EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Biden Replacement Rumors: Reports swirling about Biden potentially stepping aside soon, with Harris as possible replacement.
GOP Abortion Stance: J.D. Vance supported using Comstock Act to criminalize "mail-order abortions", countering claims of GOP softening on abortion.
Student Debt Relief Blocked: Federal appeals court blocks remainder of Biden's SAVE student debt relief plan.
IRA Investment Results: 121 new projects, $94.2B in planned investments, 60,597 new jobs since August 2022.
Russia's Weaponry Shortage: Soviet-era stocks running low, questioning Russia's ability to sustain war in Ukraine.
Nevada GOP Fraud Accusation: Las Vegas city councillor allegedly stole donations meant for fallen police officer statue.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Tariff Analysis: Detailed examination of Trump's proposed tariffs and their potential economic impact.
ICE Deportation Facts: Tom Homan's claim about record deportations under Trump proven false with historical data.
Biden vs Trump Economies: Comparison of economic benefits under both administrations, highlighting job growth and inflation.
Migrant Encounter Trends: June 2024 saw 130,000 migrant encounters, lowest since February 2021.
1.) [TS] What’s above “heating up?” for Biden being replaced?
Granted, nothing is confirmed, but lordy are reports swirling about Biden potentially stepping aside soon (3-5 days).
Right now the conventional wisdom is Harris as the replacement and then add some upper Midwest governor (Shapiro, Whitmer).
I don't think there's much evidence for Harris being a safe bet to defeat Trump, but there's enough evidence that she has more upside than Biden does.
Switching nominees now is like jumping out of a moving car — it's dumb unless you're careening towards a cliff.
The poll-driven argument for Biden to drop is mostly a red herring. They were not good before the debate, and they're not good now; but that's been the case for the past ~9 months. The difference is Dems' faith in Biden's capacity to run through the tape.
And what you're left with is this uncanny valley where everything is bad but not dispositive, and the underdog dynamics mostly reinforce Biden's own self-mythology.
2.) MOTHER JONES: J.D. Vance Supported Using the Comstock Act to Criminalize “Mail-Order Abortions”
Yet more evidence that the GOP is far from “softening” its anti-abortion stance.
Democrats fear the Comstock Act could restrict abortion rights under a GOP administration and have proposed legislation to repeal parts of it. Critics argue the GOP, if in power, won’t protect abortion rights.
[RELATED-ish]
N.C. GOP candidate for governor Mark Robinson appears to have removed references to abortion from his website.
[TS] It seems to me that Republican candidates across the land racing to hide their longstanding desire to ban abortion seems like the kind of thing the news media should pay more attention to.
3.) AP: Federal appeals court blocks remainder of Biden’s student debt relief plan SAVE
[TS] As an FYI, Biden had several initiatives under broader debt relief efforts - this relates only to the SAVE plan.
Short summary:
A federal appeals court blocked the Biden administration’s student debt relief plan, halting parts of the SAVE plan not already blocked by lower courts. The 8th Circuit Court’s order came as the Biden administration announced $1.2 billion in loan forgiveness for 35,000 public service workers. The Education Department vowed to defend the plan, which aids over 8 million borrowers, against efforts by Republican-led states to invalidate it.
Greater detail:
The 8th Circuit Court of Appeals blocked the implementation of the Biden administration's student debt relief plan (SAVE plan).
This ruling was in response to a motion filed by Republican-led states challenging the program.
On the same day, the administration announced $1.2 billion in loan forgiveness for about 35,000 borrowers under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program.
The PSLF program, established in 2007, has faced challenges in implementation, but the Biden administration made adjustments to help more borrowers qualify.
Previous legal challenges in June resulted in federal judges in Kansas and Missouri blocking parts of the SAVE plan, including faster loan cancellation and reduced monthly payments.
The current ruling further restricts the administration's ability to implement parts of the SAVE plan that weren't already blocked.
4.) Inflation Reduction Act - Investment Results
Jay Turner and his students at Wellesley are tracking investments in the US electric vehicle supply chain. Here’s the tally since 8/16/22:
121 new projects
$94.2B in planned investments
60,597 new jobs
The biggest announcement was $1.7 billion in federal grants to 11 facilities to support converting at-risk manufacturing facilities to EV production.
