Trumpdate (5.2.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
College protests: Universities are disbanding pro-Palestinian protests, with some reports of "outside agitators." Counterprotestors attacked a UCLA encampment, and protesters criticized police response.
Israel-Hamas negotiations: Netanyahu refuses to end the war with Hamas, threatening invasion if demands aren't met. Saudis push for a US deal excluding Israel.
Russian strikes on Kharkiv region, Ukraine, leave two dead and six injured.
Florida's near-total 6-week abortion ban takes effect, with clinics seeing surge in demand before the deadline.
Arizona senate votes to repeal 1864 near-total abortion ban.
Consumer confidence drops to 21-month low due to food and gas prices, despite robust economy.
Law firm defending Trump seeks to withdraw from pregnancy discrimination case due to "irreparable breakdown" in relationship.
Study finds even brief anger is bad for cardiovascular health.
Secret billionaire dinner hosted by Musk and Sacks suggests Silicon Valley money may flow to Trump.
Gateway Pundit employees expressed credibility concerns about contributors, court filing shows.
GOP Hill staffers doubt Trump's mental and physical acuity.
Trump admits asking to go to Capitol on Jan. 6, contradicting earlier Republican claims.
Study finds $6.3B public housing revitalization reduced poverty but displaced some residents.
6 House Freedom Caucus members join Democrats to derail Mining Regulatory Clarity Act.
Misleading claim that DOJ official lied about expunged domestic violence arrest record.
Famine looms in Sudan as civil war hinders aid, people resort to eating soil and leaves.
1.) [UPDATE] College Protests
[TS] In short, it seems most universities are at the end of their patience and have let the police disband the protests.
COLUMBIA: Per CBS interview with NYC Mayor Adams (D): a “substantial number” of the pro-Palestinian protesters arrested Tuesday night were not CUNY or Columbia University students, but rather “outside agitators.”
Not seeing any significant injuries from the building clearing - good news!
[UPDATE] MSNBC pressed Adams on exactly how many were outside agitators (because the faculty, staff and students say they knew the students in the building) - Adams said there were 2 confirmed, and told MSNBC to reach out to the "intelligence division" for more information.
[TAKEAWAY] Seems like we should be wary of early reporting of “outside agitators” from these protest arrests.
ASU: Encampment cleared, 72 arrests made at pro-Palestinian protest at Arizona State University Officials said about 80% of those arrested were not ASU students, faculty or staff. ([TS] based on the above, maybe we take this with a grain of salt)
UCLA: 100+ pro-Israel counterprotestors attacked the UCLA
pro-Palestinian encampment:
[TS] Any vigilante justice is totally unacceptable. UCLA officials share a lot of the blame here. It’s their responsibility to diffuse situations like this. Even though police were there, they clearly were told to stand by vs intervene (see last clip).
[UPDATE / UCLA] Fox’s Bill Melugin: The anti-Israel protesters at UCLA just held a press conference where they said they were victims of a “life threatening assault” at the hands of “Zionists” Tue night. They complained that police didn’t do enough to intervene, however, their demands include “abolish policing”.
[TS] Oy vey….
[RELATED / UCLA] Fox obtained a Google Doc with a list of needs that protestors at the UCLA camp are requesting: Vegan & gluten free food, “super bright” flashlights w/ strobe, rope & zip ties, helmets, shields, & wood, Lotion, “NO sunscreen,” knee & elbow pads etc.:
[TS] Ironic that these folks are using Google Docs when one of the companies that the protestors have been demanding colleges divest from is Google, which does business in Israel. [SIDE NOTE]: “No bagels?” I wonder what that’s about…
On the other hand - what’s with the “NO sunscreen”?”
[RELATED] More NYPD arrests last night at City College vs Columbia. No network cameras at City College. One is an Ivy League college & other is a public college serving mostly local students.
[RELATED 2] The House passes “Antisemitism Awareness Act”
2.) Israel War Negotiations
CNN’s Barak Ravid: Netanyahu told Blinken during their meeting yesterday he won't accept a deal that will include ending the war. He said if Hamas doesn't drop this demand there will be no deal and Israel will invade Rafah, per Israeli and U.S. officials
[TS] Israel has been very clear that this is their red line. Hamas has been offered many extended ceasefires with ridiculously generous prisoner-for-hostage exchange terms. A full end of the war thats leaves Hamas ruling Gaza has never been on the table.
