Trumpdate (7.3.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Legal: Trump's NY sentencing delayed to September
French Politics: Candidates withdraw to block far-right party
US Politics: Rep. Doggett calls on Biden to withdraw from race
NOT NEWS NEWS
Economy: CRFB compares Trump and Biden debt accumulation
Manufacturing: US hits record high in manufacturing construction spending
Health Crisis: US leads in death rates from illicit drugs
Naval Power: China's shipbuilding capacity dwarfs US industry
1.) Justice Juan Merchan has delayed sentencing in the People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump until September 18th.
[TS] I guess we’re seeing some of the effects of the SCOTUS immunity start to cascade down.
2.) BBC: French election candidates withdraw in bid to block far right
The deadline for candidate declarations in the French elections ended Tuesday. Many left and centre candidates withdrew to block the far-right National Rally (RN). Between 214-218 third-placed contenders stepped aside, reducing the number of three-way races to around 108. This strategy aims to focus anti-RN votes on a single candidate.
(130 from the left, 82 from macron’s center camp)
[RELATED]
[TS] Young people in France seem to reject centrism. Macron’s party wins among people aged 70+, and absolutely bombs with 18-24s:
3.) TEXAS TRIBUNE: Rep. Loyd Doggett is first Democratic member of Congress to call on Biden to withdraw from race.
“President Biden has continued to run substantially behind Democratic senators in key states and in most polls has trailed Donald Trump,” Doggett said in a statement Tuesday. “I had hoped that the debate would provide some momentum to change that. It did not. Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump’s many lies.”
[TS] Could be a one-off event or a domino into something bigger. Time will tell.
QUICK BITES:
Rudy Giuliani has been DISBARRED in New York
Jewish News: The peace campaigner who came to kill: Richard Ferrer reveals for the first time the full story of the Gazan who, after partnering with an Israeli on a peace project, arrived at her kibbutz on 7 October to murder her.
Donald Trump reposted an image calling Liz Cheney “guilty of treason” and for her to be prosecuted in “televised military tribunals.”
Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao reveals Oakland Government Officials allegedly received donations laundered through a sex trafficking drug ring.
More information on Trump International Oman: “The $500 million Trump International Oman has launched with an expected opening in 2028 and the Trump Org probably just earned a large payment from a Saudi company as Trump runs for president.”
CBS Poll Question: Should US Presidents have immunity from prosecution for actions taken as President?
NO: 70%
YES: 30%
Trump suggests electric planes can’t fly when it’s not sunny.
RFK Jr. ate a BBQ’d dog in Asia, and refuses to deny a sexual assault allegation. [TS] I don’t even think this story cracks in the top 5 this week - wild week!
4.) CRFB: Trump vs Biden: Debt Accumulation
Last week, we showed how much new ten-year debt President Trump and President Biden specifically approved during their time in office – $8.4 trillion by Trump and $4.3 trillion by Biden.
Debt accumulation, meanwhile, shows how much the debt actually grew during each four-year term – though importantly, this is largely due to laws already on the books before a president took office:
➤ Federal debt held by the public grew by $5.9 trillion over the first three years and five months of President Trump’s term in office, and $7.2 trillion over his full term.
➤ Debt held by the public has grown $6.0 trillion during the President Biden’s three years and five months in office.
[TS] It is still wild to me that Trump's tax cuts added more debt than the Infrastructure bill, Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS. Act, PACT Act and funding the IRS COMBINED.
Speaking of manufacturing spending….
5.) US hits record high for US manufacturing construction spending last month.
The record was powered by another new record high for computer/electronic manufacturing spending in the wake of the CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act.
[TS] By state this really emphasizes who’s growing and adding jobs. Per Joey Politano:
Over the last year, nearly $54B has been spent on manufacturing construction in Texas & surrounding states—plus nearly $42B in the Mountain West, $40.5B in the Great Lakes, and $32.8B in the Southeastern coast.
[RELATED] What we’re not spending money on: Public Transport
Dollars spent on transit were the lowest since 2018 and the lowest % of transport spending since 2009. ([TS] The data is for May, so it doesn't even account for the impacts of NY's congestion pricing cancellation)
And “it’s not just that transit spending has declined as a share of total spending—It's also that, since the 2021 federal infrastructure law passed, state + local construction spending on transit infrastructure has *declined* even as highway spending has exploded.” per Yonah Freemark.
[TS] Would love to see mass transit taken seriously in the US. Even if self driving cars become more mainstream (outside of Waymo / Cruise - which actually have self driving cars in service vs Tesla who just claims they will for 10+ years running…) mass transit will still have a lot of utility.
6.) Death rates from illicit drugs are the highest in the United States.
Every year over 100,000 people die in the US from overdoses, the vast majority from opioids.
7.) One shipyard in China has more shipbuilding capacity than the entire U.S. naval shipbuilding industry.
This has become beyond unacceptable, but because it’s a slow moving crisis that won’t prove disastrous unless there is a (low probability) conflict, we continue to just largely talk…
We need a massive shipbuilding industrial base investment backed with a clear shipbuilding budget plan to justify the investment for the coming decade.