Political Guyentist
Political Guyentist

Thursday

Axios
1us2026 midterms

Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midterms

Trump has not decided and no date is set; if major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites.

Why limited strikes would not reopen Gulf oil before Election Day: Strait of Hormuz oil flow, first half of 2025: 20.9 million barrels a day (EIA) Share of world petroleum use that passed through it: about one-fifth (EIA) Saudi and UAE pipelines that can bypass the strait: about 4.7 million barrels a day (EIA)

ContextThe war with Iran is in its eighth month, and about 50,000 U.S. troops in the region are within reach of Iranian retaliation. If major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites. Trump's security team met for hours at Camp David on Friday, Oct. 2; an Israeli official said part of the talk covered restarting combat.

AXIOS3 sources

2usUpdateInflation and the Fed

Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end

16 of 18 officials projected at least one more increase this year, but futures traders bet the Fed holds at its October meeting and waits until December.

- Sept. 11 — August consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, with gasoline driving the monthly increase. - Sept. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed lowered rates. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023. - Sept. 16 — The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less." - Sept. 22-24 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said reaching 2% inflation would be "painful." Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely. - Oct. 1 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October hike odds to 35%. - Oct. 4 — Weak U.S. jobs data pulled back market bets on an October Fed hike.

ContextIn September 2023, a majority of Fed officials also judged one more hike likely, but it never came; July 2023 stayed that cycle's last increase, at a 5.25%-5.5% peak, 1.5 points above today's range. September's hike came after a run of rate cuts across 2024 and 2025. August PCE inflation (the Fed's preferred gauge) was 3.4%, against a 2% target.

THE HILL7 sources

3usUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Kremlin says it is open to a Trump-Putin call on a Siberian plague-lab worker's death, but no call is scheduled

Russia says none of 200 screened contacts had plague and is easing precautions; the WHO is still pressing Moscow for the cause.

- Oct. 2 — Darya Shipilova, 28, a worker at Siberia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, more than 2,500 miles from Moscow, died; Russia listed pneumonia of undetermined origin. - By Oct. 6 — U.S. officials were monitoring it as a suspected pneumonic plague death and Trump offered help; Russia quarantined a hospital and watched nearly 200 contacts. - By Oct. 7 — Trump said he would call Putin; Russia said tests had not linked the death to plague, and the State Department reissued its Level 4 do-not-travel warning.

ContextDarya Shipilova, a 28-year-old worker at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute in Siberia, more than 2,500 miles from Moscow, died on Friday, Oct. 2. Russia has not said she had plague: its official cause of death is pneumonia of unknown origin. Plague is an infection caused by one bacterium, Yersinia pestis, and its forms are named for the part of the body they attack. Only the lung form, pneumonic plague, spreads between people. Untreated, it can kill within 18 to 24 hours, though early antibiotics cure it, per the WHO. The U.S. averages seven human plague cases a year across all forms, and the CDC sees no sign of a broader U.S. threat.

CBS NEWS10 sources

4usUpdate

DNC sues to block pro-Trump TV ads it says the White House paid for with $20 million in border-agency funds

Spots marked "Paid for by the U.S. Government" kept airing after Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that his super PAC would pay for them.

Government-paid ads promoting Trump began running on local TV in late September; on Monday, Oct. 5, Trump said his super PAC would pay for them going forward. The White House then said taxpayers would not be repaid the roughly $11 million spent since late September, against the $20 million the DNC suit says OMB moved for the ads. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he would file an FEC complaint, though only 2 of the commission's 6 seats are filled.

ContextThe Government Accountability Office, Congress's watchdog, bars three kinds of agency publicity: hidden sponsorship, self-praise and purely partisan material. It ruled against Bush's Education Department in 2005 for secretly paying commentator Armstrong Williams, and against Obama's EPA in 2015 for covertly promoting its water rule; both cases turned on concealment. These ads carry a disclaimer, so the DNC's case rests on the self-praise and partisanship tests.

NBC NEWS12 sources

5us

Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show

On Wednesday, Oct. 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Guilfoyle seated in front of him in Athens, called her "a strong ambassador."

Guilfoyle, a former California prosecutor and Fox News host, ran fundraising for Trump's 2020 campaign and was engaged to Donald Trump Jr. The Daily Beast identifies the donor as Eric Deters, a former congressional candidate from Kentucky. The closest recent precedent is the case of former Bob Menendez (Sen-D New Jersey), now serving 11 years in prison for bribery. Part of that scheme: in 2019 a businessman's company paid about $23,000 toward his wife Nadine Menendez's mortgage, compared with the $100,000 Guilfoyle asked this donor to send.

ContextGuilfoyle, a former California prosecutor and Fox News host, ran fundraising for Trump's 2020 campaign and was engaged to Donald Trump Jr. The Daily Beast identifies the donor as Eric Deters, a former congressional candidate from Kentucky. The closest recent precedent is the case of former Bob Menendez (Sen-D New Jersey), now serving 11 years in prison for bribery. Part of that scheme: in 2019 a businessman's company paid about $23,000 toward his wife Nadine Menendez's mortgage, compared with the $100,000 Guilfoyle asked this donor to send.

