Trumpdate (5.9.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS:
Israel-Gaza Conflict: Biden warns Israel that the U.S. will not supply offensive weapons if Israel invades Rafah.
2024 Election Integrity: Top Republicans, led by Trump, refuse to commit to accepting the 2024 election results, raising concerns about potential election fraud conspiracy theories.
House Motion to Vacate: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's motion to vacate fails considerably, with a vote of 359 to 43.
Tesla Investigation: U.S. prosecutors are investigating whether Tesla committed securities or wire fraud by misleading investors and consumers about the self-driving capabilities of its electric vehicles.
Trump's Georgia Election Case: The Georgia Court of Appeals agrees to hear an appeal, likely pushing the case beyond the election.
Border Crossings: According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, illegal border crossings fell 40% from the end of 2023 to the start of 2024.
AlphaFold 3: Google's DeepMind/Isomorphic Labs created a new AI, AlphaFold 3, that predicts the structure and interactions of all life's molecules.
Biden in Wisconsin: Biden touts a new Microsoft facility in Wisconsin, where a Trump-lauded Foxconn plant stalled out.
Abortion and Interstate Travel: A federal court rules that laws restricting interstate travel for abortion violate the right to travel.
US’s Iran Envoy's Security Clearance: U.S. Iran Envoy Rob Malley's security clearance is suspended over alleged classified document transfer to personal devices.
NOT NEWS NEWS:
Streaming Bundle: Disney and Warner Bros will team up to start a new streaming bundle that includes Disney+, Hulu, and Max.
2024 Republican Primary: [TS] clarifies the significance about the Indiana primary.
Clean Energy: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of the global total.
Russian Propaganda: Russian journalist Vladislav Shurygin suggests using cluster munitions and wiping out entire Ukrainian towns.
Biden's Domestic Spending Initiatives: Voters in a new poll say they're not very familiar with Biden's domestic spending initiatives.
Superconductors: New Scientist article discusses the potential for room-temperature superconductors.
Judge Cannon's Delay: Plausible theories on why Judge Cannon delayed Trump's classified documents case.
Venezuela's Last Glacier: Venezuela loses its last glacier as it shrinks down to an ice field.
FreedomWorks Closing: The libertarian organization FreedomWorks is closing and blaming Trump.
Fox Corp on Primary Season: Fox Corp Chief Lachlan Murdoch expresses disappointment in the lack of a more competitive primary season.
Rep. Bowman's YouTube Page: Rep. Jamaal Bowman's active YouTube account shows an ongoing interest in fringe content and conspiracy theories.
RFK Jr's Brain Worm: RFK Jr says doctors found a dead worm in his brain.
Justice Alito's Commencement Address: Justice Samuel Alito will deliver the commencement address at Franciscan University of Steubenville and receive an honorary doctorate in Christian ethics.
1.) CNN: Biden: "If Israel invades Rafah - we will not supply it with bombs for airplanes, artillery shells and other offensive weapons"
[TS] Whoa. I did not see that coming. He really should have said it to Israel in private. This seems to greatly diminish Israel’s leverage to get a hostage deal. The entire situation is vexing. So many questions:
How can Israel leave the bulk of Hamas alive? Won’t an Oct 7th attack just happen again? Hard to imagine this wouldn’t be considered a net-win by Hamas.
Will Israel/IDF maintain a presence in Gaza?
Will they do limited strikes/attacks?
Will they try and occupy/destroy the tunnel network? It is massive: 250 miles of tunnels (think of the aid wasted in Gaza on this - billions!)
What happens to Gaza? In short: What is the plan?
Is Hamas going to continue to govern?
Who is rebuilding? It will be extremely difficult. Why? Consider a few data points from Charles Birch, who oversees the UN Mine Action Service (per New Yorker):
More unexploded missiles and bombs have fallen in Gaza than anywhere in the world since at least the Second World War
Ukrainian frontline is 600 mi long, and Gaza frontline is 25 mi long. There’s more rubble—37M tons—in Gaza than in Ukraine.
It really feels like Israel has arrived at the worst outcome:
Did not rescue/save bulk of hostages (went in far too late)
Hamas remains intact and functional (will continue firing rockets into Israel)
Killed thousands of civilians*
*Granted this was not the intent and unavoidable in a densely urban war - but now what do they have to show for it?
