Trumpdate (5.7.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Israel/Hamas: Israel signals offensive in Rafah; Hamas accepts ceasefire proposal with three phases spanning 126 days, involving prisoner exchanges and Gaza rebuilding plans.
Russia: European intelligence warns of Russian sabotage plots, including bombings, arson, and infrastructure damage, using proxies and organized crime ties.
Trump Trial: Trump faces 10th contempt charge; testimony reveals $420,000 payment to Cohen, including hush money reimbursement, bonus, and tax "gross-up."
Darfur: Rapid Support Forces, responsible for past genocide, surround El Fasher, threatening 800,000 people; attack expected to be catastrophic.
Noem: South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem pitched herself for top NRA job, offering to resign early as governor.
Trump Nonprofit: Conservative Partnership Institute paid millions to companies connected to its leaders, raising self-dealing concerns.
Giuliani: Rudy Giuliani's excessive spending, including $43,000 a month, pushes him towards bankruptcy.
NOT NEWS NEWS:
Trump Cognitive Test: Leaked footage shows Trump bragging about "acing" a cognitive screening tool designed to detect dementia and Alzheimer's.
Antisemitism: ADL reports more recorded antisemitic incidents in the USA from Oct-Dec 2023 than the previous nine months combined.
UNC Protest: UNC faculty threatens to withhold final grades until suspended student protesters are reinstated.
Georgia Politics: Former Republican Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan to vote for Biden over Trump in November.
Columbia University: Columbia cancels main commencement ceremony scheduled for May 15
NEWS NEWS:
1.) Israel / Hamas
RAFAH ASSAULT
Israel signals it will start an offensive in Rafah
UNRWA says they are not evacuating: “the Agency will maintain a presence in Rafah as long as possible & will continue providing lifesaving aid to people.”
[TS] That sounds noble, but I do wonder if they should be doing everything in their power to help those in eastern Rafah follow the evacuation orders and go to al Mawasi.
[TS] I don’t understand why Israel has taken this long to start the invasion to Rafah. They (Bibi?) have completely mismanaged this war from the start. No clear plan during or after. Not to mention, the longer it goes on the less sympathy Israel will get (or people just lose interest).
Israel drops leaflets over Rafah and orders 100k Palestinians to evacuate to makeshift tent camp ahead of assault.
NEGOTIATIONS
Hamas says in a statement it has accepted the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal.
Israeli officials are now saying that the supposed ceasefire deal agreed to by Hamas is "unknown" to both the U.S. and Israel and did not come up in the conversation between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu just a few hours ago.
[TS] Gotta hand it to Hamas. They’ve had every opportunity to accept a ceasefire for months. Instead they’ve been unreasonable and dishonest. Now they pretend to want one? Clever ploy by Qatar/Hamas because it puts Israel in the position of saying “no.”
What is in the agreement?
Per Phil Stewart / Shaiel Ben-Ephraim:
It will have three phases:
PHASE ONE (42 days long): Israel will withdraw from all central areas in Gaza to locations close to the security fence. The IDF will stop overflights of Gaza for ten hours a day. 600 trucks of aid, including 50 of fuel, will enter Gaza daily.
Hamas will release 33 humanitarian hostages. However, Hamas is NOT willing to guarantee they will all be alive. In return, Israel will release the heaviest prisoners as selected by Hamas. Israel is also expected to release all Shalit deal prisoners it has taken back into custody.
Then, they will release the female IDF soldiers in exchange for 50 Palestinian prisoners each. Then Israel will release all women and male prisoners taken since October 7th, including the worst offenders.
On the 22nd day of the deal, the IDF will withdraw from the central Gaza zone, separating the north from the south. There will be no limitation on the return of evacuees from the South to their homes.
PHASE TWO (42 days long): Hamas wants an agreement to stop the war permanently in this phase. This is the main sticking point. All men left alive will be released in this phase.
PHASE THREE (42 days long): All bodies will be exchanged. A plan to rebuild Gaza over 3-5 years will be shaped. Compensation will be paid to Palestinians harmed in the war. Egypt, the US, and Qatar will guarantee that the agreement is upheld.
[TS] I’m seeing a few takes here:
This will never happen because stopping the war is a red line for Israel
Israel agreed to most of this
I’ll wait for the dust to settle. Bibi is under immense pressure to do any deal for hostages, though.
[update] BBC: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said the proposal accepted by Hamas was "far from Israel's basic requirements" but negotiations would continue.
[RELATED] Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry expresses Saudi Arabia’s warning of the dangers of the Israeli occupation forces targeting the city of Rafah.
[TS] Not a good sign for the US or those seeking “Israel normalization” from Saudi Arabia.
[UPDATE] Times of Israel: US State Dept spokesperson Mathew Miller:
United States will not support the Rafah offensive “currently envisioned by Israel.”
Has yet to see a credible plan to protect the > 1 million palestinians sheltering there
2.) FT: Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn.
European intelligence agencies warn that Russia is plotting sabotage across the continent, preparing bombings, arson, and infrastructure damage with little concern for civilian casualties. Arrests have been made in Germany and the UK for alleged Russian-backed plots, while suspected state-sponsored attacks have occurred in Sweden, Czechia, Estonia, and France. Concerns are high following the expulsion of over 600 Russian spies after the Ukraine invasion. Russia is using proxies, organized crime ties, and a new coordination strategy to reconstitute its presence. Suspicious factory fires in the UK and Germany supplying Ukraine are seen as part of a broader Russian pressure campaign on Europe.