The Inflation Reduction Act continues to draw investment from abroad to the United States, led by companies based in South Korea and Japan.
These projects are creating opportunities for workers. Of the 60,597 new jobs, 41,014 are in the battery industry and 14,174 are in EV manufacturing.
[TS] Important highlight
The large majority of these investments are going to congressional districts represented by Republicans.
Post-IRA projects are concentrated in the South’s emerging battery belt, led by investments in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. Investments in mid-Western states, including Michigan, Indiana, and Illinois are sizable.
[TS] If you want more info, check out their dashboard.
5.) ECONOMIST: Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out
Russia's offensive in Ukraine is faltering, shifting focus to Russia's ability to sustain the war. Despite maintaining troop numbers and increasing missile production, Russia struggles to replace equipment losses. It's relying on refurbished Soviet-era stock, which is finite. Despite allocating 8% of GDP to military spending, Russia's capacity to continue high-intensity operations long-term is now in question.
6.) NYT: Nevada Conservative Accused of Fraud Over Fund-Raising for Charity
Las Vegas city councillor and prominent Nevada GOPer Michele Fiore (a colorful figure in the state’s politics) allegedly set up a charity to build a statue to a fallen police officer -- then stole the donations and used them for personal expenses, prosecutors said.
QUICK BITES:
HoF Lawrence Taylor, who was on stage recently with Trump in New Jersey, has been arrested in Florida on a felony warrant for failing to report his residence change as a registered sex offender.
Hunter Biden is trying to dump his conviction on gun charges. He's citing Judge Cannon's controversial dismissal of Trump's classified documents case to do it.
[TS] Multiple republicans (Eric Trump, JD Vance, Rep. Corey Mills (R-FL) etc.) when commenting on the assassination attempt on Trump have consistently said “they tried to kill him.” Who is “they?” This is vile.
McCarthy says that Matt Gaetz came to him and told him to kill the House Ethics Committee investigation or he would move to vacate him as Speaker. [TS] Whoa.
Appeal of Judge Cannon's dismissal in USA v. Trump filed at 11th Circuit, Docket No. 24-12311.
JD Vance’s older ad gets a fact check. In the ad, Vance blames undocumented immigrants for his mother’s addiction problem when she actually stole prescribed medication from her patients as a nurse.
Drug overdose deaths are now falling on average nationally.
The media’s pieces on Trump’s “New Tone” did not age well as Trump descends into his normal screed during his speech at the RNC. [TS] Dems might be thinking the speech was bad enough to keep Biden in the race.
Trump now not likely to attend funeral Friday for Corey Comperatore. Earlier sources had indicated he would.
[RELATED] They spelled his name wrong on a fire jacket they used at the RNC.
Tucker gives speech at RNC. [TS] Not so long ago Tucker Carlson sent private texts saying of Trump, "I hate him passionately."
Notably absent: Melania Trump who spoke in 2016 and 2020. Reportedly, she refused to speak last night. I guess they got Hulk Hogan to backfill…
7.) [TS] Let’s take a closer look at tariffs…
[TS] I know I know, everyone’s favorite topic. High level if you’ve missed a previous Trumpdate:
Trump introduced tariffs against China during his admin, Biden kept them and expanded them.
Trump is proposing broad tariffs on almost everything in his second admin.
These have obviously been covered by the media, and the general response from GOP has been “Trump's earlier tariffs didn't bring inflation, so these won’t either.”
Brian Riedl (Sr. Fellow Manhattan Institute) recently addressed a lot of these points:
1) "Trump's earlier tariffs didn't bring mass inflation, so these won't either"
Those were targeted tariffs on a small number of goods & nations - and those prices soared. Trump is now proposing a huge, universal tariff on ALL imports, including gas, food, and medicine, from ALL nations.
2) "We don't need trade, we can produce all we need"
For starters, America lacks the natural resources. Many rare-Earth metals and minerals required in manufacturing do not naturally exist in America (and much is found only in China). Nor do all fruits, vegetables, etc, grow in our climate and soil.
And even though America now produces a lot of oil, importing oil still keeps gas prices lower because of cross-country cost differentials. Also, different kinds oil are used for different products. See: Oil
3) "Tariffs do not raise prices"
The entire purpose of tariffs is to raise import prices so high that consumers purchase domestic alternatives instead. If tariffs did not raise prices, they would have no purpose.
