Environmental and public health groups sued the same day the final rule published (Sept. 17).
This is the fourth federal attempt at power plant carbon rules in 11 years: Obama's 2015 Clean Power Plan (stayed by the Supreme Court in 2016), Trump's 2019 replacement (vacated in 2021), the 2024 standards, and now this repeal. The Supreme Court's 2022 West Virginia v. EPA ruling barred EPA from basing power-plant rules on a shift away from coal and gas generation, limiting the agency to controls at the plants themselves. EPA's own filing says the repeal rests on “a reevaluation” of the legal and technical basis for the 2024 standards.
ContextThis is the fourth federal attempt at power plant carbon rules in 11 years: Obama's 2015 Clean Power Plan (stayed by the Supreme Court in 2016), Trump's 2019 replacement (vacated in 2021), the 2024 standards, and now this repeal. The Supreme Court's 2022 West Virginia v. EPA ruling barred EPA from basing power-plant rules on a shift away from coal and gas generation, limiting the agency to controls at the plants themselves. EPA's own filing says the repeal rests on “a reevaluation” of the legal and technical basis for the 2024 standards.
Trump threatened tariffs or a trade embargo on the EU if Canada joins as an associate member.
Sept. 11 — Trump, asked why he had not escalated the Iran conflict, pointed to the coming midterm elections. Sept. 14 — With U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed, Carney began seeking associate-member status with the EU.
Context“Associate member” would sit beside the EU's existing tiers of closeness — Norway's EEA membership inside the single market, Switzerland's web of bilateral treaties, Ukraine's candidacy — but it is none of them; it is a status the EU would have to invent, which is why no treaty text, timetable or list of which single-market rules Canada would accept has been published. Carney called the alliance “a beacon for other democracies” and described the moment as a “ferocious storm” — he has been steering Canada away from reliance on the U.S. market since bilateral trade talks collapsed earlier this month.
Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio), an ex officio board member, had asked for the hearing after the Trump-aligned board voted to shut the building Tuesday, Sept. 15 for a two-year, $285 million rebuild.
- Sept. 4 — Part of the grand foyer ceiling collapsed during storms. No one was hurt. - Sept. 14 — Internal papers warned of "certain financial collapse" within weeks, saying putting Trump's name on the building might be the only way to avoid bankruptcy. - Sept. 16 — A judge voided the vote to rename the building. The board closed it anyway for two years, and Trump said the rebuild — now priced at $285 million, up from $250 million in May 2026 — waits for a court win on his name.
ContextThe Kennedy Center is a federal memorial to John F. Kennedy, run by a board the president appoints. Trump replaced its leadership and made himself chairman in February 2025. Cooper blocked an earlier version of the shutdown plan in May 2026, when the price tag was $250 million. The rebuild is now priced at $285 million against the $257 million Congress has appropriated for the work, and Trump has said it waits until a court clears the way for his name on the building.
Environmental and public health groups sued the same day the final rule published (Sept. 17).
The Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule Thursday, Sept. 17, repealing most of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards — the Biden-era limits on greenhouse gases from fossil fuel-fired power plants. EPA says it is acting on "a reevaluation" of the legal and technical basis for those standards, which had required coal and gas plants to cut carbon dioxide or shut down by set dates.
Environmental and public health organizations filed suit over the repeal, arguing EPA cannot walk away from limits it already found achievable.
What next. The repeal took effect on publication Thursday, Sept. 17 — the same day the suit was filed.
Ongoing2 earlier updates4 days
This story has run 3 times over 4 days, starting Sep 14.
Trump threatened tariffs or a trade embargo on the EU if Canada joins as an associate member.
The invitation. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told the European Parliament on Thursday, Sept. 17, that Canada welcomes an invitation to join the European Union as its first "associate member" — a status that does not exist yet and would have to be built from scratch. "A Canada-EU alliance would create a beacon for other democracies," he said.
Trump's warning. Donald Trump, asked about it Wednesday, Sept. 16, said the arrangement could be "a hostile act" and that he would answer with tariffs or a trade embargo against the bloc. Carney, in Strasbourg, said he was pressing ahead through what he called a "ferocious storm."
Still open. No EU treaty text, timetable or list of which single-market rules Canada would accept has been published, and any deal would need agreement from all 27 member states.
