Trumpdate (8.16.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NEWS NEWS
Project 2025 Exposed: Hidden-camera video reveals secret preparations for potential Trump second term.
Ukraine's Military Advance: Ukraine establishes military office in occupied Kursk region, claims control of 82 settlements.
Medicare Drug Prices: Agreements reached to lower prices for 10 highest-cost drugs.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Millennial Wealth Surge: Homeownership and investments boost Millennials' finances, surpassing previous generations.
Christian Nationalism Awareness: Survey shows varying levels of familiarity with Christian Nationalism across political spectrum.
US Chip Production: US Chips Act set to increase America's share of global semiconductor production.
Luxury Apartments Impact: Building high-end apartments puts downward pressure on rents across all price points.
Congressional Polarization: Republicans in Congress have shifted further right than Democrats have moved left since 1972.
1.) CNN: Hidden-camera video shows Project 2025 co-author discussing his secret work preparing for a second Trump term
Vought leads the Center for Renewing America and claims to be working closely with Trump, despite Trump's public disavowal of Project 2025.
He said his team is secretly drafting hundreds of executive orders, regulations, and memos for a potential Trump administration, calling it creating "shadow" agencies.
He criticized the GOP for focusing too much on "religious liberty" instead of "Christian nation-ism."
Vought argued that the president has the ability to use the military to maintain law and order, potentially bypassing the Posse Comitatus Act.
[TS] There is a lot of stuff here. The videos are fairly damning. Say’s Trump is “very supportive” of their work. He could be embellishing how much Trump trusts him, or outright lying to get more funding (possible!). Doesn’t seem likely, given the recent stories about Trump’s ties to Project 2025.
2.) REUTERS: Ukraine opens military office in occupied Kursk region, says it is still advancing
Ukraine says forces control 82 settlements, still advancing
Ukraine sets up military office inside Russian border
Russia to beef up border defenses, says attacks continue
Russia inches closer to Pokrovsk logistics hub in east
3.) Medicare has reached agreements to lower the price for 10 of the highest-cost drugs.
[TS] Genuinely good stuff here. Voting matters.
QUICK BITES:
Trump says some strange things at a rally.
“When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman.”
“Virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gotten to migrants,” said Trump, “You know that? Most of the job creation has gone to migrants. In fact, I’ve heard that substantially more than — uh, beyond, actually beyond the number of 100%, it’s a much higher number than that, but the government hasn’t caught up with that yet, but virtually right now as of the time they did this virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants.”
Trump calls Minnesota "a very failed state” (Minnesota finished 6th in CNBC’s 2024 America’s Top States for Business study.)
"I'm very angry at her ... I think I'm entitled to personal attacks. I don't have a lot of respect for her. I don't have a lot of respect for her intelligence … She certainly attacks me, personally. She actually called me weird. 'He’s weird'. It was just a sound bite. And she called JD and I weird."
You're all going to be thrown into a communist system. You will be thrown into a system where everybody gets health care.
“San Francisco, you know, is, was a great city 15 years ago.”
(15 years ago, the Mayor was Gavin Newsom, and the DA was Kamala Harris)
“And as you know, the Supreme Court ruled recently on immunity, and I'm immune from all of this stuff that they charged me with”
[TS] Notable that he’s not saying he’s innocent, but that he’s immune.
[TS] Not something he said, but Fox removed their ticker showing the Dow hitting 40,000 after Trump tries to claim the stock market is going to “crash.” Might have been a coincidence.
Trump talks a lot about Biden buying Venezuelan oil, but Trump’s monthly petroleum imports from Venezuela were 6x higher than Biden’s.
Kamala calls for the construction of 3 million housing units as part of her economic speech today. Harris will offer tax incentives for builders that construct properties for first-time home buyers.
[TS] I think building homes is great - but why add the overhead of the tax administration?
TX’s Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) Sues Biden Administration Over Rule Forcing Private Businesses and States to Implement "Transgender” Policies.
For the second day in a row, Texas has chosen to file a new lawsuit seeking nationwide relief against a federal policy in Amarillo—where it has a 100% chance of being assigned to Judge Kacsmaryk.
POLITICO: Trump campaign brings Corey Lewandowski back on board
Corey Lewandowski said under oath in congressional testimony “I have no obligation to be honest with the media.”
JD Vance in 2021, while discussing earlier waves of immigration to the US:
"You had this massive wave of Italian, Irish and German immigration and that had its problems, its consequences. You had higher crime rates, you had these ethnic enclaves, you had inter-ethnic conflict in the country where you really hadn't had that before."
[TS] Old school nativism. Perhaps he’s making the argument that immigration works out in the end?
4.) WSJ: The Dramatic Turnaround in Millennials’ Finances
Soaring home prices and smart investments have helped boost a generation once considered perpetually behind
Millennials who were able to buy homes by are now a lot richer. They even appear to be ahead of Gen X and Boomers at this point in life.
But those left out feel even further behind.
[RELATED]
Per Ernie Tedeschi:
It's actually been evident in the data for a while now that in inflation-adjusted terms, Millennial wealth and home equity has been in line with or better than prior generations at the same age.
5.) How many people have heard of Christian Nationalism?
Ryan Burge from Eastern Illinois University pulled data together from PRRI/Brookings from 2022.
Among "extremely liberal" folks, only 8% had never heard of Christian Nationalism.
Among conservatives, 40%+ had no awareness of Christian Nationalism.
[TS] Honestly, that is way more than I would have guessed. Good to get a reality check on genpop.
6.) US Chips Act is reshaping global semiconductor landscape.
America looks set to produce around one-third of global supply for leading-edge chips by 2032
US rise will come at expense of South Korea, which could become minor player for top-notch chips
7.) Building luxury apartments puts downward pressure on rents at all price points.
[TS] Sounds counter intuitive, but it’s true. Jay Parsons (housing and rental economist) has been tracking the data. His summary:
When you build "luxury" new apartments in big numbers, the influx of supply puts downward pressure on rents at all price points -- even in the lowest-priced Class C rentals. Here's evidence of that happening right now:
There are 21 U.S. markets where Class C rents are falling at least 4% YoY. What is the common denominator? You guessed it: Supply. Of those, all but one have supply expansion rates ABOVE the U.S. average.
There's no demand issue in any of these 21 markets. They're all among the absorption leaders nationally -- places like Austin, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Raleigh/Durham, Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, Charlotte, Orlando, etc. But they all have a lot of new supply.
Simply put: Supply is doing what it's supposed to do when we build A LOT of apartments. It's a process academics call "filtering." New pricey apartments are pulling up higher-income renters out of moderately priced Class B units, which in turn cut rents to lure Class C renters, and on down the line it goes.
Less anyone still in doubt, here's another factoid: Where are Class C rents growing most? You guessed it (I hope!) -- in markets with little new supply. Class C rent growth topped 4% in 22 of the nation's 150 largest metro areas, and nearly all of them have limited new apartment supply.
Most new construction tends to be Class A "luxury" because that's what pencils out due to high cost of everything from land to labor to materials to impact fees to insurance to taxes, etc.
So critics will say: "We don't need more luxury apartments!"
Yes, you do. Because when you build "luxury" apartments at scale, you will put downward pressure on rents at all price points.
8.) PEW: Republicans in Congress have moved farther to the right since 1972 than Democratic lawmakers have moved to the left.