WSJ7 sources

6us

FBI charges Minnesota 18-year-old with plotting an ISIS-inspired Mall of America shooting after an undercover FBI employee sold him an AK-47

Prosecutors say he picked the mall's Hmong Arts Celebration on Saturday, Oct. 24, and said he meant to kill 30 to 60 people.

The FBI watched Mohamud for about 22 months before the arrest. A confidential informant began messaging him in December 2024, and agents arrested him on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026, 18 days before the Saturday, Oct. 24 attack prosecutors say he planned. The AK-47 the undercover employee sold him had been made inoperable, so the gun could not fire, though the 200 rounds were live. The charge rests on the purchase itself: receiving a firearm and ammunition knowing they would be used in a federal crime of terrorism. U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen called him "a radicalized young man who needed to be watched." Amy Klobuchar (Sen-D Minnesota), the Democratic nominee for governor, called for "major coordinated investments in anti-terrorism and local law enforcement."

ContextThe FBI watched Mohamud for about 22 months before the arrest. A confidential informant began messaging him in December 2024, and agents arrested him on Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2026, 18 days before the Saturday, Oct. 24 attack prosecutors say he planned. The AK-47 the undercover employee sold him had been made inoperable, so the gun could not fire, though the 200 rounds were live. The charge rests on the purchase itself: receiving a firearm and ammunition knowing they would be used in a federal crime of terrorism. U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen called him "a radicalized young man who needed to be watched." Amy Klobuchar (Sen-D Minnesota), the Democratic nominee for governor, called for "major coordinated investments in anti-terrorism and local law enforcement."

PBS NEWSHOUR11 sources

Thursday · The daily brief

Oct 82026

6 leads37 briefs22 min

BoardScroll

Executive summary6 stories

News news6

  1. Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midtermsTrump has not decided and no date is set; if major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites.
  2. Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end16 of 18 officials projected at least one more increase this year, but futures traders bet the Fed holds at its October meeting and waits until December.
  3. Kremlin says it is open to a Trump-Putin call on a Siberian plague-lab worker's death, but no call is scheduledRussia says none of 200 screened contacts had plague and is easing precautions; the WHO is still pressing Moscow for the cause.
  4. DNC sues to block pro-Trump TV ads it says the White House paid for with $20 million in border-agency fundsSpots marked "Paid for by the U.S. Government" kept airing after Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that his super PAC would pay for them.
  5. Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages showOn Wednesday, Oct. 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Guilfoyle seated in front of him in Athens, called her "a strong ambassador."
  6. FBI charges Minnesota 18-year-old with plotting an ISIS-inspired Mall of America shooting after an undercover FBI employee sold him an AK-47Prosecutors say he picked the mall's Hmong Arts Celebration on Saturday, Oct. 24, and said he meant to kill 30 to 60 people.

News news6 stories

Ongoing2 earlier updates22 days

This story has run 3 times over 22 days, starting Sep 16.

  1. Pentagon inspector general puts U.S. equipment losses from Iranian strikes at $3.7 billion
  2. UK police arrest five men suspected of preparing a terrorist act near base used for U.S. strikes on Iran
  3. Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midterms — this issue
AXIOS2026 midterms

Pentagon tells Central Command to ready new Iran strike options the White House wants usable before the Nov. 3 midterms

Trump has not decided and no date is set; if major combat resumes, targets would include Iran's energy, infrastructure and nuclear sites.

The Pentagon has told U.S. Central Command (the military headquarters that runs U.S. operations across the Middle East) to finish preparing options for resuming major combat against Iran, U.S. officials told Axios. The White House asked for options that could be used before the Nov. 3 midterms. No launch date is set, and Trump has not made a final decision.

The meeting. Trump's national security team met for several hours at Camp David on Friday, Oct. 2. An Israeli official said part of that meeting covered resuming combat.

The political case. Supporters inside the administration admit limited strikes would not lower gas prices before Election Day. They argue the strikes would let Trump claim a win.

“It would make the president look like he got a win and that gas prices would start going down.” ([TS]The Atlantic's own reporting: crude has usually gone up, not down, when strikes resumed after a pause.)A Republican familiar with the deliberations, to The Atlantic

Still open. The size and targets are still being debated. A second Israeli official told Axios the chances before the election are “not high but we don't rule it out,” and that “after the midterms the chances of it happening increase significantly.”

Why limited strikes would not reopen Gulf oil before Election DayStrait of Hormuz oil flow, first half of 2025: 20.9 million barrels a day (EIA)3 details
  • Strait of Hormuz oil flow, first half of 2025: 20.9 million barrels a day (EIA)
  • Share of world petroleum use that passed through it: about one-fifth (EIA)
  • Saudi and UAE pipelines that can bypass the strait: about 4.7 million barrels a day (EIA)
Ongoing10 earlier updates27 days

This story has run 11 times over 27 days, starting Sep 11.

