Trumpdate (5.23.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NEWS NEWS
Economy perception: Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession and blame Biden, despite positive GDP growth and low unemployment.
Ukraine support: House Intelligence Committee urges administration to allow Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia.
Trump on contraception: Trump initially suggests potential birth control restrictions, then backtracks after backlash.
Syria war: Syria's war has killed over 300,000 people and displaced 13 million, with no end in sight after more than a decade.
Alito's flags: Justice Alito's beach house displayed an "Appeal to Heaven" flag, a symbol associated with Jan. 6 and a push for a more Christian-minded government.
Mar-a-Lago case: Judge Cannon holds hearings on Walt Nauta's selective prosecution argument and insufficient pleading for all defendants.
Two-state solution: Netanyahu rejects latest call for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Israel-Saudi agreement: After meeting with Biden's senior advisor, Herzog confirms Israel has the option to sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia.
Haley's vote: Nikki Haley says she will vote for Trump despite previously criticizing him harshly.
House floor standoff: Republicans seek to strike Rep. Jim McGovern's words about Trump's trial from the record, causing a delay.
Oil reserves: Confusion arises over the sale of gasoline from the Northeast Strategic reserve, which is separate from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Wage data: Average hourly earnings growth has slowed, with workers' wages below pre-COVID trends.
Trump-raid misinformation: FBI searches at Biden's homes also included standard deadly force policy, contrary to claims of targeting Trump.
AI robocalls: Political consultant indicted for using AI-generated Biden voice in robocalls to New Hampshire voters.
Harvard protest: Harvard Corporation rejects faculty attempt to allow sanctioned student protesters to graduate.
Trump testimony: Trump explains why he didn't testify in the hush money trial, citing a gag order and calling it a "kangaroo court."
Ogles campaign finance: Congressman Andy Ogles admits to falsely claiming he loaned $320,000 to his campaign, revising the amount to $20,000.
Hamas video: Hamas releases video of abducted female IDF soldiers, raising questions about rescue efforts and accountability.
Qualified immunity: Federal Judge Carlton Reeves challenges qualified immunity doctrine, calling for the Supreme Court to eliminate it.
Arizona indictments: Kelli Ward and her husband, former Arizona GOP chair, indicted for their role in presenting themselves as legitimate presidential electors in 2020.
1.) GUARDIAN: Majority of Americans wrongly believe US is in recession – and most blame Biden
Harris Poll highlights:
55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
7 straight quarters of positive GDP growth
49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.
US has been under 4% longer than any period since the 1960s
[TS] Might be worth unpacking some of this. “56% of Americans say the US is in a recession.” Ok, obviously GDP has not been shrinking (I’ve covered how well the US is doing vs our allies HERE #8) for reference:
So, this is obviously not entirely data driven. But I do think, generally, people feel worse about the economy (which I’ve covered a few theories on HERE #11).
People who view the data constantly are overthinking it. Most people see McDonald’s has “doubled” and it costs more to fill up a tank, ergo, recession. This polling question I think is more “vibes” than reality. ie You can "feel" the economy isn't going well for you.
However, the latter 2:
“the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year” and
“ unemployment is at a 50-year high”
Are both objectively measurable. Granted, unemployment % has more nuance than the S&P. I think this is probably the strongest evidence to the “vibecession” argument. Still…it’s difficult to ignore that a significant percentage of the populace is divorced from reality.
Derek Thompson’s case:
My position, in case it isn't clear:
High prices and rates create objective economic hardship and frustration.
Americans keep expressing opinions about this economy that are flatly, wildly wrong.
We don't have to isolate narratives (1) or (2). Both true. Both matter.
[RELATED] The WSJ had a graph of change in household net worth that likely explains #1 above:
[TS] This is still misleading because the ending uptick (ie months 38 thru 48) on Trump’s graph was entirely due to the Pandemic. But, I still think it illustrates an important measure.
2.) US House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence issued a bipartisan letter to Secretary of Defense Austin urging the administration to allow Ukraine to strike military targets inside Russia.
Full text:
[TS] This echos thoughts from Ukraine’s President — Volodymyr Zelensky, who in an interview with The Times, said the West should defend Ukraine more aggressively without fear of nuclear escalation.
[RELATED] House Speaker Mike Johnson on using American weapons to strike targets in Russia: "I think Ukraine should be allowed to wage war as they see fit. They must be able to fight back, and I think we're trying to micromanage the effort, that's not good policy for us."
[TS] I’ll be damned. I agree with Johnson.
3.) [UPDATE] on yesterday’s #8 - Trump on Contraception
During that same interview trump opened the door to birth control restrictions. The interviewer, Jon Delano, pressed Mr. Trump on whether his answer suggested he might support restrictions.
“You know, things really do have a lot to do with the states, and some states are going to have different policy than others,” Mr. Trump responded.
This was after Trump’s initial non-answer. Now, due to backlash, Trump says he wouldn’t have restrictions on birth control:
Per NYT:
But as the interview and the backlash to it rocketed around on Tuesday, Mr. Trump posted in all caps on social media that he would “never advocate imposing restrictions on birth control.” He called the reports based on his interview “a Democrat fabricated lie.”
