Trumpdate (7.31.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Sudan Famine Crisis: Military blocks UN aid trucks at border as starvation spreads.
Harris Polling Update: Closing leads in swing states, but still an electoral college underdog.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Venezuela Protests: Thousands demand change after Maduro allegedly steals election.
Beirut Airstrike: Israel kills Hezbollah commander, tensions escalate.
Supreme Court Immunity Case: Background on Chief Justice Roberts as he lead the 6-3 decision granting broad immunity to former presidents.
National Debt Apathy: Americans show decreasing concern as debt crisis looms.
San Francisco Nonprofit Scandal: Director charged with embezzling $700K.
Record Low Layoffs: U.S. job market shows resilience.
Global Education Progress: Number of out-of-school children declines 40% since 2000.
Sports Gambling Study: Legalization leads to increased debt and financial problems for some consumers.
1.) NYT: As Starvation Spreads in Sudan, Military Blocks Aid Trucks at Border
A country torn apart by civil war could soon face one of the world’s worst famines in decades, experts said.
As Sudan hurtles toward famine, its military is blocking the United Nations from bringing enormous amounts of food into the country through a vital border crossing, effectively cutting off aid to hundreds of thousands of starving people during the depths of a civil war.
What is forbidden from crossing into Sudan, however, are the U.N. trucks filled with food that are urgently needed in Darfur, where experts say that 440,000 people are already on the brink of starvation.
2.) Harris polling update
Decent news for the Harris camp: She seems to be closing most leads in the seven swing states. A few things to note from pollster Adam Carlson:
Outliers are a thing — Michigan and Pennsylvania are not 15 points apart (even accounting for margin of error that’s insane.)
Differential partisan non-response is a thing — and appears to be artificially inflating Harris’ numbers in some polls
Nate Silver’s model now has Harris favored in the popular vote but still at a significant electorate college underdog:
[RELATED-ish]
New ad from Harris. [TS] She is making smart moves here. Clearly listening to some sober advisers on what genpop’s pain points are:
[TS] Keep in mind — and I haven’t heard this really been hammered home by Dems — Border crossings are lower today than when the previous administration left office. It sounds surprising. But it’s factually true per CBS. Illegal border crossings are at the lowest level since the fall of 2020.
[RELATED 2]
QUICK BITES:
Trump continues to try and distance himself from Project 2025: “Project 2025 had nothing to do with the campaign…”
[TS] A few comments on this. For one, the Project 2025 director Paul Dans has stepped down at Heritage Foundation after pressure from Trump campaign leadership. How do you square Trump’s comments with that? The Trump campaign says it’s not connected to Project 2025 but got the director of Project 2025 fired because of the blowback it is having on his campaign? Heh?
And two, there are 3 months until the election. Trump has done no real transition work. How do you think they are going to staff 4,000 political positions. It’s cost free to trash Project 25 now for political reasons & then take their database to pick & choose from after winning election.
AG Garland gives interview on NBC. He was asked about Cannon’s ruling:
"I picked this room for this interview. This is my favorite room in the Justice Department. It’s a law library. For more than 20 years, I was a federal judge," Garland said. "Do I look like somebody who would make that basic mistake about the law? I don’t think so."
Kamala expected to announce her running mate by next Tue in PA. [TS] That means it might be lean Shapiro. Progressives say she’ll lose support if she picks Shapiro (because he’s Jewish), but this is absurd. Because there is no pleasing the far left. There’s literally an article about protestors complaining about Walz to divest from Israel. Ignore them, and pick the best candidate to help you win the swing states.
Harris raised $200M in a week. For reference, Obama raised $150M in Sep in 2016 (which blew away records).
3.) The people of Venezuela demand change.
Thousands gathered for the citizen assembly called today by opposition leader María Corina Machado after Maduro steals Sunday's election
[TS] As they should. Venezuela's GDP per capita in 2022 was lower than it was 77 years earlier
4.) NPR: Israel says it killed a Hezbollah commander in Beirut it blames for a deadly strike
Israeli airstrike in Beirut kills top Hezbollah commander and 3 civilians, injuring 74. Israel claims retaliation for Golan Heights attack. Hezbollah denies involvement. Tensions escalate, raising fears of wider conflict. US informed pre-strike. Lebanon PM condemns attack. Israel says it doesn't seek war but is prepared. Hezbollah warns of response.