  1. August inflation holds at 3.4% annually; gasoline drives monthly increase
  2. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the year, lifting September Fed rate hike odds above 80%
  3. Trump threatens trade cutoff with some nations unless Fed lowers rates despite 3.4% inflation
  4. Update10-year Treasury yield hit 5.014% Monday, Sept. 14, first time since October 2023
  5. Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark rate a quarter point on Wednesday, Sept. 16, its first hike in three years.
  6. UpdateFed raises its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first increase since July 2023
  7. UpdateChicago Fed's Goolsbee says getting inflation to 2% will be 'painful' and require pushing employment below target
  8. Fed Governor Michael Barr says more rate increases are likely to counter inflation
  9. UpdateAugust PCE inflation was 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October Fed hike odds to 35% from 45%
  10. Markets pull back bets on October Fed and ECB rate hikes after weak US jobs data
  11. UpdateFed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end — this issue
THE HILLUpdateInflation and the Fed

Fed minutes show most officials expect another rate hike by year end

Most officials judged at least one more increase likely this year, but futures traders bet the Fed holds at its October meeting and waits until December.

The minutes. The Federal Reserve released minutes on Wednesday, Oct. 7, from its Sept. 15-16 meeting. They show most officials judged that another increase in the federal funds rate (the overnight bank borrowing rate that steers loan costs) would likely be appropriate by year end.

The September hike. At that meeting the Fed raised its target a quarter point to 3.75%-4%. It was the first hike in about three years, and every official backed it.

“In my base case, further policy adjustments are likely to be needed to ensure inflation comes down to target in a timely fashion.”Fed Governor Michael Barr

The other camp. Others are slower to commit. Since the meeting, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams have signaled they want more data first.

What next. The Fed meets again in late October. Futures traders give an October hold about 80.6% odds, per The Hill, and expect a hike in December.

Catch upwhat happened before · 10 earlier issues
  • Sept. 11 — August consumer prices rose 3.4% from a year earlier, with gasoline driving the monthly increase.
  • Sept. 14 — Trump threatened to cut off trade with some nations unless the Fed lowered rates. The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since October 2023.
  • Sept. 16 — The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4%, its first hike since July 2023. Trump demanded rates of "1%, or less."
  • Sept. 22-24 — Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said reaching 2% inflation would be "painful." Governor Michael Barr said more hikes were likely.
  • Oct. 1 — August PCE inflation came in at 3.4%, below the 3.7% forecast, cutting October hike odds to 35%.
  • Oct. 4 — Weak U.S. jobs data pulled back market bets on an October Fed hike.
9 earlier issues
CBS NEWSUpdateRussia-Ukraine war

Kremlin says it is open to a Trump-Putin call on a Siberian plague-lab worker's death, but no call is scheduled

Russia says none of 200 screened contacts had plague and is easing precautions; the WHO is still pressing Moscow for the cause.

Russia says it is open to scheduling a call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin "promptly" about the death of lab worker Darya Shipilova, 28, on Friday, Oct. 2, but none has been set. Trump said U.S. officials do not think the death is linked to a bioweapon. The U.S. has sent Moscow a démarche (a formal diplomatic demand for information).

Russia's tests. Russia screened 200 of her contacts for plague and found none. About 5,000 lab tests on contacts found no dangerous pathogens, and 90% of quarantined contacts have been released. The official cause is still pneumonia of unknown origin. Dmitry Peskov (Kremlin spokesman, Russia) said "the vast majority of what the media are reporting about this situation is false information."

The WHO. It wants the cause, the pathogen that set off Russia's precautions, and clarity on reports that a second employee has pneumonia.

What next. The WHO is waiting for Russia to hand over the medical evidence through its formal verification process under the International Health Regulations (the treaty rules for reporting outbreaks).

How we got herethe story so far
  • Oct. 2 — Darya Shipilova, 28, a worker at Siberia's Irkutsk Anti-Plague Institute, more than 2,500 miles from Moscow, died; Russia listed pneumonia of undetermined origin.
  • By Oct. 6 — U.S. officials were monitoring it as a suspected pneumonic plague death and Trump offered help; Russia quarantined a hospital and watched nearly 200 contacts.
  • By Oct. 7 — Trump said he would call Putin; Russia said tests had not linked the death to plague, and the State Department reissued its Level 4 do-not-travel warning.
NBC NEWSUpdate

DNC sues to block pro-Trump TV ads it says the White House paid for with $20 million in border-agency funds

Spots marked "Paid for by the U.S. Government" kept airing after Trump said on Monday, Oct. 5, that his super PAC would pay for them.

The Democratic National Committee sued the Trump administration in federal court in Washington on Wednesday, Oct. 7, over taxpayer-funded TV ads that promote Trump.

The claim. The suit says the White House budget office (OMB) moved $20 million of Customs and Border Protection money to pay for the ads, vs. the more than $12 million in taxpayer-paid airtime that ad tracker AdImpact has counted so far. It cites the law barring agencies from spending on "publicity or propaganda," the Anti-Deficiency Act (no spending money Congress did not provide) and the Purpose Statute (money only for the purpose Congress set). Fox reports the money went into a CBP "Commemorative Events" line that congressional reports limit to memorials, anniversaries and ceremonies.

The ask. The DNC wants a judge to declare the spending unlawful and block any more taxpayer-funded spots. Ads paid for privately are not covered.

The tab. Ad tracker AdImpact puts taxpayer-paid airtime above $12 million so far; Politico's Tuesday (Oct. 6) count was $11.6 million.

Still open. NBC reports the government's existing ad buy ends this week, and the White House declined to say when Trump's money actually takes over.

