Indiana Primary Election Results: Trump loses 20% of vote to withdrawn candidates
NOT NEWS NEWS
Journalism Pulitzer Prizes: Breakdown of winners by ownership type
College student protests: Most students oppose disruptive protest tactics
Trump/Barron graduation saga: Conflicting events on May 17th
Campaign contributions: Direct donations to candidates in close races most effective
Speaker Mike Johnson: Calls for all cases against Trump to be dropped
US murder rate: Down 19% in 2024 so far, per data from 236 cities
Trump's potential trade war powers: Advisers explore new legal powers for global trade war
NEWS NEWS
1.) Israel / Hamas
MORE LIGHT SHED ON THE HAMAS PROPOSAL
First, I want to point out how the Hamas proposal was broadcast by the NYTs:
[TS] Granted, the buck is passed saying “Officials describe” but I do think there should have been more due diligence here in highlighting the differences — or they should have waited. We now know the differences. Let’s get into them (per Shaiel Ben-Ephraim):
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What Israel has previously accepted, vs what Hamas proposed:
ISRAEL: 33 humanitarian hostages released
HAMAS: 18 humanitarian hostages released alive. The rest are "dead or alive."
ISRAEL: 3 hostages released per day.
HAMAS: 3 per week.
ISRAEL: 20 prisoners for every humanitarian hostage and 40 heavy prisoners for every female soldier.
HAMAS: 30 prisoners for every humanitarian hostage and 50 heavy prisoners for every female soldier.
ISRAEL: Wants a veto on the identity of prisoners released.
HAMAS: Israel gets no say.
ISRAEL: Only civilians return to the north.
HAMAS: Everyone returns, including armed terrorists.
ISRAEL: No declaration on the end of the war.
HAMAS: Declaration of ending the war in the first phase of the ceasefire.
[TS] There are some pretty big differences here. Explains why the Israelis were so furious about this being announced before they had a chance to review. Hard to see how these gaps are bridged.
Also, Hamas can’t produce 33 hostages who are still alive? Wasn’t there supposed to be 125 left?
Hard to imagine any women under 40(?) coming out alive. Hamas’s goal is the destruction of Israel. They amplify bad press about Israel. They do not care about Palestinians. Recall:
They do not wear uniforms so that they can hide among civilians
They use civilians as human shields hoping to deter Israel (imagine if Israel did this - would Hamas hesitate for a second? It’s like a dark-humor Monty Python skit)
Their headquarters are in civilian buildings (eg Hospitals)
They fire rockets from civilian buildings
20% of the 13,000+ rockets have not made it to Israel and instead have landed in Palestine
They used the billions in aid to build tunnels and buy military equipment
They steal free food aid and sell it back to the Palestinian people
Any women who is under 40 has likely been abused. They likely would never free them so they couldn’t tell world about the torture they’ve experienced.
[TS] Speaking of bad press for Israel:
This is just unnecessary destruction and reckless.
[RELATED] American’s sympathy for Palestinians is up across the political spectrum (also down for Israelis) per Morning Consult:
[TS] Summary from NBC - scroll to the bottom for my notes.
Stormy Daniels' Testimony:
Described her childhood, career, and first meeting with Trump in 2006
Testified about the alleged sexual encounter with Trump in a hotel suite
Recalled feeling ashamed and trying to leave the hotel quickly afterward
Maintained contact with Trump, who suggested a role on "The Apprentice"
Hush Money Payment:
Accepted $130,000 from Trump's team to sign a nondisclosure agreement in 2016
Understood the agreement required pretending they had never met
Insisted the exact dollar figure was not important to her
Experienced "chaos" in her personal life after the arrangement became public
Trump's Harassment:
Displayed a social media post where Trump referred to Daniels as "horseface" and "sleazebag"
Acknowledged her disdain for Trump and hope for his imprisonment if found guilty
Claimed she only started calling him names after he mocked her first
Mistrial Motion:
Trump's lawyer argued that Daniels' testimony "inflamed" the jury with irrelevant statements
Judge denied the motion, stating it was not warranted at this point
Reminded Daniels to keep her answers short and avoid extraneous details
Trump's Eye for Detail:
Excerpts from Trump's books were entered into evidence by the prosecution
The excerpts emphasized Trump's attention to detail and involvement in financial matters
Trump wrote about the importance of signing checks and monitoring expenses closely
[TS] A few comments:
Daniels said Trump told her this over “dinner” at the hotel:
"You remind me of my daughter because she is smart and blonde and beautiful and people underestimate her as well.” [TS] Oofta
Daniels says when Trump showed her a photo of Melania, she said she was beautiful. He said not to worry, “We don’t even sleep in the same room.” Trump shook his head and muttered something to his legal team as she said this. He appears increasingly irritated as she testifies.
[TS] This helps undercut Trump’s defense that the catch and kill scheme was to protect his marriage and Melania, rather than his campaign; he doesn’t seem too concerned about her here.
Q/A with Daniel’s and the Prosecution
Q: Were you aware in early Oct 2016, the Access Hollywood tape coming out publicly?
A: Yes, Gina told me.
Q: Was she successful in selling the story before the AH tape came out?
A: No.
[TS] This bit is important. Stormy's story became valuable AFTER the access Hollywood tape came out - showing that his campaign was on the ropes, and Stormy could have knocked it out. That's why her story became valuable to catch and kill. See:
Dylan Howard reminded Stormy’s lawyer Keith Davidson the day after the Access Hollywood tape came out, Trump was “fucked already,” but Stormy’s telling her story herself would have been “the final nail in the coffin.”