4.) VOA: More Than A Decade on, No End in Sight for Syria's War
A protest movement that started in 2011 against the Assad regime quickly turned into a civil war that has killed more than 300,000 people and displaced more than 13 million people at home and abroad, according to the United Nations.
Other war monitors, including the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, put the death toll at 500,000 (50k of those children).
5.) [UPDATE] Looks like Alito flew another flag at a different residence.
[TS] “A second flag has hit the pole.”
Per the NYT: Another Provocative Flag Was Flown at Another Alito Home
The justice’s beach house displayed an “Appeal to Heaven” flag, a symbol carried on Jan. 6 and associated with a push for a more Christian-minded government.
Justice Alito declined to respond to questions about the beach house flag, including what it was intended to convey and how it comported with his obligations as a justice. The court also declined to respond.
The flag was also waved during Jan 6th:
A Google Street View photo taken in August 2023 shows the flag flying at the Alitos’ house.
[TS] Alito (eyes shifting back and forth): “Uh, my wife also did that too because a neighbor put up an even BIGGER sign you see….”
6.) Judge Cannon is holding two hearings today in the MAL docs case, one specific to Walt Nauta's selective prosecution argument, and one for all the Ds regarding insufficient pleading.
No hearing set for the pleading unsealed yesterday concerning Trump's motion to suppress.
[TS] Just so we're clear: Three months after it was filed, Cannon is spending the court's precious time on a motion claiming that this guy below (Nauta) was the subject of a selective and vindictive prosecution, warranting dismissal of the indictment.
7.) Netanyahu rejects latest call for a two-state solution.
[TS] This is idiotic. Unless you think the 2M Palestinians are going somewhere and unless you think the 7M Jews are going somewhere, a two-state solution is the only solution for peace.
8.) After his meeting with Biden's senior advisor, Herzog confirmed that Israel has the option to sign an agreement with Saudi Arabia.
On Tue, the WH had a meeting with President Isaac Herzog of Israel —
[PRESIDENT VS PM?] Bibi is Israel’s PM and Herzog is the President. The roles of President and Prime Minister in Israel serve different functions and carry different types of authority. The President of Israel, currently Isaac Herzog, holds a largely ceremonial role, intended to represent the nation and carry out certain formal duties such as receiving foreign diplomats and signing legislation into law.
— Herzog said: Normalization with Saudi Arabia would be a historic 'game changer.’ [TS] I hope this is being seriously considered.
9.) Haley says she’ll vote for Trump.
[TS] In a surprise to no one, Haley will vote for Trump. Here’s the clip:
Nikki Haley: “I will be voting for Trump. Having said that ... Trump would be smart to reach out to the millions of people who voted for me and continue to support me and not assume that they're just going to be with him.”
[TS] Let’s take a trip down memory lane, shall we?
NARRATOR: “She kissed the ring.”
QUOTE EXTRAVAGANZA:
“He mocked my husband's military service. If you have something to say, don't say it behind my back. Get on a debate stage and say it to my face. If you mock the service of a veteran, you don't deserve a driver's license let alone being President of the United States.”
“We need to acknowledge he let us down. He went down a path he shouldn’t have, and we shouldn’t have followed him, and we shouldn’t have listened to him. And we can’t let that ever happen again.”
“Trump is going to side with a madman [Putin] who’s made no bones about the fact he wants to destroy America.”
"Donald Trump is everything I taught my children not to do in kindergarten."
"He’s thin-skinned and easily distracted."
"He doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near the White House."
"He betrayed our allies."
"His foreign policy is a disaster."
"He failed to deliver on his promises."
"He’s not the leader we need."
"His comments about veterans are disgusting."
"He praises dictators."
"Trump’s unhinged and dangerous."
"He has diminished since 2016."
"Trump brings chaos and instability."
[TS] What’s the refund window on these?
10.) There's was a standoff on the House floor. Republicans tried to take down Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA) words because he talked about the Trump trial in a way they believe was out of bounds for house debate.
Here’s what he said:
[UPDATE] After an extended delay, the Chair rules that McGovern's words are out of order, seemingly saying members cannot even talk about criminal charges against Trump on the House floor. The words below were stricken from the Record.
11.) Confusion on strategic oil reserves.
[TS] I’ve seen a lot of stories going around like: “Biden to sell off 1M barrels of gasoline held in reserve to keep prices low before election.”
This is being parroted by dozens of members of Congress like Speaker Mike Johnson:
Why is this misleading?
Summary from Patrick De Haan:
The oil reserve aka SPR, has been rising & is being refilled. It will continue to rise in the coming months. The (Northeast Strategic) gasoline reserve, the only in the nation, is being sold & closed.
They are very different.
The SPR is definitely needed and isn’t going anywhere. The NSGR was not needed, costly, and not so strategic. As an analyst, we absolutely need the SPR. Not the NSGR. Gasoline has a shelf life, which is why having such a reserve is costly and challenging.
