Trumpdate (5.3.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Huawei Secretly Funds Research: Huawei, a blacklisted Chinese company, has been secretly funding research at US universities through a third-party foundation. This raises concerns about transparency and national security.
Abortion Views in the US: A new poll shows that a majority of Americans support legal abortion, with a strong partisan divide. Most states have residents who favor abortion legality.
Florida Bans Lab-Grown Meat: Florida has banned lab-grown meat, likely due to lobbying by agricultural interests.
House Antisemitism Bill Criticized: The House's Antisemitism Awareness Act is criticized for using a flawed definition that restricts free speech by labeling anti-Zionism as hate speech.
Israel-Hamas War: Tensions are high between the IDF and Prime Minister Netanyahu due to his indecisiveness on key war issues. Hamas believes they've strategically won the war by garnering international attention.
Wyoming Purges Voters: Wyoming removed 28% of its voter registrations due to inactivity in the 2022 election.
US Accuses Russia of Chemical Weapons: The US State Department officially accuses Russia of using chemical weapons in Ukraine.
FTC Accuses Exxon of Price Fixing: The FTC alleges that Exxon and Pioneer executives colluded to manipulate gas and oil prices.
Columbia Law Student Protests: Columbia Law students are using the police response to protests as a reason to cancel exams. New details emerge showing a mix of students and outsiders were arrested.
Trump Misspells FDNY: Trump misspells "FDNY" on his social media platform.
Trump Hush Money Trial: Recordings and texts presented in court suggest Trump's involvement in hush-money payments to women who allegedly had affairs with him.
Trump Refuses to Commit to Accepting Election Results: Trump would not commit to accepting the Wisconsin election results if he loses.
John Eastman Disbarred: The judge overseeing John Eastman's disbarment case denied his request to delay the ruling, resulting in his automatic suspension from practicing law.
1.) BLOOMBERG: Huawei Secretly Backs US Research, Awarding Millions in Prizes
Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant blacklisted by the US, has been secretly funding cutting-edge research at American universities, including Harvard, through the independent Washington-based Optica Foundation. The company is the sole funder of a research competition that has awarded millions of dollars since 2022, attracting proposals from scientists worldwide, including those at top US universities that have banned their researchers from working with Huawei. The secretive funding arrangement has raised concerns about the lack of transparency and potential national security risks, as some of the resulting research is likely to have both defense and commercial relevance.
2.) PRRI: Abortion Views in All 50 States: Findings
Findings from 22k interviews:
64% of Americans believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 35% believe it should be illegal in most or all cases.
There is a significant partisan divide, with 86% of Democrats supporting abortion legality compared to 36% of Republicans.
Most religious groups, except white evangelical Protestants, Latter-day Saints, and Jehovah's Witnesses, support abortion legality.
In most states, a majority of residents support abortion legality, with no state having more than 16% of residents who support a complete ban on abortion.
Abortion has become a more salient voting issue, especially for Democrats, women, and younger voters.
Most Americans, including a majority of Republicans, oppose laws that make it illegal to use or receive FDA-approved abortion pills by mail.
Support for abortion legality is higher in states with less restrictive abortion laws.
There is a connection between Christian nationalism and opposition to abortion policies, with Christian nationalism Adherents and Sympathizers less likely to support abortion legality.
[TS] I figured that was a good lead in to:
[RELATED] WSJ ran a map of abortion restrictions. Key note: Nearly half of all U.S. reproductive-age women live in states where abortion is either completely banned or banned after 6 weeks.
How well does that map onto PRRI’s map of support by state:
[TS] Pretty good!
3.) FL’s Gov Ron DeSantis (R) signs legislation to ban lab-grown meat in Florida.
DeSantis:
Global elites want to control our behavior and push a diet of petri dish meat and bugs on Americans.
says man passing law controlling people's behavior
[TS] This really does not make sense to me. For a party that decries government intervention, they sure are quick to use state power to interfere in the free market.
[UPDATE] Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA):
Pains me deeply to agree with Crash-and-Burn Ron, but I co-sign this. As a member of Senate Ag Dems and as some dude who would never serve that slop to my kids, I stand with our American ranchers and farmers.
[TS] I figured as much, but this drives it home: It’s 100% from Ag/Farm lobbies who want to ban this. I imagine if lab grown meat reaches a parity with real meat in taste — (there will likely always be a price premium) — it will probably cause ripples in the industry.
This could be a popular option for those who wrestle with the ethics of animal well being. If you could afford it — why then, choose meat? The suffering?
4.) [TS][UPDATE] On the House’s antisemitism bill.
