Trumpdate (6.26.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Taiwan: Taiwan urged to reconsider nuclear shutdown plan to avoid LNG reliance.
Gaza Aid: Pier working, but aid not reaching Gazans due to safety concerns.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Gen Z Wages: Gen Z earns higher real median wages earlier than Boomers ever did.
Trump Docs: Article on Val Broeksmit found in Trump’s confidential documents.
SF Housing: Dean Preston accused of lying about housing achievements in lawsuit.
Renewables vs Fossil Fuels: Hydrocarbons grew faster than wind+solar in 2023.
Brexit: Majority of British public now believes Brexit was a mistake.
1.) NIKKEI ASIA: Taiwan's Lai needs to rethink nuclear shutdown plan
Taiwan is currently in the process of mothballing its nuclear reactors and making the country more reliant on sea-borne LNG which would be a bad move for any country but for a country that is literally surrounded by water - this is a terrible move.
2.) POLITICO: The pier is finally working — but aid is still not getting to Gazans
The pier unloaded 720 tons of aid on Sunday alone. However, aid groups have not been picking up supplies from the beach out of fear of being targeted by the IDF or Hamas, especially after the Nuseirat raid to rescue the four hostages used a vehicle resembling humanitarian aid delivery trucks. Some food supplies are about to spoil.
QUICK BITES
AP: Tesla’s Cybertruck faces a fourth recall (11k trucks impacted)
Caitlin Clark is bringing a ton of new fans to the WNBA, but all of the other teams are seeing a 40% increase in viewership, too. WNBA viewership season-to-date, all networks:
Caitlin Clark games - 1.184 mill
All other games - 428k
All games this time last year - 301k
Axios: 16 Nobel economists see a Trump inflation bomb
George Latimer wins Democratic House Primary in NY against Jamaal Bowman
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) says he supports IVF access despite voting ‘NO’ on Senate Bill.
3.) Median real wages for Gen Z today are so high that Boomers didn't earn this level of wages until they were in their early 40s.
Per Economic Innovation Group:
[TS] A lot of doom and gloom that goes around, but this is positive news. Now, to normalize this, you’d need to factor in the price of housing. If you look at median household income vs median sale price of houses:
So, you can paint the data a lot of different ways. There is no question that housing, healthcare and education are more expensive. But, most consumer goods now are also much less expensive (and with a lot more choices) — including groceries.
Home ownership % by year:
4.) [TS] Interesting-ish story about the Jack Smith filing (re-classified docs case). Could unfold into something, or be nothing at all.
Caught by Allison Gill:
I was looking through the exhibits in the latest Jack Smith filing, and what do I see among the new photos? The article about Val Broeksmit, the whistleblower who wielded his dead stepfather’s passwords to reveal Deutschebank’s dealings with Russia & Trump. He himself mysteriously died two years ago [about 3 months before the search of Mar-a-Lago]. Why would Trump save this?
[CONTEXT] Who is Val Broeksmit?
Val Broeksmit was a whistleblower and the son of a former Deutsche Bank executive. He came into the spotlight for providing documents to authorities and journalists, which detailed Deutsche Bank’s dealings, including those involving President Donald Trump. These documents were part of investigations into the bank’s lending practices, especially loans extended to Trump and his businesses, shedding light on financial connections and potential irregularities. Broeksmit’s disclosures contributed to broader investigations into Trump’s financial affairs.
[TS] Nothing more to it, more questions than answers — it’s just strange that that article was in a box of documents marked “confidential.” Like I said, probably nothing, so don’t go dusting off your tin foil hats just yet.
[UNRELATED-ish]
But also in those exhibits were some photos of how Trump was storing docs at Mar-a-Lago:
5.) SF STANDARD: Dean Preston (Member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors) accused of lying about housing record in lawsuit
San Francisco housing advocate Corey Smith filed a lawsuit accusing Supervisor Dean Preston of lying about his housing achievements in his reelection application. Smith seeks to have the San Francisco Department of Elections correct what he calls misinformation. Preston’s application claims accomplishments like preventing 20,000 evictions and approving 30,000 new homes, 86% affordable. Smith disputes these claims, citing city data showing only 14,000 homes approved, and argues that Preston has consistently opposed housing projects. Preston’s spokesperson dismissed the lawsuit as a media stunt.
[RELATED]
[TS] San Francisco supervisor Dean Preston also had a fake “local news” website with made up journalists writing puff pieces about him, so it’s unsurprising he’s been lying about his housing record.
[RELATED 2]
[TS] If you don’t build housing, you’re going to limit growth. I’ve covered this previously, but this is why, on net, California has now lost all of the tech-sector jobs it gained during the boom of 2021/2022. The state now has fewer tech jobs than it did pre-pandemic:
6.) [TS] The bearish case for renewables.
[TS] I’ve spent a decent amount of time talking about the explosion of renewable energy - not just in the US but in China/Australia etc. I think it’s also fair that I put it in perspective with Fossil Fuels, because the reality is: Fossil Fuels are still outpacing renewables by a large margin. Globally, hydrocarbons grew faster than wind+solar in 2023:
I know what you’re thinking: “That makes sense globally, I mean China and India are still installing a ton of coal/gas, which likely offsets other countries installing more solar.” But look at the US: In 2023 gas grew 5x faster than winder and solar combined:
And strangely enough, the sunniest countries have installed the least solar capacity:
That being said, you can still find signs that gas/oil are peaking:
Is transition by 2050 possible? It could be…
[RELATED]
LA Times: ‘Good news for 100% clean energy. Geothermal has finally arrived'
Geothermal power plants, which utilize underground heat to generate electricity, have long been overshadowed by solar, wind, and fossil fuels due to high costs. However, Fervo Energy, backed by Bill Gates, announced a major 15-year contract to supply 320 megawatts of geothermal power to Southern California Edison, enough to power 350,000 homes. This marks a significant step for advanced geothermal energy. Fervo’s innovative drilling techniques, borrowed from the oil and gas industry, have reduced costs and increased efficiency. This advancement positions geothermal energy as a reliable, round-the-clock power source, essential for reducing dependence on fossil fuels and mitigating climate change.
[RELATED 2]
CSIS found China is conservatively spending $231 billion per year to support their world dominating EV sector:
[TS] For the talk about China being the emissions problem, this type of spending is a climate hawk’s wet dream.