4) "China will pay the tariff"
Tariffs - like all sales taxes - are paid by the buyer, not the seller. We are taxing ourselves, not China. Studies of tax incidence bear this out.
5) "Tariffs are needed to bring back manufacturing jobs"
Manufacturing employment declines are driven mainly by long-term improvements in automation & productivity - not by trade - and trade restrictions will not stop this. Moreover, once other countries retaliate with tariffs, we'll lose more jobs in export industries like agriculture and technology than we gain in manufacturing.
6) "Tariffs a cost-effective way to support manufacturing"
U.S. consumers and businesses are already paying up to $900,000 a year for every job saved or created by the earlier Trump tariffs. It would be cheaper to just write each laid off worker a check.
7) "American doesn't build anymore"
Manufacturing output far exceeds pre-NAFTA levels. But automation and productivity have meant that fewer workers are necessary to produce it. This productivity is the single key to rising living standards.
8) "I'll happily pay a little to save manufacturing"
Trump's latest tariff proposal of 10% global (60% China) would push up prices of gas, fruit, vegetables, medicine, discount goods, etc by $1,500 for the typical household. With low-earners hardest hit.
9) "Tariffs help stick it to big business"
Big business loves tariffs. By removing their competition, they can become near monopolies and raise their prices - fattening their profits at the expense of consumers.
10) "America was built on tariffs"
Way back before the income tax, the much smaller federal govt could be funded mainly by tariffs. But there was also no real global economy, and the U.S. had frequent recessions (and depressions). In the modern global economy, trade wars are economic suicide.
11) "Name one time tariffs really hurt the economy"
Ever hear of the Great Depression? The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was a major contributor.
12) "Tariffs will raise a lot of revenue"
Tariffs raise little revenue because - by design - people will drastically reduce the purchase of these taxed imports. And as we saw under Trump, that tariff revenue will just be spent bailing out the devastated export industries.
[RELATED]
American Progress Action put together a breakdown of the 10% increase which would equate to a $2,500 tax on households ([TS] for what it’s worth, I’ve seen the figure lower ~$1,500.)
8.) Tom Homan at the RNC said under Trump "deportations rose to the highest level ever.” [FALSE]
For reference, per Aaron Reichlin-Melnick put together a chart showing repatriations of individuals arrested by ICE inside the United States, broken out by fiscal year.
Trump's ICE never hit even half the level of the system at its peak in Bush's 2nd term and Obama's 1st term:
Migration Policy also has a breakout:
[TS] This is a bit like the discourse around record oil production under Biden, where, because the facts are a bit uncomfortable for both sides, no one wants to actually wrestle with them.
9.) Who benefitted the most in the Biden and Trump economies?
Heather Long and Aden Barton explored the topic:
Most of America experienced lower unemployment under Biden
Biden oversaw an incredible rebound from the pandemic with rapid — and widespread — gains including:
15.7 million jobs (6 million more than pre-pandemic)
A manufacturing surge
A start-up surge
Child poverty reduction
Lowest Black unemployment rate ever recorded
A historic reduction in inequality
Inflation really stung Americans
Wages for most workers barely kept up with inflation under Biden.
And home affordability is at the lowest level in 40 years
This is why more Americans trust Trump on the economy.
Trump inherited an economy that was in pretty good shape.
He fueled it further with a massive tax cut and more gov’t spending.
The tight labor market in 2018 and 2019 did help lift more people up.
His timing was also lucky
Then the pandemic struck and 23 million Americans lost jobs.
Overall, Biden deserves more credit for this strong economic rebound. But he and his team failed to really acknowledge the pain of higher prices (or show they were doing much about it in 2022 and 2023).
This is a key economic lesson going forward: Americans really hate inflation.
[RELATED]
Biden’s manufacturing boom by state:
10.) Migrant Encounter Trend by Decade:
There were 130,000 migrant encounters along the southern border in June. The lowest number since February 2021. Aside from post 2021 encounter surge, June is typically the month when encounters begin a steady decline.
When looking at data since 2000, June ranks #57 of 297 months for the number of encounters.