Also, this was not just Biden’s idea. Trump’s admin had the same idea:
Why is Biden doing it now? It was a mandate by Congress in March (when R’s controlled the house). Per AP:
For reference on SPR:
[RELATED] Oil production data is out (latest month is Feb). Most US oil produced of any February ever
12.) Wage Data from Jason Furman
Average hourly earnings growth has been drifting down recently. Was strong for much of 2023 but negative three months in a row--zero for the last 6 months (I use a 6 month line instead of my usual 3 due to high volatility).
Overall +0.7% since pre-COVID.
No matter how you look at it average hourly workers for all private sector workers are below trend. They're up at a 0.2% annual rate since pre-COVID, were growing much faster before then.
A lot of that is higher-paid workers not doing as well.
Excluding managers, average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers is up at a 0.7% annual rate. That is well below the pace for the two years prior to COVID but at the (slower) pace that prevailed in the five years before COVID.
[TS] I think the short is: Wages are higher, but not as high as the pre-pandemic trend line would have forecasted. And then we get other graphs like this
13.) [UPDATE] On Trump-raid misinformation (re-deadly force)
FBI SEARCHES AT PRESIDENT BIDEN'S HOMES ALSO INCLUDED DEADLY FORCE POLICY (which is standard)
A person familiar with the Hur investigation confirms that the standard Department of Justice policy statement regarding the use of deadly force was also included in the operations order for the searches at President Biden’s residences in Delaware.
[RELATED] MTG doubles down:
[TS] Lunatic.
14.) WMUR: Political consultant indicted for AI robocalls with fake Biden voice made to New Hampshire voters
Deep fake robocall imitating Biden during the NH primary leads to indictment
Steve Kramer, the political consultant then-working for Dean Phillips who admitted to me that he commissioned the Biden deepfake robocall, has been indicted.
15.) The Harvard Corporation has rejected the faculty attempt to allow sanctioned student protestors to graduate:
[CONTEXT/ BACKSTORY]
The issue began with a 20-day pro-Palestine encampment protest in Harvard Yard, leading to the suspension of five students and probation for over 20 others. The university's disciplinary actions included preventing 13 seniors from graduating.
In a regular meeting Monday, the Faculty of Arts and Sciences voted to reinstate the 13 students to a list of those receiving degrees this year. There were 115 faculty members in attendance, a Harvard spokesman said.
Professor Ryan Enos’ comments on the faculty vote in the Harvard Crimson:
[TS] I guess not!
Harvard Corp Stmt Snippet:
“Today, we have voted to confer 1,539 degrees to Harvard College students in good standing. Because the students included as the result of Monday’s amendment are not in good standing, we cannot responsibly vote to award them degrees at this time.”
16.) Trump on WABC Radio on why he didn’t testify:
[TS] :
17.) NASHVILLE NEWS CHANNEL 5: Congressman Andy Ogles (R-TN) admits his claims to have loaned $320,000 to his campaign were not true
NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — Tennessee Congressman Andy Ogles filed 11 amendments to his campaign finance reports Wednesday, acknowledging that his claims for the last two years to have loaned $320,000 to his campaign were not true.
On the 11 amendments filed Wednesday with the Federal Election Commission, revising reports dating back to April 2022, Ogles says that he actually loaned his campaign $20,000, instead of the $320,000 that he had previously claimed.
18.) More Hamas video on hostages - this time for young female IDF abducted.
[TS] The video was released by the families. I won’t post the vid (it’s not overly graphic or anything). Still frames:
'You're so beautiful.. the girls who can get pregnant':
Commentary on the video release:
Months after this disaster no one has been held accountable for what happened at Nahal Oz. None of the chain of command has answered for how an entire base could be overrun for hours. The video shows how the terrorists had all the time in the world to wander around, pray, and take the women slowly to stolen jeeps.
It would be good if the video helped mobilize support to get the women released. Sadly, it's unclear if that will be the case. It appears it will be used for wider discussions but not to rescue the women. More should have been done on October 7 to rescue them, and more should have been done since, and more can be done now.
19.) Popular Information: Qualified Immunity challenged by a Federal Judge, Carlton Reeves.
It has received scant media attention, but it is a very big deal. In a decision praised by legal scholars for its "power and beauty," Reeves establishes why the doctrine of qualified immunity, which can protect law enforcement officials sued for misconduct, is "unsupportable as a matter of history, text, and policy." Reeves calls on the Supreme Court to acknowledge its mistake and eliminate the doctrine of qualified immunity entirely.
[TS] Will provide updates if/when they come down the pike. No doubt this ruling will be appealed. Could make it to SCOTUS potentially setting up a landmark case that could fundamentally change the relationship between law enforcement officers and the public.
20.) [TS] A little Shot-Chaser to end.
SHOT
CHASER
BACKGROUND:
Kelli Ward, the former chair of the Arizona Republican Party, and her husband, Michael Ward, have been indicted as part of a group of 18 people charged in connection with a scheme to present themselves as Arizona's legitimate presidential electors in the 2020 election. They face charges of conspiracy, fraud, and forgery for their role in attempting to falsely certify that Donald Trump won Arizona's electoral votes, despite Joe Biden's victory in the state. The indictment is part of a broader investigation into the efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in several states