5.) CNN: The inside story of John Roberts and Trump’s immunity win at the Supreme Court
A little history on this by Ryan Goodman:
Makes clear - as Charlie Savage anticipated in his 2007 book - that CJ Roberts saw Presidential immunity opinion as opportunity to create maximalist presidential powers. With no compromise.
Article Summary
"There was an immediate and clear 6-3 split."
"In their private session on the case the next day...the votes on the core issue lacked any ambiguity and Roberts was ready to write with bold strokes."
Chief Justice John Roberts has shifted towards a more conservative stance, abandoning his previous efforts at compromise. In the Trump immunity case, Roberts led a 6-3 decision granting broad immunity to former presidents, surprising observers with his lack of attempts to find middle ground. This marks a turning point in Roberts' leadership, as he takes on more significant cases and aligns more closely with conservative colleagues. The decision has far-reaching implications for presidential power and ongoing legal cases involving Trump. Justice Barrett attempted to narrow the ruling's scope, while the liberal justices strongly dissented. Overall, Roberts appears to be embracing a more assertive and conservative approach to leading the Supreme Court.
6.) REASON: Why Did Americans Stop Caring About the National Debt?
[TS] Good article that explores the paradox that the faster the federal debt accelerates towards a debt crisis, the less voters seem to care.
As a background, the debt is projected to soar past 230% of GDP within three decades under current policies - and even that assumes low interest rates don't push it towards 300% of GDP. By then, interest would consume 50-80% of all annual taxes.
Rather arresting graphic too:
7.) San Fran Standard: Fired SF nonprofit director Kyra Worthy charged with embezzling $700K
She used nonprofit funds to pay her rent and for lavish parties.
[TS] This is almost comical at this point, this is what, the third(?) SF non-profit that got in trouble for this exact thing in the last three months.
8.) Layoffs are at an all time low
Data by BLS, chart per Justin Wolfers:
9.) The global number of children not attending school has declined by nearly 40% since 2000.
10.) Working Paper: The Financial Consequences of Legalized Sports Gambling
Paper location.
Summary by author Brett Hollenbeck:
We study how the widespread legalization of sports gambling over the past five years has impacted consumer financial health.
In 2018, SCOTUS ruled that states cannot be prohibited from allowing sports betting, and 38 states have since legalized sports gambling. This has led to a large new industry and a large increase in gambling accessibility. Roughly $300 billion has been bet and is growing fast.
While for most gamblers it is a harmless form of recreation, we know that some fraction become problem gamblers with potentially severe financial consequences.
We study these financial outcomes using a large and comprehensive dataset on consumer finances known as the UC Consumer Credit Panel (maintained by CA Policy Lab). This allows us to track all credit and debt outcomes for roughly 7 million Americans.
We leverage this data and compare states implementing sports gambling to those that don’t and study both sports gambling of any type as well as online/mobile gambling specifically. We study 8 financial/debt outcomes and find the following results:
First, credit scores, a summary metric of overall creditworthiness, decrease by modest but statistically significant amounts (~1%). We also test for evidence of pre-trends between treated/control states and find none.
Note that we study average effects, and for the typical person or even the typical gambler we don’t expect to find any change, therefore a modest change at the population level indicates potentially severe change for the fraction of people who are most impacted.
Second, several measures of excessive debt increase substantially. We find a roughly 28% increase in bankruptcies and an 8% increase in debt transferred to debt collectors. Similarly, auto loan delinquencies increase substantially as does use of debt consolidation loans.
Interestingly, we find that banks restrict access to credit on average in affected states. Credit card limits decrease and the ratio of secured to unsecured loans increases. After three years post-legalization we actually find a decrease in credit card delinquencies as a result.
In conclusion, we find broad evidence that legal sports betting, and in particular mobile/online access to betting, has led to significant increases in problematic debt activity and a worsening of consumer financial health.
[TS] I’ve covered this before, but it’s good to have tangible data.