Catch upwhat happened before · 2 earlier issues
Sept. 11 — Trump, asked why he had not escalated the Iran conflict, pointed to the coming midterm elections. Sept. 14 — With U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed, Carney began seeking associate-member status with the EU.
Trump tapped Schroyer, a former Oklahoma state trooper, in June. Republicans blocked his confirmation hearing — Senate Homeland Security Chairman Rand Paul held it up over requests for information about the Minneapolis shootings of Renée Good and Alex Pretti by immigration officers. Axios reported Schroyer's limited immigration experience had also become a fight between Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin and border czar Tom Homan. ICE still has no Senate-confirmed director.
Rep. Salazar says Trump's deportations went "too far" and Hispanics who backed him "feel betrayed"
María Elvira Salazar (Rep-R Florida) made the charge in a campaign ad for her Miami seat released Thursday, Sept. 17, and fellow House Republicans are already hitting her for it.
Also tonight7 bites
UN mission finds reasonable grounds to believe U.S. committed war crimes in two February airstrikes in Iran, on a school in Minab and a sports complex in Lamerd
The UN's fact-finding mission on Iran said Thursday, Sept. 17, that it found “reasonable grounds” to believe U.S. forces committed war crimes in two airstrikes inside Iran in February — one hit a primary school in Minab, the other a sports complex in Lamerd. Washington has not acknowledged either strike; the same report accuses Iran's government of crimes against humanity against Iranians. The mission reports to the UN Human Rights Council — it has no power to charge anyone.
Judge sets deadline for AG Todd Blanche on Epstein files, warns of contempt
U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan gave Attorney General Todd Blanche until Sept. 24 to turn over Epstein records covered by his earlier orders — handwritten FBI interview notes and foreign-language materials the Justice Department said it could not produce — or explain why the orders were not “clear and unambiguous.” If DOJ misses the deadline, Sullivan warned in a Wednesday, Sept. 16 opinion, contempt proceedings could follow.
US grants visas for Iran's president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Araghchi while barring the Palestinian delegation for a second year
The US granted visas to President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi so they can attend the UN General Assembly in New York — the State Department limited admission to a “core delegation.” Pezeshkian is listed to address the assembly Wednesday, Sept. 23. Admitting UN delegations is not discretionary: the 1947 UN Headquarters Agreement obliges the U.S. to let accredited delegations reach UN business. Whether it covers the Palestinians is the contested part — the PA and PLO hold non-member observer status at the UN, not full membership. Days earlier the administration denied visas to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the PLO delegation for the second straight year, saying the PLO and PA had failed their commitments.
State Department OKs potential $24B fighter jet sale to Saudis
The State Department approved a potential $24 billion sale of F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia over objections from lawmakers worried about Israel's qualitative military edge.
Senate Democrat blocks House-passed bill on data center electricity costs
Sen. Martin Heinrich blocked Sen. Jon Husted's attempt to pass the Ratepayer Protection Act by unanimous consent, stalling a House-passed bill to make data centers cover their electricity price impact
India faces 100% tariff threat over Russian oil after US House vote
A House vote puts India at risk of 100 percent tariffs over its purchases of Russian oil, squeezing both its energy strategy and its access to the US market.
EU announces plan to restrict social media access for under-15s
The European Commission announced a plan to bar children under 15 from opening their own social media accounts.
Elections22 racesShowHide
The midterms · 46 days out · November 3, 2026
D or R take the House / Senate?
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 90%, Kalshi 89%. U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it, Polymarket 60%, Kalshi 59%. Full day-by-day figures are in the table below.
U.S. House — Democrats take it, 88.5–89.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
90%89%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. House: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 90% and Kalshi 89%.
U.S. Senate — Democrats take it, 58.5–59.5%
0% Dem50%100% Dem
7d agotoday
60%59%chance Democrats take it · 1.0pp apart · both venues up this week
U.S. Senate: chance Democrats take it. Today, Polymarket 60% and Kalshi 59%.
No House district is priced by either book — the House appears here as chamber control only
Each bar is one contract: will Democrats control this chamber after the 2026 midterms. The Republican share is the arithmetic complement of that price, not a separately traded market. Republicans hold the House and the Senate, so the figure printed there is the chance Democrats take them. Two venues price each contract; where they differ the lighter wedge is how far apart they are, and the panel on the right is the week.
two venues, priced separately
shaded = how far apart they are
50% — control flips here
where it stood 7 days ago
the last 7 days, on its own scale
week panel: one line a party
The week panel draws one line per party, crossing where control does. Only the Democratic line is a traded price: the Republicanline is its arithmetic complement, the same mirror the bar’s other half is, and not a second market agreeing with the first. The shading around each line is how far apart the two venues are.
