Trumpdate (6.20.24):
[TS] What did I miss?
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Darfur Ethnic Violence: Renewed ethnic violence in Darfur by the RSF targeting non-Arabs raises fears of genocide.
Israel/Hamas: Israeli military paused operations in southern Gaza; hostages held by a notable Gaza family were rescued by the IDF; Netanyahu dissolved his war cabinet.
Washington Post Financial Troubles: The Washington Post faces significant financial losses, workforce reductions, and leadership changes while creating a new division focused on service and social media journalism.
Arizona’s ESA Program: The ESA program allows state funds for private schooling, facing budget overruns and proposed reforms by Governor Katie Hobbs.
Ukrainian Children Abductions: FT investigation found Ukrainian children abducted and advertised for adoption on Russian websites.
Hamas’ Strategy: Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar's strategy involves civilian casualties to increase international pressure on Israel.
US Debt Servicing: US spending on debt servicing has exceeded defense spending.
Clarence Thomas Gifts: Justice Clarence Thomas received nearly $6 million in gifts over two decades.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Pastor Resignation: Dallas Megachurch pastor Robert Morris resigned after admitting to 'sexual behavior' with a 12-year-old.
Senate Clean Energy Bill: The Senate passed a significant clean energy bill to speed up nuclear reactor construction.
Milwaukee Timber Tower: Milwaukee will construct a 32-story mass timber tower, set to break the record for the tallest such building.
Gaza Aid Pier: The US-built pier for Gaza aid is failing and will likely be dismantled early.
UK Renewable Energy: For the first time, wind and solar generated more electricity than gas in the UK during the first five months of 2024.
Epoch Times CFO Charges: The Epoch Times CFO, Weidong “Bill” Guan, was charged with laundering $67 million through Shen Yun Performing Arts and other entities.
Biden’s Internet Infrastructure: The Biden administration’s $42.45 billion high-speed internet initiative for rural areas has not connected any homes yet.
Job Creation Under Biden: Job creation has been faster under Biden than Trump, with wages outpacing inflation for the past 13 months.
Border Patrol Effectiveness: Border Patrol now catches a higher fraction of illegal border crossers than in the past, suggesting total crossings may not be at record highs.
Political Violence in Mexico: Increasing political violence in Mexico poses significant challenges.
1.) NYT: Why Darfur Again Faces the Risk of Ethnic Slaughter
[TS] For a quick recap, I covered this in a previous Trumpdate (#4).
Renewed ethnic violence in Darfur, driven by the RSF targeting non-Arabs, raises fears of another genocide. Over 14,000 people have been killed, and 8 million displaced. The RSF is poised to take El Fasher, the last major town in Darfur. Human rights abuses, including mass killings and sexual violence, are widespread. The international response has been criticized as insufficient amid calls for urgent action.
2.) ISRAEL / HAMAS
The Israeli military said it had suspended operations during daylight hours in parts of southern Gaza. Aid workers hope the pause will help food delivery.
WSJ: The Hostages Next Door: Inside a Notable Gaza Family’s Dark Secret
The IDF rescue operation of (4) hostages in central Gaza reveals who was holding some of the hostages:
Ahmad al-Jamal was a well-known doctor in Gaza, and his son was a journalist. Inside their apartment, they imprisoned Israeli hostages for Hamas.
Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved his war cabinet, an official said. The move was expected after two members quit.
3.) Washington Post Headwinds
WaPo is facing financial challenges, including signifiant losses amounting to $77M over the past year.
They’re reducing their workforce in response.
There have been leadership changes like the Executive Editor, Sally Buzbee, who resigned. Her resignation followed clashes with CEO William Lewis over editorial decisions, particularly regarding coverage of a British phone hacking scandal involving Lewis himself.
They’re creating a new division focusing on “service and social media journalism.”
[TS] Oh boy. Look, the headwinds in journalism are strong. You’ve got a 1.7B user juggernaut like TikTok monopolizing everyone’s attention. Journalism is not a good business to be in generally, so I get the need to remain profitable, but I would worry the pull here could threaten their journalistic standards.
4.) [UPDATE] Arizona’s Empowerment Scholarship Account (ESA)
What is ESA?
ESA is a school choice initiative that allows parents to use state funds for private schooling or homeschooling instead of public school education.
ELIGIBILITY:
Initially, ESA was limited to students with special needs, foster children, military families, and students from failing public schools. It has since expanded to include any K-12 student in the state.
FUNDING:
The program provides families with 90% of the funds that would have been spent on their child in a public or charter school. This money can be used for private school tuition, homeschooling costs, educational therapies, tutoring, and other educational expenses.
