Kamala Harris Gains in Polls: Harris continues to improve in national polling average against Trump.
Labor Market Boost: Hamilton Project reports stronger employment growth for both US-born and foreign-born workers than previously estimated.
Fed Rate Cut Outlook: Atlanta Fed President Bostic cautious about rate cuts, wants more data before supporting reduction.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Ukraine's Kursk Operation: Analysis of Ukraine's strategic options following their incursion into Russia's Kursk region.
Martian Water Discovery: Liquid water reservoir found deep in Martian rocks using seismic data from NASA's InSight lander.
Harris Campaign Ad Tactics: Kamala Harris campaign using Google ads to rewrite news headlines, mimicking real search results.
IRA Manufacturing Delays: 40% of Biden's major IRA manufacturing projects face delays due to various economic and political factors.
Plastic Surgeons Break Consensus: American Society of Plastic Surgeons distances itself from "gender-affirming care" consensus for minors.
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1.) Kamala ticks up another 1.2% in the Silver forecast.
Per Nate:
Today's update. Harris is *still* gaining on Trump on our national polling average, now 3.1 points.
[TS] I’m a little surprised to see polling continue to improve for Kamala. I expected the “honeymoon” period, but this seems like a rather long honeymoon. Dems would still expect to get a boost from the DNC convention (we’ll see if that happens). Still a lot of money to be spent on ads, and still a long way to go. Anything can happen (big shift in econ, terrorist attack etc.).
2.) Hamilton Project: The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment
Employment growth of both U.S.-born and foreign-born people in the U.S. exceeded published estimates. Contrary to published estimates, employment grew for U.S.-born workers in 2023.
Rather than increasing by 1 million between Jan 2023 & 2024, they estimate that household employment in the CPS rose by 2.5 million instead once population estimates are corrected to incorporate recent immigration trends
Their estimate closes virtually all of the gap between the household & establishment surveys. A crucial insight they make is that even with a higher foreign-born share, their higher population growth implies there was 930K more employment growth among U.S.-bornworkers over 2023.
Interesting argument that the household survey has undercounted net employment growth by about 1.5 million people between January 2023 and January 2024, with ~1mn of that attributable to workers *born in the U.S.*
3.) BLOOMBERG: Fed’s Bostic Says More Data Needed, Rate Cut Likely by Year-End
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates, emphasizing he wants to be sure the US central bank will not have to change course once it begins cutting.
“We want to be absolutely sure,” Bostic said Tuesday in remarks to the Conference of African American Financial Professionals in Atlanta. “It would be really bad if we started cutting rates and then had to turn around and raise them again.”
[TS] This seems like an unforced error. The risks of not cutting the rate seem to far outweigh cutting at this stage. I would shocked if they don’t cut in Sep…I think you’ll see a MASSIVE negative reaction from the markets/world.
[RELATED]
The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to a record $1.11 trillion over the last 12 months, more than doubling over the past two years. At the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security.
Protesters with IfNotNow have blocked off the 405 freeway in West LA. They are calling for all elected Democrats ahead of the DNC to call for a lasting ceasefire in Gaze, reject AIPAC money, and call for an arms embargo to Israel.
[TS] Like I said previously - there is no appeasing these people. They should be ignored. It was ceasefire but now it’s ceasefire AND arms embargo?
John Bolton on Trump’s story where he told Putin “Don’t ever do it.” regarding invading Ukraine: It’s “another case of Trump making things up that are hard to prove or disprove. There wasn't an occasion where Trump would be able to have that conversation privately, but it fits the persona that Trump thinks he has.”
[TS] While I agree with Bolton, it’s hard for me to recommend any network cover anything he says given his actions during the administration:
He was subpoenaed to testify but refused to comply, and instead wrote a book about what happened. Embarrassing stuff.
Some pretty subtle ads from the official Trump campaign:
Trump campaign says "over $1 million was raised" from the links for the X Space interview with Elon Musk. [TS] This seems…fairly low. For reference, Elon said it reached “a billion views.” As a point of comparison: The ‘White Dudes for Harris’ call raised $4M and it didn’t even have the candidate on the call.
CA Gov Newsom (D) calls for all California schools to go phone free:
“The evidence is clear: reducing phone-use in classrooms promote concentration, academic success & social & emotional development. We’re calling on California schools to act now to restrict smartphone use in classrooms. Let’s do what’s best for our youth.”