[RELATED-ish] U.S. soldier detained in Russia and accused of stealing, officials say
The soldier, who was stationed in South Korea, traveled to Russia on his own to visit a woman he was romantically involved with, officials said.
[TS] He went to Russia on his own? Yeesh.
3.) Trump hush-money case (Day 12)
Trump racks up a 10th criminal contempt charge
Judge Merchan: “I find you in criminal contempt for the 10th time."
He doesn't find Trump in contempt for the two Cohen statements, nor the Pecker statement, but fines Trump $1k for the jury-related statement.
Merchan threatened to jail Trump if he continued to violate the gag order.
Testimony from Trump Organization employees:
Jeffrey McConney, former Trump Org. controller, testified about processing $35,000 invoices to Cohen as a reimbursement for the $130,000 hush money payment.
Deborah Tarasoff, Trump Org. accounts payable employee, testified about cutting checks from Trump's personal account and sending them to the White House for his signature.
Jurors saw invoices, company ledgers, vouchers, and checks related to the repayment of Cohen.
Reimbursement details:
Handwritten notes by former Trump Org. CFO Allen Weisselberg and McConney showed calculations for a $420,000 payment to Cohen.
The payment included reimbursements for tech services, the $130,000 wire transfer, a tax "gross-up," and a $60,000 bonus for Cohen.
McConney did not connect the $130,000 line item to the hush money deal and claimed he didn't know the details of the repayment plan.
Prosecutors' timeline:
The New York district attorney's office estimated they have about two weeks left of testimony in their case.
4.) UN Dispatch: A Genocidal Massacre is Looming in Darfur
Mark Leon Goldberg interviews Mutasim Ali, a Legal Advisor at the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, about the imminent attack on El Fasher, the largest city in Sudan's Darfur region, by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF, a re-branded Janjaweed Militia responsible for the Darfur genocide 20 years ago, has surrounded the city, and there are deep concerns for the fate of at least 800,000 people trapped there.
Ali, who is from El Fasher, believes that the consequences of an RSF attack on the city will be more catastrophic than what was seen in El Geneina, another city attacked by the RSF last summer. He cites the large population of displaced persons in El Fasher and the lack of accessible escape routes as reasons for his concern.
The Raoul Wallenberg Centre has published a report compiling evidence of ongoing genocide in Darfur perpetrated by the RSF against non-Arab groups. Despite calls from the United States, the United Nations, and other key players to prevent the attack, Ali says that people in El Fasher are scared and have nearly given up hope, as they have experienced violence and displacement consistently over the years.
5.) AXIOS (J. Bruske / S. Cai): SD Gov. Kristi Noem (R) angled for top NRA job
Gov. Kristi Noem pitched herself for a top NRA job as early as last fall, two sources told Axios.
Noem called LaPierre to advocate to be the next executive vice president or CEO. She even offered to resign early as governor.
6.) NYT: Pro-Trump Nonprofit Paid Millions to Companies Tied to Its Own Leaders.
The Conservative Partnership Institute — a cash-flush nonprofit that serves as a nerve center for Trump’s allies — has paid millions to companies run by insiders, documents show. The Institute’s three highest-paid contractors had connections to the group’s leaders or their relatives, raising concerns about self-dealing.
7.) NYT: Bankruptcy Looms for Giuliani as Spending Outpaces Income
Rudy Giuliani promised a bankruptcy court that he would limit his spending, but it didn’t take long before he broke that pledge, and by a lot.
Giuliani’s Spending: $43,000 a Month and a Lot of Credit Card Bills
[TS] Wild quote from the article to illustrate how inflated his lifestyle had gotten:
"A decade later, he and Judith Giuliani were spending $230,000 a month on their lavish lifestyle, including $7,000 on fountain pens and $12,000 on cigars."
NOT NEWS NEWS:
8). Trump, in leaked footage, brags about the “cognitive test” he took.
[CONTEXT] The test Trump took was the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), which is a screening tool for cognitive impairment, not a comprehensive IQ test or a measure of intelligence. The MoCA is designed to help doctors detect early signs of dementia, Alzheimer's disease, or other conditions that affect mental functioning.
He later boasted about “acing” said test (on multiple occasions), most notably during an interview with Fox News' Chris Wallace in July 2020.
Trump said the test was “Not easy. You know they show you first question...”
“…and that’s what the press went with.” Implying the remainder of the questions are difficult:
9.) ADL: More recorded antisemitic incidents in the USA from Oct-Dec 2023 than the other 9 months of the year:
10.) Carolina Journal: UNC faculty to withhold final grades for all until suspended protesters are re-instated
Full letter:
[TS] This is absurd.
11.) Republican former lieutenant Governor of Georgia, Geoff Duncan says he’ll be voting for Joe Biden in November.
“Unlike Trump, I’ve belonged to the GOP my entire life. This November, I am voting for a decent person I disagree with on policy over a criminal defendant without a moral compass.”
12.) Columbia University has decided to cancel its main commencement ceremony that was scheduled for May 15th.
[TS] I believe the students graduating would have enrolled during COVID, so they likely didn’t get a high school graduation either. Trump is probably praying Baron’s school cancels his…