Trumpdate (7.1.24):
[TS] I’ll summarize Friday’s SCOTUS rulings tomorrow (re-overturning Chevron).
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Biden's Decision: Biden confirms he's staying in 2024 race
French Politics: Macron's party underperforms in first round of snap elections
SCOTUS: Court to rule on Trump's immunity claim
Abortion Law: Iowa Supreme Court allows near-total abortion ban
Economy: Positive inflation report suggests potential for Fed rate cuts
NOT NEWS NEWS
Federal Finance: U.S. federal revenue falls below historic average
Military Health: Study reveals brain damage pattern in Navy SEALs who died by suicide
1.) Biden is NOT stepping aside
[TS] No real surprise here. Politicians/politician adjacent are famously narcissistic, see Feinstein, RGB, McConnell etc.. Not to mention, it’s fairly late in the game. Not saying it’s impossible, but it would be difficult.
Given what’s at stake, I hope him/his family didn’t take the decision lightly.
2.) France Elections: Macron gets thumped in the first round of elections (~20%).
[CONTEXT]
French President Emmanuel Macron called for snap elections following a significant defeat in the European Parliament elections, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally outperformed his party. This move aims to address the political challenges and clarify France’s parliamentary future — and it seems to be backfiring to send voters to the polls right after EU elections.
3.) SCOTUS will rule on Trump’s Immunity case today
4.) Iowa: Iowa Supreme Court votes 4-3 allows state to enforce near-total ban on abortion.
[TS] The stakes in the election remain quite high.
5.) Good inflation report: Core PCE was up 0.08% and overall PCE actually fell 0.01%.
Core at an annual rate:
1 month: 1.0%
3 months: 2.7%
6 months: 3.2%
12 months: 2.6%
[TS] Looking possible that the Fed might have enough evidence/confidence to cut rates this year. The problem remains is the good inflation months are not nearly as good as the bad inflation months are bad.
QUICK BITES:
Iran threatened an “obliteration war” if Israel launches a full-scale attack on Lebanon.
Israeli officials tentatively agreed to legalize five Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.
Iran’s election drew record-low turnout, and no presidential candidate secured the votes needed to win outright. Two establishment candidates will go to a runoff on Friday.
Bannon goes to prison today for four-months for contempt of Congress.
6). Federal revenue is now below its historic average.
7.) NYT: Pattern of Brain Damage Is Pervasive in Navy SEALs Who Died by Suicide
A military lab tested the brains of Navy SEALs who died by suicide and discovered blast damage in every one. Navy leaders were kept in the dark, a Times investigation found.