1.) Trump's $175M bond filing deemed deficient. 2) Discussion on regressive lottery taxes disproportionately affecting the poor. 3) Critique of CA housing policies compared to NC. 4) Updates on Trump's legal case, Judge Cannon's rulings. 5) No Labels won't run 3rd party candidate. 6) Barry Diller calls Trump’s $DJT "scam." 7) Analysis of Biden admin's deficit projections. 8) Trump post on "Jan 6 hostages." 9) AZ probe of Trump fake electors. 10) Trump's comments on Israel, Biden drug use claim. 11) Newsmax SEP trial over 2020 election lies. 12) Biden urges Israel ceasefire, aid for Gaza. 13) RFK Jr. disowns email calling Jan 6 rioters "activists." 14) Economic data analysis across states. 15) 4.8 earthquake in NJ/NYC area. 16) March jobs report, employment data. 17) School absenteeism crisis analysis. 18) GOP's gender gap polling. 19) Twitter blue check changes. 20) Murder rate declines in 2024 data. 21) Ukraine drone attack on Russia.
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1.) CBS/Kaufman: Trump's $175M bond filing from Knight Specialty Insurance Co. "is deficient…”
Trump's $175M bond filing "is deficient for a number of reasons... Including that the company doesn't appear to be licensed in New York and doesn't appear to have enough capital." NY Supreme Court is seeking "correction" from Trump's attorneys.
[TS] Also of note: This CA company was not on the list of the over 30 companies he first reached out to to try and get a bond. Also also of note: Trump in court said he was paying cash, did he not?
2.) [TS] Regressive Taxes: What’s something poor people spend a lot more on than rich people?
There's confusion over Smith's response to Judge Cannon regarding Trump's Espionage Act trial schedule and her potential ruling that he could deem classified docs "personal." Smith wants Cannon to formalize that stance to allow him to appeal it before trial, as after trial he can't appeal rulings.
Cannon can officialize, backdown, or do nothing - the latter two prevent Smith's appeal. If officialized, Smith can appeal and potentially seek Cannon's removal for delaying the pre-election trial.
An appeal could expedite the case by moving it to another judge, but delays increase if not swiftly reviewed. The 11th Circuit previously acted decisively regarding Cannon, but time is running out for a pre-election conclusion.
[UPDATE]
Judge Cannon didn't give Special Counsel Smith a clean ruling on whether Trump can designate sensitive defense info as "personal property." Instead of finalizing her stance to allow Smith to appeal, she defensively claims the issue is complex, forcing Smith to seek an extraordinary writ of mandamus from the 11th Circuit.
Smith would be wise to pursue this writ, and key questions are: 1) Will he also seek Cannon's recusal? 2) Will this delay or accelerate the stalled trial's schedule?
If Smith prioritizes getting this to trial before the election he will seek recusal now along with an 11th Circuit appellate court ruling on whether Trump can transform sensitive defense information into his personal property. And he will seek those rulings on an expedited schedule, which the 11th Circuit has shown it can do.
In summary, Smith would and should now use this opportunity to highlight the dilemma Cannon has created by 1) expressly holding out the possibility, without ruling, that Trump can argue to the jury that he has legal authorization to take and retain whatever sensitive defense information suits his fancy 2) declaring without proper standards that classified information the government is filing, along with witness names and testimony, be immediately made public, then reconsidering without ever ruling on the issue creating unworkable uncertainty 3) failing to rule on at least a dozen pending motions upon which further trial preparation is dependent and by 4) continuing a course of bias and incompetence that was previously recognized by the 11th Circuit during the search warrant phase of this very matter involving Trump.
5.) No Labels announced they are not running a third party candidate.
[TS] Not for lack of trying! I think everyone they asked said, “No.” Overall, in an election with stakes this high, I’m glad. The name, however, might be a little too on the nose now…
6.) Per Quintanilla: Barry Diller on CNBC when asked bout $DJT: “WHY are you even talking about this? It’s a scam. Just like everything he’s ever been involved in ..”
Barry Diller (American businessman and former executive who served as the chairman and senior executive for Paramount Pictures and Fox, Inc., and later became chairman and CEO of IAC/InterActiveCorp):
7.) Kogan at the Center for American Progress (“CAP” - a liberal/progressive research org): CBO’s Long-Term Projections of the Primary Deficit Fell Each Year of the Biden Administration
The Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) long-term projections of the primary deficit and debt decreased sharply during the Biden administration.
Long-term projections of the primary deficit fell every single year of the Biden administration
They fell SO much that long-term projections of debt are lower now than PRE-covid projections, even though we took on trillions of new debt
Here's what the difference in primary deficits looks like relative to the pre-covid projections
[TS] - While that’s good news, we still spent $1.7T more in 2023. Inflation is semi-normal, GDP is up, corp profits are way up, unemployment is very low. We should be tightening the belt at these times *not* adding to the debt.
8.) Trump pins “Jan 6th hostages with President Trump” on Truth Social:
9.) POLITICO / Cheney: Reps. Andy Biggs, Paul Gosar subpoenaed in Arizona probe of Trump fake electors.
The Arizona attorney general is nearing a decision on whether to charge Trump allies with crimes, but there is no indication Biggs or Gosar will face charges.
