Trumpdate (6.25.24):

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Green Card Promise Walked Back: Trump’s campaign quickly retracts Trump’s green card promise.

2. National Debt Comparison: The CRFB compared the fiscal impacts of Trump and Biden’s policies, finding Trump approved $8.4 trillion in borrowing (excluding COVID relief) and Biden $4.3 trillion so far.

3. ‘Suckers’ and ‘Losers’ Claim: Trump denies calling fallen Marines “suckers” and “losers,” despite his former Chief of Staff John Kelly confirming it.

4. Michael Flynn’s Family Business: Michael Flynn turned his Trump-world celebrity into a family business, involving six family members and financial issues.

5. Maricopa County Election Worker Arrested: A temporary worker in Maricopa County was arrested for allegedly stealing security keys, necessitating a $19,000 reprogramming of machines.

6. Conservative Group Targets Federal Workers: A conservative group in Kentucky, funded by the Heritage Foundation, is creating a list of federal workers deemed hostile to Trump’s policies for potential scrutiny or dismissal.

NOT NEWS NEWS

7. Gaza Famine Doubts: A UN review finds famine predictions in Gaza not plausible due to uncertain evidence.

8. Young Voter Poll: Biden leads Trump 61% to 38% among voters aged 18-29, mirroring 2020 exit polls.

9. LA Antisemitic Protests: LA Mayor Karen Bass condemns recent antisemitic protests as “abhorrent.”

10. UK Election Demographics: Labour leads polls; notable voter shifts from Conservatives to Labour and Reform Party.

11. Paris Metro Expansion: Line 14 extension opened, 9.8 miles with 8 new stations, serving 1 million daily passengers.

12. Hajj Pilgrims’ Deaths: 1,300 hajj pilgrims died in extreme heat, most without permits.

1.) [UPDATE] FOX: Trump’s campaign walks back Trump’s green card promise.

[TS] I did say we should focus on what they do vs what they say - but boy was this fast!

2.) CRFB: Trump vs Biden: The National Debt.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) analyzed and compared the fiscal impacts of policies from both presidential terms, focusing on the estimated ten-year debt impact of policies approved by Presidents Trump and Biden at the time of their enactment. Findings:

• President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his full term in office, or $4.8 trillion excluding the CARES Act and other COVID relief.

• President Biden, in his first three years and five months in office, approved $4.3 trillion of new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan.

• President Trump approved $8.8 trillion of gross new borrowing and $443 billion of deficit reduction during his full presidential term. 

• President Biden has so far approved $6.2 trillion of gross new borrowing and $1.9 trillion of deficit reduction.

10-yr Debt broken down by Trump:

10-yr Debt broken down by Biden:

[TS] Really interesting analysis. The full article is great.

[RELATED]

A dozen years ago, government debt equaled 70% of the nation’s economy. This year, it will equal GDP; by 2028, it is forecast to reach 106%, matching the record during World War II; and by 2034, it could reach 122% of GDP, the highest ever.

3.) Trump claims his former Chief of Staff Gen. John Kelly, "made up the 'suckers' and 'losers' statement."

Clip per AccountableGOP:

Trump says his enemies "made up" the story that he called fallen Marines "suckers" and "losers." He says he chose not to "dignify" it with a denial.

[FACT CHECK]: He did deny it, and he was refuted by a direct witness: his former chief of staff, John Kelly.

[TS] Is there a single person on earth that believes Trump is more credible than John Kelly?

[SEMI-RELATED]

Recently, Trump to Sean Spicer said:

“Trump: You look at our airports where flights are being delayed four days where people are pitching tents in an airport because their flight is so, you know, it's never gonna even happen. We've never seen anything like it. And we’ve become like, you know, we, we are a failing nation where we've become a third world nation in many ways. Our elections are third world in my opinion, our airports are being run so badly, it's so badly. It's not even conceivable. People go the other night I had somebody going to the airport and they called up two days later to tell me that they've never gotten out. I said, but where are you still at the airport?

[FACT CHECK] In 2023—the busiest year for air travel ever—there were 16.3 million U.S. flights and a cancellation rate below 1.2 percent, the lowest rate in a decade.

4.) NYT: Michael Flynn Has Turned His Trump-World Celebrity Into a Family Business

Mike Flynn took over a 75 year-old nonprofit. Soon, it was losing money, burning through savings — and paying 6 different Flynn family members

5.) VOTEBEAT: Maricopa County election worker arrested in theft of security keys as primary nears

INCIDENT DETAILS

• A temporary election worker in Maricopa County, Walter Ringfield Jr., was arrested for allegedly stealing keys and a security fob used for accessing ballot tabulation machines.

• Ringfield was charged with one count of theft and one count of criminal damage.

• The theft occurred just a week before mail ballots were to be sent out for the upcoming primary election.

• The county will reprogram its voting machines and security fobs, costing $19,000, and redo pre-election testing to ensure integrity.

[UPDATE]

[TS] There’s some reporting coming out about who this guy is (before his socials were deleted). I’m going to wait before broadcasting what might turn out to be false.