At 7:30 AM, Trump posted on Truth Social that he had learned who the upcoming witness was and his team had no time to prepare. Within 30 minutes, Trump -- who is under a gag order he's already been found to have been in contempt of 10 times -- took the post down
3.) REUTERS: Maersk says Red Sea disruption could cut Asia-Europe capacity by 20%
[WHO IS MAERSK?] Maersk is a Danish business conglomerate primarily known for its activities in the transportation and logistics sector, particularly in container shipping, where it is the world's largest company by both fleet size and cargo capacity.
Disruptions to Red Sea container shipping due to attacks by Yemen's Houthi militants are forcing shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to reroute vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This is expected to reduce the container industry's capacity between Asia and Europe by up to 20% in the second quarter. The longer journey times are resulting in additional costs and delays, with fuel costs on affected routes now 40% higher per journey for Maersk. The disruptions are causing ripple effects across several other container freight routes and are expected to last at least until the end of 2024.
Judge Cannon’s rationale for indefinitely postponing Trump’s classified documents trial is that a large number of pretrial motions remain unresolved—a state of affairs she has literally engineered by failing to resolve them.
Realistically there is nothing Jack Smith can do to move the Mar-a-Lago case forward to trial before the election. Judges have extremely broad discretion over their trial calendar, which is what gives Judge Cannon the ability to avoid setting a trial date at this time.
[TS] Almost 0% chance Trump will face trial on the classified documents charge in 2024 (in addition to the already remote chance that he faces trial on the 2020 election case this year.)
[UPDATE] I see one State Attorney - Dave Aronberg who offers a different take (perhaps a silver lining?):
This is good for Jack Smith. This trial was never going to happen before the election. Now that it’s off the calendar, the DC election interference case can proceed as soon as (or IF) the Supreme Court gives the green light.
The worst thing for Jack Smith was for Judge Cannon to have kept this on the calendar, which would have prevented the DC case from happening after SCOTUS rules.
[TS] Time will tell.
5.) Indiana Primary Election Results
[TS] I would hate to read too much into this, but this late in the game — when Haley has been out forever -- and Trumps’ still losing 20% of the vote? Seems like a fairly sizable protest against him. But, I’m no election historian so I can’t provide relevant context here. Take the above with a mound of salt.
NOT NEWS NEWS
6.) Journalism Pulitzer - [TS] Interesting stat I saw:
Of the 11 outlets that won journalism Pulitzers:
None were owned by hedge funds
None were owned by private equity
2 in publicly traded companies
4 were nonprofit
5 were family owned
[TS] Not a split I was expecting and goes to show the loss we’ll see as local journalism is hollowed out.
[UPDATE] [TS] Alright, I was curious as to the who’s who:
The New York Times - owned by The New York Times Company, a publicly-traded company.
The Washington Post - owned by Nash Holdings LLC, a company controlled by Jeff Bezos, the founder of Amazon.
The Wall Street Journal - owned by Dow Jones & Company, a subsidiary of News Corp, which is controlled by Rupert Murdoch.
The Atlantic - Emerson Collective, an organization founded by Laurene Powell Jobs, the widow of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs.
ProPublica - an independent, nonprofit newsroom that is primarily funded by philanthropic donations.
The Marshall Project - a nonprofit news organization that covers the U.S. criminal justice system. It is primarily funded by philanthropic donations.
The New Yorker - owned by Condé Nast, a global media company that is controlled by Advance Publications, a privately-held company owned by the Newhouse family.
The Associated Press - a nonprofit news cooperative that is owned by its member newspapers and broadcasters.
Reuters - a global news agency that is owned by Thomson Reuters, a multinational media conglomerate.
The Tampa Bay Times - owned by the Poynter Institute, a nonprofit school for journalism.
The Boston Globe - owned by Boston Globe Media Partners, LLC, a privately-held company that is primarily owned by John Henry, the principal owner of the Boston Red Sox and Liverpool Football Club.
[TS] Ok. Far less impactful than I initially thought.
7.) AXIOS: Most college students shrug at nationwide protests
[TS] Of note:
67% say occupying campus buildings is unacceptable.
58% say refusing a university's order to disperse is unacceptable.
90% say blocking pro-Israel students from parts of campus is unacceptable.
Only 8% have participated in either side of the protests.
58% who participated in or favored protests against Israel said they would not consider being friends with someone who has marched for Israel.
[RELATED-ISH]: Tabaret Hall at the University of Ottawa in Ontario, Canada.:
8.) Will he/won’t he?: The ongoing Trump/Barron graduation saga:
Donald Trump is scheduled to give the keynote address at the Minnesota Republican Party's annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner on May 17, the same day he requested off court to attend his son Barron Trump's graduation ceremony.
[TS] Place your bets!
9.) Contributions directly to campaigns matter a lot
Direct contributions to campaigns in close races can by 10x more ad impressions than contributions to superpacs and committees.
Per Slowboring:
[TS] In short: Give money directly to candidates in close races (especially at the local level). Want to know where to find close races? Cook ratings:
10.) Speaker Mike Johnson wants all cases against Trump dropped:
[TS] I guess he had to pay the piper for avoiding the motion to vacate.
11.) AHDatalytics: The murder rate is down 19% in 2024 thus far, per data collected directly from 236 cities across the US.
[TS] I’ve covered this trajectory previously, but I wanted to bring it up again as we continue to see the drop as the year progresses (also why it’s not in NEWS NEWS).
12.) WaPo: Trump advisers explore vast new legal powers for global trade war
Expert say Trump can probably do the 10% tax on all imports without new legislation. Then companies who need access to inputs will come hat in hand to the White House begging for exemptions, politicizing the whole supply chain.
[TS] Not good. I’ve covered tariffs in the past for Biden and Trump. Overall, broad tariffs are not a good economic policy.
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