10.) Trump speaks to Hugh Hewitt on Israel, Accuses Biden of drug use (maybe cocaine).
Snips from Gertz: Donald Trump's position is that Israel is being too cautious in Gaza and needs to "finish what they started, and they’ve got to finish it fast," while also winning "the PR war" by not releasing "horrible tapes of buildings falling down."
11.) CNN/Cohen: Judge schedules Newsmax case over 2020 election lies for September trial.
[TS] This will bring to the forefront the lies Trump and co told about the 2020 election right before the ‘24 election.
12.) Biden: “Today, I spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu to emphasize that strikes on aid workers and the humanitarian situation in Gaza are unacceptable. Israel must implement steps to address civilian harm and the safety of workers – and work toward a ceasefire to bring hostages home.”
[UPDATE] NBC: Israel to open more aid routes [Erez Crossing] to Gaza and increase deliveries after pressure from Biden.
[TS] This is good news, but I think Biden should put more pressure on Bibi. That being said, anyone who seriously considers not voting for Biden because of his handling of Israel/Gaza is delusional. As if Trump’s concerns lie with the Palestinians? Or anyone besides himself, for that matter.
Bibi clearly wants the war to continue. It’s the only way he stays in power. Two data points to consider from Israel:
Majority of the population agree with the war against Hamas
Majority of the population want Bibi out
[TS] Why the Israeli people allowed him to stay in power for the war is baffling to me. They should have removed him/his cabinet from Govt. and continued the war. Here you have a guy, who’s fundamental pledge to the Israeli people was to keep them safe (they traded/excused all sorts of bad behavior for this reason. See: his corruption, Settlements on West Bank etc.), and the LARGEST terrorist attack happened on his watch. They were completely blindsided by it. And this is the guy you want to lead the war?
13.) NBC / Reilly: RFK Jr. campaign disowns its fundraising email calling Jan. 6 rioters 'activists'
His campaign blamed the email, which said the "activists" had been "stripped of their Constitutional liberties," on an "error" inserted by a "marketing contractor."
After publication of this piece, Kennedy spokesperson Stephanie Spear told NBC News that the language was an "error."
“That statement was an error that does not reflect Mr. Kennedy’s views. It was inserted by a new marketing contractor and slipped through the normal approval process,” she said.
14.) Greg Ip’s chart in the WSJ demonstrates how poor our country’s information system is.
This chart echoes the surveys of people who say their own finances are fine but the broader economy is bad. Here, it appears all the swing states are in good economic shape but the nation as a whole is somehow a mess:
[TS] I can speculate reasons why this could be true, but the reality obviously points to how genpop consumes their information. Why might this graph make sense? Well, you could draw a partition between the Federal budget and the State budget and make noises about the debt/deficit at the federal level. That’s just unrealistic to conclude from the graph.
15.) Earthquake in New Jersey (4.8 magnitude)
[TS] - People in NYC felt it. Sorry this is realtime and this is all I know.
16.) Ernie Tedeschi Adjusted for aging, employment and labor force participation rates are extraordinary, around 1999-2000 levels, likely ranking among the highest in US history. This is truly about as close to full employment as the US has managed to get outside of wartime mobilization.
The wedge between payroll & household employment closed marginally but is still unusually large: 3.8 mil when making the two like-for-like, or 2.5%. The March report is another incremental piece of evidence that trend payroll growth is above the ~100K/month rule of thumb we thought.
17.) MARCH JOBS UPDATE (per Heather Long): The US economy added 303,000 jobs in March — above expectations. The big gains were healthcare (72k) and gov’t (71k). Unemployment rate: 3.8% (vs 3.9% in Feb) Wage growth: 4.1% in past year (well above 3.2% inflation).
[TS] Guy Berger(Burning Glass Institute) Nonfarm payroll employment continues to come in very strong. Deceleration stopped a long time ago.
18.) Derek Thompson (The Atlantic): School absences "exploding" across America.
School absences "exploding" across America. Some will say this is about COVID politics & school closures. But this crisis defies easy narratives. See below: Truancy is up in all kinds of districts: rich/poor, high-/low-remote. “Something deeper is happening.”
Three true things:
1. In 2020/21, liberal districts closed more schools
2. More school closures correlate with more learning loss
3. But it's much harder to find strong statistical correlation btw liberal school closures and %increase in absenteeism
Last month, Gallup "asked whether the United States would be better governed with more women in office." 84% of Democrats said yes. But Republicans, by a 43%-32% margin, said the US would be worse off, not better.
20.) Elon starts giving out blue checks all across twitter (for free), unbidden, to popular accounts.
[TS] We’re going to come full circle with where blue checks were before, aren’t we?
21.) AH DATALYTICS / The YTD murder dashboard is now online with 2024 data covering 186 cities. Murder is down 20.6% in our city sample.
[TS] Despite proclamations from Trump / Fox et al., this is actually what’s happening to crime rates. Also, the dashboard is really cool:
22.) Ukraine War News: Overnight, Ukraine launched one of its largest ever drone attacks on Russia. More than 50 long-range Ukrainian drones targeted 4 airbases from which Russia launches fighter-bombers that attack Ukrainian front line positions and strategic bombers that terrorize all of Ukraine.
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