Trumpdate (4.9.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Trump released a video on abortion, bragging about ending Roe v Wade while avoiding clear stance. Headlines mischaracterized his vague position. Some conservatives criticized him for not supporting federal abortion ban. Women’s college basketball championship had high viewership ~18.7M. Hamas refuses to release hostages for ceasefire. Wisconsin GOP Senate candidate doubted nursing home residents' ability to vote. Data showing increasing government interest payments as share of total expenditure. Putin's empty troop threat to Finland. Trump had dinner with former UK PM David Cameron. NAIA largely bans transgender athletes from women's sports. Concerns raised over Trump's $175M bond. Gaza aid truck numbers increased after Biden pressure. RFK Jr’s NY director admits disrupting election for Trump. Russian troll strategy documents revealed. Declining corporate stock in taxable accounts. Biden announces new student debt relief plans. Judge dismantles "peaceful protest" claims about Jan 6. GOP likely to block $78B tax deal.
1.) Trump releases abortion station on Truth Social. [TS] There’s a lot here…
[TS] Let’s break this down by clip. Trump first says he supports IVF and is happy Alabama reversed their ruling*
*[CONTEXT]: does not reverse the ruling on determining embryos as “children” in Alabama but gives immunity to clinics and fertility specialists from being prosecuted for damage or death of an embryo during the process of IVF treatment.
This is smart politically. A very low % (only 14%) of the population is anti-IVF (presumably, some subset of Christians). Next he says this:
[TS] lol sorry - this wasn’t relevant I just didn’t know what the hell he was saying. Mother’s father? Heh?
Next, Trump brags about being the person responsible for ending Roe v Wade:
He then says that Democrats are radical on abortion because they want to allow “execution after birth:”
This is not the first time trump has claimed Dems want “post-birth abortions.” This is just nutty. No one in their right mind has ever called for anything even resembling that. How could you legally even justify it? Ridiculous on its face.
Trump then lays out his “position” on abortion:
[TS] This is not really a position on anything. He doesn’t say it should be left to the states. He says it “will” be left to the states. This is just a statement of what the current law is. He leaves unsaid what would happen if a ban crosses his desk. Would he sign it? Refuse? We don’t know. He doesn’t say. What about in FL? I covered how abortion is headed to the ballot in Nov. He should be asked how he’ll vote as a resident.
Per Jordan Weissman: He also says “whatever they decide must be the law of the land, in this case the state.” That also is a statement of fact. At some point someone needs to ask: ‘If Republicans pass a 15 or 16 week abortion ban in Congress, will you sign it, or will you veto it?’ Likewise, folks need to ask about mifepristone and the mail.
[TS] Overall, I think this was a really smart play, politically. He takes the easy win on IVF and doesn’t stick his neck out on anything else. It’s also parsed in such a way to make the exact headlines he wants. The news will never get this right. They’ll play their part in obfuscating his abortion position.
[UPDATE] As predicted…let’s look at some headlines:
NYT:
Headlines from Google:
AP/Reuters:
Lordy, I have to post this doozy from the Times. First the headline then the body:
[TS] Come on….
[UPDATE 2] Trump’s campaign is not responding to questions on Comstock:
[UPDATE 3] Kari Lake (R running for AZ senate) releases a statement and is much more clear:
I agree with President Trump: I do NOT support a federal abortion ban, policy should be up to individual states.
[UPDATE 4] Some in Congress and Conservatives react to Trump’s statement:
“We are deeply disappointed in President Trump’s position,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America.
[update] Dannenfelser tells CBS that she thinks Trump will come around to a federal abortion ban. The two spoke by phone this morning.
Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has declined to endorse his former running mate this year, put it this way: “President Trump’s retreat on the Right to Life is a slap in the face to the millions of pro-life Americans.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a vocal Trump ally, said on Twitter that he “respectfully” disagrees with Trump’s new position.
[UPDATE 5] Trump goes after Lindsey Graham on truth social:
[TS] Oof
[TS] As an aside, per Will Saletan: This story about the evolution of Graham's abortion position, is completely backwards. Graham was at 20 weeks. Dannenfelser et al talked Graham into lowering the cutoff to 15 weeks.
