Trumpdate (6.24.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
SCOTUS Ruling: SCOTUS rules 8-1 in US v. Rahimi that the government can take guns away from domestic abusers.
Sudan Crisis: Over 9 million displaced and up to 150,000 dead in Sudan’s humanitarian crisis, with local aid efforts struggling.
Major Donation: Billionaire Timothy Mellon donates $50 million to a pro-Trump group (also RFK Jr’s biggest donor).
Ukraine Strikes: US policy allows Ukraine to hit inside Russia
NOT NEWS NEWS
Federal Spending: Federal spending levels are higher than before the pandemic, with significant increases in social security, health, and interest.
Trump Immigration: Trump talks about automatic green cards for skilled immigrants on All-In podcast, contradicting his past policies.
VC Donations: Top VCs lean left in 2024, with $11.9m to Democrats and $2.8m to Republicans; major donations from Reid Hoffman and Peter Thiel.
1.) SCOTUS rules in US v. Rahimi that the govt. can take guns away from domestic abusers (8-1).
The Supreme Court rejects the challenge to the constitutionality of a federal law that bans the possession of a gun by someone who has been the subject of a domestic violent restraining order. In a 8-1 decision, the Court holds: when an individual has been found by a court to pose a credible threat to the physical safety of another, that individual may be temporarily disarmed consistent with the Second Amendment.
[TS] The lone dissenter was Justice Thomas, no surprises here. I do want to point out a few details from the case — Clarence Thomas thinks this person should be allowed to have a gun:
2.) Slate: Nine Million People Have Fled. Up to 150,000 Are Dead. No One Is Talking About It.
A political dispute between two military generals in Sudan has escalated into a severe humanitarian crisis, resulting in over 9 million displaced people and up to 150,000 deaths. The crisis, overshadowed by other global conflicts, has led to widespread famine due to agricultural collapse and bank robberies. Local initiatives, such as community kitchens supported by the Sudanese diaspora, are struggling due to funding shortages. The conflict has also hindered aid efforts, particularly in areas controlled by the RSF militia, causing severe food shortages and making aid distribution dangerous. Despite international pledges of aid, actual donations have been insufficient, exacerbating the crisis.
[TS] I know I’ve covered this recently, but just wanted to draw some more attention to it.
3.) NYT: Timothy Mellon, Secretive Donor, Gives $50 Million to Pro-Trump Group
The cash from Mr. Mellon, a reclusive billionaire who has also been a major donor to a super PAC supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr., is among the largest single disclosed gifts ever.
[TS] I’m sure it’s just a coincidence he’s also RFK Jr’s largest donor.
4.) POLITICO: US says Ukraine can hit inside Russia ‘anywhere’ its forces attack across the border
The policy is not limited to the Kharkiv region, U.S. officials said.
[TS] I’ve covered this previously, but wanted to draw some additional attentional. For a few reasons.
In the same article, this line: The policy of not allowing long-range strikes inside Russia “has not changed,” the official stressed. So, it seems like the position hasn’t actually changed since May 31st. But —
Ukraine has been hitting Russians in Russia with U.S.-made weapons for nearly a month. What has been the result? Did it start WW3? Did Putin launch nukes? No. So much of this war has been a test of received wisdom, which is then found to have been wrong all along.
The real result: The stabilization of Kharkiv, and "astronomical" Russian losses per Kyiv Independent: "Russia likely suffered losses of almost 1,000 people a day in May, which is quite an astronomical figure," the official reportedly said, referring to the number of fatalities.
5.) CRFB: Federal spending levels are higher than before the pandemic.
Beyond 2024, social security, health, and interest each go up another point while the rest of the budget shrinks.
6.) Trump goes on All-In podcast - talks about giving automatic green cards to skilled immigrants.
[TS] This is a case where you need to pay attention to what people do vs what they say. Catherine Rampell (WaPo) lists some policies while trump was in office:
There's been credulous media coverage of Trump's "proposal" to give green cards to immigrant US college grads. It's odds with everything Trump actually did as president, to reduce *legal, skilled* immigration. Examples of actual policies he put in place, curbing visas, work permits, or green cards for skilled immigrants
He also endorsed a bill that would have cut *legal immigration in half.*
[TS] This is also pretty standard fare from Trump. He will say practically anything depending on the audience. See Politico’s recent story: ‘Trump keeps flip-flopping his policy positions after meeting with rich people.’
7.) Venture Capitalists still lean left per John Coogan
In 2024, top VCs still lean left. Midas Listers gave $11.9m to democrats vs just $2.8m to republicans.
The vast majority of political donations (in terms of dollars) comes from a few huge donors. Reid Hoffman has given over $66m and Peter Thiel has given over $49m (all time).
Overall donations from this cohort have grown significantly (probably because they are all much richer now). 2021 and 2022 were big right-leaning years, driven heavily by the Arizona and Ohio senate races. The last two years have flipped to majority dem donations.