CPI Report: Overall CPI down to 3.36% YoY, Core CPI down to 3.62% YoY; inflation expected to remain between 3-4% in 2024.
Slovak PM Assassination Attempt: Slovak PM Robert Fico shot, suspect in custody; attack believed to be politically motivated.
Gazprom Losses: Russia's Gazprom recorded a $6.8bn loss in 2023, the first since 1999, as curbing gas exports to EU backfired.
Overdose Deaths: Drug overdose deaths fell 3% in 2023, the first decline since the pandemic, but still remain high.
Trump Fundraiser: Oil billionaires Harold Hamm and Kelcy Warren hosting a fundraiser for Trump in Texas.
Israel Negotiations: Arab states want a two-state solution with US military involvement; Netanyahu opposes two-state altogether.
Russian Progress: Russian forces making progress in many directions at once in Ukraine.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Giuliani Indictment: Arizona officials unable to serve Rudy Giuliani with indictment notice related to alleged 2020 election scheme.
Fox Attacks Cohen: Fox attacks Michael Cohen as a "convicted liar" without mentioning his lies were to protect Trump.
Vance on Trump Trial: Sen. JD Vance claims Trump trial is "psychological torture" after visiting him in NYC.
EV Sales: US share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales decreased in Q1 2024.
DC Daycare Law: New D.C. law requiring daycare workers to have college degrees makes finding affordable daycare harder.
Nebraska GOP Primaries: Nebraska GOP rejecting all Republican congressional incumbents in Tuesday's primary election.
Texas School Board Member: GOP school board member Courtney Gore found no evidence of indoctrination after reviewing curriculum, faces backlash for speaking out.
Streaming Bundle: Netflix, Apple TV+, and Peacock teaming up to form a streaming bundle through Comcast.
House Oversight Delay: House Oversight Committee pushes back Garland contempt markup to accommodate GOP members attending Trump trial.
Insurers and Climate Shocks: Insurers around the US bleeding cash from climate shocks, leading to homeowners losing coverage.
News Consumption and Preferences: Presidential preference varies widely by news consumption habits.
Thanks for reading Political Guyentist! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
NEWS NEWS
1.) CPI Report - Overall CPI down to 3.36% YoY, Core CPI down to 3.62 YoY
Bottom line: A relatively dull report that won't change anything. Inflation is still too high. A tiny bit of easing but no surprise there--there never was any reason to believe underlying inflation was anything like the 4.5% pace we had been seeing in recent months.
Food, cars and other goods are no longer rising in price. Monthly food inflation has been 0% in past few months
The 2024 problems are 1) Rents still high 2) Auto insurance is crazy +22.6% in past yr and 3) Gas prices creeping up again
CPI inflation is likely to be between 3% and 4% for 2024:
[RELATED] GALLUP : Trend in Mentions of Inflation as the Most Important Family Financial Problem
April 2020 — 3%
April 2021 — 8%
April 2022 — 32%
April 2023 — 35%
April 2024 — 41% (all-time high)
[TS] Does seem a bit odd if inflation is going down. Counterpoint:
2.) BBC: Slovak PM Robert Fico fights for life after assassination attempt
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is fighting for his life in hospital after being shot in a small town north-east of Bratislava.
[UPDATE] Suspect in custody. Based on “initial interviews with the suspect," Interior Minister Matúš Šutaj Eštok said the assassination attempt was politically motivated. He said the suspect decided to carry out the attack after the presidential election. The ministers, Eštok and Kaliňák, blamed rising hate speech and division for the political atmosphere in the country.
[UPDATE 2] PM Robert Fico expected to survive after surgery. No longer in life-threatening condition.
3.) FP: Gazprom’s Declining Fortunes Spell Trouble for Moscow
Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom recorded a US$6.8bn loss in 2023, the first since 1999.
[TS] Russian predicted if they curbed natural gas exports to the European Union, two things would happen:
Gas prices would soar and they would reap the economic benefits (incl. for Gazprom)
EU would suffer and would eventually put pressure on Ukraine to perhaps end the war so that Russia would send gas again.
Neither has happened.
4.) Axios: Overdose deaths in 2023 fell for the first time since the pandemic
Drug overdose deaths fell 3% from 111,029 in 2022 to 107,543 last year, according to provisional data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
[TS] Still not great.
5.) WaPo’s Josh Dawsey: Oil billionaires Harold Hamm and Kelcy Warren are hosting a fundraiser lunch for Trump in Texas next week, per invite reviewed by Post.
Hamm helped orchestrate dinner at Mar-a-Lago where Trump asked oil executives to raise $1 billion for him and called it a "deal."
[TS] Reminder: I covered this previously Gas/oil companies are under investigation by the FTC for allegations of price fixing. So, now they have a “deal” to put Trump (who will be bought and paid for) back in the WH?