[RELATED] Guardian: Saudis push for ‘plan B’ that excludes Israel from key deal with US
SHORT SUMMARY:
US-Saudi draft deal: defense pact, civil nuclear help, AI sharing. Saudis want bilateral deal, excluding Israel. Would normalize Israel ties if 2-state solution accepted. US aims to counter China/Russia, but faces Congress opposition due to Saudi human rights issues. Needs Senate approval to succeed.
LONG SUMMARY:
The US and Saudi Arabia have drafted agreements on security and technology-sharing, which were initially intended to be linked to a broader Middle East settlement involving Israel and the Palestinians. However, due to the lack of a ceasefire in Gaza and Israel's resistance to the creation of a Palestinian state, the Saudis are pushing for a more modest "Plan B" that excludes Israel.
Under Plan B, the US and Saudi Arabia would sign bilateral agreements on a defense pact, assistance in building a Saudi civil nuclear energy industry, and high-level sharing in AI and other emerging technologies. Saudi Arabia would offer Israel normalization of diplomatic relations in return for Israeli acceptance of the two-state solution, but the completion of the US-Saudi deals would not depend on agreement from the Israeli government.
The Biden administration hopes this deal will cement a strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia and keep Chinese and Russian influence at bay. However, it is unclear whether the administration and Congress would accept this "less-for-less" outcome. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has continued to link a US-Saudi deal to Saudi-Israeli normalization and progress towards a Palestinian state.
The nuclear part of the US-Saudi deal could allow Saudi Arabia a conversion plant for turning refined uranium powder into a gas, but not initially enrich uranium gas on its own territory. The defense pact would involve a formal commitment to the territorial defense of Saudi Arabia, and the AI part would involve loosening US export controls on computer chips used in AI development tools.
Some argue that binding Saudi Arabia to the US in a strategic alliance, marginalizing Russia and China in the region, would be a significant win for the Biden administration. However, opposition in Congress is likely, given the kingdom's poor human rights record and the lack of commitments from Saudi Arabia on China and Iran
[TS] I do not see US accepting a Saudi nuclear program.
[RELATED] Per Shaiel Ben-Ephraim:
Netanyahu has refused the IDF Chief of Staff's request for a cabinet discussion on Israel's overall strategy. The army feels hampered by a lack of political and diplomatic planning, making it difficult to plan operations effectively. A military source suggests that tactical achievements are not translating into strategic ones, leading to an endless cycle that drains resources.
Netanyahu's resistance to setting a strategy may be due to several factors: A) Any strategy would upset either the US and Gantz or Ben-Gvir and Smotrich. B) His primary focus is on political and personal survival. C) His goal of keeping Hamas in power in Gaza to avoid a Palestinian state is unacceptable to most, except Smotrich. D) Avoiding clear goals means he cannot be accused of failing to achieve them.
However, by refusing to set a clear strategy, Netanyahu is making it impossible for Israel to achieve its strategic objectives.
[SEMI-RELATED] Right-wing extremists in Israel destroyed flour shipments headed into the Gaza Strip:
[TS] Abhorrent behavior. It’s wasteful, wrong and undermines claims of unhindered international humanitarian aid being allowed in. They should be arrested immediately.
3.) KYIV POST: Kharkiv Region Under Attack: Russian Strike with Guided Bombs Leaves Two Dead and Six Injured
Russian strikes hit Kharkiv and Zolochiv, causing casualties and damage. In Kharkiv, an explosion occurred on the outskirts, damaging ten private households. In Zolochiv, guided aerial bombs struck a car and a private house, killing two civilians and injuring six others, including an 11-year-old boy. Administrative premises, cars, and a house were also damaged. The situation in Kharkiv is worsening, with regular air raids, power outages, and water supply interruptions.
4.) FL’s near-total abortion ban took effect Wed.
A new six-week abortion ban in Florida took effect on Wednesday, transforming the state from having the fewest restrictions in the South to nearly banning the procedure. Clinics are seeing a surge in demand before the deadline, while activists inform about accessing abortion pills by mail. In November, voters will decide on a referendum to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Democrats see this as a winning issue, while Republicans welcome the ban. Exceptions to the law include rape, incest, human trafficking, and risks to the woman's life or health. Clinics tried expanding hours to accommodate patients before the ban.
[TS] Good story in The Atlantic about the clinics
[UPDATE] Biden releases statement about ban:
[SEMI-RELATED] Trump thanks SCOTUS for overturning Roe at recent rally (likely trying to butter up justices to give him absolute immunity - which is unlikely):
5.) [UPDATE] By a vote of 16-14 the Arizona state senate votes to REPEAL the 1864 near total ban on abortions. Two republicans joined with democrats to pass the bill.