[TS] Not an update, but one other clip from his video I thought was worth mentioning. Trump singles out the 6 republican justices, by name, and thanks them (“incredible people”). This seemed so out of character to me, but it’s obvious he is wanting to curry favor to the justices to improve his chances in case one of his criminal cases ends up before the court. Flattery works so well on him (embarrassingly so), I’m sure he thinks others feel the same way about it.
2.) The Iowa-South Carolina national championship game averaged 18.7 million viewers.
That makes it the most watched basketball game — men's or women's, college or professional — in five years (4M more than last year’s men’s championship game).
3.) Per Yaron Avraham: Hamas has told mediators in Cairo it has "no ability to release 40 hostages as part of the humanitarian deal and insists on lower figures "than those assumed in Israel.”
[TS] Hamas was never going to negotiate in good faith. This is the 5th(!) time Hamas has turned down a ceasefire. Three months of this. Somehow, Biden is going to get blamed by progressives.
4.) Heartland Signal/WCPT820: Wisconsin GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde casts doubt on nursing home residents being able to vote: "Well, if you're in a nursing home, you only have a five, six-month life expectancy. Almost nobody in a nursing home is in a point to vote."
Story and audio:
5.) Richard Meyer posts graphs of flexible gas generation (based on the eclipse impact yesterday):
[RELATED] Energy - A lot of Trump allies have repeated a lie that Biden is “restricting oil” or (on Apr 4th) from Speaker Jonson: “Biden's unprecedented assault on American oil production has hurt consumers and businesses.” This is a lie. [CONTEXT] Oil, gas, and renewable production are at all-time highs under Biden:
6.) David Sommers on our increasing share of Govt expenditures for US interest payments.
Interest rates rising, old debt maturing, and the US Treasury issuing more debt ($3.14 trillion in the last 366 days) combine and US interest expense soars.
7.) POLITICO: Putin has threatened to station more soldiers at the Finnish border in response to Finland joining NATO.
The Finns know the Russian armed forces have no capacity for such an undertaking.
Putin miscalculated on Finland’s border
If Russia wants to intimidate Finland by announcing it’ll avenge the country’s NATO accession with troops on the border, it needs to have plenty of troops at its disposal. And Russia simply doesn’t.
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently threatened to station troops near the country’s border with Finland once again. That’s heavy saber-rattling, considering the border is more than 1,300 kilometers long. And Finland, of course, now enjoys the protection of its NATO allies, which means Putin’s threat is unlikely to cause any existential anxieties.
But this intimidation attempt will be unsuccessful for another crucial reason too: Russia doesn’t have enough soldiers.
8.) Trump had dinner last night with UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron at Mar-a-Lago, per Hugo Lowell
[CONTEXT] David Cameron is a British politician who served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom from 2010 to 2016. He was the leader of the Conservative Party and his premiership was marked by the UK's referendum vote to leave the European Union in 2016 (aka “Brexit”), after which he resigned as Prime Minister
9.) THE ATHLETIC: NAIA largely bans transgender athletes from women’s sports in new participation policy.
[CONTEXT] THE NAIA is a mostly small college sports organization that oversees 241 schools and about 83,000 athletes participating in more than 25 sports.
The National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA) approved a transgender participation policy Monday that will only allow athletes to participate in NAIA-sponsored women’s sports if their biological sex assigned at birth is female and they have not begun hormone therapy. The policy will also allow all athletes to participate in male sports.
“We are unwavering in our support of fair competition for our student-athletes,” NAIA President and CEO Jim Carr said in a news release. “It is crucial that NAIA member institutions, conferences, and student-athletes participate in an environment that is equitable and respectful. With input from our member institutions and the Transgender Task Force, the NAIA’s Council of Presidents has confirmed our path forward.”
[TS] Not a decision in AAA/big time college sports, but this is probably the direction where things are headed. I don’t think this is a radical position. Humans are a sexually dimorphic species. Men and women are different. There will likely need to be an arbitrary line drawn somewhere before college sports where transgender women can compete at lower levels.
10.) DAILYBEAST: Trump’s $175 Million Bond Is Even Shadier Than It Looks
New information shows that the insurance company that swooped in and bailed out Trump with a $175 million bond isn’t on a list of vetted companies—and wrote a bizarre contract.
