Trumpdate (7.4.24):
🇺🇸HAPPY FOURTH OF JULY! 🇺🇸
🚨No Trumpdate from July 5th thru Jul 16th🚨
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Biden Presidency: Pressure mounts for Biden to step aside as poll numbers drop - Biden “all in.”
Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Israel announces largest West Bank land appropriation since Oslo Accords
NOT NEWS NEWS
US Energy Transition: Renewable energy consumption surpasses coal for first time in a century
US Border Security: Illegal border crossings plummet to pre-pandemic levels
AI Investment Gap: Sequoia Capital highlights $600B discrepancy between AI investment and revenue
Mental Health Policy: NY Mag argues for forced treatment of severely mentally ill
Social Cohesion Decline: Americans' trust in each other significantly decreased over 50 years
1.) The potential for Biden stepping aside is still dominating the news.
Highlights:
AP: President Biden on campaign call that wrapped, per person on the call:
"Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.”
[UPDATE] Biden campaign emails the same message out, “I’m not leaving…”
Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) became the second Dem in congress to urge Biden to leave the race.
[TS] Preference cascade, or bandwagon effect? Granted, there probably has to be more than (2) to make that determination…
Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) said he was leaving the door open to supporting a Democrat other than Biden.
Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-MI) said Biden needs to make the case quickly to the American people that he has the stamina to do the job.
Nancy Pelosi: It’s a 'legitimate question' whether Biden's debate performance was a 'condition' or just an ‘episode.
[UPDATE]
The NYT/Siena post-debate poll shows Trump widening his lead among likely voters nationally by 3 percentage points.
Trump: 49%
Biden: 43%
It is Trump's largest ever lead in a Times poll.
[TS] Another very interesting tidbit in the poll: % of *Republicans* saying Biden should stay in the race, per NYT/Siena poll:
Pre-debate: 21%
Post-debate: 28%
[TS] I don’t know what’s going to happen, but the odds do not seem to be getting better for Biden, and if the goal for Dems is to defeat Trump (as it should be), then replacing Biden shouldn’t be off the table.
Could Biden overcome this (like Reagan)? Yes, but that assumption rests on Biden never having a performance or a moment like that debate again. Once is recoverable, but if it keeps happening—which seems likely—the recent, feeble image voters have of Biden will harden. Biden is down in the polls (and has been); he can’t afford to stay away from the media.
[UPDATE 2]
Biden set to have an interview on ABC tomorrow (Fri). ABC was originally planning to air just a clip of the Biden interview on Friday evening, then televise other parts over the weekend, but now
It "will air in its entirety as a primetime special, Friday, July 5, at 8:00 p.m. ET/PT on ABC." Additionally, "a transcript of the unedited interview will be made available the same day."
[TS] A much better + more transparent plan.
2.) TIMES OF ISRAEL: Israel announces largest appropriation of state land in West Bank since Oslo Accords.
Israel is taking over 2,965 acres in the Jordan Valley and declaring them as state land. That means they are now legally suitable for building settlements according to Israeli law. This is the largest appropriation of land since the Oslo process. It also accompanies other large expropriations, including 1,976 acres also in the Jordan Valley in March, 650 acres east of Jerusalem, and 42 acres in the Etzion Bloc.
[TS] This is not a smart decision by someone who truly wants peace between Israel/Palestine. Expanding settlements at this time undermines the PA, thereby strengthening Hamas. It also enflames tensions in the West Bank, which inspires terrorism. This is not only immoral, it is also irresponsible.
QUICK BITES:
Trump's Project 2025 leader: "We are in the process of the second American Revolution, which will remain bloodless if the left allows it to be.”
CREW: The private prison behemoth GEO Group became the first corporation whose PAC maxed out to Donald Trump’s campaign in February. The same month, the company used a subsidiary to give an additional $500k to a pro-Trump super PAC.
Putin met with Xi Jinping for the second time in less than two months.
China is also developing attack drones for Russia.
Justice Kavanaugh in 2018:
"No one has ever said, I do not think, that the president is immune from civil or criminal process. So immunity is the wrong term to even think about in this process.”
"I do not think anyone thinks of immunity. And why not? No one is above the law."
AP: NFL is liable for $4,707,259,944.64 in ‘Sunday Ticket’ case
3.) In 2023, the US consumed more energy from renewables than coal for the first time in over 100 years.
[TS] Don’t get too cheery, fossil fuels still accounted for 83% of national energy consumption.
[RELATED]
[TS] The much-discussed slowdown in EV demand is hard to see in the data:
4.) CBS: Illegal border crossings are plummeting. Preliminary data for June show they're lower than they were in June 2019, Trump's last prepandemic year.
5.) SEQUOIA Capital: AI’s $600B Question
[TS] Interesting article about the big gap between the revenue expectations implied by the AI infrastructure build-out, and actual revenue growth in the AI ecosystem, which is also a proxy for end-user value.
[TS] I think it’s reasonable to assume the investment-revenue gap will persistent (potentially extending well beyond Nvidia's upcoming B100 chips) given the enormous potential wealth creation of AI. The first company to achieve transformative AI capabilities is likely to reap disproportionate rewards (ie 'winner-takes-most’). Not hard for me to imagine boards continuing to green light current/higher levels of speculative investment given this potential for paradigm-shifting returns, even if it means sustaining short-term “losses.” I guess we’ll see either way!
6.) NY Mag: The Case for Forcing the Mentally Ill Into Treatment
[TS] A good article to read in full.
A brief summary:
A homeless man with a psychotic disorder enters a New York subway, causing fear among passengers. While some argue that these fears are irrational or bigoted, the reality is that people with mental illness are more likely to commit violent crimes, particularly if they are untreated and homeless. Recent incidents of random attacks by mentally ill individuals on the subway have heightened these fears. The current approach to mental health management has failed, and there is a need for more government intervention and lower barriers to involuntary treatment to help those with severe mental illness and protect the public.
7.) Americans trust each other far, far less than they did 50 years ago. A 21% drop.
