Trumpdate (4.18.24):
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
President Biden called for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum imports, despite criticism that Trump-era tariffs have hurt American consumers and businesses.
NPR editor Uri Berliner resigned after facing backlash for an essay criticizing the network's alleged liberal bias, with around 50 NPR employees signing a letter against his claims.
The Arizona House again blocked efforts to repeal the state's 1864 near-total abortion ban, while celebrations erupted among anti-abortion advocates after the vote.
The Senate rejected both articles of impeachment against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, with the vote largely along party lines.
The Trump campaign is demanding a 5% cut of fundraising proceeds from candidates using his name and likeness, potentially impacting down-ballot Republican campaigns.
Colorado Republicans blocked a legislative effort to allow victims of decades-old child sexual abuse to sue their abusers and associated institutions.
Former Attorney General William Barr, a vocal Trump critic, announced he will support the Republican ticket in the upcoming election due to concerns about the Biden administration.
Donald Trump is facing pressure from economists to embrace a flat 17% income tax rate and soften his trade stance if elected.
Data showed significant disparities between U.S. and U.K. salaries across various professions, highlighting a growing wage arbitrage favoring American workers.
Recent analyses challenged the "millennial misery myth," suggesting millennials' finances are improving, while Generation Z is unprecedentedly wealthy compared to previous generations at the same age.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is moving forward with bills providing aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Indo-Pacific allies, despite facing opposition and threats of being ousted by Republicans, with President Biden backing the effort.
Donald Trump has been spreading unverified claims about jury bias in his hush money trial on Truth Social, even before the jury is fully seated.
1.) CNN: Biden calls for a tripling of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum as he makes economic pitch in Pittsburgh.
Speaking from the United Steelworkers headquarters, Biden called on United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai to “consider tripling” the existing 7.5% tariff rate on Chinese steel and aluminum through a review of the Section 301 tariff rate, pending the conclusion of a four-year review.
The White House has ramped up pressure on China to amend its trade practices, citing concerns of an oversupply of clean energy products subsidized by Beijing.
[TS] My reaction:
[TS] If the tariffs didn’t work under Trump, they won’t work under Biden.
[CONTEXT] Biden left Trump's tariffs in place and is now proposing to add to them. Per Tax Foundation: Americans Are Still Paying for the Trump-Biden Tariffs:
[TS] I’m seeing a lot of folks defending this position because they’re “targeted” or doing a comparison between Trump’s tariff plan (which I covered previously). Yes, the ~$1.7 billion in Chinese steel the President is targeting is less than 0.1% of the $3,200 billion in imported goods the Trump across-the-board tariff targets — but! That doesn’t mean you should use his very dumb proposals as cover for your (in Kyle Pomerleau’s words): “run-of-the-mill dumb proposals.”
[CONTEXT] Who pays tariffs? (per CATO)
2.) [UPDATE 2] Uri Berliner from NPR is resigning. Letter:
[UPDATE] Per Ben Mullin (NYT) About 50 NPR employees sign a letter to CEO Katherine Maher and top editor Edith Chapin calling for, among other things, a public rebuke of the “factual inaccuracies and elisions” in Uri Berliner’s Free Press essay.
3.) [UPDATE] AXIOS: Arizona House again blocks repeal of 1864 abortion ban, Senate leaves door open.
The razor-thin margins, 30-30 in the House and 16-14 in the Senate, illustrate the tensions that have resurfaced over the issue since the Arizona Supreme Court reinstated the pre-Roe ban last week.
[INFO] The 1864 ruling is a near-total abortion ban with no exceptions for health, rape, or incest.
[TS] Democrats' second effort to suspend the rules in an effort to roll back the 1864 law fails as well, again on a tied 30-30 vote.
[TS] After AZ Republicans blocked the repeal (and even debate on the repeal) reps celebrated with those in attendance:
A different angle (per AZ Senate Dems):
[RELATED] Trump-endorsed candidate: "You cannot have a successful society outside of the Christian moral order."
Host on the Christian Show: “The left is uncorked...Saying we’re coming after gay marriage and birth control next…Well, you know what? Yeah, yeah we are.”
[TS] The host is something else. Great hair though!
4.) [UPDATE] NBC: Senate rejects both impeachment articles against DHS Secretary Mayorkas.
[TS] No surprises here. This was a baseless impeachment done for purely political reasons and to dilute the impact of impeachments.
Vote was 51 to 48 with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) voting “present.”
[TS] Of note, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said “Tabling articles of impeachment would be unprecedented in the history of the Senate. It's a simple as that.” [CONTEXT]: McConnell voted along with other Rs against holding Trump’s second impeachment trial before it began.
5.) POLITICO: Trump campaign asks for a 5% cut of candidates’ fundraising when they use his name and likeness.
In a letter received by Republican digital vendors this week, the Trump campaign is asking for down-ballot candidates who use his name, image and likeness in fundraising appeals to give at least 5 percent of the proceeds to the campaign.
“Beginning tomorrow, we ask that all candidates and committees who choose to use President Trump’s name, image, and likeness split a minimum of 5% of all fundraising solicitations to Trump National Committee JFC. This includes but is not limited to sending to the house file, prospecting vendors, and advertising,” Trump co-campaign managers Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita wrote in the letter, which is dated April 15.
They add: “Any split that is higher than 5% will be seen favorably by the RNC and President Trump’s campaign and is routinely reported to the highest levels of leadership within both organizations.”
[TS] I guess Round 2 of “No surprises here.”
