Trumpdate (5.17.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Stock Market: The DOW breaks 40,000 for the first time in history, despite Trump's 2020 warning of a crash under Biden.
Texas Pardon: Governor Greg Abbott pardons Daniel Perry, who was convicted of murder for killing Garrett Foster during a 2020 BLM protest.
Alito Controversy: Days after Jan. 6, an upside-down American flag, a "Stop the Steal" symbol, was displayed at Justice Alito's home.
Gaza Aid: A massive U.S. dock to help deliver aid to Gaza is completed, while a Palestinian truck driver delivering aid was attacked by Israeli settlers.
City Populations: Census releases city population estimates, showing growth and decline trends across the U.S.
Tax Policy: Trump and Biden are set to compete over expiring tax provisions, with significant implications for the budget and economy.
Trump Trial: House GOP members flock to Trump's trial, with Rep. Matt Gaetz claiming they were there to say things Trump couldn't.
GDP Growth: U.S. GDP growth outpaces other G7 countries, with a 7.6% per capita increase.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Housing Pipeline: U.S. multifamily housing completions are high, but starts have fallen below pre-COVID levels as interest rates rise.
ACA Enrollment: Affordable Care Act Marketplace enrollment hits a record high, with the highest growth in red states.
Affordability Maps: Maps show home affordability and cost of living across the U.S.
Wages vs. Inflation: Wages are now consistently growing faster than grocery prices, but voter frustration with inflation persists.
Trump Stock: Devin Nunes calls for investigation into the tumble of Trump Media stock, claiming a Biden conspiracy.
Personal Satisfaction: Gallup poll shows Americans' satisfaction with their personal life remains steady despite external events.
China Tariffs: Biden's new Chinese tariffs are estimated to generate $15B in tax revenue over the next decade.
NEWS NEWS
1.) The DOW breaks 40,000 for the first time in history.
During a 2020 presidential debate Trump said that “the stock market will crash” if Biden is elected:
2.) Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) has pardoned Daniel Perry.
[CONTEXT]
Incident: On July 25, 2020, Daniel Perry, an Army sergeant, shot and killed Garrett Foster during a Black Lives Matter protest in Austin, Texas. Foster was carrying an AK-47 rifle, and Perry claimed he acted in self-defense after Foster pointed the rifle at him.
Background: Perry was working as a ride-share driver and entered an area where the protest was taking place. Tensions escalated, leading to the fatal shooting.
Trial Evidence:
Perry's legal defense argued that he fired in self-defense fearing for his life.
Prosecutors presented evidence of Perry’s prior hostile messages against protesters, suggesting a predisposition towards violence against them:
In a tweet from earlier in July 2020, in response to someone discussing protesters blocking roads, Perry reportedly wrote, "If I encounter these protesters, I will shoot them."
“It is official, I am a racist because I do not agree with people acting like animals at the zoo.”
Perry compared the Black Lives Matter movement to "a zoo full of monkeys that are freaking out flinging their shit."
In a different context, he mentioned, “might go to Dallas to shoot looters”
“Too bad we can’t get paid for hunting Muslims in Europe.”
"I might have to kill a few people on my way to work, they are rioting outside my apartment complex"
In a conversation, when another person said, “Can you catch me a negro daddy,” Perry responded with, “That is what I am hoping.”
"When I am in Dallas, no protestors go near me or my car."
He questioned why no "looters have been shot yet." in Texas
He had searched for terms like "protestors in Seattle get shot"
Witness accounts varied, with some supporting Perry’s claim and others contradicting it.
Conviction: In November 2022, Perry was convicted of murder. The jury found that the use of deadly force was not justified.
Sentencing: Perry was subsequently sentenced to 25 years for murder.
[TS] One thing to point out - you’ll see a lot of news saying “he drove into protestors” implying he actually drove his car into people. That is not what happened. He drove into an area where the protest was taking place, but there is no evidence that he hit any protesters with his vehicle.
ABBOTT’S STATEMENT:
[TS] Hard to see this as a sound decision.