Market prices are not forecasts with error bars; they are the last price two sets of traders agreed on. The gap between the venues is the closest thing here to a stated uncertainty. The bar runs 0–100%; the week panel beside it is zoomed to its own data and prints its top and bottom, because a two-point move is four pixels wide on a 0–100% scale and was previously drawn there anyway.
The two chambers are not the same kind of bet. The House sits far enough from the flip line that the venues’ disagreement barely matters; the Senate sits close enough that their 1.0pp gap / 1.0pp gap is a meaningful share of the distance to 50%.
Who is defending the House and the Senate is sourced, not remembered — House, 2026-07-23 issue: the NDAA passed “216-212, with six Democrats joining a unified Republican majority.”; Senate, 2026-08-10 issue: “Republicans hold 53 of the Senate's 100 seats.”
Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
PolymarketU.S. House · todayWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control90%
Republican, implied10%
volume$6.6M
7-day move+3.0pp
KalshiU.S. House · todayWill Democrats win the House in 2026?
Democratic control89%
Republican, implied11%
volume12M contracts
bid / ask88% / 89%
7-day move+2.5pp
PolymarketU.S. Senate · todayWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Democratic control60%
Republican, implied40%
volume$2.8M
7-day move+6.0pp
KalshiU.S. Senate · todayWill Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Democratic control59%
Republican, implied41%
volume4.0M contracts
bid / ask58% / 59%
7-day move+10pp
Probability that Democrats control each chamber, as each venue prices it, by day.
Day
U.S. House · Polymarket
U.S. House · Kalshi
U.S. Senate · Polymarket
U.S. Senate · Kalshi
7 days ago
87%
86%
54%
48%
6 days ago
87%
86%
53%
49%
5 days ago
88%
85%
54%
49%
4 days ago
87%
86%
59%
49%
3 days ago
89%
86%
59%
52%
2 days ago
90%
86%
60%
55%
yesterday
90%
89%
60%
56%
today
90%
89%
60%
59%
3 closest races
sNevada governorJoe Lombardo 53.8%▲4.3Aaron Ford 44.5%
Nevada's Republican governor is defending his job, and the Republican side holds a narrow lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nevada governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 3.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nevada governor. Joe Lombardo (R): Polymarket 52.0%, Kalshi 55.5%; Aaron Ford (D): Polymarket 44.5%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Joe Lombardo 54% · Aaron Ford 45%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
A special election, to serve out the rest of someone else's Senate term, and the Democratic side holds a narrow lead.
Two markets, one question
Ohio Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 0.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio Senate. Sherrod Brown (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 54.5%; Jon Husted (R): Polymarket 45.5%, Kalshi 45.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Sherrod Brown 55% · Jon Husted 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Georgia's governor's office is open, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia governor. Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): Polymarket 56.5%, Kalshi 53.5%; Rick Jackson (R): Polymarket 43.5%, Kalshi 46.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Keisha Lance Bottoms 54% · Rick Jackson 46%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D)7 days ago · party contract
A sitting Republican senator is defending this seat, and Peltola holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Alaska Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Alaska Senate. Mary Peltola (D): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Sullivan (R): Polymarket 33.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Mary Peltola 68% · Dan Sullivan 33%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Georgia Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 0.9pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Georgia Senate. Jon Ossoff (D): Polymarket 93.5%, Kalshi 94.1%; Mike Collins (R): Polymarket 6.75%, Kalshi 5.85%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.9pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Jon Ossoff 94% · Mike Collins 5.9%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open seat, with no incumbent running, and the Republican side holds a clear lead.