[TS] I figured it was pretty boiler plate stuff, but I had a chance to read it and it’s actually a bad piece of legislation. Why?
The Act uses a shaky definition that restricts free speech by labeling anti-Zionism as hate speech.
You can disagree with zionism without being antisemitic. You can criticize Israel without being antisemitic.
[UPDATE] [TS] Senate doesn’t look like they’re going to pass it anyway. Sen Maj Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) says there are objections on both sides to passing the House antisemitism bill by unanimous consent.
[RELATED-ish] The Hill:
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is poised to join Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) in inviting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to deliver an address to Congress, despite tensions between the Israeli leader and many Democrats over the ongoing war in the Middle East.
5.) Israel / Hamas War
Tensions between IDF and Netanyahu:
SHORT SUMMARY:
Tensions between the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Prime Minister Netanyahu have escalated due to the latter's perceived indecisiveness on five crucial issues related to the ongoing war. These issues include the hostage deal, post-war plans, the Rafah operation, the war in the north, and the defense budget. The IDF believes that Netanyahu's lack of decision-making is paralyzing the war effort and jeopardizing the country's future, leading to whispers of a possible military coup.
LONG SUMMARY (via Shaiel Ben-Ephraim)
Tensions between the IDF and Netanyahu have become so severe that there are even some whispers of a possible military coup. Veteran and respected military correspondent Ron Ben-Yishai published a bombshell story in Ynet today.
Tensions surround Netanyahu's indecision on what the IDF believes are the five most important issues surrounding the war today:
* The hostage deal
* The day after plan
* The Rafah operation
* The war in the north
* The defense budget
The Hostage Deal: The IDF feels that ending the war now and focusing on getting the hostages back is a good idea strategically. However, they are also willing to wage this war to the end. But right now, they feel the war is being fought with one hand tied behind their backs, and every day, more hostages could die. They believe the situation would be much better if Netanyahu decided on one path.
The Day After Plan: The IDF feels that by not creating an alternate governance mechanism, all of the fighting and sacrifices it has made so far have been wasted. As soon as they leave, Hamas goes back in. This is frustrating to them since many soldiers died to take these areas that are just given up because there is no governing alternative to Hamas. The IDF is willing to create a military government or support a newly installed PA government or something of the sort. They think it is time for Netanyahu to decide.
The operation in Rafah: The IDF has an operation ready to go in Rafah and believes it is essential to do so. They also believe the operation would pressure Hamas into a hostage deal. However, they are amazed that Netanyahu has not yet given the order to clear Rafah since that will take weeks. They want Netanyahu to decide already because without going in, the hostage negotiations are dragging on, and Hamas still controls the tunnels leading to Egypt.
The war in the north: The IDF feels it is not being given the tools to bring quiet back to the north. They are concerned the new normal will be a war of attrition that doesn't allow the residents home. They believe Israel needs to either reach a ceasefire with Hamas and try to calm things diplomatically or let them go into Lebanon. They just want Netanyahu to decide.
The Defense budget: The IDF needs to know which front the government will focus on to know what to spend money on. Long-range capabilities against Iran? A military government in Gaza? A war in Lebanon? They have no idea what to plan for, what weapons to buy, and how to organize the troops.
The feeling that Netanyahu is inept and indecisive to the point of paralyzing the war is rampant in the army. These five points are the reason. Ben-Yishai compares the feeling in the army to the "generals mutiny" that occurred before the 1967 War when Levi Eshkol hesitated to attack Egypt. The IDF was considering taking steps against the Prime Minister.
That was settled by a decision to go to war. Will Netanyahu make the necessary decisions? If not, some worry the military will take matters into their own hands. They feel the future of the country is at stake.
WSJ Fate of Gaza Cease-Fire Talks Hangs on Two Hard-Liners: Netanyahu and Sinwar
Sinwar believes he has already won the war. He may be right. According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, sourced by Egyptian and Qatari diplomats who have negotiated with him, he has never been more optimistic:
According to Arab mediators dealing with Hamas, Sinwar believes that he has already won the war, whether or not he survives it, by opening the world’s eyes to the suffering of Palestinians and bringing the conflict to the forefront of global affairs.
Sinwar’s aim in the long run, the mediators say, is to lift the siege of the strip, end Israeli military pressure on Hamas and ensure the group’s survival. The group is seeking international “guarantees” for any cease-fire, another gambit to ensure its survival after the war. The U.S., Qatar, and Egypt would be the guarantors of the proposed deal, but Hamas has said that this isn’t enough, according to the mediators.
In some of the communications relayed by the military wing to Arab mediators, Sinwar indicated that time was on his side and that the longer he waited, the more international pressure built on Israel and its activities in Gaza. He is also banking on conflict within the Israeli government to eventually force Netanyahu from power.