Government-paid ads promoting Trump began running on local TV in late September; on Monday, Oct. 5, Trump said his super PAC would pay for them going forward. The White House then said taxpayers would not be repaid the roughly $11 million spent since late September, against the $20 million the DNC suit says OMB moved for the ads. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said he would file an FEC complaint, though only 2 of the commission's 6 seats are filled.

How widely the taxpayer-paid ads aired, and what voters think2,311+ local TV airings of the ads in four days in late September (Axios)2 details
  • 2,311+ local TV airings of the ads in four days in late September (Axios)
  • 9% of Americans call taxpayer-paid election ads featuring the president appropriate (Reuters/Ipsos, via Axios)
WSJ

Kimberly Guilfoyle asked a Trump donor to wire $100,000 to her American Express bill before her ambassador confirmation hearing, messages show

On Wednesday, Oct. 7, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with Guilfoyle seated in front of him in Athens, called her "a strong ambassador."

Kimberly Guilfoyle, now U.S. ambassador to Greece, asked a Trump donor for $100,000 while preparing for her Senate confirmation hearing (the public questioning senators hold before voting on a nominee), according to messages the Wall Street Journal reviewed.

“It won't show up anywhere if you wire money to American Express. Please.”Kimberly Guilfoyle, on Signal (an encrypted messaging app), per the Journal

The donor. The donor wrote that he had already paid her $300,000 over the years and “I need results.” She answered: “Stop papering all these things. It's really dangerous. Just call me on Signal.”

The access. The same messages show her offering him access to top administration officials.

Still open. The published excerpts do not show whether the requested money was sent, or what the donor's earlier payments bought.

PBS NEWSHOUR

FBI charges Minnesota 18-year-old with plotting an ISIS-inspired Mall of America shooting after an undercover FBI employee sold him an AK-47

Prosecutors say he picked the mall's Hmong Arts Celebration on Saturday, Oct. 24, and said he meant to kill 30 to 60 people.

The sting. Sheikhdoon Abdullahi Mohamud, 18, of Richfield, Minnesota, was arrested in a park on Tuesday, Oct. 6, after paying an undercover FBI employee posing as an ISIS member $600 for an AK-47 and 200 rounds. The rifle had been made inoperable; the ammunition was live, per Fox News. An FBI informant had been messaging him since December 2024, about 22 months before the arrest.

The charge. He is charged with receiving a firearm and ammunition knowing they would be used in a federal crime of terrorism.

The alleged plan. Prosecutors say he told contacts he meant to kill 30 to 60 people. Asked if he was serious, he allegedly replied: "yes i am 100% sure ... I would have backed out by now if I wasn't sure."

Quick bites15

Courts4 bites

  1. Prosecutors expected to charge Maduro and wife with authorizing torture of Americans in Venezuelan prisons

    CBS NEWS

    The charges would cover more than a dozen wrongfully detained Americans and add to four counts, including narco-terrorism and weapons charges, that Maduro already faces, per CBS News.

    Where the case standsHearing: Flores's bond hearing is before Judge Alvin Hellerstein in Manhattan3 details
    • Hearing: Flores's bond hearing is before Judge Alvin Hellerstein in Manhattan
    • Trial: tentatively set for June 2027
    • Defense: Maduro attorney Barry Pollack says he has had no notice of new charges; the couple seek dismissal on sovereign-immunity grounds

  2. Judge orders Tennessee to preserve all evidence from Christa Pike's failed execution

    ABC NEWSUpdateCourts and the adminis…

    Nashville Chancellor I'Ashea Myles ordered Tennessee to keep all evidence from Pike's failed Sept. 30 execution: the drugs, syringes, IV lines, recordings and communications. The state must also try to recover anything already gone, as her lawyers say she has pneumonia and a blood clot, and cannot swallow or move her arms.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 6 earlier issues
    • Sept. 30 — A 2-1 6th Circuit panel halted Christa Pike's execution an hour before it began; the Supreme Court lifted the stay over three liberal dissents.
    • Sept. 30 — Pike, 50, survived two lethal pentobarbital doses after about an hour of IV attempts; Tennessee called off its last execution of 2026.
    • Oct. 3 — Pike lay unconscious on a ventilator; her lawyers moved to preserve evidence, and Republican lawmakers sought a review of the single-drug method.
    • Oct. 4 — Corrections chief Frank Strada said he would step down, insisting protocol was followed; a former U.S. attorney will run an independent review.
    • Oct. 5 — Pike's lawyer asked Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life.
    • Oct. 7 — Pike woke and began speaking; her lawyers renewed the commutation plea ahead of a court hearing.
    5 earlier issues
    Pike's condition and what's nextPike, 50, is still restrained at her hands and feet in her hospital bed.3 details
    • Pike, 50, is still restrained at her hands and feet in her hospital bed.
    • Her lawyers say they were told on Monday, Oct. 5, that she was brain-dead; her first words were "Where am I and who are you?"
    • Can Tennessee try again? The state says any new execution date is up to the Tennessee Supreme Court.
    Ongoing6

    This story has run 7 times over 7 days, starting Oct 1.