Ronald Brownstein makes a good point:
Abbotts pledge, now fulfilled, to pardon Perry after his conviction in a blue county continues the trend, powerfully evident in Trump trial, of Republicans increasingly arguing that not only prosecutors in blue jurisdictions are biased vs them, but so are juries of ordinary citizens.
In that way, Abbott pardon, like parade of GOP officials denouncing Manhattan (or Atlanta) Trump trial, is a form of soft secession: the underlying argument is that only red institutions can be trusted to judge Republicans. Comes as red states are openly defying feds on Title IX.
3.) NYT: At Justice Alito’s House, a ‘Stop the Steal’ Symbol on Display
Days after Jan. 6, just before Biden's inauguration, and while the Supreme Court was still contending with a 2020 election case, the Alito home flew a "Stop the Steal" symbol: an upside-down American flag.
SUMMARY:
After the 2020 election, amidst false claims by some Trump supporters that the election was stolen, an upside-down American flag—a sign of distress—appeared outside Supreme Court Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr.'s home. This occurred while the Supreme Court was considering election-related cases. Justice Alito stated that his wife placed the flag in response to a neighbor's offensive signage, not as a political statement.
[TS] Alito doesn’t deny the flag was flying upside down, doesn’t deny its meaning, doesn’t express any disapproval for it and doesn’t disavow it. How did this story stay buried for 3 years?
Also, he sure was quick to throw his wife under the bus:
[TS] Not really great that of the 9 Supreme Court justices two of them were actively sympathetic with Trump’s attempt to overturn the election results thru extralegal means.
The spouse of Thomas (Ginni Thomas) was actively conspiring with Mark Meadows to overturn the results of the 2020 election
Now Alito was flying the American flag upside down to show his solidarity with the Big Lie.
4.) NBC: A massive U.S. dock to help deliver aid to Gaza is completed
The dock in Gaza, designed to provide humanitarian aid to the people of the Strip, has been completed. The IDF stands ready to secure the perimeter in a complex ring of security that will ensure the safe unpacking of wares and distribution throughout Gaza.
[AID RELATED] A Palestinian truck driver was attacked by Israeli settlers near a West Bank outpost when they mistakenly assumed he was carrying aid to Gaza. The mob sacked & pillaged the cargo. The driver was taken to hospital
[TS] Disgraceful. Israel needs to get this under control.
[ISRAEL RELATED-ish] Turkey’s President Erdogan releases a whacko statement about Israel:
“Don’t assume that Israel will stop in Gaza. If not stopped, this rogue state, this terrorist state, will sooner or later set its sights on Turkey with its delusions about a promised land”
5.) Census' city population estimates are out:
Cincyc9 put together an interactive map of the data:
[POPULATION RELATED] Pop growth rate is declining.
6.) SEMAFOR: Trump and Biden are competing to quarterback the Super Bowl of tax policy
SUMMARY:
The upcoming presidencies of Joe Biden or Donald Trump are poised to engage in a significant legislative battle over expiring tax provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act. This looming conflict over taxes is expected to be a monumental lobbying struggle, influencing business, climate policy, and the national deficit. The outcome will significantly depend on whether the government remains divided and could drive unexpected shifts in both parties' positions on fiscal policies.
[TS] Big implications over 10yrs. Key part here:
“Depending on the proposal’s details, [extending TCJA below $400k] alone could cost anywhere from $2 trillion to $3 trillion, according to an analysis for Semafor by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.”
[RELATED] Whoever is elected President later this year is not going to be in office when the Medicare (HI) and Social Security (OASI) trust funds are depleted. But they will be in office and immediately required to deal with many other fiscal challenges.
Upcoming policy next term:
7.) House GOP members flock to Trump’s trial
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) says they were there to say the things Trump couldn’t:
[TS] This picture is something:
Gaetz puts out this tweet:
[TRIAL RELATED] Per MSNBC: x-Trump DOJ official Jeffrey Clark — the lawyer central to Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election — has been spotted in the overflow room at Trump's criminal trial.
