Trumpdate (7.24.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NEWS NEWS
Harris Campaign Challenges: Ad highlights Kamala Harris's liberal California background, potentially problematic for swing-state voters.
Menendez Resignation: Sen. Bob Menendez to resign Senate seat on Aug. 20, timing linked to pay schedule.
GOP Impeachment Push: House Republicans introduce bills calling for VP Harris's impeachment.
Iowa Abortion Restriction: Des Moines judge orders six-week abortion ban to take effect Monday.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Cash Benefits Study: JAMA study shows positive effects of cash benefits on healthcare utilization.
US Economic Recovery: Biden administration presided over strong job growth and economic recovery.
Meltdown-Proof Reactor: China demonstrates commercial-scale passive cooling in thorium molten salt reactor.
1.) [TS] Wanted to start off with what voters will be seeing run against Kamala for the next 100 days.
Here’s an ad by Dave McCormick:
It’s pretty damning. This is not what you want to see as a midwestern swing state voter. A “California liberal” is not your ideal candidate. She is, after all, the first ever Democratic Party presidential nominee from California (kinda wild, right? Nixon/Reagan both R’s).
It’s going to be incredibly difficult for her to shake off some of these charges. Yes, a lot of this footage was from the ’20 primary where both parties are either more liberal or more conservative before they go to the general election. But is that going to matter to swing-state voters? Probably not. In my opinion, she should throw Biden under the bus. Say he was too slow to act on the border, say he should have done more. Nominating a “moderate” VP will only go so far.
Granted, Kamala was never the ideal candidate vs Trump. Remember: a year ago, plenty were asking whether Biden should replace Harris on the ticket to boost his own chances. (Notably, Raskin/Pelosi who seemed to dance around direct questions last year about if Harris was Biden’s best choice for VP). People might have memory holed it, but it really does underscore the sense of whiplash.
Harris clearly improves Dems’ odds but still starts out as the significant underdog vs. Trump.
2.) Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) will resign his Senate seat, effective Aug. 20.
[TS] You might be scratching your head as to why Aug 20th? What’s the significance? Well, per K Tully-McManus (Politico):
Unlike House members who get paid on the last business day of the month, Senators are paid on the same schedule as Senate staff: the 5th & 20th of each month.
So, he’s going to keep getting a check even after the conviction and with US Senate going into recess, there’s probably not enough time to expel him. Classic grifter Menendez…
3.) House Republicans introduce bills calling for the impeachment of VP Harris.
[TS] There are now a half dozen House Republican bills calling for "impeachment" of VP Harris or "condemning" VP Harris or "calling on" VP Harris to convene Cabinet to invoke 25th amendment. These will, of course, go nowhere.
4.) AP: Des Moines, Iowa law barring most abortions after six weeks will take effect Monday, judge orders.
[TS] When Trump & JD Vance say states can make their own laws now, these are the kinds of laws they're talking about.
QUICK BITES
FORTUNE: Elon Musk backs down from $45 million a month pledge to Trump, says he doesn’t ‘subscribe to cult of personality’
[TS] So, looks like Trump got suckered by Elon, eh? Promised him a boatload of cash for Vance nom and then pulled the rug out from under him. Really strange move here by Elon. His car company (TSLA) appealed primarily to liberals, and then he soured that relationship by becoming deranged on Twitter. Maybe after Tesla’s bad earnings report he realizes MAGA doesn’t buy EVs (and Trump promised to kill any incentive for green tech). Just speculating.
POLITICO: House GOP leaders/ Speaker Mike Johnson urge members: Stop making race comments about Harris
[RELATED] WaPo: Far-right attacks target JD Vance’s wife Usha’s Indian heritage.
NYT: Secret Service Director Resigns After Trump Assassination Attempt
After doing time in prison, Pete Navarro (Trump’s trade guy) now agrees with Democrats on prison reform:
“There’s pushback from some on the hard Right - ‘we can’t be soft on crime.’ But if you keep people in jail too long, you actually increase the risk of crime when they get out.”
The Biden administration's ban on noncompete clauses has been upheld in court. A Pennsylvania judge denied an injunction seeking to block the rule.
As of now, virtually all noncompete agreements with bosses will be banned and voided beginning September 4.
Some Republicans are expressing concerns/reservations around JD Vance.
[RELATED] Pundits on Vladimir Solovyov's show are expressing serious reservations about J.D. Vance. They take issue with his flip-flopping, his beard, his wife, and his inability to attract more voters to Trump. They came close to suggesting Trump should dump him.
[RELATED 2] JD Vance is making history as the least liked VP nominee (non-incumbent) since 1980 following his/her party's convention. He's the first to have a net negative favorable rating (-6).
Trump’s recent comment on Kim Jong-un: "It's nice to get along with somebody that has a lot of nuclear weapons or otherwise...When we get back, I get along with him. He'd like to see me back too. I think he misses me."
[TS] Obviously absurd. NK used him for photo op and continued on. That entire saga was embarrassing for the US. Also, NK already dismissed Trump’s claim of friendship with Kim Jong-un.
5.) JAMA Journals: Effect of Cash Benefits on Health Care Utilization and Health (A Randomized Study)
[TS] I covered a disappointing UBI study yesterday, and this one is hot off the presses, so I might as well cover it too.
This study asks: Among low-income individuals, how does a cash benefit affect use of the emergency department and outpatient care?
The results were fairly encouraging:
[TS] So, not all doom and gloom in the UBI space.
6.) Biden’s administration presided over the best economic recovery in the world.
Per IMF:
There are 6.5 million more jobs today than there were before the pandemic. Job growth far exceeded previous economic recoveries:
[TS] Now it’s up to Harris to make this case to the voters but distance herself from Biden’s failures (ie border).
7.) New Scientist: Chinese nuclear reactor is completely meltdown-proof
China has demonstrated the first commercial-scale passive cooling of a high temperature nuclear reactor with a pebble bed module. It’s a new type of nuclear reactor, known as a thorium molten salt reactor (TMSR).
The TMSR uses thorium as fuel instead of uranium, which is more abundant and produces less radioactive waste. The fuel is dissolved in a molten salt coolant, which can operate at atmospheric pressure and high temperatures, improving the reactor's efficiency. The coolant also acts as a safety mechanism, as it can drain into a passive heat exchanger in the event of a malfunction, preventing a meltdown.
They intentionally turned off the cooling and the reactor cooled itself down.
[TS] I wanted to address waste briefly. First, Anti-nuclear activists wanted the Carter admin to ban reprocessing spent fuel (ie "nuclear waste”). Why? Because they understood that nuclear waste would be a good way to make nuclear scary.
Feel free to read more about it an a NYT OpEd: Nuclear Waste Is Misunderstood.
I also want to talk about the scale. How much spent nuclear fuel is there really? What does 20 years of spent nuclear fuel really amount to? Well, take a look for yourself.
This is what 20 years worth of spent nuclear fuel looks like safely stored at the former Maine Yankee nuclear plant:
How could there be so little? It might help to unpack the fuel density of certain things (I’ll list them as megajoules per kilogram in practical values):
Litium-ion batteries: 0.36-0.875 MJ/kg
Coal: 24 MJ/kg
Gasoline: 46 MJ/kg
Uranium: 3,900,000 MJ/kg
[TS] Also explains why electric cars are so heavy!