    1. UpdateSupreme Court lifts appeals court's last-minute stay of Christa Pike's Tennessee execution, three liberals dissenting
    2. UpdateChrista Pike survives two pentobarbital doses; Tennessee cancels its last 2026 execution
    3. UpdateChrista Pike unconscious on a ventilator after failed Tennessee execution; lawyers move to preserve evidence
    4. UpdateTennessee corrections chief Frank Strada will step down after the failed Christa Pike execution
    5. UpdateChrista Pike's lawyer asks Tennessee's governor to commute her death sentence to life
    6. UpdateChrista Pike is conscious and speaking a week after Tennessee's failed execution
    7. UpdateJudge orders Tennessee to preserve all evidence from Christa Pike's failed execution — this issue

  3. NAACP sues DOJ for records on its plan to send 1,000 election monitors to polls

    THE GUARDIAN2026 midterms

    The NAACP sued DOJ civil rights chief Harmeet Dhillon over its unanswered Sept. 1 records request. AG Todd Blanche says monitors in all 50 states are standard practice; NAACP counsel Kristen Clarke says no federal law lets DOJ send them to polling sites.

    • Dhillon has said she hopes to deploy 1,000 monitors in November.
    • The NAACP filed its records request on Sept. 1, 2026, and says DOJ never answered it.

  4. Texas set first U.S. execution since Christa Pike survived hers; lawyers say its pentobarbital is past its use date

    NBC NEWS

    Howard's lawyers asked for a stay of his execution. They argue Texas's pentobarbital may be degraded. Tennessee used the same drug when it failed to execute Pike. The lawyers say Texas's drugs are also degraded because they are far past their original beyond-use dates.

    • Howard was convicted of killing convenience store clerk Vickie Swartout, 42, in Silsbee, Texas, in 2000.
    • He also argues he is intellectually disabled, with an appeal pending at the Supreme Court.
    • If carried out, it would be the 30th U.S. execution this year; Texas has already carried out 6.
Money around the Trump circle2 bites

  1. Trump says he'll fire advisers LaCivita and Blair if their Bosnian Serb consulting is a conflict

    THE GUARDIAN2026 midterms

    The New York Times reported that each man was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to advise Bosnia's pro-Russia Republika Srpska government around its weekend elections.

    Who they are and who objectedBlair is on leave as White House deputy chief of staff while he works for MAGA Inc. on the midterms.3 details
    • Blair is on leave as White House deputy chief of staff while he works for MAGA Inc. on the midterms.
    • Trump on Truth Social: "if there's a conflict, I will terminate them, immediately!"
    • Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) criticized the pair; Steve Bannon called them "grifters" and asked for "a forensic audit of where the money went."

  2. Defense firms backed by Trump's sons have won over $6 billion in federal contracts since they invested

    ABC NEWSUpdate

    Anduril has won 135 government contracts, worth about $1.8 billion, since 1789 Capital, the venture firm where Donald Trump Jr. is a partner, invested in June 2025. The government's 40% stake is in Arsenal-2, a new shipyard subsidiary, not in Anduril. Its terms have not been disclosed.

    On Oct. 7, Trump announced a $6.6 billion Anduril shipyard in Baltimore. It will build parts for Virginia-class submarines. Trump claimed a 40% taxpayer stake but did not say what it meant. The yard is meant to add Virginia-class production capacity. The first parts are not due until 2030.

    Who pays for the $6.6B shipyardNavy share: $2.9 billion2 details
    • Navy share: $2.9 billion
    • Anduril's own investment: $3.7 billion
The Iran war3 bites

  1. CRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May

    THE HILLUpdateIran war

    Of the 81, 45 are MQ-9 Reaper drones; CRS says newly public information explains part of the jump, and it warns that losing aging, high-demand planes could leave gaps in other regions.

    Catch upwhat happened before · 30 earlier issues
    • Feb. 28 — The U.S.-Iran war began.
    • Sep. 8–10 — U.S. strikes hit five Iranian oil tankers and sank one; Iran fired 20 missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, which says it intercepted 18.
    • Sep. 11 — The Navy planned to keep two carrier groups near Iran through at least 2026.
    • Sep. 25–27 — Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. ended its blockade; Trump rejected the offer.
    • Sep. 30 — A Qatari compromise stalled; U.S. officials said major combat could resume after the Nov. 3 midterms.
    • Oct. 2 — Secretary of State Marco Rubio ordered Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump said Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer."
    29 earlier issues
    What else is in the countF-15E Strike Eagles: 12 lost or damaged (per Fox News)3 details
    • F-15E Strike Eagles: 12 lost or damaged (per Fox News)
    • KC-135 tankers: 7 lost or damaged (per Fox News)
    • The Pentagon says it does not comment on outside battle damage assessments.
    Ongoing30

    This story has run 31 times over 77 days, starting Jul 23.