[TS] I’m a big fan of this. It needs to be top down, otherwise it won’t work.
Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), who voted to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment, plans to vote for him in November. [TS] Oof. I genuinely don’t understand how someone could be so unprincipled and frankly, spineless.
[RELATED] Former Gov of Arizona Doug Ducey (R) endorses Trump. [TS] A knife to the back of the McCain family.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “Russia brought war to others, now it’s coming home.” [TS] Pair that with a headline like this:
AP: A constitutional amendment that qualified for the ballot in Missouri could guarantee a right to abortion while reversing the state’s near-total ban on the procedure.
Washington Examiner: Tim Walz called Hitler-promoting cleric a ‘master teacher’ at Islamic center event.
NBC: Former Kansas police chief formally charged over Marion newspaper raid.
The police chief that raided the small paper in Marion County Kansas that ended up killing that poor woman has finally been charged. Not for the raid, but for obstruction.
Two ballot measures in Wisconsin that would have transferred power over spending decisions from the (Democratic) governor to the (Republican) legislature have both failed, by identical 58–42% margins.
Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI): The CCP’s Digital Charm Offensive.
A recent study from the Network Contagion Research Institute found that TikTok “amplifies frontier influencers (travel and lifestyle content accounts) and irrelevant or clickbait material, to crowd out discussion of CCP-driven ethnic genocide and human rights abuses on its platform.”
US crude oil production has officially hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day.
AP: Indiana attorney general drops suit over privacy of Ohio girl who traveled for abortion
It took 2 years for this scurrilous case to be dropped, but finally the doctor who cared for a pregnant 10-year-old rape victim has been exonerated.
4.) [UPDATE] Ukraine’s Operation in Kursk, Russia.
Mick Ryan has a good summary of the options available to Ukraine:
The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost one week into execution. As the Russians slowly but surely redeploy forces to seal off the breach in their border and attempt to push the Ukrainians back into Ukraine, it is worth pondering the options the Ukrainians might have once they reach their limit of exploitation.
Like all military operations, this will have been planned as a multiphase operation, including the prelude shaping operations. These would have included intelligence collection, force preparation, deception, operational security, logistics and other aspects necessary to prepare the Ukrainian force for battle.
Other phases will have been planned, including the ‘break in’ and ‘break through’ battles, ongoing exploitation and consolidation phases. These phases will have a range of forces and support elements applied to each.
The Ukrainian’s first phase, the ‘break in’ and ‘break through’ are complete. They are currently in an ‘exploitation’ phase. Many operations also normally include a ‘limit of exploitation’ governed by terrain, logistics and reaction of the enemy, as well as the objectives of the operation.
What might be Ukraine’s strategic options once they reach their limit of exploitation? I think they probably have three options. Each will have minor branch plans, as well as opportunities and risks.
OPTION 1
Option 1 is for the Ukrainians to consolidate on the terrain they have seized so far and then defend it until some form of negotiation takes place. This is the highest risk option because the Ukrainian dispositions feature multiple small salients which would be easily cut off and destroyed by even a semi-competant Russian commander.
The high probably of losing a large number of forces in this scenario makes it a strategic & political liability. Ukraine could lose battalions and brigades, as well as artillery, EW and air defence it could not afford to lose. This option, should it go bad, would also squander the very positive strategic messaging that has been generated by the Ukrainian surprise attack into Russia.
The objective for this option would be to continue posing a significant risk to Russian sovereignty and critical assets, and constitute a draw for Russian forces from Ukraine. It might also provide Ukraine some leverage if forced into negotiations in the near future. It is questionable whether the downside risks of this option are worth the return however.
OPTION 2
The 2nd option is for the Ukrainians to undertake a partial withdrawal from the territory it has seized, back to ground that is more defensible. This is a medium risk option, with a decreased risk of Option 1.
This would rely on the Ukrainians conducting a withdrawal into pre-designated terrain that is easier to defend, requires a smaller quantity of troops to defend, and is able to be supported by fires, logistics and other functions more effectively.
This option would also ensure that more troops could be reallocated after the operation to other activities, be they defending in the Donbas or subsequent cross-border attacks into Russia where there is an opportunity to do so.