8.) US GDP growth vs G7
PER CAPITA GROWTH STATS
US: +7.6%
ITALY: +4.9% (thru Q4)
JAPAN: +1.6%
FRANCE: +0.0% (thru Q4)
UK: -1.3%
GERMANY: -1.4% (thru Q4)
CANADA: -2.8% (thru Q4)
Map curtesy of Joey Politano:
NOT NEWS NEWS
9.) US Multifamily Housing Pipeline
[TS] Obviously a topic I’ve covered in depth. See:
So I think it’s relevant to get some data on this. Data per Census Bureau. Maps per Joel Politano:
US multifamily housing completions are running at some of the highest levels since the 1980s as the backlog of projects started in the early pandemic finish construction, while multifamily housing starts have now fallen a bit below the pre-COVID levels as interest rates bite.
There are still more than 1M multifamily units permitted or under construction in the US, but that pipeline is now shrinking by 15-20k units per month
10.) KFF: Recent Health Insurance Coverage Enrollment (re-ACA) highest in Red States
In 2024, Affordable Care Act (ACA) Marketplace enrollment hit a new record high, reaching over 21 million people, almost double the 11 million people enrolled in 2020. This growth can be largely attributed to enhanced subsidies made available by the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) in 2021 and renewed under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). These enhanced subsidies significantly reduced premium payments across the board for ACA Marketplace enrollees – including providing 100% premium subsidies for the lowest-income enrollees – and made some middle-income people who had previously been priced out of coverage newly eligible for financial assistance.
[HEALTHCARE RELATED-ish] Hung Cao, a Virginia GOP Senate candidate:
“No one in the United States is like ‘oh my gosh, I will die if I don’t have health care.’”
11.) [TS] You want more maps? I’ll give you more maps!
Why not? This is a map-heavy post. Here’s some more:
Home Affordability
STACKED UP AGAINST COST OF LIVING:
12.) Wages are now consistently growing faster than grocery prices:
[TS] CBO also found that incomes have grown faster than prices for the poorest quintile. (And the other four quintiles too)
[TS] So what explains every poll on voter frustration with inflation. I think there are likely a number of reasons. Here’s my best guess at three:
Psychological: Inflation compounds, so the prices continue to build on one another. However, wages also compound. Even if wages outpaced inflation, most people will only feel the prices. It’s the old adage (that I made up):
“The burn hurts worse than the balm heals.”
Also, one variable (wages) has agency: “*I* got a raise because I’m smart and great at my job!”
Whereas inflation is something happening to you (outside of your control).
Population %’s: Even though the data (economy wide) supports that wages outpaced inflation (so in real dollars, purchasing power is actually *up*) that doesn’t mean everyone got that deal. ie
If even 20% of the population got the short end of the wage/inflation stick, or if 20% bought houses/cars at higher rates — that’s a *lot* of people that are going to be upset and remember “life before.”
Rate Increases: The other variable to consider. Interest rate increases mean that buying the same things as before with a loan (cars, houses etc.) will cost more because you’re paying more on interest. Consequently, buying power will be less on big dollar purchases.
13.) MTN: Devin Nunes Calls for Jim Jordan to Investigate Trump Stock Tumble
Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes says he has hundreds of thousands of smaller MAGA investors in Trump Media, and they are calling him asking why the stock is tanking, so he filed a complaint with the SEC and says Biden is conspiring with Wall Street bankers to screw him.
14.) GALLUP: American’s Satisfaction with Their Personal Life:
[TS] This is hilarious. It never changes. Recession, COVID - nothing! There’s about 20% of the population that is just constantly seething.
15.) Biden’s new Chinese Tariffs get a Tax price tag ($15B over 10yrs)
Per CRFB: $15B tax revenue over the next decade
[TS] Another component of this I was noodling on. Why is China “cheating or doing something “wrong” by producing lots of stuff? I think this is probably more at the heart of it:
The real conflict is a domestic one between consumers of cheap foreign goods (the majority of the population) and the fewer but geographically concentrated producers of import competing goods