    1. Trump Threatens to Bomb Iranian Bridges and Power Plants for Every Ship Hit in Strait of Hormuz
    2. Iran fires multiple ballistic missiles at U.S. base in Jordan; all are intercepted
    3. Iran denies Trump’s claim that new U.S. talks would start Monday
    4. Cargo ship is struck in the Strait of Hormuz
    5. Vance says the Iran talks are moving, then calls the war only half over
    6. Iran won't reopen Hormuz until the US unfreezes its assets and lifts the blockade
    7. Trump threatens to bomb Oman, the U.S. ally brokering the deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
    8. Trump declares an "economic D-Day" on Iran as Hormuz traffic runs 85% below normal
    9. UpdateU.S. goes nearly a month without large Iran strikes as Trump shifts back to sanctions; Hormuz remains closed
    10. U.S. destroys two Iranian rocket launchers loaded to mine the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at bases in Jordan, all intercepted
    11. UpdateU.S. bombs two Iranian rocket sites near the Strait of Hormuz; Iran fires eight missiles at Jordan
    12. UpdateU.S. forces struck IRGC air-defense, radar, maritime and mine-laying sites on Iran's southern coast starting at noon on Sept. 1
    13. UpdateU.S. hits about 100 Iranian targets; Iran fires back at American bases in four countries, and a cruise missile kills 4 at a wedding
    14. Reuters weapons experts say a US munition made a direct hit on the Iranian wedding house that killed 5
    15. US destroys or disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a US carrier and destroyer
    16. UpdateIran says it hit an unmanned US vessel a day after the tanker strikes; Central Command calls the claim "a total lie"
    17. UpdateIran says it will declare a restricted zone near the Strait of Hormuz and will strike threats "even before" they are carried out
    18. Iran says it seized a US sea drone in Hormuz; CENTCOM says it malfunctioned a day earlier
    19. UpdateIran fires 20 missiles at a US base in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted 18
    20. UpdateNavy plans to keep 2 carrier groups near Iran at least through 2026
    21. UpdateUnidentified projectile hits Iranian container ship off Hengam Island, killing 1 and wounding 4
    22. UpdateOil's chokepoint shifts to refineries and tankers as JPMorgan drops its baseline oil forecast
    23. UpdateTrump says he is choosing among wiping Iran out, letting it rot economically, or a deal, and would "probably" meet Pezeshkian at the UN this week
    24. UpdateIran offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. lifts its naval blockade as traffic falls to two ships
    25. Iran proposes seven-day ceasefire plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz and revive nuclear talks
    26. UpdateTrump rejects Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days in exchange for ending the U.S. blockade
    27. Trump expects more Iran talks this week after rejecting Iran's Hormuz offer; Iran won't soften its terms
    28. UpdateIran says its UN delegation has no talks planned with the US and will fly home Tuesday, Sept. 29; mediators keep working
    29. UpdateQatari compromise to end the U.S.-Iran war stalls; Trump denies aides' account that he offered Iran sanctions relief
    30. Rubio orders Iran's UN delegation out of New York; Trump says Iran will "sign a very fair deal, or they won't exist any longer"
    31. UpdateCRS: 81 U.S. aircraft and drones lost or damaged in Iran war, up from 42 in May — this issue

  2. CBS video shows Iranian strikes on US base in Kuwait as defenders ran low on ammo

    CBS NEWSIran war

    Service members at Camp Buehring, 25 miles from the Iraqi border, say Iranian F-5 jets joined the attacks and soldiers ran critically low on.50-caliber rounds. The base held about 7,000 troops before the war, most of them moved elsewhere; CENTCOM declined to comment.

    • The footage dates from early in the war; CBS says it authenticated it, and no other outlet has independently confirmed the details.

  3. Newsom demands 25th Amendment after Trump says of Iran, 'let them take out Los Angeles'

    TIMEIran war

    Newsom called Trump's Iran remarks "dangerous, if not treasonous." Trump made the remarks at a rally in Nebraska on Monday, Oct. 5. Newsom was reacting to a widely shared version of them. In it, Trump calls an Iranian strike on Los Angeles and San Diego a small price to pay. CNN's Daniel Dale said that version "isn't a direct quote." He said it is also not "a correct paraphrase."

    California's responseNewsom put California's threat-assessment center on alert to monitor for threats.3 details
    • Newsom put California's threat-assessment center on alert to monitor for threats.
    • Newsom cited more than 130,000 active-duty military personnel stationed in San Diego, one of the two cities named in the circulating version.
    • San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria: "No American city should ever be described as expendable or an acceptable price to pay."
Homeland Security's latest moves2 bites

  1. DHS proposes $70,000 fee for each international student post-graduation work permit, plus $30,000 per extension

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    DHS calls the Optional Practical Training program a "pipeline for cheap foreign labor" and cites fraud, and the public has 60 days to comment before the rule can be finalized.

    Who pays, and how muchWho pays is disputed: PBS NewsHour reports schools would pay, while Fox News reports the F-1 students themselves would.3 details
    • Who pays is disputed: PBS NewsHour reports schools would pay, while Fox News reports the F-1 students themselves would.
    • The Washington Post reports a university could face up to $100,000 in fees per student.
    • Doug Rand, an immigration policy analyst, argues DHS "has no authority to slap a $70k fee on international students"; legal challenges are expected.

  2. ICE bought 6,000 pairs of shock gloves for $16.7M after an Army study found they caused intense pain and fear

    PBS NEWSHOURImmigration enforcement

    The unreleased study, from an October 2024 exercise at Fort Leavenworth, found the gloves caused intense pain, instant compliance and lasting fear of being shocked again, while ICE calls them de-escalation devices.