Consider US/ISIS engagements - a higher % of non-combatants killed vs combatants but ISIS was effectively eradicated.
Large sections of Palestine are destroyed (will lead to higher rates of unrest)
Diminished relationships with allies (US in particular)
No larger deal with Saudi Arabia for “normalization.”
Bibi remains in power
Bewildering incompetence
Allowed the deadliest terror attack in Israel’s history
Conducted a war (to the dismay of his Generals/Cabinet), seemingly without a plan before, during or after.
Granted, no country on earth is viewed through a more critical lens than Israel. They are the only country not afforded the same latitudes during war. But, this is one of the first wars that has been live-streamed from its inception. Millions (billions?) of people are witnessing the horrors of war for the first time — in realtime — and many are coming away with the impression that war itself is untenable. Hard to defend any action while watching a child being pulled from the rubble.
[UPDATE] GOP messaging around Biden’s halt of offensive weapons seems to be: “The Democrats impeached another president for supposedly withholding aid that had been approved by Congress.” (Pence et al).
[TS] Pardon my language, but that is complete and utter bullshit. Trump denied Ukraine aid for an explicit and personal political favor. Biden is threatening to halt aid over differences over the conduct of the war (Reagan halted F16 sales to Israel in response to its bombing of Beirut). Not to mention, the US imposes limits on its aid all the time. For example: The U.S. has imposed limits on its support to Ukraine: ie prohibiting strikes on Russian territory with U.S. weapons.
2.) WaPo: Top Republicans, led by Trump, refuse to commit to accept 2024 election results
SEN TIM SCOTT (R-SC):
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) was pressed at least six times in a TV interview Sunday on whether he would accept this November’s results. He repeatedly declined to do so, only saying he was looking forward to Trump being president again.
“This is why so many Americans believe that NBC is an extension of the Democrat party at the end of the day,” Scott said at one point. “… I believe that President Trump will be our next president. It’s that simple.”
GOV DOUG BURGUM (R):
North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, in a TV interview Sunday, dodged a question about Trump’s comments on political violence. Burgum, like Scott, declined to contemplate a scenario in which the former president loses and said he was “looking forward to next January, when Vice President Harris certifies the election for Donald Trump.”
REP ELISE STEFANIK (R-NY):
Rep. Elise Stefanik (N.Y.), the No. 4 Republican in the House, would not commit in January to voting to certify the 2024 results as a member of Congress.
“We will see if this is a legal and valid election,” Stefanik told NBC News
REP BRYON DONALDS (R-FL):
Declined in March to say whether he would certify the 2028 election results if he were vice president.
“If you have state officials who are violating the election law in their states ... then no, I would not,” Donalds said at an Axios event.
REP MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA):
Yesterday - Speaker Mike Jonson won’t say he accepts results of the 2020 election, won’t commit to accepting the 2024 results.
[JOHSON-RELATED] At the same press conference, Johnson, Stephen Miller, Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and other Republicans warn about the fake threat of illegal aliens voting in the presidential election:
[TS] Sure sounds above board! “We all know intuitively” — as in, made up.
Also, the right is making it extraordinarily clear that if Joe Biden wins a close election in 2024, they plan to use election fraud conspiracy theories as a pretext to toss the results and install Donald Trump in office.
[ROY-RELATED] Rep Chip Roy (R-TX) who is a leading House Republican, attacks all of America's immigrants - not just the undocumented, but naturalized citizens, legal residents, and foreign students:
We have 51.5 million people who are foreign born in the US. They have about 20-25 million kids. That puts that well over 20% of our population. It's the highest such number in the history of our country. People say, isn't that great? Is it?
3.) Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) initiates a motion to vacate - fails considerably. Vote was 359 to 43.
When MTG brings the motion to the floor she is booed by both chambers of the House:
[UPDATE] Final vote to table motion: 359 to 43
196 Republicans voted to kill it
11 Republicans voted to advance effort
163 Democrats voted to kill it
32 Dems voted to advance effort
7 voted present
The 11 R’s: Massie (R-KY), Greeene (R-GA), Davidson (R-OH), Moore (R-AL), Biggs (R-AZ), Roy (R-TX), Mooney (R-WV), Spartz (R-IN), Gosar (R-AZ), Crane (R-AZ), Burlison (R-MO) —- [TS] No Gaetz?!?! Ouch.
