigger."
Collins said she pushed to get body cameras for ICE agents and voted with Democrats to end the Iran war.
Jackson's reply to the Iran vote: "Then we probably ought to have Democrats in charge of the U.S. Senate."
Ongoing4
This story has run 5 times over 22 days, starting Sep 23.
Jon Ossoff (Sen-D Georgia) told Mike Collins (Rep-R Georgia) in their second and final debate: "I have zero interest in running for president." Collins shot back: "He is running. He's going to be your DSA candidate."
Elections22 racesShowHide
The midterms · 19 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 91%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 62%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
U.S. House — Democrats take it, 90.25–90.50%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
91%90%chance Democrats take it · 0.2pp apart · no clear move — one venue moved, the other did not
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 91% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 61.5–63.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
64%62%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · no clear move — the venues went opposite ways
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 64% and Kalshi 62%.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 0.2pp gap / 2.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control91%
Republican, implied9%
volume$9.8M
7-day move0.0pp
KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?
Democratic control90%
Republican, implied10%
volume19M contracts
bid / ask90% / 90%
7-day move+0.3pp
PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control64%
Republican, implied36%
volume$3.7M
7-day move+1.0pp
KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Democratic control62%
Republican, implied38%
volume6.5M contracts
bid / ask61% / 62%
7-day move-1.5pp
Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day
U.S. House · Polymarket
U.S. House · Kalshi
U.S. Senate · Polymarket
U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago
91%
90%
63%
63%
6 days ago
91%
90%
63%
62%
5 days ago
91%
90%
63%
60%
4 days ago
91%
90%
64%
60%
3 days ago
91%
90%
64%
61%
2 days ago
91%
90%
64%
62%
yesterday
91%
90%
64%
62%
today
91%
90%
64%
62%
3 closest races
vNevada governorAaron Ford 52.0%▲1.8Joe Lombardo 48.0%
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 51.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 48.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Aaron Ford 52% · Joe Lombardo 48%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 51.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 48.0%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rick Jackson 54% · Keisha Lance Bottoms 47%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 58.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 41.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 58% · Josh Turek 42%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 75.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 74% · Dan Sullivan 27%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.15%, Kalshi 95.05%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.4%, Kalshi 4.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.1pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 95% · Mike Collins 4.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 59.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 57% · Susan Collins 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 30.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 69% · Mike Rogers 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 75.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 25.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 75% · Dan Osborn 26%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 89.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 89% · John E. Sununu 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT.
Day
Chris Pappas · Polymarket
Chris Pappas · Kalshi
John E. Sununu · Polymarket
John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago
—
88.0%
11.0%
11.0%
6 days ago
—
90.0%
11.0%
11.0%
5 days ago
89.5%
90.0%
10.5%
11.0%
4 days ago
89.5%
90.0%
10.5%
10.0%
3 days ago
89.5%
90.0%
11.5%
10.0%
2 days ago
88.5%
90.0%
12.5%
11.0%
yesterday
88.5%
89.0%
12.5%
10.0%
today
88.5%
89.5%
12.5%
10.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
wNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 95.53%▲1.3Whatley 4.67%
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 0.9pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 95.80%, Kalshi 95.25%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 4.25%, Kalshi 5.10%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 95% · Michael Whatley 5.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 59.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 40.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 60% · Jon Husted 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 63.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 37.5%, Kalshi 36.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 63% · Ken Paxton 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Wilson holds a clear lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Alaska governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 18.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.05%, Kalshi 0.75%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 21% · Tom Begich 0.5%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 87.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 11.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 79% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 89% · Zach Lahn 11%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 1.3pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 95.10%, Kalshi 93.75%; John James (R): Polymarket 4.8%, Kalshi 5.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 95% · John James 5.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 1.3pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 94.9%, Kalshi 93.7%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 5.15%, Kalshi 6.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 94% · Bruce Blakeman 6.3%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 31.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 69% · Vivek Ramaswamy 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 97.65%, Kalshi 98.15%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.2%, Kalshi 1.9%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 98% · Stacy Garrity 1.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after gaining about four points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 78.05%, Kalshi 78.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 22.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 78% · Gina Hinojosa 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 80.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 19.0%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 81% · Tom Tiffany 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT.
Day
David Crowley · Polymarket
David Crowley · Kalshi
Tom Tiffany · Polymarket
Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago
—
80.0%
18.5%
21.0%
6 days ago
—
81.0%
18.5%
19.0%
5 days ago
81.5%
81.0%
18.5%
20.0%
4 days ago
80.5%
81.0%
18.5%
20.0%
3 days ago
80.5%
82.0%
19.5%
20.0%
2 days ago
80.5%
81.0%
19.5%
20.0%
yesterday
80.5%
80.0%
19.0%
20.0%
today
80.5%
80.5%
19.0%
19.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 14, 8:45 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Staff at 6 of 10 sites GAO visited were unsure when they had to record, and GAO says DHS offered no other safeguard.
The Government Accountability Office (GAO, Congress's watchdog) reviewed the body-camera programs at Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The findings. It found outdated plans and unclear rules on when to record. Staff at 6 of 10 sites it reviewed were unsure when cameras had to be on. ICE has not updated its program plan since 2024, and CBP has not updated its plan since 2022.
The response. The Department of Homeland Security, which runs both agencies, accepted six of seven recommendations. It rejected cameras that turn on automatically for ICE, citing operational risks.
The cameras. ICE had about 4,800 cameras deployed as of April 2026. CBP had about 11,500 as of June 2026.
Activities where confidential informants may be present