6.) Israel Negotiations
High level:
Arab states are wanting two state solution
Requires US military on ground - which Biden doesn’t want
Bibi doesn’t want a two-state solution
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attacks Netanyahu for refusing to create an alternative government in Gaza.
The moderate Arab states led by the UAE are willing to participate in governing Gaza and participating in a multi-national force. They have given the following conditions for doing so:
An Israeli agreement to move towards a two-state solution.
American actions to show support for a two-state solution.
The US, with American boots on the ground, will lead the force.
Arab countries told the US that there won't be a part of a multilateral force in Gaza without some statement/announcement by Israel that they are willing to discuss the two states solution
BIBI DOESN’T WANT A TWO-STATE SOLUTION
Netanyahu: “The two-state solution would be the greatest reward for the terrorists that you can imagine”
This is obviously in disagreement with USA & most every other country in the world. Israel’s policy is going to reflect this view until Netanyahu & his war cabinet are out of power.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s Attacks
"The lack of decision is a decision in and of itself. There is a trend that is creating a de facto Israeli civil and military government in Gaza. This is dangerous to us. Israel should not be the civil government in Gaza.
If there is no alternative to Hamas, there are only two choices, Hamas or an Israeli military government. They are both bad choices.
Israel cannot govern Gaza. I won't agree to that. It will cost far too much financially and in terms of human life. I call on Netanyahu to announce that Israel will not rule Gaza.
Since October, I have been raising this issue in the cabinet without receiving an answer. The military actions must lead to diplomatic ones. Even if personal and political costs are involved, a decision must be made."
[RELATED] Hamas is shooting rockets at the Kerem Shalom Crossing again.
7.) NYT: Russian forces are making progress in many directions at once.
NOT NEWS NEWS
8.) CNN: Arizona officials say they can’t find Rudy Giuliani to serve him with indictment notice
Arizona prosecutors have tried for weeks – and so far failed – to serve Rudy Giuliani with notice of his indictment related to an alleged scheme to overturn the 2020 election results in that state.
9.) MediaMatters: Fox attacks Michael Cohen as a “convicted liar,” leaves out that his lies were to protect Trump
[TS] I wanted to highlight this specifically for Sean Hannity who said
“Now, according to prosecutors, Cohen is telling the truth this time. All the other lies were just aberrations.”
[CONTEXT] In 2018, Cohen’s legal team famously revealed in court that Hannity was one of Cohen’s legal clients, a fact the host had concealed from his audience while repeatedly hosting Trump’s fixer for friendly interviews and defending him from legal repercussions. Hannity responded with a series of shiftingstories, at times denying Cohen had been employed as his lawyer while admitting that he had received legal advice and paid him money to ensure lawyer-client confidentiality.
10.) [TS] Sen. JD Vance (R-OH) had some observations after visiting Trump in NYC Mon:
[TS] The trial is psychological torture? He must really want that VP position. It’s almost as bad as Fox’s Jesse Watters:
11.) US Share of electric and hybrid vehicle sales decreased in the first quarter of 2024:
[TS] Probably another datapoint as to why the EV tariffs are a bad idea.
12.) Reason: A New Law Is Making It Even Harder To Find Day Care in D.C.
Average toddler day care costs in Washington, D.C., exceed $24,000 a year, outstripping expenses in cities like New York and San Francisco.
In 2016, a regulation was passed mandating that day care workers obtain a college degree. The city's logic is straightforward: If D.C.'s day care staff had college degrees, they could do a better job helping disadvantaged kids climb out of poverty.
[TS] This is just comically stupid. How would families living in poverty afford daycare to begin with?
13.) AP: The Nebraska GOP is rejecting all Republican congressional incumbents in Tuesday’s primary election
The Nebraska GOP, which was taken over by those loyal to former President Donald Trump during a contentious state convention in 2022, has refused to endorse any of the Republican incumbents who hold all five of the state’s congressional seats.
14.) [TS] Interesting story: Texas Tribune: A GOP Texas school board member campaigned against schools indoctrinating kids. Then she read the curriculum.
Courtney Gore won a school board seat on a platform of fighting indoctrination in schools.
After reviewing curriculum, she found no evidence of indoctrination.
Gore became disillusioned with those who pressured her and spoke out against them.
Gore has faced threats and backlash for her views.
[TS] I applaud her willingness to accept new evidence and change her view (publicly, no less). That is a rare phenomenon in general, and almost nonexistent in the public arena.
15.) Netflix, Apple TV+ and Peacock will team up to form their own streaming bundle through Comcast.
[TS] You are kidding me…Just give us the mega-ultra bundle and get it over with already. We’ve come full circle. It’s not just trends in fashion that are coming back in style.
16.) CNN’s Annie Grayer: House Oversight Committee pushes back their Garland contempt markup to 8p tomorrow so GOP members have time to attend the Trump trial in NYC, 2 sources tell me.