Two markets, one question
Iowa Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 0.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa Senate. Ashley Hinson (R): Polymarket 60.5%, Kalshi 60.5%; Josh Turek (D): Polymarket 39.5%, Kalshi 39.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Ashley Hinson 61% · Josh Turek 40%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Democrats only got a candidate here after their primary winner withdrew, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Maine Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Maine Senate. Troy Jackson (D): Polymarket 70.5%, Kalshi 67.5%; Susan Collins (R): Polymarket 29.5%, Kalshi 32.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Troy Jackson 68% · Susan Collins 32%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan Senate. Abdul El-Sayed (D): Polymarket 64.5%, Kalshi 64.5%; Mike Rogers (R): Polymarket 35%, Kalshi 37%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Abdul El-Sayed 65% · Mike Rogers 37%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Nebraska Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Nebraska Senate. Pete Ricketts (R): Polymarket 67.5%, Kalshi 68.5%; Dan Osborn (I): Polymarket 32.5%, Kalshi 30.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Pete Ricketts 68% · Dan Osborn 31%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: New Hampshire Senate — general election
Chris Pappas (D) faces John E. Sununu (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead after the Republican side gained about three points in a week.
Two markets, one question
New Hampshire Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 3.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New Hampshire Senate. Chris Pappas (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 80.5%; John E. Sununu (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 3.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Chris Pappas 81% · John E. Sununu 19%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. New Hampshire Senate, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT.
Day
Chris Pappas · Polymarket
Chris Pappas · Kalshi
John E. Sununu · Polymarket
John E. Sununu · Kalshi
7 days ago
83.5%
84.0%
14.5%
16.0%
6 days ago
84.5%
85.0%
15.0%
15.0%
5 days ago
83.5%
85.0%
15.5%
17.0%
4 days ago
80.5%
85.0%
17.5%
16.0%
3 days ago
82.0%
82.0%
18.5%
18.0%
2 days ago
84.0%
82.0%
16.5%
19.0%
yesterday
83.5%
82.0%
16.5%
19.0%
today
83.5%
80.5%
16.5%
19.5%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
tNorth Carolina SenateRoy Cooper 92.47%▲1.1Whatley 8.10%
POLYMARKET: North Carolina Senate — general election
Roy Cooper (D) faces Michael Whatley (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
North Carolina Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 0.8pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
North Carolina Senate. Roy Cooper (D): Polymarket 92.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Michael Whatley (R): Polymarket 8.5%, Kalshi 7.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.8pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Roy Cooper 92% · Michael Whatley 7.8%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a clear lead, but no race here has moved more this week: the Republican side is down about seven points.
Two markets, one question
Texas Senate
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas Senate. James Talarico (D): Polymarket 57.5%, Kalshi 56.5%; Ken Paxton (R): Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: James Talarico 57% · Ken Paxton 43%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Alaska governor. Bernadette Wilson (R): Polymarket 24%, Kalshi 25%; Tom Begich (D): Polymarket 0.85%, Kalshi 0.40%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 6–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Bernadette Wilson 24% · Tom Begich 0.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Arizona governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Arizona governor. Katie Hobbs (D): Polymarket 87.5%, Kalshi 88.5%; Andy Biggs (R): Polymarket 12.5%, Kalshi 12.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Katie Hobbs 88% · Andy Biggs 12%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Florida's governor's office is open, and the Republican side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Florida governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Florida governor. Byron Donalds (R): Polymarket 79.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; David Jolly (D): Polymarket 20.5%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Byron Donalds 79% · David Jolly 21%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Iowa governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Iowa governor. Rob Sand (D): Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 78.5%; Zach Lahn (R): Polymarket 23.0%, Kalshi 21.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Rob Sand 78% · Zach Lahn 22%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead — though the two venues moved in opposite directions this week.
Two markets, one question
Michigan governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 0.3pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Michigan governor. Jocelyn Benson (D): Polymarket 91.5%, Kalshi 91.3%; John James (R): Polymarket 9.50%, Kalshi 9.25%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.3pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Jocelyn Benson 91% · John James 9.4%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
New York governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 1.2pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
New York governor. Kathy Hochul (D): Polymarket 93.50%, Kalshi 92.45%; Bruce Blakeman (R): Polymarket 6.5%, Kalshi 7.7%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.2pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Kathy Hochul 93% · Bruce Blakeman 7.6%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Ohio is choosing a new governor, and the Democratic side holds a clear lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Ohio governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 1.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Ohio governor. Amy Acton (D): Polymarket 54.5%, Kalshi 55.5%; Vivek Ramaswamy (R): Polymarket 44.0%, Kalshi 44.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 1.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Amy Acton 55% · Vivek Ramaswamy 44%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
POLYMARKET: Pennsylvania governor — general election
Josh Shapiro (D) faces Stacy Garrity (R).
