Trumpdate (7.25.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
China's Secret Stockpiles: Xi Jinping builds vast reserves of commodities, raising concerns about potential conflicts.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Netanyahu's Congressional Address: Israeli PM delivers controversial speech to US Congress, drawing criticism.
Climate Activists Jailed: UK sentences Just Stop Oil protesters to years in prison for highway blockades.
Housing Crisis in Blue States: Cities in Democratic-leaning states struggle with housing construction, leading to population shifts.
US Wage Advantage: American wages significantly higher than other rich countries, according to economic report.
Immigration's Economic Impact: CBO projects recent immigration surge to reduce deficit by $897 billion over 10 years.
🚨 [TS] Are there any specific topics you would like to see covered? Leave a comment if so.
1.) THE ECONOMIST: Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles?
Vast new holdings of grain, natural gas and oil suggest trouble ahead
China is aggressively stockpiling commodities despite economic challenges, driven by fears of geopolitical threats and potential supply disruptions. This includes record imports of raw materials, expanded storage capacity for oil, gas, and metals, and increased reserves of agricultural products. The stockpiling trend has accelerated since 2018, prompted by trade tensions, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war. While some view this as preparation for potential conflict, it appears to be primarily a defensive measure against future supply chain disruptions or embargoes.
Notable:
“This stockpiling is worrying Americans, and not just because it could fuel inflation by raising commodity prices. The supplies China is after are exactly those it would need to survive a protracted conflict, perhaps as it blockades Taiwan.”
[TS] Not encouraging. China seems to be preparing for a war.
QUICK BITES:
FBI Director Chris Wray testified about Trump assassination.
He testified that they aren’t yet certain whether what hit Trump was a bullet or shrapnel. He also said the FBI has collected all the projectiles. [TS] Seemed like a polite way of saying “It wasn’t a bullet,” but we’ll see.
House votes 416-0, setting up a bipartisan task force to probe Trump assassination attempt. It’s a very rare vote in the House with no dissent.
Trump says Americans who don’t support him are “very dangerous people” and commands his supporters to not be “nice” to them.
Going to be hard for Trump to keep claiming he has “No idea what Project 2025 is” when the architect of Project 2025, Kevin Roberts (Heritage Foundation President), has a new book coming out in September about taking over Washington. and his VP JD Vance wrote the foreword.
[UPDATE] Per Madeline Peltz: “Not only did JD Vance write the foreword to Project 2025 architect Kevin Roberts's book, but sale proceeds benefit the Heritage Foundation, per deal report.”
CBS: Migrant crossings continue to plunge, nearing the level that would lift Biden's border crackdown
Guardian: Trump nephew reveals Uncle Donald's racist outburst in new book
Fred C Trump III shares story of presidential nominee using N-word and
describes Trump's attitude on race
Biden addresses nation about him stepping down. [TS] Overall, it was pretty good. Had some powerful moments.
NYT: Government and religious leaders in New Zealand physically and sexually abused more than 200,000 people under their care, according to a six-year investigation.
2.) Netanyahu speaks to Congress.
[TS] A very Trumpian speech. Appealed to the GOP (which he’s been doing for decades(?) now). Surprised Schumer invited him. Nancy Pelosi panned the speech as:
“by far the worst presentation of any foreign dignitary invited and honored with the privilege of addressing the Congress of the United States.”
Also, hard to take anything he says about Palestinians seriously when you can find articles like this:
[RELATED]
Netanyahu brought Elon as a guest. Reporters met up with Elon to talk about the news. A bit of backstory by Teddy Schleifer:
WSJ reports that Elon “has said” he will give $45 million a month to the super PAC.
Trump and his people take it and run with it as a done deal.
Elon denies that he’s donating $45 million “to Trump” — which technically has a little wiggle room, since it’s to a super PAC. So maybe Elon is just being squirrelly.
Fortune exaggerates the Elon denial and casts it as Elon “backtracking,” as if the news was ever officially confirmed.
People screenshot the Fortune article and don’t realize that Elon never actually officially said this.
Reporters caught up to Elon in the hallway where he said:
At no point I said I was going to donate $45 million a month to Donald Trump. That was fiction.
[TS] A lot of people are running with this summary. Makes sense. Except this looks sort of odd in hindsight:
[RELATED 2]
Palestinian protestors ([TS] getting nearly impossible to just call them Palestinian/Gaza protestors and not Hamas sympathizers considering the flags they were carrying and the chants + the Hamas graffiti…) outside Union Station:
Removed and burned American flags
Replaced them with Palestine flags
Lit a fire with a Netanyahu effigy
Graffitied statues, sculptures etc.
[TS] Why aren’t these people arrested? It does not make sense to me. And secondly, if your goal is to gain support from America/Americans - do you really think burning their flag is a sound strategy?
Speaking of arresting people…
3.) CNN: Environmental activists sentenced to years in prison over UK highway protest
Five Just Stop Oil activists received prison sentences for organizing protests that blocked London's M25 highway in 2022. Co-founder Roger Hallam got 5 years, while four others received 4-year sentences each. The protests caused significant disruption and economic costs. The judge called the activists "fanatics," but environmental groups and scientists criticized the sentences as unjust and an attack on free speech. Critics argue the sentences are disproportionate for peaceful protest and demonstrate a misunderstanding of climate urgency. The case has sparked debate about protest rights and climate action.
4.) Cities in blue states are bad at building housing
With some exceptions, this basically explains why the south accounted for 87% of the U.S. population growth from 2022 to 2023. 1.42 million of the nationwide total 1.64 million population increase.
[TS] Boston, DC, NYC, the west coast, etc. are all desirable! They just don't build.
5.) [TS] I’ve covered this previously, but US wages are much higher than other rich countries (per EIG)
[TS] If you’re looking for another EIG report that is good, read this one from author Kyle Handley on “What Happened to US Manufacturing.” The entire series is good.
6.) CBO: Effects of the Immigration Surge on the Federal Budget and the Economy
New CBO report - increase in immigration (legal and illegal) would reduce the deficit by $897 billion over 10 years, mainly because immigrants pay taxes and spur economic growth.
Key Points:
The surge is projected to increase the population by 8.7 million from 2021-2026.
It's estimated to reduce federal deficits by $897 billion over 2024-2034, increasing revenues more than spending.
It's projected to boost GDP by $8.9 trillion over 2024-2034.
Effects on wages, interest rates, and inflation are expected to be small.
Estimates are uncertain due to many unknown factors about the surge population.