4.) REUTERS: In Tesla Autopilot probe, US prosecutors focus on securities, wire fraud.
U.S. prosecutors are investigating whether Tesla committed securities or wire fraud by misleading investors and consumers about the self-driving capabilities of its electric vehicles. The Justice Department is examining statements made by Tesla and CEO Elon Musk suggesting the cars can drive themselves, despite the Autopilot and Full Self-Driving systems not being fully autonomous. The Securities and Exchange Commission is also investigating Tesla's representations about its driver-assistance systems to investors. The probe comes amid regulatory investigations and lawsuits concerning fatal crashes involving Teslas with Autopilot engaged, resulting in a mass recall by the automaker.
5.) [UPDATE] Trump’s GA election case: Court of Appeals agrees to hear appeal = case is likely pushed beyond election.
The Georgia Court of Appeals has agreed to hear an appeal from defendants over whether the judge erred when he ruled that Fani Willis could remain on the Trump RICO prosecution in Fulton County. This pushes that trial further off, likely beyond the election.
[TS] It is now likely that the hush-money trial in NY will be the only courtroom Trump sees before the election.
6.) WaPo: Border crossings have fallen
Per US Customs and Border Protection (CBP): Illegal border crossings fell 40% from end of 2023 vs start of 2024:
7.) Google’s DeepMind/Isomorphic Labs created a new AI - AlphaFold 3 that “predicts the structure and interactions of all of life’s molecules.”
Summary from Google:
AlphaFold 3, a revolutionary AI model introduced by DeepMind, can predict the structure and interactions of various biomolecules, including proteins, DNA, RNA, and small molecules, with unprecedented accuracy. The model's capabilities are expected to transform the understanding of the biological world and accelerate drug discovery. Isomorphic Labs is collaborating with pharmaceutical companies to apply AlphaFold 3 to real-world drug design challenges. Most of AlphaFold 3's capabilities are accessible for free through the newly launched AlphaFold Server, an easy-to-use research tool for non-commercial purposes. DeepMind has engaged with domain experts and the research community to understand the potential risks and benefits of AlphaFold 3 and is committed to sharing its benefits responsibly.
8.) CBS: Biden touts new Microsoft facility in Wisconsin visit, where Trump-lauded Foxconn plant stalled out
Biden traveled to Sturtevant, Wisconsin, where he'll highlight a decision by Microsoft to build a $3.3 billion data center that is expected to create roughly 2,000 jobs. It's also the spot where Trump, to much fanfare, lauded a plan by Taiwan-based electronics giant Foxconn to build a $10 billion manufacturing facility that was supposed to eventually employ 10,000 people. Except it was never completed.
9.) Federal Court Rules Laws Restricting Interstate Travel for Abortion Violate the Right to Travel
The decision addresses an important issue left open by the Supreme Court's decision reversing Roe v. Wade. Judge Myron Thompson's ruling struck down an Alabama law criminalizing the assistance or facilitation of out-of-state abortions for Alabama residents.
The constitutional right to travel protects not only the physical movement between states but also the right to engage in lawful activities in the destination state.
The main points are:
The Privileges and Immunities Clause of Article IV ensures that citizens can enjoy the same rights and opportunities in other states as the residents of those states.
The right to travel would be a "hollow shell" if it only allowed physical movement but restricted freedom of action based on one's home state laws.
Supreme Court precedents demonstrate that even minor burdens on travel, including those that target facilitators of travel, are generally unconstitutional.
Laws punishing people who assist others in exercising their constitutional rights are unconstitutional, just as laws directly targeting the rights-holders would be.
10.) US’s Iran Envoy Rob Malley's Security Clearance Suspended Over Alleged Classified Document Transfer to Personal Devices
Top Republicans have written to Secretary of State Antony Blinken about the suspension of Iran Envoy Rob Malley's security clearance. The letter alleges that Malley transferred classified documents to his personal email and cell phone, which were subsequently stolen by a hostile cyber actor. Congress has had to resort to backchannels to learn about this breach, while the Iranian regime has consistently known more about Malley's suspension than Congress. The State Department initially told senior congressional staff that Malley was on extended "family leave" rather than admitting his clearance had been suspended.