The Democratic side holds a commanding lead.
Two markets, one question
Pennsylvania governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 0.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Pennsylvania governor. Josh Shapiro (D): Polymarket 96.75%, Kalshi 97.20%; Stacy Garrity (R): Polymarket 2.60%, Kalshi 3.05%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 0.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Series run 7–8 samples because the venues listed these markets on different days; a short line starts late rather than being stretched across a week it was never priced over.
Money-weighted: Josh Shapiro 97% · Stacy Garrity 3.0%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
The Republican side holds a commanding lead after the Democratic side gained about five points in a week.
Two markets, one question
Texas governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 2.0pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Texas governor. Greg Abbott (R): Polymarket 77.5%, Kalshi 76.5%; Gina Hinojosa (D): Polymarket 22.5%, Kalshi 24.5%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.0pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: Greg Abbott 77% · Gina Hinojosa 24%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
An open governorship, and the Democratic side holds a commanding lead that has barely moved in a week.
Two markets, one question
Wisconsin governor
Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT widest venue gap 2.5pp
Polymarket, solid
Kalshi, dashed
shaded = the gap between them
Wisconsin governor. David Crowley (D): Polymarket 83.5%, Kalshi 81.5%; Tom Tiffany (R): Polymarket 16.5%, Kalshi 19.0%. Widest disagreement between the two venues: 2.5pp. Full history is in the table below.
7 days ago
Market-implied chance of winning, out of 100 — prices, not polls. Source: Polymarket · Kalshi.
Prices are what each venue’s traders were paying, right-aligned to the snapshot: the last sample is today, the one before it yesterday. Every series here is 8 samples long.
Money-weighted: David Crowley 82% · Tom Tiffany 18%. Volume is each venue's own reported figure — Polymarket in USD, Kalshi in contracts. They are not a common unit, so read the weighting as a tilt, not a conversion.
Every sample behind the chart. Wisconsin governor, snapshot Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT.
Day
David Crowley · Polymarket
David Crowley · Kalshi
Tom Tiffany · Polymarket
Tom Tiffany · Kalshi
7 days ago
82.5%
82.0%
17.5%
19%
6 days ago
82.5%
81.0%
17.5%
20%
5 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
15.5%
20%
4 days ago
83.5%
81.0%
16.5%
19%
3 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
20%
2 days ago
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
21%
yesterday
83.5%
80.0%
16.5%
19%
today
83.5%
81.5%
16.5%
19%
These contracts price the party, not the named person — the venues list the seat before the nominee is settled.
“Still in doubt” means no leader above 80% on either book. Prices captured Sep 17, 9:08 PM CT. These are trader-implied estimates, not polls. Separate contracts trade independently, so opposing prices may not add to exactly 100%.
Not news news1 story
Ongoing1 earlier update2 days
This story has run 2 times over 2 days, starting Sep 16.
UpdateJudge orders 30 days' written notice before any change to the Kennedy Center, including demolition, but refuses an emergency hearing on this week's closure — this issue
Joyce Beatty (Rep-D Ohio), an ex officio board member, had asked for the hearing after the Trump-aligned board voted to shut the building Tuesday, Sept. 15 for a two-year, $285 million rebuild, up from the $250 million plan a judge blocked in May 2026.
The order. U.S. District Judge Christopher Cooper ruled Thursday, Sept. 17 that the government must give 30 days' written notice before making any change to the Kennedy Center "including but not limited to any 'demolition'" of the main building.
The refusal. He turned down a separate request from Beatty for an emergency hearing on the board's vote to close the venue, which shut its doors Tuesday, Sept. 15.
What it buys. The order does not stop the closure. Nothing structural can happen to the building without a month's warning filed in court — Beatty's lawyers get a window to challenge the closure before any demolition could begin.
What next. The 30-day clock only starts if the administration files notice. No filing has been made, and no hearing date is set.
Catch upwhat happened before · 1 earlier issue
Sept. 4 — Part of the grand foyer ceiling collapsed during storms. No one was hurt.
Sept. 14 — Internal papers warned of "certain financial collapse" within weeks, saying putting Trump's name on the building might be the only way to avoid bankruptcy.
Sept. 16 — A judge voided the vote to rename the building. The board closed it anyway for two years, and Trump said the rebuild — now priced at $285 million, up from $250 million in May 2026 — waits for a court win on his name.
