BIDEN DROPS OUT OF THE RACE
[TS] What else is there to say? First, let me acknowledge that my prediction was wrong. After the first week-ish after the debate I did not suspect Biden would drop out.
I think it’s rather remarkable that a sitting President chose to drop out of the race. I consider this a heroic decision. Biden put his country over his own ego. These acts by Dems continue to shine a spotlight on the asymmetry between the two parties — one a political party and the other a cult of personality.
If you’re wondering if the decision was the correct one:
No one seems more upset than the Republicans (who are now calling for Biden to resign…). They also seem to believe this is an affront on democracy. I’ve even seen the word “coup” flying around. A note on the GOP’s democracy barometer:
Sending a mob to storm the Capitol to overturn a general election = democracy.
Winner of primaries declining his party’s nomination before the convention = not democracy
It’s not all sunshine and rainbows for the dems. Biden endorses Kamala Harris (and others in his party followed closely behind him). The DNC might do an “open” primary to allow others to run, but it seems almost inevitable that Kamala will be the presumptive nominee.
I imagine she will be able to inherit:
Biden’s war chest (which has been surpassed by Trump groups recently):
And also the campaign “machine” already built for Biden including:
Offices, volunteers, staff etc.
That certainly is not anything to sniff at, but Dems have a steep hill to climb. During 2020 Kamala was not a very savvy politician (ending her campaign in Dec ’19 before the 1st caucus in Iowa Feb’20).
Keep in mind, Joe Biden barely won 2020. A refresher on how close Biden came to losing:
Arizona: Biden won by 10,457 votes
Georgia: Biden won by 11,779 votes
Wisconsin: Biden won by 20,682 votes
These three states, with a combined margin of 42,918 votes, provided Biden with 37 electoral votes. If Trump had won these states, the Electoral College would have been tied 269-269.
Including the next closest state:
Nevada: Biden won by 33,596 votes
Does Kamala really carry any weight in the Midwest? A CA prosecutor seen as kowtowing to the progressive wing of the party? Tough to say. I guess we’ll see how honest the voters were who said they were disheartened/upset by “two old guys running.”
Either way, it’s likely that Kamala will select a midwest Gov as her VP to help her in those states. I’m assuming they’re eyeing:
Andy Beshear (KY Gov.)
Josh Shapiro (PA Gov.)
Tim Walz (MN Gov.)
I know we’ve heard a lot about Gretchen Whitmer (MI Gov) but I just don’t see it. Cory Booker (NJ Sen.) or Raphael Warnock (GA Sen.) I don’t see either. I guess we’ll see if I can go 0-2 in my predictions! [EDIT 7.22.24 - seems Kelly (AZ Sen.) also getting traction. Who knows! My money is on Andy/Josh.]
Here’s a dark horse VP: Bernie Sanders. Why? Well, most of the above Gov/Senators are all fairly ambitious. They may want to keep their political powder dry for 2028 for selfish reasons. He:
has name recognition nationwide
has clout in the progressive wing
will not run again
has an appeal to white working class voters (could pull some traditional GOP/independent voters to the left).
But! (and it’s a big but) he can EASILY be labeled as a socialist (says so himself), and he’s old (82). So, I put this at around…0.1%. Likely a dumb move. But interesting to think about!
Trump also becomes the only person to ever run against a Presidential candidate they previously donated to--and he does it twice over!
[RELATED]
To give a sense how much Biden's decision took his campaign by surprise …
Campaign staff were still calling delegates 30 minutes before his announcement, pushing them to declare their support for Biden in the rollcall & on social media, according to one delegate.
[UPDATE]
State Democratic parties are pledging all of their state delegates to VP Harris:
North Corlina
South Carolina
Tennessee
New Hampshire
[UPDATE 2]
$52.3 million haul for Harris through ActBlue. [TS] Yowzers. That’s pretty good.