Trumpdate (7.23.24):

Political Guyentist

Jul 23, 2024

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

Hamas Intelligence Exposed: IDF uncovers trove of Hamas secrets, revealing global operations and terror tactics.
RFK Jr.'s Trump Overture: Independent candidate floated potential White House job before considering Trump endorsement.
WSJ Reporter Sentenced: Evan Gershkovich gets 16 years in Russian prison for alleged espionage.
VP Vetting Process: Harris campaign requests materials from potential vice presidential candidates.

NOT NEWS NEWS

UBI Study Results: Comprehensive study shows limited positive impacts of unconditional cash transfers.
Democratic Fundraising Surge: Sunday marks biggest day for online donations to Democrats in years.
Harris Endorsements: Kamala Harris receives overwhelming support from Democratic officials.
Harris vs. Biden Polling: Early comparisons show minor differences in support among various demographic groups.
Aging American Politicians: Economist reports U.S. politicians are oldest among rich nations.
Fentanyl Trafficking Reality: Most fentanyl traffickers are U.S. citizens, not undocumented immigrants.

1.) Jerusalem Post: 'Dismantling Hamas from within': IDF uncovers trove of Hamas secrets.

IDF and Shin Bet uncover extensive Hamas intelligence, revealing lists of suspected LGBTQ+ individuals, brutal tactics, global operations, and systematic terror tactics.

The IDF and Shin Bet uncovered extensive Hamas intelligence, revealing the organization's transformation into a professional army. Findings include operational documents, equipment lists, and plans for attacks. Hamas enforced strict rules, including harsh treatment of LGBTQ individuals. The group had detailed plans for global operations and undermining the Palestinian Authority. Evidence of systematic antisemitism in education was found. The intelligence gathered provides insights into Hamas's structure, tactics, and propaganda efforts, including documentation of their October 7 attack on Israel.

2.) WaPo: RFK Jr. floated a job in a Trump White House as he weighed endorsing Trump

The independent candidate suggested being given a senior job overseeing a portfolio of health and medical issues, an idea that the Trump campaign rejected.

3.) WSJ’s reporter Evan Gershkovich gets 16 years in Russia.

A court in Yekaterinburg has convicted Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich of espionage and sentenced him to 16 years in a high security penal colony. The trial has been dismissed as a ‘sham’ by US officials & the WSJ.

[TS] Despicable.

4.) Harris’ campaign is requesting vetting materials from potential VPs.

Per Ken Thomas (WSJ) on VPs included:

Cooper (NC), Kelly (AZ), Shapiro (PA), Whitmer (MI), Walz (MN) + Pritzker (IL), according to a person familiar. Beshear told CNN he hasn't been asked to submit info at this point.

[TS] Might be 0-2 for this guy!

QUICK BITES:

Former VP Pence puts out a statement praising Biden for stepping down: “President Joe Biden made the right decision for our country and I thank him for putting the interests of our Nation ahead of his own.”
Ohio state Sen. George Lang at JD Vance’s rally: “I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country.” [TS] Dangerous rhetoric.
Director of US Secret Service Kimberly Cheatle had a hearing today in Congress.
1. She says she takes “full responsibility for any security lapse."
  1. [TS] This was a shitshow. Cheatle deserves to be the focus of a thorough congressional questioning, but R’s went for daytime TV clips and conspiracy rabbit holes instead.
Rep. Tim Burchett, a conservative Republican from Tennessee, attacks VP Kamala Harris as a "DEI hire.” [TS] This will get traction online, but this is actually less incendiary than it sounds. Biden literally said he is only going to appoint a black woman as VP. That is — quite literally — a diversity specific hire. Personally, I think signaling that he will only hire a black woman cheapens the hire. He should have selected her for VP without mentioning anything about race/gender. Then he could have said she was hired on the merits with a straight face. Not smart politically or otherwise to play identify-politics in this way.
Eric Trump on Maria Bartiromo suggests Democrats were behind Trump's assassination attempt:
1. "I've said that the Democrats would stop at absolutely nothing .. and I've said on this show before I wouldn't be surprised if they tried something even worse, alluding to exactly what happened just over a week ago. And I was right."
GridStatus: Texas now has more solar generation capacity than California.