[TS] That was the final hurdle - It now goes to Governor Hobbs (D) who has said she will sign it.
6.) MARKET WATCH: Consumer confidence drops to 21-month low due to worries about food and gas prices
The index fell to 97.0 a 21 month low. The index measuring consumers' current sentiment fell to a five-month low of 142.9, indicating potential recession fears. Despite this, the economy remains robust, but inflation and high interest rates have dampened consumer confidence. Consumers are also worried about a softening labor market. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 fell slightly in response to the news.
[TS] Has anyone every done a “study” or article/ graph showing three data points over time:
News on Econ (% good vs bad)
Econ datapoints (GDP/Unemployment etc.)
Consumer confidence/feelings about economy
I wonder how well these three correlate (or don’t). They seem decoupled now.
7.) NYT: Law Firm Defending Trump Seeks to Withdraw From a Long-Running Case
The firm, LaRocca Hornik, has represented Donald Trump’s political operation in numerous suits dating to his first presidential run, including a pregnancy discrimination case in New York.
A law firm that has long defended Trump's campaign and businesses has asked to withdraw from a pregnancy discrimination case due to an "irreparable breakdown" in their relationship. The move comes after the court ordered the campaign to turn over complaints of sexual harassment and discrimination. Trump faces multiple legal challenges, and the firm's withdrawal is part of a pattern of lawyers cutting ties with him. The judge has ordered the firm to continue representing the campaign for now.
8.) JAHA: Even brief anger is bad for your blood vessels (and cardiovascular health) - results from a randomized trial.
[TS] Did we need any more evidence that social media is bad for our minds/health?
9.) PUCK NEWS: A secret billionaire dinner party in Hollywood, convened by Elon Musk and David Sacks, presages a major political realignment as Silicon Valley money turns against Biden and begins flowing to Donald Trump.
Elon Musk and David Sacks had a fancy dinner party in Los Angeles earlier this month to talk politics and Joe Biden. Guests included Rupert Murdoch, Steven Mnuchin, Peter Thiel, Travis Kalanick and Michael Milken.
Musk has expressed feeling deeply unnerved by America’s migrant crisis—a fear that has driven his rush into Republican politics—and the issue was a key topic of discussion at the dinner.
One person briefed on the dinner by multiple attendees said they were told that the discussion, in large part, coalesced around how to raise money to beat back the Democrats nationally.
10.) GUARDIAN: Workers at far-right site Gateway Pundit feared credibility issues, filing shows
Lawyers for Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss, election workers suing website for defamation, made disclosure in April court filing
Gateway Pundit employees expressed concerns about contributor credibility and plagiarism, a court filing revealed. The far-right website is being sued for defamation by two Georgia election workers. Messages show staff doubted contributors like Jordan Conradson, who wrote false stories about the workers. A lawyer warned against using Kevin Moncla, a "known fabricator," as a source. The site declared bankruptcy, delaying the case and potentially preventing further evidence from surfacing.
[TS] A quick anecdote on Jordan Conradson, from Robbie Sherwood (Comms Dir for AZ House Dems):
Jordan Conradson was so embedded with the AZ Senate GOP Caucus that he suited up for their team in the annual House vs Senate softball game. As he came to the plate to bat, it must have dawned on them that this wasn’t a good look (there were real reporters in the crowd) and they pulled him back into the dugout.
11.) PUNCHBOWL NEWS: GOP Hill staffers doubt Trump’s mental and physical acuity.
[TS] Can you imagine if this story was going the other way? It would dominate the news cycle for a week.
12.) Omission from Trump at a rally in Wisco.
Trump said at his rally that he did, in fact, ask his Secret Service driver on Jan. 6 to take him to the Capitol.
"I sat in the back. And you know what I did say? 'I’d like to go down there.' ... They said 'Sir, it’s better if you don’t.'
[CONTEXT]: His driver told investigators Trump was adamant about going and was frustrated when he wasn't allowed. Testimony to the Jan. 6 committee also showed the mad scramble this caused among security agencies while also responding to threat to Pence/Capitol.
[TS] Much of the press fixated on a disputed anecdote about Trump "lunging" for the wheel, but this part of the story was far more important; the point is Trump wanted to join rioters at the Capitol. Republicans called Hutchinson a liar after she revealed this, but she wasn't lying
[RELATED] Highlights from Trump’s rallies in WI/MI:
Said “Three years ago, we were a great nation”
[CONTEXT] Biden was president.
Brought up the $91M defamation payment for Jean Carroll “I didn’t defame anybody.”
