Trumpdate (7.17.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Sen. Bob Menendez Guilty: Senator Bob Menendez (D-NY) found guilty on all 16 bribery and corruption counts. Democratic leaders urge resignation.
RFK Jr. & Trump Call: Leaked call shows RFK Jr. agreeing with Trump that “We’re going to win,” raising questions about RFK Jr.’s intentions.
Trump Docs Case Dismissed: Federal Judge Eileen Cannon dismisses Trump’s classified documents case, ruling Jack Smith’s appointment unconstitutional. Smith to appeal.
Trump Picks Vance for VP: Trump selects Ohio Senator JD Vance as VP. Vance, a former Trump critic, now aligns with Trump’s agenda.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Biden Calls Rally Victim’s Widow: Biden contacts Corey Comparator’s widow after Trump rally assassination attempt; she declines. Trump hasn’t called.
Investing in Youth: Federal budget prioritizes elderly over children. Investing in youth health, education, and nutrition offers high returns and future savings. Spending on children projected to decline while elderly spending rises.
Federal Debt Forecast: CBO forecasts large interest payments, already surpassing Medicare and Defense spending.
1.) Senator Bob Menendez (D-NY) has been found guilty on all 16 counts for bribery and corruption.
Jurors deliberated for three days. Melendez was convicted on all 16 counts against him (up to 200yrs - very unlikely to get close to that).
Democratic leaders are calling on him to resign immediately. Senate Dem Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY):
"In light of this guilty verdict, Senator Menendez must now do what is right for his constituents, the Senate, and our country, and resign.”
2.) A video-taped phone call between RFK Jr. and Donald Trump leaked.
[TS] The main takeaway here is this exchange:
Donald Trump: "We're going to win."
RFK Jr: "Yeah."
[TS] Hard not to come away from this believing that RFK Jr is not trying to win considering he agrees that Trump will win and discusses a job with Trump.
3.) Federal Judge Eileen Cannon dismisses Trump's classified docs case.
Eileen Cannon writes in her dismissal that,
"Mr. Smith is a private citizen exercising the full power of a United States Attorney, and with very little oversight or supervision."
This is not accurate. Jack Smith is part of the Department of Justice and is subject to all the rules of the Department of Justice. That is explicit in the Special Counsel regulations.
[UPDATE] Jack Smith is going to appeal the dismissal.
[TS] It’s important to note why Judge Cannon is doing this now. It relates to SCOTUS’s ruling on Trump’s impunity. In Trump's immunity ruling, Justice Thomas all but invited Judge Cannon to find Jack Smith was unconstitutionally appointed as special counsel.
Cannon noticed. Her ruling doing so cites that concurrence at least three times.
4.) Trump picks Ohio Senator JD Vance as his VP.
Quick overview of who JD Vance is:
Born ’84 (40yo by Nov)
Marine
Gained prominence with his memoir “Hillbilly Elegy,” which details his upbringing in a working-class family and the challenges of Appalachian life.
Graduated Yale Law School and worked in venture capital
Elected to Ohio Senate in 2022.
[TS] Quite an impressive resume, and quite the age gap between him and Trump (38 years). The silicon valley folks like him (Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Bill Ackman, David Sacks - who did not deliver a good speech at the RNC, etc.).
Vance’s 180 on Trump
In 2016, Vance was a notable critic of then candidate Trump:
Identified himself as a “Never Trump guy.”
He suggested that he might have to “hold his nose and vote for Hillary Clinton.”
Said Trump was “Noxious” and “Reprehensible.”
Called Trump an “Idiot.”
In a 2016 conversation, Vance referred to Trump as a potential “America’s Hitler” due to his concerns about Trump’s demagogic appeal:
Has since deleted Tweets about immigration/Trump.
Including on his own website, which calls for “eliminating” all abortion, even for teenage survivors of rape and women who will otherwise die.
[TS] In short, a sellout. It is clear that Vance will do or say anything to gain more power in the right circles. It also might be wise of Vance to ask why the VP position is open in the first place…
[RELATED]
Lever News: J.D. Vance Wants Police To Track People Who Have Abortions
Trump’s vice presidential pick pressured regulators to let police access the records of people who cross state lines for abortions.
Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), Donald Trump’s pick for vice presidential nominee, pressured federal regulators last June to kill a privacy rule that prevents police from accessing the medical records of people seeking reproductive services, according to documents reviewed by The Lever. The rule was designed to prevent state and local police in anti-abortion states from using private records to hunt down and prosecute people who cross state lines in search of abortion services.
QUICK BITES:
Teamsters president Sean O’Brien spoke at the RNC (did not technically endorse Trump). Of note:
Every Democrat in Congress voted to prevent the pensions of more than 350,000 Teamsters from being cut by up to 65% by including the Butch Lewis Act in the American Rescue Plan.
Every Republican voted against it - smearing it as a big union bailout.
Rudy G. was at the Convention too (did not speak) but was very drunk. As in, falling over drunk (literally).
There was an individual who was shot and killed near the RNC in downtown Milwaukee.
DOW and S&P close at highest levels in recorded history yesterday.
[TS] Worth mentioning: If Trump wins (def the current favorite), he is going to inherit a strong economy with inflation tamed, unemployment low and with the Fed about to cut interest rates. Public won’t fault him for prices remaining high, as it didn’t happen under his watch. Public opinion on Econ will flip overnight.
[RELATED-ish] Sotomayor should retire immediately…
Trump promises to change and have a more “unifying” message after assassination attempt. It lasts until his first Truth Social post (less than 24hrs).
Politico: Pelosi privately fields battleground Dem calls as she works to address Biden crisis
In one call, Pelosi gave clear indication she wanted Biden off ticket
One Dem who spoke to her: “She’s the political voice of Dem caucus right now"
NYT: Biden is relying on Hunter Biden for advice and isn't discussing the state of the polling with his own pollsters. [TS] Great…
Trump’s plan to address high interest rates, per a new BusinessWeek interview:
Biden speaking at the NAACP Convention announces new plan to cap rent raises to 5% (except he forgot the number, paused for a while and had trouble reading the teleprompter. Eventually, he leaned down and squinted and slowly said “55 dollars”). [TS] This is not a good policy. His admin should drop it.
5.) WaPo: Biden Reaches Out to Widow of Victim in Trump Rally Assassination Attempt
In the aftermath of the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump at a rally last week, which resulted in the tragic death of Corey Comparator, President Joe Biden extended his condolences by calling Comparator’s widow. However, she declined to speak with him. Notably, Trump has not yet made contact with her.
[TS] I do feel like this would be treated as a major scandal if the situation was reversed.
6.) The Federal Govt. spends the plurality of its budget on seniors (and over 5:1 on >65 vs <18).
Per the Economic Strategy Group “The Economic Case for Smart Investing in America’s Youth.”
Key findings from the paper:
High ROI on Youth Investment: Investments in children’s health, education, and nutrition yield substantial returns, including increased tax revenues and reduced future government expenditures.
Projected Decline: Federal spending on children is projected to decrease over the coming years while spending on the elderly and interest payments on debt increases.
Effective Programs: Programs targeting low-income children are particularly effective, showing long-term benefits that justify the investment.
Need for Reallocation: There’s a strong case for reallocating federal budget priorities to focus more on children to ensure a healthier, more productive future population.
[RELATED]. Urban Institute finds similar findings on Senior vs Kid spending:
7.) CBO releases forecast for federal debt.
[TS] Main takeaway here is how big the interest payments are going to be (recall: They’re already bigger than Medicare and Defense spending):