[TS] More to come, I’m sure. The optics are not good here…
What R’s wrote:
NOT NEWS NEWS
11.) Disney and Warner Bros will team up to start a new streaming bundle that includes Disney+, Hulu and Max.
[TS] Cable incoming.
12.) [UPDATE / REFINEMENT] [TS] Wanted to throw some cold water on my point yesterday (re-Haley getting 20%+ in Indiana primary).
Granted, I did say take it with a mound of salt. But, if we look at the last Presidential primary in 2020 with Biden, Bernie et al. Biden consistently won primaries with only 80%. Bernie was getting 20% or close to 20% in multiple states after he dropped out:
13.) AP: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total
14.) Russian journalist and military analyst Vladislav Shurygin tells Vladimir Solovyov (prominent RUS TV presenter) that Ukrainians are animals who don't understand anything human.
Here’s the clip of the exchange per Julia Davis (DailyBeast).
He suggested using cluster munitions and wiping out entire towns where Ukrainian soldiers' wives, children and parents live.
15.) The Hill: Voters in new poll say they’re not very familiar with Biden domestic spending initiatives
Regarding the American Rescue Plan, 34 percent of voters responded “none at all” when asked how much they’ve seen, read or heard about it; 30 percent of voters had the same response about the infrastructure law, 44 percent for the CHIPS and Science Act and 24 percent for the the Inflation Reduction Act.
[RELATED] Per Politico, w/McKay Coppins lead-in:
Trump: Declares nine different "Infrastructure Weeks," derails them all with various antics and scandals, fails to sign any major legislation.
Biden: Negotiates with Congress to pass a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
Result:
[TS] One thing that Trump learned as a salesman is that repeatedly *saying* you are doing big things often makes a bigger impression on people not paying too much attention than actually doing anything.
Although Biden talks quite a bit about infrastructure, I imagine people not close to the issue attribute it to Trump because he was first.
Jordan Weissmann’s take:
At some point, it seems like a lot of voters decided Joe Biden just wasn't doing much — possibly because of his age and vibe — and it's just very difficult to dislodge that impression no matter how much he talks about bills he's passed.
Like, on some level, the median indepedent voter thinks of Biden as the "bad economy guy" and Trump as the "good economy guy" and everything flows from there.
A lot of people overestimate the extent to which the median voter actually reads or watches the news. I'm pretty sure the results here would look pretty different if you polled regular NYT readers or CNN watchers!
For context: Only 38% of Americans said they closely followed the news in 2022. If you're wondering why the media has failed to inform voters on some crucial issue, often the answer is that it's just losing the fight for attention to YouTube, TikTok, and Netflix.
Unfortunately, for the purposes of a well-informed electorate, running stories dutifully informing readers about Joe Biden's infrastructure successes isn't necessarily a great way to win their eyeballs back.
A nice real time demonstration. Right now, the Washington Post has Biden's trip to Wisconsin to announce a new Microsoft AI Center in the top box of its homepage. Guess what's not on the most read list?
Maybe a spicier, more opinionated version arguing that Biden is showing how he's accomplished what Donald Trump only dreamed of would do a bit better. But ultimately, the reader's gonna click what they click.
[TS] Maybe this is a good time to disabuse people of some wildly held beliefs:
Illegal immigrants are eligible for SNAP: FALSE
We spend more on the military than on healthcare: FALSE: The Fed goverment alone spends more than twice as much on healthcare than on defense.
The rich pay less tax than the middle class: FALSE: I’ve gone over this in great detail on a previous Trumpdate.
China owns a majority of federal debt: FALSE: China owns roughly ~3% of outstanding public debt of the US.
16.) NEW SCIENTIST: Why we are finally within reach of a room-temperature superconductor. [TS] But it doesn’t matter!
[TS] Sounds like a big deal but I predict this changes nothing. Why? You can build a superconductor and cool it cheaply with liquid nitrogen. So, why do all the big boys that use superconductors (LHC etc.) rely on very expensive cooling via liquid helium? Because they’re made out of conventional metal wire. Why? So that they can bend/they’re malleable.
17.) Plausible theory on why Judge Cannon delayed case (re-Trump’s classified docs case).
