Trumpdate (7.30.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Venezuela Election Controversy: Maduro declares himself winner despite polls showing him losing election. Protests ensue.
Israeli Detention Center Abuse: Israeli sources confirm reports of Palestinian mistreatment at Sde Taiman.
NOT NEWS NEWS
China's Iron Ore Mystery: Unexplained surge in iron ore supply-use discrepancy raises concerns.
GDP by Political Affiliation: Economic contribution compared at county level for 2018 and 2020.
US Healthcare Spending Disparity: 1% of population accounts for 24% of health spending.
California Housing Shortage: Los Angeles lags behind other cities in high-rise construction.
US Economic Resilience: Current economy surpasses pre-pandemic projections.
Pentagon Accounting Error: Additional $2 billion miscalculation found in Ukraine aid valuation.
1.) Venezuela Election
A brief background:
• Election Context: President Nicolás Maduro ran for a third term in a heavily controlled political environment.
• Opposition Challenges: Main opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia faced obstacles, including disqualification of leading opposition figures.
• Poll Predictions: Polls indicated González’s potential win.
Yesterday:
Venezuela’s government-controlled election authority declared the nation’s authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, the winner of the presidential election.
Officials at some voting centers refused to release paper tallies of the electronic vote count, and there were reports of fraud and voter intimidation.
An opposition leader called the results impossible and Antony Blinken said the U.S. had serious concerns.
There are now ongoing protests.
[TS] So, Maduro declared himself the winner, claimed fraud, then urged his supporters on to violence. This sounds familiar….
Also, AP embarrassingly ran this headline:
Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro is declared the winner in the presidential election amid opposition claims of irregularities.
Is this Sputnik?
2.) [TS] Israeli sources are now confirming the horrific CNN and New York Times reports of the conditions in Sde Taiman.
For reference on what the original story was:
CNN: Strapped down, blindfolded, held in diapers: Israeli whistleblowers detail abuse of Palestinians in shadowy detention center.
[TS] Sources in the Israeli justice department are saying the evidence is so clear and the cases so severe, it will be an open and shut case for international courts.
The story was brutal. A permanent stain on the state of Israel.
QUICK BITES:
Trump tells Fox, “The answer is yes, I'll probably end up debating.”
Kamala seems to shed her 2019 primary views:
Won’t ban fracking
Doesn’t endorse Medicare for All
Wants increased funding for the border
Does not want to require people to sell their assault rifles back to the federal govt.
[TS] Sounds like she’s in it to win it. This is sound, electorally.
Reports about some R’s souring on JD Vance pick for VP
Update on some arrests from the Palestinian protest:
From a DC law enforcement source: The charges against four people, including a 15-year-old, who were arrested for assaulting police officers during yesterday's riot were dropped. [TS] Not a good signal.
[UPDATE] New: U.S. Park Police explain why few arrests were made outside of Union Station yesterday, they only had 29 officers for crowd control and they did everything they could. "We simply did not have the staffing or resources to accomplish a mass arrest operation."
CRFB: It would require $10 trillion of deficit reduction to stabilize debt-to-GDP.
Inspector general finds that AG Barr authorized release of "selective details" about a PA vote fraud probe in 2020 that supported Turmp's narratives even though DOJ had evidence that undercut it.
He also shared nonpublic info about probe with Trump. [TS] Really not a good look for Barr. Also recall: Barr presented a biased summary of the Mueller Report to make it sound like Trump had nothing to do with Russia when, in fact, the report made clear he had plenty to do with Russia.
KFF Health: A twice-yearly injection could help prevent HIV infections, according to the results of a new study described by medical experts as a breakthrough.
GDP grew at a annualized rate of 2.8% in Q2, coming in higher than expected.
2024 is currently tracking to have the lowest murder rate since 2014.
Biden proposed (3) changes to the Supreme Court. [TS] These will go nowhere since R’s control House:
18-year term limit for justices (a President would appoint new justice every 2 years).
A binding ethics code
A constitutional amendment to limit the court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity
12 children killed in rocket strike in Israel near Lebanon border. Netanyahu said “Our response is coming, and it will be severe.”
3.) Continued evidence for China’s potential invasion/war on Taiwan:
Per DryBulkETF:
Something odd is happening in China's iron ore market: In the last 12 months, inventory levels are up marginally (~15mt), yet the difference between iron ore supplied and iron ore used is up a staggering 158mt.
For context, the ~140mt of "missing" iron ore represents the industry size of all EU and Middle East combined!
Where is all this iron ore?
[TS] So, now we’ve got China:
stockpiling copper
stockpiling iron
stockpiling food
stockpiling energy
4.) Economic Contribution: County-Level GDP by Political Affiliation (2018 vs. 2020)
5). Health Spending by Percentile:
1% of people are responsible for 24% of the health spending in America and 5% of people are responsible for just over half:
6.) California is still allergic to building housing.
There are currently only nine high-rises under construction in Los Angeles.
In Austin, 23.
In Atlanta, 51.
[TS] Some context from a large Canadian city: Vancouver has more highrises under construction than any non-NYC US metro area despite having a population smaller than San Antonio.
Per Joseph Politano:
Toronto builds at the pace of like Houston except it's all giant towers instead of suburban subdivisions
7.) US economy is larger today than what was projected even before the pandemic began.
That's something that never happened after the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
8.) REUTERS: Pentagon finds another $2 billion of accounting errors for Ukraine aid
The Pentagon discovered an additional $2 billion in errors when calculating the value of military aid sent to Ukraine, bringing the total miscalculation to $8.2 billion. This error stems from using "replacement value" instead of "depreciated value" for equipment.
[TS] Eesh. Some accountant is going to get fired…