5.) [TS] Disheartening results from the most comprehensive UBI study ever done.

Paper name and location:

The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States:

What did they study?

This study examined the effects of a 3-year unconditional cash transfer program providing $1,000 monthly to 1,000 low-income individuals across two U.S. states. Using surveys, administrative data, and a mobile app, researchers analyzed impacts on employment, income, time use, job quality, entrepreneurship, and human capital.

[TS] High level, here is the gist: No real improvements:

People who received the money:
- Worked less (marginally - 1.3/1.4hrs per week)
- Earned less ($1,500 / individual compared to control excluding RCT cash)
- Used extra time for leisure activities
  - But did not improve mental or physical health (or stress) as rates returned in yr 2
- No improvements in job quality
- No increase in business startups (little improvement to entrepreneurial activities)
- Younger participants (<30) showed some increase in likelihood of enrolling in post-secondary education.

[TS] There is a ton of information in the study. If you’re looking for more detail, here is a thread with one of paper’s author (Eva Vivalt) and here is another (Sarah Miller) discussing the findings. I would highly recommend reading Eva’s to get an idea of the findings at a more digestible level.

[TS] It was a very robust study:

Study Strengths:

Large sample size (3,000 participants - 1k given $1k, 2k given $50) and long duration (3 years)
- Blood draws to measure health(!)
They got Illinois to pass a law that this RCT income wasn't taxable & didn't change other-benefit eligibility. That is, it was a net post-tax increase in income
Randomized controlled trial design allows for causal inference.
Comprehensive data collection, including surveys, administrative data, and a custom mobile app.
Very low attrition rates (96-97% response rates for main surveys).
Pre-registered analyses and multiple hypothesis testing corrections increase reliability.
Comparison with expert forecasts provides context for the novelty of findings.

Limitations:

Study limited to two geographic areas in the U.S., potentially limiting generalizability.
Potential Hawthorne effect due to participants' awareness of being in a study.
Some outcomes rely on self-reported data, which can be subject to bias.
Long-term effects beyond the 3-year study period are not captured.

[TS] My views on how valuable UBI is compared to, say, expanded EITC and spending on early childhood has gone way down.

6.) Sunday was the biggest day for online donations to Democrats in years.

ActBlue shows Vice President Kamala Harris’ first day as the presumptive Democratic nominee for President was the largest day of grassroots fundraising in Democratic Party history.

[UPDATE]

Almost $100M raised.

7.) Kamala Endorsements

Kamala Harris now endorsed by:

100% of Democratic Governors
87% of Senators
84% of Representatives

[TS] That was quick. Like I said previously, dems will likely do an open convention, but the momentum here is unstoppable. Unless polling shows her COMPLETELY underwater this ship ain’t stoppin’.

[RELATED]

WaPo is tracking how many Democratic delegates are backing Kamala Harris:

[TS] UPDATE: Kamala Harris has officially secured the required delegates to become the Democratic nominee for President.

8.) How does Kamala do vs Biden?

[TS] Still incredibly early, but here’s the polling among groups:

Harris does slightly better than Biden among:

Black (+1.6)
Liberal (+1.2)
White college grads (+1)
Age 18-34 (+1)

Harris does slightly worse than Biden among:

Men (-2.2)
Age 65+ (-1.9)
Urban (-1.6)
Indies (-1.2)
Hispanic (-1.1)
White (-1)
Conservative (-1)
Dems (-1)

[TS] Very minor differences, I wouldn’t read too much into them. Pre-dropout, Biden and Harris were polling fairly similar to one another. We’ll see how everything shifts now that Biden has dropped out.