Trumpdate (7.18.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Biden Replacement: Top Dem leaders urge Biden to step aside.
Israel/Hamas War: IDF suspects Deif’s death; continues operations against Hamas, focusing on tunnels. Minimal civilian casualties reported. Morale and resource shortages in Hamas noted.
Jack Smith Appeal: Smith appeals Judge Cannon’s dismissal of Trump’s classified docs case.
Trump Media SPAC Fraud: Patrick Orlando, ex-CEO of the SPAC that took Trump Media public, charged with securities fraud over the deal.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Menendez Ouster: GOP Senators resist saying Menendez should resign amid their own nominee’s criminal issues.
Wage Growth: Low-wage workers saw real wage growth during the Dot-Com era and recent hot economy.
WSJ Reporter Fired: WSJ fires Hong Kong reporter Selina Cheng post-HKJA election, reflecting press freedom concerns.
GDP Growth: Q2 GDP growth tracking at 2.7%.
1.) Temp rises from Dem leaders to replace Biden.
Seems to ebb and flow, but now recent reporting confirms that Pelosi, Schiff, Jeffries and Schumer are on the same side urging Biden to step aside.
[TS] Still a lot of unknowns, and I don’t think there is any plan in place. Here was a good take from Liam Donovan the day after the debate. In short, if you don’t know the answer by now it’s probably just as well that you “ride with Biden.”
If Biden's thinking has shifted, I hesitate to credit any private pleading when what we are seeing out in the open is pretty unambiguous. Rough public appearances, an unforced error on the virtual roll call, and now covid, which just adds insult to injury.
[RELATED]
A comment from Biden’s recent interview with BET is re-circulating like it’s breaking news. The stories state: Biden says he will consider dropping out of the race if a 'medical condition' was diagnosed by doctors.
[TS] The context is critical because he was asked what it would take and this was said where “act of the almighty” had been deployed before. I think unless he says this unprompted it’s not a departure from his normal stance.
[UPDATE]
Per Katherine Gregg (Providence Journal):
In an informal vote TONIGHT, the RI delegates to the Democratic Convention reportedly gave a thumbs down to an effort to lock in the nomination ahead of the convention next month. (And RI Dem Chair Beretta Liz Perik freed the delegates to talk to media & report back the Qs.)
[TS] So it seems there is some resistance to adopt Biden as the nomination early.
[UPDATE 2]
WH releases statement on the reports about his meeting with Schumer:
"The President told both leaders he is the nominee of the party, he plans to win, and looks forward to working with both of them to pass his 100 days agenda to help working families."
2.) Israel / Hamas War Updates
Deif’s Possible Death:
The IDF suspects Muhammad Deif, Hamas’s military commander, was killed in a recent airstrike but awaits confirmation. Rafa’a Salameh, the Khan Younis Brigade commander, was confirmed killed. Minimal civilian casualties reported.
Ongoing Conflict:
IDF continues operations against Hamas, focusing on tunnel destruction and potential truce impacts. Hamas moves operations to civilian areas due to prolonged tunnel stays, facing morale issues and weapon shortages. Over 50 airstrikes targeted Hamas positions in schools, hospitals, and shelters.
Tunnel Operations:
Intensive efforts to locate and destroy Hamas tunnels along the Gaza-Egypt border, particularly in Rafah. Rafah Brigade largely dismantled, with many structures demolished to locate tunnels. The offensive’s intensive stage is ending, but targeted raids and tunnel searches continue.
Senior Commanders:
Several senior Hamas commanders remain; IDF targets key knowledge holders in engineering, chemistry, and electronics. Hamas’s capabilities significantly diminished, but it can still attack troops and launch rockets.
Endgame:
IDF aims to dismantle Hamas’s capabilities, ensuring long-term security and stability in the region. The conflict is expected to last many more months, with ongoing efforts to locate cross-border smuggling tunnels.
3.) Jack Smith has given the 11th Circuit formal notice of appealing Judge Cannon's dismissal of the classified documents case this week.
4.) Patrick Orlando, the former chief executive of the SPAC that took Trump Media public, has been charged with securities fraud over the deal.
[TS] This will probably not even register as a big story in the news. Strange times…
QUICK BITES:
NYT: FBI gained accessed shooter’s phone.
Agents could see that he had searched for images of Mr. Trump as well as President Biden, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland and even F.B.I. Director Christopher A. Wray. One of Mr. Trump’s planned appearances happened to be about 50 miles from Mr. Crooks’s house in Bethel Park, Pa.
FBI: No indication that the gunman had strong partisan political views; absence of “any political or ideological information” at his home was “notable” because most politically motivated would-be assassins leave a discernible trail of views.
[TS] So he was just looking for someone to shoot and Trump came to town.
Secondary cell phone was found at the home, it had only 27 contacts and the FBI is in the process of tracking down and interviewing those people.
Mr. Crooks also had at typed in “major depressive disorder” and searched for dates and places for appearances for both Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.
Paul Manafort (convicted and pardoned by Trump — who a bipartisan Senate committee labeled a “grave counter-intelligence threat”) and Peter Navarro (convicted) were at the GOP convention last night following their “law and order” night.
[TS] This really does read like a skit considering who the nom is:
Biden tests positive for COVID
Special Counsel David Weiss, who prosecuted Hunter Biden, refuses to turn over the forensic reports on the Hunter Biden laptop and hard drive. His response to the judge:
“…Accordingly, the expert disclosure is not a judicial record and is not a record before this Court that the Court could unseal.”
5.) [TS] GOP Senators are resisting calling for Menendez's ouster.
Clearly, they’re aware that they are currently about to nominate someone with his own criminal conviction. Again, this is coming after their “law and order” night at the GOP convention. Democrats roundly told him to resign, but now you have GOP leaders like
Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL): “It’s a decision he gets to make and, so, it’ll be a decision he gets to make.”
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC): “I’m gonna leave that to my colleagues on the Democratic side. I mean, the conviction is serious. The fact that I think it was all 16 charges, that’s very serious. But I’m staying out of that. That’s something the Democrats have already opined on—I think several have called for his resignation. I’ll let the Democrats solve their Democrat member problem, not me.”
6.) Budget Lab: America's low-wage workers have seen 2 great periods of real wage growth in the past 45 years.
Periods:
The Dot-Com era (1997 to 2007)
The hot economy era (2014 to 2024)
The key point --> Tight labor markets really lift up struggling Americans.
Chart from Ernie Tedeschi:
7.) WaPo: Wall Street Journal fires Hong Kong reporter who headed embattled press club.
A Hong Kong-based Wall Street Journal reporter, Selina Cheng, was terminated shortly after being elected chair of the Hong Kong Journalists Association (HKJA). Cheng suggests her termination is linked to her HKJA role, citing pressure from her employer to quit the association. The HKJA faces accusations from state-backed media of destabilizing Hong Kong. The Wall Street Journal, moving operations to Singapore due to political risks, confirmed personnel changes without specifics. This reflects broader concerns about press freedom under Hong Kong’s national security laws.
[TS] WSJ Editor before firing reporter:
“Employees should not be seen as advocating for press freedom in a place like Hong Kong, even though they can in western countries, where it is already established.”
8.) GDP growth tracking 2.7% in Q2.