The little-known insurance company that rescued Donald Trump by providing a last-minute $175 million bank fraud bond isn’t just unlicensed in New York; it hasn’t even been vetted by a voluntary state entity that would verify it meets minimum “eligibility standards” to prove financial stability.
Perhaps even more troubling, the legal document from Knight Specialty Insurance Company doesn’t actually promise it will pay the money if the former president loses his $464 million bank fraud case on appeal. Instead, it says Trump will pay, negating the whole point of an insurance company guarantee, according to three legal and bond experts who reviewed the contract for The Daily Beast.
“This is not common… the only reason this would be done is to limit the liability to the surety,” said N. Alex Hanley, an expert in how companies appeal enormous judgments.
11.) COGAT says 419 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday. It is the highest daily number of aid trucks that entered the enclave since October 7.
[TS] Good news. That’s up from 322 the day before.
12.) RFK Jr. is there to defeat Biden, help Trump win. From the campaign itself, on video.
[BACKGROUND] This is from Rita Palma, who said in a political presentation to a local Hudson Valley group that she was hired by the Kennedy campaign as New York state director about three weeks ago and twice voted for former President Donald Trump.
Video highlights:
“The Kennedy voter & the Trump voter—our mutual enemy is Biden. … if nobody gets to 270, Congress picks the president. So who are they going to pick if it’s a R Congress? They’ll pick Trump.”
[TS] Damning. This is crazy. His entire campaign is a fraud. There is a burgeoning Russian fifth column in the US. RFK Jr. seems to want to lead it — first spewing Russian propaganda and now tampering with democracy itself?
13.) WaPo: Russian trolls target US support for Ukraine, Kremlin documents show.
Kremlin-linked strategists have fabricated thousands of news articles, social media posts and comments to promote American isolationism, stir border security fears and amplify US economic and racial tensions, according to internal Kremlin documents.
[TS] Not coincidentally, this aligns to the political strategy of Donald Trump's Republican Party which has aligned itself with the Kremlin.
14.) The percentage of taxable accounts of corporate stock have gone from ~80% in 1965 to around ~30% today.
Chart from Tax Policy Center (TPC):
15.) NBC: Biden announces new plans to provide student debt relief for millions
More than 30 million Americans would benefit from the plans in combination with other actions the administration has taken, the White House said.
Biden’s new plans are aimed at canceling runaway interest for millions of borrowers; nullifying debt for those who are eligible for but not yet participating in certain forgiveness programs, such as those in public service who've been paying off their loans for 10 years or more; borrowers of undergraduate or graduate loans who started paying off loans at least 20 or 25 years ago, respectively; borrowers enrolled in low financial value programs; and those experiencing hardships that prevent them from making loan payments.
[TS] Probably not a great idea, politically or otherwise.
Considering there are real plans out there to actually lower tuitions - see: https://www.crfb.org/blogs/college-cost-reduction-act-could-save-150-billion-lower-tuitions
This will likely keep inflation and interest rates higher for longer. And for a minority of the population with…graduate degrees? (would like to see the distribution here).
16.) [TS] Not news, but a good read through a sentencing document in which Judge Lamberth systematically dismantles the idea January 6 was a "peaceful protest."
Read the whole thing HERE. This is democracy and the rule of law speaking in self-defense against violent onslaught.
17.) WSJ Editorial Board posts Opinion titled, “Mike Johnson’s Ukraine Moment.”
[TS] I’m not even going to link it. This is absurd on its face. Maybe they’re talking about another Mike Johnson…
18.) BLOOMBERG: Bipartisan $78 Billion Tax Deal Hits GOP Roadblock in US Senate.
Senate Republicans are poised to sink a $78 billion tax-cut package, gambling that they’ll win the majority in November and can push then for bigger breaks for business.
They also don’t want to hand President Joe Biden an election-year victory on the legislation, which includes both child and business tax breaks, lawmakers and aides have said.
[CONTEXT] The deal -- which passed in the House on a bipartisan basis -- would, per CBPP (a liberal think tank) just in the first year: *increase the tax credit for about 16 million children in families with low incomes *lift 400,000 poor kids out of poverty.