Is he going to get sued (again - again)?
13.) [TS] Interesting paper on Neighborhood Revitalization and Residential Sorting
Authors Matthew Staiger, Giordano Palloni, John Voorheis
SUMMARY:
What is the impact of the US government's $6.3 billion investment in revitalizing public housing projects between 1993 and 2010, focusing on the HOPE VI Revitalization program?
Key findings:
The program reduced poverty rates in targeted neighborhoods by 8 percentage points, mainly due to a reduction in public housing units and an influx of higher-income, non-subsidized residents.
The study estimates the effect of the program on exposure to neighborhood poverty for four distinct groups of subsidized renters: a. Original residents: Most moved away and only benefited slightly from lower-poverty neighborhoods. b. New subsidized renters: The main beneficiaries, as they moved into revitalized neighborhoods with lower poverty rates. c. Voucher holders: Replaced some public housing units and almost certainly ended up in lower-poverty neighborhoods. d. Subsidized renters in other neighborhoods: Experienced small increases in poverty due to the displacement of poor families from revitalized areas.
Cities that revitalized half of their public housing stock reduced the average neighborhood poverty rate among all subsidized renters by 4.1 percentage points, with 68% of the effect driven by new residents.
Projects that retained more public housing had smaller reductions in neighborhood poverty.
The study also highlights three considerations for place-based policies:
Low-income households in distressed neighborhoods move often, making it difficult to target specific people.
The program increased housing prices in surrounding areas, displacing low-income households without subsidized housing. Providing housing subsidies (vouchers) can prevent this price-driven displacement.
The program had a large upfront cost but provided lasting benefits. The cumulative benefits to subsidized renters exceed the upfront costs when considered over a time horizon of 11.2 years or more.
Conclusion: The Revitalization program achieved its goal of enabling subsidized renters to live in lower-poverty neighborhoods, which may improve economic mobility for children, a topic for future research.
14.) 6 members of the House Freedom Caucus joined with all Democrats to derail the Mining Regulatory Clarity Act, as the House approved a motion to recommit the bill.
Biggs AZ, Bishop NC, Crane AZ, Gaetz FL, Good VA, and Luna FL.
The bills language:
This bill sets forth a process to allow mine operations to use, occupy, and conduct operations (e.g., construction of roads and other mining infrastructure activity) on public land regardless of whether a mineral deposit has been discovered on the land.
The criticize: It could upend public land management, allowing private speculators to influence the use of public lands with little or no mineral potential.
15.) National Review: Radical DOJ Civil Rights Head Kristen Clarke Lied to Senate During Confirmation Process [TS] Misleading
[CONTEXT] In a written questionnaire from Republican Sen. Tom Cotton for the record before her Senate confirmation (which happened on Mar 8th 2022), Clarke answered “no” to a question asking whether, “since becoming a legal adult, have you ever been arrested for or accused of committing a violent crime against any person?”
However, Clark had previously been arrested for slashing her exe’s finger.
Why is it misleading?
It turns out she was a victim of years-long domestic abuse and chose not to disclose an expunged (meaning it was removed from her record and no longer exists) arrest record from that period during the Senate confirmation process.
Clarke issued a statement:
“Nearly 2 decades ago, I was subjected to years-long abuse and domestic violence at the hands of my ex-husband,” Clarke wrote in the statement on Wednesday.
“This was a terrorizing and traumatizing period that I have sought to put behind me to promote my personal health, healing and well-being. The physical and emotional scars, the emotional abuse and exploitation, and the lying are things that no woman or mother should ever have to endure,” Clarke said.
“When given the option to speak about such traumatic incidents in my life, I have chosen not to,” Clarke wrote. “I didn’t believe during my confirmation process and I don’t believe now that I was obligated to share a fully expunged matter from my past.”
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) criticized Clarke after the expunged arrest was reported by The Daily Signal and picked up by other outlets:
“She lied under oath during her confirmation proceedings, and should resign,” the Utah Republican said on X.
[TS] Punishing someone for an expunged record undermines the purpose of expungement, which is to provide a second chance and remove barriers to employment, housing, and other opportunities that a criminal record may pose.
I might do an entire article about justice reform in the US…
16.) REUTERS: As famine looms in Sudan, the hungry eat soil and leaves
Nearly five million people are close to famine as the country’s civil war passes the one-year mark. Aid officials say the warring parties – the army and the Rapid Support Forces – are looting aid or blocking it from reaching areas where starvation is taking hold. But ‘the world’s largest hunger crisis’ is drawing little global attention.
[TS] Tough story to read.