6.) AP: Conservative-backed group is creating a list of federal workers it suspects could resist Trump plans

A political operative in Kentucky, Tom Jones, is investigating federal employees deemed hostile to Donald Trump’s policies, aiming to publish their names online. Jones, with the American Accountability Foundation and a $100,000 grant from the Heritage Foundation, is targeting high-ranking government workers, starting with the Department of Homeland Security. This effort, alarming to some, is intended to support a potential second-term Trump administration by identifying employees for potential scrutiny, reclassification, or dismissal. The initiative has drawn comparisons to McCarthyism and has been criticized for its potential to intimidate civil servants.

QUICK BITES:

1. MSNBC: Trump pitches idea of a migrant fight league in rambling weekend remarks

2. The FEC report for May indicates Trump's campaign told the truth. It reported raising $75.4 million in May —almost 70% more than the prior 4 months combined

3. ECONOMIST: [TS] Great description for astonishing growth in solar installation capacity.

   1. “…in 2004, it took the world a whole year to install a gigawatt of solar-power capacity (1 GW is a billion watts, or a thousandth of a terawatt); in 2010, it took a month; in 2016, a week. In 2023, there were single days which saw a gigawatt of installation worldwide. Over the course of 2024, analysts at BloombergNEF, a data outfit, expect to see 520-655 GW of capacity installed: that’s up to two 2004s a day.”

4. [TS] Based on reports of how the arguments went today, it looks like Judge Cannon may deny Special Counsel's motion to modify Trump's bond conditions.

5. Trump ally Jeff Durbin, leader of Republican opposition to Arizona abortion measure, says women deserve to be executed if they have an abortion: “You forfeit your right to live.”

6. Missouri courts have granted AG Andrew Bailey’s motion to block Joe Biden’s student loan plan.

7. CBS: Julian Assange, WikiLeaks founder, to plead guilty to violating the Espionage Act

7.) [TS] What happened to the famine in Gaza?

[TS] I’ve covered this before, but it seems like this might have been overstated previously. A UN body named the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification’s Famine Review Committee has reviewed the previous allegations of:

• “catastrophic levels of deprivation and starvation.”

and it “does not find the [famine prediction] analysis plausible given the uncertainty and lack of convergence of the supporting evidence.

Granted, they don’t have access to perfect data:

If the conclusions end up being true, that’s great news. That means less suffering to civilians despite a lot of aid being stolen by Hamas (I think 70% of the pier aid was reported stolen). Overall, it seems like food is eventually getting to where it needs to go.

x.) Should we fear AI?

[TS] For those of you who are unconvinced by the power a true super intelligent AI could have, let me give you one example from a conference (full 2023 conf here: “The A.I. Dilemma”):

8.) CBS/YouGov national poll of voters aged 18-29 (743 respondents)

• Biden 61%

• Trump 38%

[CONTEXT]

This is nearly identical to the 2020 exit poll, which was 60/36.

[TS] Seems the recent speculation that claimed Biden’s actions caused young voters to turn on him was incorrect.

9.) LA Mayor Karen Bass calls antisemitic protests in West LA “abhorrent” and “unacceptable.”

She joins Biden and other CA reps calling the protest unacceptable.

10.) Britain’s party demographics are changing

Britain’s election is scheduled for July 4th ([TS] Rude…).

ELECTION CONTEXT:

• The Labour Party, led by Keir Starmer, has a significant lead in opinion polls over the governing Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

  • Projections indicate that Labour may achieve a landslide victory, surpassing the scale of Tony Blair’s 1997 win, potentially leading to a substantial reduction in Conservative seats.

• A record number of candidates, over 4,500, have been nominated, indicating high engagement in the upcoming election.

PARTY DEMOGRAPHICS (based on current polling):

• Tories (the Conservative Party in UK) could lose 7 million voters compared to 2019. Of those moving:

  • Around 40% are moving to the Labor party

    • The type of voter most likely to move is

      • a white man aged 55-64

      • from the East Midlands who lives in a mortgaged home in a suburban area.

      • Works part-time and has no qualifications

    • This person had a 76% chance of voting for the Conservative Party in 2019. Today, those chances have declined to 19%.

  • Around 40% of former Tory voters are moving to the Reform Party led by Nigel Farage. They were called the Brexit Party in 2019.

[TS] In short: Over-65 less-educated white males exiting for the Farage-Putin party; under-65 less-educated white males returning to Labour.

11.) Large, automated transit expanded in Paris.

[TS] I wanted to highlight this because it is completely foreign to most Americans.

Line 14 extension just opened in Paris yesterday. Some stats:

• 9.8 miles

• 8 new stations

• 1 million passengers per day

  • [TS] For context: The DC Metro and Chicago L had a combined ridership of approx. 463M in 2023 (1.27M per day)

• Fully driverless(!) trains with frequencies up to 85 seconds(!)

• 6 years of constructions

  • Cost €2.8 billion (€286M per mile)

  • No cost overrun(!)

    • [TS] For context: NYC subway recent expansion (Second Avenue Subway Phase 1):

      • Started Apr 2007, completed Jan 2017 (10yrs)

      • 1.8 miles

      • Cost $4.6B (~$2.5B per mile)

[TS] Why in the hell can’t we do this? If you’re looking to read a few reasons why our infrastructure costs too much: BetterCities

12.) GUARDIAN: At least 1,300 hajj pilgrims died during extreme heat, Saudi Arabia says

Riyadh says more than four-fifths did not have permit to make pilgrimage to Mecca, where temperatures hit 51.8C (125.24F).