By drawing out talks with Israel for months and carefully manipulating international opinion, Sinwar has managed to turn a tactical defeat into a strategic victory.
[RELATED] Times of Israel: UN says Gaza reconstruction to cost $30-40 billion, damage on scale unseen since WWII.
[TS] The material cost of Sinwar's war.
6.) WYOFILE: Wyoming voids 28% of its voter registrations in mandatory purge
While it’s not unusual for voter rolls to fluctuate, local election officials want residents to know that anyone who didn’t vote in the 2022 general election must register again to vote in 2024.
There are currently about 83,500 fewer registered voters in the state than at the end of 2022, a roughly 28% drop, according to data released Wednesday by the Wyoming Secretary of State’s Office.
7.) US Dept of State is officially accusing Russia of using chemical weapons in Ukraine
Use of choking agent chloropicrin would violate the chemical weapons convention (which Russia signed).
[RELATED] From the FT: How Kyiv Plans to Use American Aid
One highlight from the discussion:
As a result of Russian attacks, 50% of Ukraine's entire energy system has been damaged, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, told Foreign Policy.
"If another country experienced such scale of energy destruction, it would look much, much worse than Ukraine," Kuleba said.
8.) FTC files a redacted complaint in the Exxon/Pioneer deal - includes serious allegation of collusion on Gas/Oil price fixing.
SUMMARY from Douglas Farrar (FTC Comms):
Former Pioneer CEO Scott Sheffield would often publicly signal to American producers that they should hold back pumping more oil and gas in order to keep prices high.
But the FTC alleges he also conducted a private campaign directly with OPEC officials
The FTC has subpoena powers, and during the investigation FTC staff uncovered what appears to be a lot of attempted collusion with key oil market players.
The FTC took action after finding evidence of a senior oil exec trying to facilitate a cartel that could cost every driver at the pump & everyone taking a flight or heating their home.
FTC Chair Lina Khan makes the case for the agency's action by channeling Maya Angelou.
9.) [TS] There was more campus protest stuff but I’m taking a break.
Enjoy this video instead:
[TS] One quick update - The student editors of the Columbia Law Review have issued a statement urging the law school to cancel exams in the wake of the police operation that cleared the university's encampment, saying the "violence" has left them "irrevocably shaken" and "unable to focus."
Ingenious! It's a way for the D students to avoid receiving Ds, while simultaneously denying the A students their As.
[TS] Ok, two updates! — on the Columbia arrests (re-outsiders vs students) Per Columbia:
Out of the occupiers of Hamilton Hall at Columbia, 14 were undergraduate students, 9 graduate students, 6 from affiliate schools, 2 university employees, and the rest outsiders.
[TS] Around 40-50 arrested, so that’s about a 1/4 (25%) outsiders. Also, per The City: NYPD Officer Fired Gun Inside Columbia’s Hamilton Hall, Manhattan DA’s Office Confirms. That’s not great…
10.) [TS] Not news news but Trump on Truth Social met with the FDNY but kept typing it as NYFD.
[TS] The guy lived in NYC almost his whole damn life…
[UPDATE] He deleted the posts.
11.) [UPDATE] Trump hush-money trial
The jury in Donald Trump’s criminal trial heard audio — secretly recorded by Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen — that seemed to show Trump’s involvement in the hush-money payments to two women who allegedly had affairs with him.
In one recording, Cohen claimed that Trump hates “the fact that we did it,” referring to paying off Stormy Daniels. In another, Trump and Cohen discussed the deal with Karen McDougal.
The jury also saw texts from 2016 in which Daniels’s former lawyer acknowledged that the hush money might have helped Trump win the election.
Keith Davidson texted National Enquirer Editor-in-Chief Dylan Howard around 3 a.m. ET on the night of the 2016 election.
Davidson: "What have we done?"
Howard: "Oh my god."
Prosecutors asked the judge to hold Trump in contempt for again violating a gag order.
Trump said he can’t testify because he’s under a gag order (FACT CHECK): Not true.
12.) Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Trump refused to commit to accepting the results of Wisconsin's presidential election in November if he doesn't win and again lied that he won the state in 2020.
Trump also repeated similar language to what he said around Jan. 6: "If everything's honest, I'd gladly accept the results. If it's not, you have to fight for the right of the country."
13.) The judge who recommended John Eastman’s disbarment DENIES his urgent request to delay her ruling.
This resulted in his automatic suspension from practicing law. She cites the gravity of his misconduct and his refusal to acknowledge any wrongdoing.
[TS] Sounds like he’s prob not gettin’ his law license back…