[RELATED] Per FT: Trump has ~270,000 fewer unique donors now than at the same point in 2020:
6.) COLORADO SUN: Republicans block legislature from asking Colorado voters to let victims of child sex abuse from decades past sue their abusers
Senate Concurrent Resolution 1, which would have reopened cases for which the state’s since-repealed statute of limitations has run out, needed a supermajority of support to pass the chamber. It failed by a single vote.
[TS] This portion is incredible:
Democrats hold a 23-12 advantage in the Senate, one vote shy of a supermajority. Democrats were united in favor of the resolution. No Republicans would join them, citing concerns about the constitutionality of the measure and how it could bankrupt institutions like churches and school districts.
Republicans wanted to amend the resolution to let victims only sue their abusers and not the institutions that may have allowed the abuse to happen.
7.) WaPo: Barr, a vocal Trump critic, says he will ‘support the Republican ticket’ in November.
Former attorney general previously said voting for Trump would be “playing Russian roulette with the country,” but said Wednesday that a “continuation of the Biden administration is national suicide”
Former attorney general William P. Barr effectively endorsed former president Donald Trump on Wednesday, despite having previously criticized Trump’s conduct while in office and once comparing him to a “defiant, 9-year-old kid.”
[TS] Hat trick: “No surprises here.”
8.) BLOOMBERG: Trump Pushed to Embrace 17% Income Tax for All
Donald Trump is under pressure from economists in his circle to embrace a flat tax rate, softer trade stance and to hold the line on the state and local tax deduction.
The minds behind these proposals include Steve Forbes, of Forbes Media, former White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow and economists Stephen Moore and Arthur Laffer. The men, who aren’t official advisers to his campaign, typically emphasize unleashing the supply potential of the economy with lower taxes, and to a degree that would have been unremarkable in the 1980s but which places them outside the economics mainstream today.
9.) US vs UK salary differences:
[TS] Another salary comparison (graph + commentary) by Jeff Weniger:
In my opinion, this is an absolutely major theme in the coming years.
A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors. The overwhelming majority of people in the US have no idea just how much more money they make than the Japanese, French, British, etc.
10.) THE DISPATCH: Cheer Up, Millennials. It’s time we retired the millennial misery myth.
New analyses showing that, contra the sour online discourse, millennial finances are *actually* looking good these days.
When you control for marriage, in fact, homeownership rates among young people were actually higher in 2021 than they were in 1990.
[RELATED] The Economist: Generation Z is unprecedentedly rich. Millennials were poorer at this stage in their lives. So were baby-boomers
[TS] This article seems to fly in the face of "The first generation that will be poorer than their parents”.
Counterpoint, there’s also this:
11.) [UPDATE] NPR: Speaker Johnson is moving forward with foreign aid bills despite threat to oust him.
New House GOP proposal:
$61 billion for Ukraine & regional partners ($23B will go to replenishment of U.S. stockpiles.) Bill also covers repayment of econ support
$26 billion for Israel (incl. $9.1B for humanitarian relief).
$8 billion for Indo-Pacific
$95 billion total Per House Appropriations Committee
House Speaker Mike Johnson is moving forward with a plan to vote on separate bills to provide assistance to Ukraine, Israel and U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific, despite growing criticism from within his conference and the looming threat of being ousted from his post.
The plan is to introduce the three individual foreign aid bills; a fourth bill placing sanctions on Russia, China and Iran; and a fifth bill including border security measures, Johnson said in a message to House Republicans Wednesday. Bill text for the foreign aid bills was posted Wednesday afternoon.
JOHNSON: “Look, history judges us for what we do. this is a critical time right now… I can make a selfish decision and do something that is different but I'm doing here what I believe to be the right thing. … I think providing lethal aid to Ukraine right now is critically important. … I’m willing to take personal risk for that.”
[TS] Credit where credit is do. This is good for the free world.
Granted, I don’t know what choice he had given just that morning per Jake Sherman: “Patience is running *very* thin with Johnson. Most are giving Johnson time to put out a plan. But more and more Republicans are eyeing a discharge petition.”
Later on CNN with Jake Tapper and Johnson:
TAPPER: Why didn't you do this months ago? I mean, Ukraine is desperate for aid?
JOHNSON: Well, it takes a long time to socialize and build consensus when you have the smallest majority in us history. Also, we have had other big lifts in this Congress
[TS] Bull. The votes have always been there.
[UPDATE] Biden backs Johnson for bill. Calls for a vote this week.
[UPDATE 2] Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene introduced an amendment requiring members to “conscript in the Ukrainian military” if they vote for the Ukraine supplemental bill.
[TS] Rich that the opposition is coming from her and Rep. Massie. Worth recalling that Rep. Massie socialized with Russian spies and defended one in the press.
Also hilarious that MTG offered an amendment to make funds from the Israel funding bill available “for the development of space laser technology on the southwest border.” For the record: I AM NOT JOKING.
It’s #11 here.
Text:
[TS] She is willing into existence Jewish Space Lasers, literally.
[update] [TS] Small “u” update: I had to look into this further because I couldn’t believe it myself. Apparently, she is referring to the Iron Beam, which is a laser but terrestrial, not space-based. It defends against ordnance. I don’t know how relevant that would be on the southern border.
It’s been a while since we were under an attack of that kind in that region — UPDATE - it was in the 1800s. Probably right around the time they were workshopping that AZ abortion law…
12.) Trump is re-tweeting fake allegations about jurors on Truth Social.
[TS] The jury isn’t even sworn in and he's already coming for them.
[RELATED] Trump says jury strikes were supposed to be “unlimited.”
Trump’s complaint about strikes is BS for multiple reasons — 1) it would make no sense for strikes to be unlimited in any criminal case; 2) his lawyers have known there would be 10 strikes for months.