Trumpdate (5.13.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Trump's Fundraising: At Mar-a-Lago, Trump asked oil executives for $1 billion in campaign donations, promising to roll back environmental rules.
Trump's IRS Audit: Trump claimed improper tax breaks on his Chicago tower, facing a potential $100 million tax bill from an IRS audit.
Rising Interest Costs: Interest on the U.S. debt is the second largest budget item and the fastest growing part of the budget.
Ukraine War Update: Deadly missile incident in Belgorod; intensified fighting in Kharkiv; Russian leadership shakeup; Lithuanian election.
Israel-Hamas Conflict: 300,000 flee Rafah; Israeli military orders evacuation of Jabaliya amid increased attacks.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Recession Talk: S&P 500 companies mentioned 'recession' more in 2022-2023 than during the Great Recession.
Shipping Emissions: Sulfur dioxide emissions from shipping dropped sharply with new rules in 2020.
Cultivated Meat Ban: Alabama bans the sale and manufacture of cultivated meat, with jail time and fines for violations.
OpenAI Event: OpenAI (ChatGPT) to stream an event, but not GPT-5 or a search engine.
Hunter Biden Charges: Appeals court rejects Hunter Biden's effort to dismiss federal gun charges; trial set for next month.
Gaza Casualty Estimates: UN seemingly halves estimate of Gazan women and children killed.
Trump Hush-Money Case: Michael Cohen set to testify in the case.
Musk's Political Ties: Elon Musk fosters relationships with right-wing heads of state to push politics and expand business.
Menendez Trial: Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NY) to go on trial in Manhattan for alleged bribery scheme.
1.) NYT: At a Dinner, Trump Assailed Climate Rules and Asked $1 Billion From Big Oil.
Former President Donald J. Trump, during a fund-raising dinner at his Mar-a-Lago resort in April 2024, told a group of about 20 oil executives and lobbyists that they should donate $1 billion to his presidential campaign. In return, he promised that if elected, he would roll back environmental rules that he claimed were hindering their industry, according to two attendees of the event, which was billed as an "energy round table."
[TS] How this isn’t considered a bribe I do not know. But apparently to SCOTUS, this behavior is fine.
2.) PROPUBLICA: IRS Audit of Trump Could Cost Former President More Than $100 Million
Former President Donald Trump claimed improper tax breaks from his troubled Chicago tower using a dubious accounting maneuver, according to an IRS inquiry uncovered by ProPublica and The New York Times. Trump claimed losses as high as $651 million in 2008 by declaring his investment in the tower as "worthless," and then sought to extract further benefits in 2010 by shifting the tower's ownership into a new partnership. The IRS argues that Trump went too far and effectively wrote off the same losses twice, which could result in a tax bill of more than $100 million if he loses the yearslong audit battle.
[TS] The trail of crime this guy leaves in his wake is just a staggering. His entire life is just one unending grift, con or hustle.
3.) CRFB: Interest Costs are now the US’s second largest government program.
Interest on the debt is currently the fastest growing part of the budget, nearly doubling from $345 billion (1.6 percent of GDP) in FY 2020 to $659 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in 2023, and net interest is on track to reach $870 billion (3.1 percent of GDP) by the end of FY 2024. Spending on interest is now the second largest line item in the budget and is expected to remain so for the rest of the fiscal year. By 2051, interest will be the largest line item in the budget.
4.) Ukraine War Update (Day 810)
Deadly Belgorod incident: An apartment building in Belgorod, Russia, partially collapsed due to a downed missile,killing at least 13 and injuring 20. Russia blames Ukraine, while Ukraine remains silent.
Fighting intensifies in Kharkiv: Ukraine acknowledges a tough situation in Kharkiv as Russia launches an offensive.Both sides claim territorial gains, with heavy fighting reported around Vovchansk. Thousands of civilians have fled the region.
Russian leadership shakeup: In a surprise move, President Putin replaces Defense Minister Shoigu with Andrei Belousov and offers Shoigu a new security council position.
Lithuanian election: Lithuania holds a presidential election where incumbent Gitanas Nauseda, a Ukraine supporter, is expected to win amidst regional security concerns.
[RELATED] Tens of thousands in Georgia protest Russia-style ‘foreign agents’ law.
5.) Israel / Hamas War
About 300,000 people have fled Rafah, in southern Gaza, over the past week, the U.N. said. International officials have expressed alarm, saying there is nowhere safe for Gazans to go.
The Israeli military ordered the evacuation of Jabaliya, in northern Gaza, as it increased its attacks there. The military said that Hamas was trying to reassemble in the area.
NOT NEWS NEWS
6.) S&P 500 company transcripts mentioning ‘recession’ was higher in 2022-2023 than the deepest downturn since the Great Depression.
[TS] Essentially, more oxygen was wasted talking about a recession that didn’t happen than a recession that did happen:
7.) Our World In Data: Sulfur dioxide emissions from shipping dropped sharply with the introduction of new rules in 2020
8.) WIRED: Sell Lab-Grown Meat in Alabama and You Could Go to Jail
Anyone found guilty of selling or manufacturing cultivated meat in Alabama will face up to a three-month jail sentence and $500 fine.
Alabama has become the second US state to ban the sale of cultivated meat. The bill, signed into law by Governor Kay Ivey on May 7, will make it illegal for anyone to manufacture, sell, or distribute cultivated meat in Alabama. Anyone found guilty of violating the law will have committed a class C misdemeanor, which in Alabama carries the possibility of up to a three-month jail sentence and a fine of $500.
9.) OpenAI (ChatGPT) will be streaming an event today at 10AM PT (1PM ET)
[UPDATE] Sam Altman (the CEO) says “not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me.”
[TS] That puts a lot of cold water on the speculation.
10.) An appeals court rejected Hunter Biden’s effort to dismiss his federal gun charges. He’s set to stand trial next month.
[RELATED] Maryellen Noreika just denied all of Hunter Biden's discovery requests, including. a request that prosecutors use Bates stamps for where they're getting stuff from the laptop.
11.) JERUSALEM POST: UN seemingly halves estimate of Gazan women, children killed
The UN also highlighted that the plurality of identified fatalities were men (40%), while children were (32%) and women (20%).
[TS] Why you would take Hama’s numbers wholesale in the first place. Regardless, it’s important to note: No one knows at this stage how many people have died. Also, it’s unlikely we’ll ever get an accurate body count.
12.) Trump “hush-money” case.
Michael Cohen is set to testify today.
13.) NYT: Elon Musk has fostered relationships with right-wing heads of state — including Javier Milei of Argentina — to push his own politics and expand his business empire.
14.) Sen. Robert Menedez (D-NY) will go on trial in Manhattan tomorrow.
He is charged with taking part in an elaborate bribery scheme