Recent updates
Budget Overruns:
The program has seen its costs exceed initial estimates. Originally projected to cost $625 million for the current year, the revised estimate is around $723.5 million. The program’s enrollment has also surpassed expectations, with over 74,000 students participating, leading to budgetary concerns.
Republican officials argue that the program is cost-effective, claiming it costs around $7,200 per ESA student compared to $14,600 per public school student. [TS] Sounds reasonable, so why would AZ be seeing budgetary constraints?
Governor Katie Hobbs (D) has announced plans to reform the ESA program, focusing on increased oversight and eligibility criteria. Her office estimates that around 67% of ESA recipients have never attended public schools, suggesting a substantial portion of the funding is directed towards new educational expenses rather than saving on existing public school costs.
Other concerns:
5.) FT: FT investigation finds Ukrainian children on Russian adoption sites
Our FT team identified and located four Ukrainian children who were abducted and taken to Russia and are now advertised as up for adoption on a Russian government-linked adoption website, including one child under a false Russian identity.
The four Ukrainian children were abducted from state care homes and separated from their guardians and relatives in towns across the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine that fell under the control of Russia’s invading army in 2022.
Ukrainian authorities estimate nearly 20,000 children have been forcibly taken from occupied territories to Russia since its full-scale invasion began in February 2022; 389 have been returned. Many thousands are still missing.
6.) WSJ: Gaza Chief’s Brutal Calculation: Civilian Bloodshed Will Help Hamas
Hamas chief terrorist Yahya Sinwar confirmed: Hamas wants Palestinians to be killed, knowing that more civilian casualties means increased world pressure on Israel. Yahya Sinwar’s correspondence with compatriots and mediators shows he is confident that Hamas can outlast Israel
7.) U.S. hits unwanted milestone: Spending on debt servicing now clearly exceeds defense spending.
Oct to May snap:
[TS] More than Medicare too! Oof…. This is the debt crisis barreling down (exacerbated by high interest rates) and both parties are avoiding the hard decisions it’s going to take to get this under control because it’ll be electorally unpopular to cut services or raise taxes - likely both.
8.) NCRM: Clarence Thomas Accepted Millions in Gifts – Far More Than All Other Justices Combined
A new study finds that Justice Thomas has likely received nearly $6 million in gifts over the past two decades.
[TS] These graphs are nuts!
QUICK BITES:
Putin visited North Korea, where he got a standing ovation. NK provides weapons to Russia like artillery shells and missiles
In Thailand, lawmakers approved a marriage equality bill. The move means the country could become the first in Southeast Asia to legalize same-sex marriage.
President Biden announced a program that would help many undocumented young adults, known as Dreamers, get a work visa quickly.
California’s governor Gavin Newson (D) called for a statewide ban on smartphone use in schools. The Los Angeles Unified School District — the nation’s second-largest — voted to approve a ban. [TS] I think this is a great idea.
NY Gov. Cathy Hochul (D) halts congestion pricing in 11th hour shift. [TS] This is colossally stupid…
9.) USA Today: Dallas Megachurch pastor (Robert Morris) resigns after admitting 'sexual behavior' with 'young lady.' She was 12.
Cindy Clemishire says Gateway Church senior pastor Robert Morris was 21 when he began molesting her when she was 12. Morris, who says he has 'walked in purity' since, has now resigned.
The now-former Pastor Robert Morris of Gateway Church was preaching to more than 100,000 active attendees and was once a spiritual adviser to former President Donald Trump. His resignation comes four days after 54-year-old Cindy Clemishire went public with allegations that Morris started molesting her when she was 12 and he was 21, telling USA TODAY on Tuesday that she was no longer afraid.
10.) CNN: The Senate just passed a critical clean energy bill to pave the way for more nuclear
The Senate just voted 88-2 for the most significant clean energy bill to pass since the IRA, a massive package to speed up licensing and construction of new nuclear reactors at home and overseas. Only Sens. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Bernie Sanders (D-VT) opposed.
[TS] I don’t know why you’d oppose this. Lord knows I’ve been banging this drum for a while.
11.) BizTimes: Construction start set for 32-story mass timber tower in downtown Milwaukee
Milwaukee is once again set to break the record for the tallest mass timber building in the world, with "The Edison" at 32 stories set to break ground next week. The same firm is in early planning stages for a 50+ story tower across the street.
[TS] This is fantastic. I’m surprised that mass timber has not been adopted nationwide. For some context: traditional light-frame wood buildings are limited to about 3-6 stories. These advancements in mass timber technology mean we can now build much taller buildings entirely out of wood instead of steel. There are multiple styles of mass timber:
Cross-Laminated Timber (CLT): Made from layers of lumber stacked crosswise and glued together. It’s used for walls, floors, and roofs.
Glue-Laminated Timber (Glulam): Composed of several layers of dimensional lumber bonded together with durable, moisture-resistant adhesives. It’s commonly used for beams and columns.
Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL): Made from thin wood veneers bonded together under heat and pressure. It’s used for beams, headers, and edge-forming material.
Nail-Laminated Timber (NLT): Constructed by stacking dimensional lumber on edge and fastening with nails. It’s used for floors, roofs, and walls.
Dowel-Laminated Timber (DLT): Similar to NLT but uses wooden dowels instead of nails to hold the layers together. It offers enhanced precision and performance.
Mass Plywood Panel (MPP): Created from layers of thin plywood laminated together, offering high strength and versatility.
I would imagine that mass timber at this stage is probably still expensive (vs comparable steel), but I would imagine that cost would go down as it reaches wider adoption. It also means you can build faster (and the building is probably lighter, so unclear if there are foundation $ savings).
12.) NYT: U.S. Pier for Gaza Aid Is Failing, and Could Be Dismantled Early
The $230 million temporary pier that the U.S. military built on short notice to rush humanitarian aid to Gaza has largely failed in its mission, aid organizations say, and will probably end operations weeks earlier than originally expected.
[TS] Covered this previously, but initially this seemed like a decent idea - obviously not. Time to cut bait. I’ve seen the cost previously listed as “over $300M+,” but based on this NYTs article it’s less, so that’s good. Obviously, $230M is still crazy (think of the opportunity costs there), but it’s better than $300M+.
13.) UK Electricity Generation>: Wind + Solar was higher than gas.
For the first time wind and solar generated more electricity than gas (first 5 months of 2024).
14.) ShowBiz411: Epoch Times CFO May Have Laundered Millions Through Shen Yun Dance Troupe and Conspiracy Fueled Chinese TV Channel
The U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York has charged Weidong “Bill” Guan, CFO of the Epoch Times, with laundering $67 million. Guan allegedly used Shen Yun Performing Arts and Universal Communications (New Tang Dynasty TV) to funnel funds. The Epoch Times’ tax filings revealed substantial donations to these entities, raising questions about their financing. Falun Gong founder Li Hongzhi distanced himself from Guan, attributing the scandal to practitioners’ mistakes.
15.) Biden’s high-speed internet infrastructure failure to rural Americans
In 2021, the Biden Administration got $42.45 billion from Congress to deploy high-speed Internet to millions of Americans.
Years later, it has not connected even 1 person with those funds. In fact, it now says that no construction projects will even start until 2025 at earliest.
[TS] This comes off the back of the EV charging failure: Per WaPo: Biden’s $7.5 billion investment in EV charging has only produced 7 stations in two years. A common theme among these projects: excessive bureaucracy. This is the red tape most Americans would agree need to be cut.
[UPDATE]
Per FreeBeacon: White House 'Equity' Requirements Holding Back EV Charging Station Construction, Internal Docs Show.
Shortly after taking office, the president signed an executive order mandating that the beneficiaries of 40 percent of all federal climate and environmental programs should come from "underserved communities."
In order to qualify for a grant, applicants must "demonstrate how meaningful public involvement, inclusive of disadvantaged communities, will occur throughout a project’s life cycle." What "public involvement" means is unclear. But the Department of Transportation notes it should involve "intentional outreach to underserved communities."
"This all just slows down construction," says Jim Meigs, a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute who focuses on federal regulation.
"These ‘public involvement’ requirements are impossible to quantify and even open builders up to lawsuits by members of the community where an electric vehicle charging station is set to be constructed."
16.) Job creation faster under Biden than Trump (TS - no matter how you slice it)
Pretty good stats here for Biden on Job creation, purchasing power and unemployment rate.
[TS] Why won’t this land with the public? I’ve covered this probably a half dozen times. This Trumpdate (#1) has the most recent polling misconceptions. A snap:
[TS] Related context on inflation/wages. Here’s the big picture:
Inflation is up +20.8% since the pandemic
Inflation is up +19.3% since the inauguration (Jan '21)
Wages are up +22.3% since the pandemic
Wages are up +16.6% since inauguration
Wages have outpaced inflation for the past 13 months, an encouraging sign that is helping more Americans get ahead.
[RELATED]
Lending Tree Survey: 78 percent said that fast food has become an unaffordable luxury. Compare that with the real (inflation adj) sales at limited service restaurants:
[TS] Again, something we’ve covered previous, but it does feel like behavior has been decoupled from what people profess they believe.
17.) Briefing Book: Border Patrol catches a much higher fraction of people crossing the border than it used to.
Border Patrol catches a much higher fraction of people crossing the border than it used to. This suggests that while *border apprehensions* are at record highs, total illegal *border crossings* are likely not. Total was probably higher in '90s-'00s
[RELATED]
Border crossings have dropped in ’24.
18.) Political Violence in Mexico