Option 2 allows Ukraine to maximize the political and strategic benefits of the strategic shock, while reducing the risks of losing that combat force. It would still require large numbers of combat and support troops to defend the seized Russian territory, and would demand a major engineer effort to build minefields and other obstacles, trench-lines and deep bunkers and logistic storage locations.
The objective for this option would be to continue posing a risk to Russian sovereignty, comprise an ongoing draw for Russian forces from Ukraine and to give Ukraine some leverage if forced into negotiations in the near future. The humiliation of Putin and his military is also important. The risks of this opportunity might be worth the potential gains.
OPTION 3
The third option for Ukraine would be to fully withdraw back to the international border between Russia and Ukraine. This would permit Ukraine to maximize the political and strategic benefits of operation into Russia while preserving a large body of experienced combat troops that might be employed on subsequent offensive operations in 2024 and 2025.
By choosing this option the Ukrainians would be messaging to the Russians that “we can invade and hurt your country if we choose, but we have no wish to occupy our neighbours”. While the Ukrainian invasion may allow Putin to reinforce his point to Russians about the ‘threat from NATO’, he also appears weak because he was not able to punish those who conducted the operation in Kursk.
The objective for this option would be to humiliate Putin, preserve Ukrainian combat forces, while sending a strategic message to Ukraine’s supporters that they can go on the offensive and do so in a manner which does pose an existential risk to the ground forces conducting the operation.
Given the preservation of Ukrainian forces under this option, it will probably be the one that gives Zelenskyy the best domestic political boost and improvement in Ukrainian morale.
A range of factors will have an influence on which option the Ukrainian government chooses. These factors include how the Russians change their force posture in Ukraine (including in the Donbas), the Russian response in Kursk, domestic and international political considerations, and the sustainability of the operation itself.
[TS] For a more detailed look at the options above, see the full article here.
5.) BBC: Reservoir of liquid water found deep in Martian rocks
Liquid water was found on Mars for the first time, at depths of 6-12 miles in the Martian crust.
The discovery was made using seismic data from NASA's InSight lander, which recorded over 1,300 quakes during its four-year mission.
[TS] Would be really interesting to access that water and see if there is any life. Hopefully, it’s already in the works!
6.) AXIOS: Harris campaign's Google ads rewrite news headlines
It's a common practice in the commercial advertising world that doesn't violate Google's policies, but the ads mimic real news results from Search closely enough that they have news outlets caught off guard.
According to Google's ad transparency center, the Trump campaign isn't running these types of ads, but this technique has been used by campaigns before.
The ads say that they are sponsored, but it's not immediately clear that the text that accompanies real news links iswritten by the campaigns and not by the media publication itself.
7.) FT: Delays hit 40% of Biden’s major IRA manufacturing projects
The delays raise questions around Biden’s bet that an industrial transformation can deliver jobs and economic returns to the US
Reasons: deteriorating market conditions, slowing demand, high materials costs, regulatory impediments (eg, permitting), labor constraints, & political uncertainty.
The American Society of Plastic Surgeons, an organization representing 92% of all board-certified plastic surgeons in the U.S., becomes the first major medical association to break from the consensus over “gender-affirming care” for minors.
ASPS acknowledges the “low quality” nature of the evidence for Rx. It emphasized that it has never endorsed WPATH’s “standards of care” or the Endocrine Society’s 2017 CPG.
ASPS also said it is currently “reviewing and prioritizing several initiatives,” presumably to provide members with better guidance.
[TS] This is coming off the heels of WPATH suppressing reviews/evidence (which I’ve covered previously). ASPS joins:
United Kingdom: While gender-affirming care is available, the Cass Review led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, and there has been a shift toward more cautious and multidisciplinary approaches, especially for minors.
Sweden: Sweden has restricted access to certain types of gender-affirming care for minors. In 2021, Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare issued guidelines restricting the use of puberty blockers and hormone therapy for minors outside of clinical trials.
Finland: Finland has also tightened its guidelines on gender-affirming care, particularly for minors, recommending psychotherapy as the primary treatment rather than medical interventions.
Norway: Similar to Sweden and Finland, Norway has implemented more restrictive guidelines on gender-affirming care for minors, emphasizing psychological support and cautioning against medical interventions unless under specific circumstances.
[TS] ASPS might also be changing because at least 7 ASPS members are currently being sued by detransitioners.
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