    On the recordArmy study: participants said "just seeing the GLOVE was enough to make them want to comply." (NBC News)2 details
    • Army study: participants said "just seeing the GLOVE was enough to make them want to comply." (NBC News)
    • American Oversight's Chioma Chukwu: the assessment "does not establish that they are safe."
Also tonight2 bites

  1. ICE unit searched tens of millions of records for noncitizen voters and considered using undercover agents

    STATELINEImmigration enforcement

    A June 1 report shows HSI reviewed 82 voter-registration groups in Pennsylvania alone and also scrutinized groups in Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey and Ohio.

    What the records showJune 1 HSI report: "The objective is to determine potential opportunities to leverage UC (undercover) resources, including the…3 details
    • June 1 HSI report: "The objective is to determine potential opportunities to leverage UC (undercover) resources, including the possible deployment of undercover agents."
    • In late September, Attorney General Blanche indicted 10 noncitizens for unlawful voting.
    • Studies consistently find that noncitizen voting is rare.

  2. Trump sends one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million, under a third of enrollees

    PBS NEWSHOUR

    The payout skips everyone in Medicare Advantage. It also leaves out low-income and disabled enrollees who already get help paying their Part B premiums.

    Ongoing1

    This story has run 2 times over 4 days, starting Oct 4.

    1. Trump orders one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million seniors, paid from a 2008 fund
    2. Trump sends one-time $90 Medicare premium rebates to 20.8 million, under a third of enrollees — this issue
Elections2 bites

  1. Leaked audio: Ken Paxton tells donors the Iran war and gas prices, not tariffs, are dragging his Senate campaign

    AXIOSIran war

    Paxton (R-TX) cited diesel above $6 a gallon and added, "I don't make the decisions"; this is his third leaked recording after earlier tapes blamed Trump's convention for hurting his numbers and said D.C. controls his race.

    The rescue effortThe Senate GOP super PAC, MAGA Inc. and others are spending heavily to save Paxton (Politico).3 details
    • The Senate GOP super PAC, MAGA Inc. and others are spending heavily to save Paxton (Politico).
    • A Republican in the rescue effort: "He is welcome to raise his own money and say whatever he wants."
    • Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo: Paxton is "preparing to blame others for what might be one of the most embarrassing defeats in modern political history."
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 25 days, starting Sep 13.

    1. UpdateSenate Republican allies booked $51 million in Texas ads to back Ken Paxton
    2. Thom Tillis (Sen-R North Carolina) says Trump backing Ken Paxton (R-TX) risks Texas Senate seat.
    3. Leaked audio: Ken Paxton tells donors the Iran war and gas prices, not tariffs, are dragging his Senate campaign — this issue

  2. Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers says in NRSC co-funded ad to end Canada tariff war now

    POLITICOTariffs and trade

    The ad says "Canada is not our enemy" and never names Donald Trump, who said he took it to mean Canada should make a deal.

    Also in the recordRogers ran an earlier ad urging a quick end to the Iran war; it also did not name Trump.3 details
    • Rogers ran an earlier ad urging a quick end to the Iran war; it also did not name Trump.
    • Michigan trades about $80 billion a year with Canada, per Politico.
    • Trump: "Canada has been ripping off our country for many, many years."
    Ongoing2

    This story has run 3 times over 15 days, starting Sep 23.

    1. Kamala Harris campaigns in Detroit to shore up Black voters for Abdul El-Sayed
    2. Obama will campaign in Detroit on Oct. 24 for Michigan Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed (D-MI)
    3. Michigan GOP Senate nominee Mike Rogers says in NRSC co-funded ad to end Canada tariff war now — this issue

Elections22 races

The midterms · 26 days out · November 3, 2026

D or R take the House / Senate?

Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT

U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 90%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 64%, Kalshi 63%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.

U.S. House — Democrats take it, 89.5–91.5%
92%90%chance Democrats take it · 2.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 92% and Kalshi 90%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 62.5–63.5%
64%63%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues down this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 64% and Kalshi 63%.

3 closest races

  • xGeorgia governorRick Jackson 52.5%▲1.3Keisha Lance Bottoms 46.5%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia governor — general election

    Rick Jackson (R) faces Keisha Lance Bottoms (D).

    Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia governor. Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 50.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 47.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • yNevada governorAaron Ford 54.5%▲6.6Joe Lombardo 45.5%

    POLYMARKET: Nevada governor — general election

    Aaron Ford (D) faces Joe Lombardo (R).

    Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead after gaining about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nevada governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nevada governor. Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 52.5%; Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 47.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • tIowa SenateAshley Hinson 55.5%▲2.6Josh Turek 45.0%

    POLYMARKET: Iowa Senate — general election

    Ashley Hinson (R) faces Josh Turek (D).

    An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

The other 19 races22 races · 13 still in doubt · Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT · markets, not polling

Senate9 of 10

  • sAlaska SenateMary Peltola 75.0%▲3.9Dan Sullivan 25.5%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska Senate — general election

    Mary Peltola (D) faces Dan Sullivan (R).