Most people tend to think she’s in the can for Trump, but there’s another theory floating around:
Per Asha Rangappa:
I think that Judge Cannon is intellectually out of her league and is having some weird analysis paralysis because her personal partisanship makes her place Trump’s bizarre arguments (like that nuclear secrets are his personal records) on par with Smith’s *actual* legal arguments. She’s afraid of making any mistake, lest Smith have a basis to appeal and perhaps get her removed, and so in this lost, ineffective, and paranoid state, the best she can hope for is that Trump gets elected and the case just goes away. So that’s her play.
This is exactly my read. She’s not a brilliant conspirator - she’s a mediocrity promoted far beyond her competence who is now frozen like a deer in the headlights.
Additional evidence:
Judge Cannon has a thin criminal trial resume
She has run just four, relatively routine criminal trials in her short tenure on the bench — a stark contrast to the historic and complex proceedings she’s about to undertake related to the former president.
Her arguments about CIPA issues.
Legal World Reaction: “It's comical that Cannon says there are "novel and difficult" CIPA issues when, due to her delays, we've barely litigated any of the CIPA issues. She has no idea! The one piece of litigation we've had, CIPA Section 4, is not complicated at all.”
Judge Cannon seems on track to grant hearings on every motion Trump & codefs have filed.
Most stunning is this 3-day hearing on whether to widen discovery by redefining "prosecution team" to include people in White House, NARA, intelligence community etc:
Alternative theory:
It is plausible that Cannon is just egregiously out of her league. Delay does help Trump. But it also postpones Cannon’s moment in the spotlight of history, where she is likely to appear a complete fool.
18.) GUARDIAN: Venezuela loses its last glacier as it shrinks down to an ice field
Venezuela has lost its last remaining glacier after it shrunk so much that scientists reclassified it as an ice field.
It is thought Venezuela is the first country to have lost all its glaciers in modern times.
The country had been home to six glaciers in the Sierra Nevada de Mérida mountain range, which lies at about 5,000m above sea level. Five of the glaciers had disappeared by 2011, leaving just the Humboldt glacier, also known as La Corona, close to the country’s second highest mountain, Pico Humboldt.
19.) POLITICO: FreedomWorks Is Closing — And Blaming Trump
The libertarian organization couldn’t survive the populist shift in the Republican Party.
Curtains for one of the prominent Obama-era "tea party" groups. Trump's rise proved that conservative voters don't really care about supply-side economics or the size of government, which forces tea party orgs to rebrand as MAGA outfits focused on cultural issues — or shut down.
[TS] Goodnight sweet prince.
20.) “We’re disappointed for multiple reasons that there wasn’t a more competitive primary season." -- Fox Corp Chief Lachlan Murdoch on earnings call when asked about political advertising during presidential election campaigns.
[TS] The mask slips a bit:
21.) DAILY BEAST: Squad Rep’s YouTube Page Is a Conspiracy Theorist’s Dream
Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) has insisted his days of engaging with fringe content are behind him. His active YouTube account shows otherwise.
Although Bowman claims to be unfamiliar with the accounts and videos, his subscriptions span a wide range of topics, from UFOs and parallel dimensions to anti-government rhetoric and geopolitical conspiracies. Despite his previous disavowal of 9/11 conspiracy theories, Bowman's YouTube activity suggests an ongoing interest in unconventional and often extreme content.
Examples of videos:
"This CIA Document Literally Explains Time Travel (practical steps included)"
"Kanye Exposes the Truth: 'The Secret Codes They Don't Want You to Know'"
"'100% Alien Technology' - Something Big Being Hidden From Us"
"What's Coming is WORSE Than a WW3, Iran is Ready"
"Vatican Angry as PUTIN Declares Russia will Only Worship THE BLACK JESUS"
"Are You an Alien Among Us? Signs You Might Not Be from This World"
22.) NYT: RFK Jr Says Doctors Found a Dead Worm in His Brain
[TS] Can’t take credit but thought this was good:
You, a fool: RFK Jr seems like he has brain worms.
RFK, wise: A worm literally devoured my brain.
What I can take credit for: “Promoting ivermectin makes a lot more sense in hindsight when you have a literal brain worm/parasite.”
[RELATED] Because RFK Jr. is an anti-vaxer I thought it was relevant to point out: Vaccines have saved 150 million children over the last 50 years:
