The Biden administration is weighing an $18 billion arms sale to Israel, including F-15 jets. Abortion on the ballot in Florida. Trump's Truth Social facing doubts about its future viability. Trump's NY hush-money trial gag order expanded to cover the judge's family. New evidence links Russia's GRU unit to Havana Syndrome attacks. Israeli troops exited Gaza's Shifa hospital after battling Hamas militants. Jake Sullivan to meet Saudi crown prince on normalizing ties with Israel. Trump posted $175M bond in NY fraud case. The Club for Growth, funded by a TikTok investor, warned GOP against banning TikTok.
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1.) REUTERS: Biden administration weighing $18 billion in arms transfers to Israel, sources say.
The sale of 25 F-15s from Boeing Co. to Israel has been under review since the United States received the formal request in January 2023, one of the sources said, long before Israel's six-month-old military campaign in Gaza. This sale would boost that number to as many as 50 F-15s.
Speeding delivery of the aircraft was among the top asks by Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who visited Washington last week and held talks with U.S. officials including National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, a second source said
One U.S. official said the earliest the aircraft would be delivered is 2029, and that is if the formal notification were sent to Congress tomorrow and it were finalized immediately.
House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul gave the green light for the F-15 sale on Jan. 30, a committee aide said, when the relevant congressional offices responsible for approving major arms transfers were notified.
"Administration-Congressional deliberations on the F-15 case have already occurred," the second source familiar with the matter said, but added that some of the four offices required to sign off on any arms transfers had yet to do so.
[TS] A few points to callout:
Washington gives $3.8 billion in annual military assistance to Israel
The administration has so far resisted calls to condition any arms transfers.
Most of the aid—approximately $3.3 billion a year—is provided as grants under the Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program, funds that Israel must use to purchase U.S. military equipment and services.
U.S. aid reportedly accounts for some 15 percent of Israel’s defense budget
This sale is separate from the $14 billion in aid for Israel that Biden has asked Congress to approve as part of a sweeping $95 billion national security supplemental spending package that also includes aid for Ukraine and Taiwan.
Since Israel’s founding in 1948, the US has given $300B in aid:
[TS] I do think this sale is a separate issue entirely from the $3.8B in annual aid. Most people that read the headline (including myself) assume it’s referring to Bullets #1 or #2. If Biden wants to use his weight to guide policy out of Israel (which I think he should), he should have an honest conversation about our recurring aid.
2.) [UPDATE] Trump’s claim about the Judge’s daughter’s post has now been debunked via the court.
His attorneys tacitly acknowledge they never verified it was her account. The post was merely "attributed" to her, they write:
[TS] This is a pattern. Trump wrongly attributed posts to Judge Engoron’s wife last year per CBS.
3.) FL SCOTUS Abortion Ruling: Abortion is now illegal in FL beyond 6 weeks.
The Florida Supreme Court simultaneously UPHOLDS the state's 15-week abortion ban (which lets the six-week ban take effect, too)—but also APPROVES a ballot initiative that would amend the FL constitution to protect abortion.
However, the Fla. Supreme Court upheld the state's current 15-week abortion ban, which now paves the way for a 6-week abortion ban to go into effect in 30 days that includes exceptions for rape, incest or human trafficking, but only through the first 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Here is SB300, which is the 6-week abortion ban and is called Florida's "Heartbeat Protection Act": It contains highly restrictive language.
Now, in order to get an abortion, the rape or incest survivor “must provide a copy of a restraining order, police report, medical record, or other court order or documentation” to prove she was a victim of rape or incest.
There is also an exception for the life of the pregnant person, but only if two physicians certify in writing that the woman will die if she continues the pregnancy.
In November, to add the amendment to the Constitution, a 60% supermajority would need to vote in favor.
[NOTE per Phang]
In Footnote 3 on page 32 & on page 49-50, there is a discussion of whether a "preborn child" has recognized personhood under FL's Constitution. As we've seen in the recent IVF decision in Alabama, this is the next frontier for opponents of reproductive rights.
[TS] I would be surprised if this doesn’t spur a negative reaction from voters in FL. I think the majority of the populace lands around the same place:
Abortion should be legal
Our cares and concerns of the fetus’ well-being increase as the pregnancy progresses
The limits to an abortion increase as the pregnancy progresses:
In the first 15 weeks, most people agree that a woman can terminate a pregnancy for any reason.
As the pregnancy continues, the abortion options continue to shrink to:
QoL of baby post birth (ie development issues)
Viability of baby
Health of mother
Very few — even far lefties — agree that it should be legal for a woman to abort a pregnancy “late-term” because “they don’t want it anymore.” Even changes to their own circumstances (financial, relationship or otherwise) are not a good enough reason at this stage.
[RELATED] Trump’s take in May ‘23 on abortion:
[TS] I would be curious how much he or the GOP campaign on this. You would think there would have been a big celebration on the right after the SCOTUS ruling but it was whisper quiet. It’s not something they brag about publicly and they don’t like to advertise it to the public. Probably because…
[RELATED] Opinion on abortion has gotten a lot more liberal as America has become more secular:
[TS] Speaking of the US becoming more secular….
[RELATED ON US RELIGIOSITY] Per Derek Thompson (The Atlantic) : The fastest-growing religious affiliation in America—with the highest conversion rate and close to the highest retention rate—is "Unaffiliation." Atheism, agnosticism, and general religious indifference is highest and rising fastest among young/white/Democrats.
Look at the post-2000 decline in share of teens who say they "ever" attend religious services (via Jean Twenge's "Monitoring the Future" research):
The fastest-growing reasons given for leaving organized religion seem to be getting more social-political, like clergy abuse scandals, treatment of LGBTQ ppl, and too much emphasis on politics. Concerns about mental health also rising.
[UNRELATED]-ish but related to FL’s elections and Nov’s ballot: The Florida Supreme Court also approved a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana. That will also appear on Nov’s ballot.
4.) YAHOO: Trump Media auditor raises doubts about Truth Social's future in new filing.
Trump's Truth Social company posted its new financials to the SEC yesterday:
In a letter sent to Trump Media’s shareholders and board on March 25 – one day before Trump Media was listed on the Nasdaq – accounting firm BF Borgers CPA PC noted that the company’s operating losses “raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.”
Trump Media made about $4 million in revenue and lost more than $58 million in 2023, according to the recent filing. Despite the losses, its market capitalization is currently over $6.5 billion.
The company acknowledged potential "near-term margin pressure" from increased marketing expenses and insurance costs after going public, and said it expects to operate at a loss “for the foreseeable future” as it works to expand its user base.
[TS] “…raise substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern.” I’m no expert, but I believe those accountants are saying:
5.) The DA in Trump’s NY case (AlvinBragg) wants to expand Trump's gag order to expressly include the judge's family members.
They remind the court that Trump will have access to the potential jurors' names. That access can be revoked if he "threatens the safety" of jury-selection.
[TS] Also in the filing, Bragg concedes that the current gag order does not cover the Judge or his daughter.
[UPDATE] GUARDIAN: Trump gag order has been expanded by the Judge (Juan Merchan), preventing the former president from making inflammatory comments about the judge’s family members, after they became the target of Trump’s personal attacks.
New order from Justice Merchan says the original gag order did not contemplate the family members of the Court or the DA — so no sanctions at present for Trump
6.) THE INSIDER: Unraveling Havana Syndrome: New evidence links the GRU's assassination Unit 29155 to mysterious attacks on U.S. officials and their families
A yearlong investigation by The Insider, in collaboration with 60 Minutes and Der Spiegel, has uncovered evidence suggesting that unexplained anomalous health incidents, also known as Havana Syndrome, may have their origin in the use of directed energy weapons wielded by members of Russian GRU Unit 29155. Members of the Kremlin’s infamous military intelligence sabotage squad have been placed at the scene of suspected attacks on overseas U.S. government personnel and their family members, leading victims to question what Washington knows about the origins of Havana Syndrome, and what an appropriate Western response might entail.
[CONTEXT] What is Havana Syndrome?
Havana Syndrome refers to a series of mysterious health incidents first reported by American diplomats and other officials stationed in Havana, Cuba in 2016. The symptoms included dizziness, headaches, fatigue, nausea, anxiety, and memory loss, often preceded by bizarre sensory experiences like loud grating noises. Similar cases have since been reported by U.S. personnel in China, Russia, and other countries.
The incidents have become a major controversy, with some believing they are the result of directed energy attacks by hostile nations, while others argue the cases stem from other environmental factors or mass psychogenic illness. Despite years of investigation by the U.S. government, the underlying causes remain unclear, though progress has been made in uncovering the brain injuries. The cases have fueled tensions between the U.S. and countries like Russia and China.
[TS] Fascinating read. A high-level rundown from Insider’s Michael Weiss:
The Insider et al. have obtained intercepted Russian intelligence documents, travel logs, and call metadata, along with eyewitness testimony that challenges the US intelligence community assessment that it’s “very unlikely” Havana Syndrome is the work of a foreign adversary.
Senior members of Unit 29155 have received awards and political promotions for work related to the development of “non-lethal acoustic weapons.”
Operatives attached to Unit 29155, traveling undercover, have been geolocated to multiple locations around the world just before or precisely at the time of reported anomalous health incidents (or AHIs, the U.S. government's formal name for Havana Syndrome).
The investigation has obtained an addendum sent by Lt. Col. Nikolay Ezhov, one of Col. Ivan Terentiev’s aides and a fellow member of Unit 29155. The document shows that a prize awarded to Col. Terentiev prize was related to his research on the “potential capabilities of non-lethal acoustic weapons in combat activities in urban settings.”
7.) REUTERS / NYT / : Israeli Soldiers Pull Out of Gaza’s Al-Shifa Hospital After 2-week Battle.
Troops exit Gaza's Shifa Hospital, leaving rubble and bodies. This is their second Military raid of the Hospital. CNN reported on why Israel was back in late Mar:
Targeting hospitals in wartime is prohibited under international law, but those standards change if enemy combatants are using the facility to attack an enemy.
One eyewitness said that, on the eve of the raid, they spotted hundreds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad members inside the hospital.
The eyewitness, who spoke to CNN on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, estimated about 400 to 500 Hamas and Islamic Jihad members and their families arrived at the hospital in mid-March. Some of them appeared to be members of Hamas’ political branch, while others were armed militants.
The eyewitness said some of the militants were carrying guns inside the hospital.
CNN is unable to independently verify the numbers due to lack of reporting access to the strip, and has asked the Gaza health ministry for comment.
It's horrible and heartbreaking to see Gaza's largest hospital, with the highest capacity for wounded people. Also, thousands of inhabitants used to seek refuge at this hospital after losing their houses and fleeing the conflict zone. Nonetheless, Hamas opted to turn the hospital into a combat zone without regard for the safety or fate of civilians or injured patients.
The terrible loss of the hospital emphasizes the importance of building field hospitals that fulfill the aim of curing civilians while preventing jihadist activities, either under or inside the hospital.
[UPDATE] Seth Frantzman: “Some final details from the Second Battle of Shifa, after IDF left today they released a few details this morning:”
Total suspects found: 900
Of those, 513 were confirmed as Hamas and PIJ, of whome about one third are PIJ.
Documents were found about how the terrorists divided the hospital areas for command and control and also other details, including cash, for distribution.
Mortars continued to be fired at the IDF even as they were leaving...(my note: which seems to indicate terrorist presence nearby that was not neutralized, showing one of the problems with this clear and raid tactic but never holding)
Yahya Sinwar (Sinwar is the current leader and head of the political bureau of Hamas) saw Shifa as important for command and control in the north and the terrorists said they felt secure there, they could embed among civilians and also had access to food, etc.
There had been around 6,200 people in the hospital compound, with hundreds of medical staff; Israel facilitated evacuating them (almost 1,000 were suspected terrorists when you add up the 900+those killed in clashes)
The IDF suffered casualties in the operation, which illustrates the enemy's use of firearms, mortars in and around the compound.
The operation was initially led by Shayetet 13, the navy seals in a rapid approach around 2:30am on March 18 and then followed up with armor from the 401st
[SEMI-RELATED UPDATED] The World Central Kitchen (founded by José Andrés - who I covered in yesterday’s Trumpdate, who’s NYC restaurant was targeted by Pro-Palestine protestors over the weekend) released a statement yesterday:
“We are aware of reports that members of the World Central Kitchen team have been killed in an IDF attack while working to support our humanitarian food delivery efforts in Gaza. This is a tragedy. Humanitarian aid workers and civilians should NEVER be a target. EVER.”
[TS] Terrible news. Juan and his organization does amazing work.
8.) AXIOS: Sullivan to meet MBS to push Saudi side of Israel mega-deal
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to Saudi Arabia to meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Thursdayabout a potential mega-deal that would include Saudi normalization with Israel.
9.) Trump Posts $175 Million Bond in NY Civil Fraud Case, Averts Asset Seizure.
MSNBC’s Lisa Rubin: The company that underwrote Trump's bond tonight in the NY Attorney General's civil fraud case, Knight Specialty Insurance Co., is owned by Don Hankey, the so-called "king of subprime car loans."
Hankey, who is #128 on Forbes’s 2023 list and #317 on the 2023 Forbes billionaires list, made his money in auto services. But he is also believed to be the largest shareholder in Axos Bank.
If Axos sounds familiar, it's because it's the financial institution that refinanced Trump’s loans on Trump Tower and Doral in 2022. Specifically, Axos has loaned Trump $100 million in his refinancing of Trump Tower and another $125 million for Doral.
Both loans are not due until 2032, according to the Office of Government Ethics disclosure Trump made in August 2023. The list of his liabilities, as it appears in that filing and which references both Axos loans, is pasted below here.
10.) POLITICO: Club for Growth, funded by major TikTok parent-company investor Jeff Yass, has warned GOP lawmakers that they will give them a worse conservative grade if they vote for a TikTok ban.
As House lawmakers weighed legislation earlier this month that could amount to a ban on TikTok, the conservative political powerhouse Club for Growth had a threat for members: Vote for the bill, and we could dock your score.
The Club for Growth, buoyed by funding from major TikTok parent-company investor Jeff Yass, has become a massively influential player in contested Republican primaries, scoring lawmakers based on how they vote on certain legislation. The group has also become a key player in the fight over the Chinese-owned social media platform and efforts by Republicans to force its parent company, ByteDance, to sell, as the bill threatens Yass’ investment, which is reportedly worth up to $21 billion.
The argument from Club for Growth, relayed by two Hill aides who were granted anonymity to discuss private messages, is one of several pleas from varying angles that TikTok or its advocates have quietly made with lawmakers or offices on the Hill. Someone aware of TikTok’s efforts on the Hill said that it has also argued that the move would actually hurt retirees: Major financial firms are invested in ByteDance, the logic goes, and pension funds have provided capital to those giants.
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