    A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 4.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 73.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 27.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 4.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • aaGeorgia SenateJon Ossoff 96.67%▲0.7Collins 3.38%

    POLYMARKET: Georgia Senate — general election

    Jon Ossoff (D) faces Mike Collins (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Georgia Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.4pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 96.85%, Kalshi 96.50%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 3.20%, Kalshi 3.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.4pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • qMaine SenateTroy Jackson 57.3%▲1.9Susan Collins 43.0%

    POLYMARKET: Maine Senate — general election

    Troy Jackson (D) faces Susan Collins (R).

    Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Maine Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 57.0%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 42.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • uMichigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed 71.5%▲1.2Rogers 29.5%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan Senate — general election

    Abdul El-Sayed (D) faces Mike Rogers (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 72.5%, Kalshi 70.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • abNebraska SenatePete Ricketts 72.3%▲0.7Osborn 28.0%

    POLYMARKET: Nebraska Senate — general election

    Pete Ricketts (R) faces Dan Osborn (I).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.

    Two markets, one question

    Nebraska Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 71.5%, Kalshi 73.0%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 28.5%, Kalshi 27.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • acNew Hampshire SenateChris Pappas 89.3%▲3.410.5%Sununu

    POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election

    Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side lost about four points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New Hampshire Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.5pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 90.0%, Kalshi 88.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 10.5%, Kalshi 10.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.5pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • zNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 96.63%▲2.1Whatley 3.35%

    POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election

    Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    North Carolina Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.7pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 96.30%, Kalshi 96.95%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 3.6%, Kalshi 3.1%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.7pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • vOhio SenateSherrod Brown 62.0%▲3.0Jon Husted 38.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio Senate — general election

    Sherrod Brown (D) faces Jon Husted (R).

    A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 61.5%, Kalshi 62.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 38.5%, Kalshi 37.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • rTexas SenateJames Talarico 66.0%▲5.2Ken Paxton 34.0%

    POLYMARKET: Texas Senate — general election

    James Talarico (D) faces Ken Paxton (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about five points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas Senate

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 65.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 34.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

Governors10 of 12

  • aeAlaska governor20.5%▲4.578.6%WilsonBegich 0.8%

    POLYMARKET: Alaska governor — general election

    Bernadette Wilson (R) faces Tom Begich (D).

    Wilson holds a clear lead after gaining about five points in six days.

    Two markets, one question

    Alaska governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 19.5%, Kalshi 21.5%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 1.0%, Kalshi 0.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

  • agArizona governorKatie Hobbs 89.5%▲1.210.5%Biggs

    POLYMARKET: Arizona governor — general election

    Katie Hobbs (D) faces Andy Biggs (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Arizona governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 90.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 9.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • akFlorida governorByron Donalds 77.5%▲0.5David Jolly 22.5%

    POLYMARKET: Florida governor — general election

    Byron Donalds (R) faces David Jolly (D).

    Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Florida governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 77.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 23.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • adIowa governorRob Sand 87.5%▲2.813.0%Lahn

    POLYMARKET: Iowa governor — general election

    Rob Sand (D) faces Zach Lahn (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about three points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Iowa governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 3.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 86.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 14.5%, Kalshi 11.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • afMichigan governorJocelyn Benson 92.72%▲1.8James 7.10%

    POLYMARKET: Michigan governor — general election

    Jocelyn Benson (D) faces John James (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.

    Two markets, one question

    Michigan governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.2pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 93.35%, Kalshi 92.10%; John James (R): Polymarket 6.55%, Kalshi 7.65%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • aiNew York governorKathy Hochul 95.38%Blakeman 5.03%

    POLYMARKET: New York governor — general election

    Kathy Hochul (D) faces Bruce Blakeman (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    New York governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.9pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 95.55%, Kalshi 95.20%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 4.60%, Kalshi 5.45%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • pOhio governorAmy Acton 67.0%▲6.7Vivek Ramaswamy 33.0%

    POLYMARKET: Ohio governor — general election

    Amy Acton (D) faces Vivek Ramaswamy (R).

    Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead after gaining about seven points in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Ohio governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 1.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 66.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 33.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ajPennsylvania governorJosh Shapiro 97.17%▲0.9Garrity 2.63%

    POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election

    Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).

    The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Pennsylvania governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 0.8pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.80%, Kalshi 97.55%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.70%, Kalshi 2.55%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • ahTexas governorGreg Abbott 73.33%▲6.226.50%Hinojosa

    POLYMARKET: Texas governor — general election

    Greg Abbott (R) faces Gina Hinojosa (D).

    The Republican side holds a commanding lead, but no race here has moved more this week: it is down about seven points.

    Two markets, one question

    Texas governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.3pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 72.15%, Kalshi 74.50%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 26.5%, Kalshi 26.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.3pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

  • wWisconsin governorDavid Crowley 80.5%▲0.819.5%Tiffany

    POLYMARKET: Wisconsin governor — general election

    David Crowley (D) faces Tom Tiffany (R).

    An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.

    Two markets, one question

    Wisconsin governor

    Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT
    widest venue gap 2.0pp
    • Polymarket, solid
    • Kalshi, dashed
    • shaded = the gap between them

    Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 81.5%, Kalshi 79.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 18.5%, Kalshi 20.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.

    7 days ago

    Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.

    These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.

“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Oct 7, 9:55 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.