Israel conducted airstrikes killing Iranian generals, Iran retaliated with missiles/drones with little success, avoiding further escalation which may be the best outcome for now. Background and timeline of the Israel-Iran conflict is provided.
Stocks suffered their worst weekly decline of 2024 amid Middle East tensions and inflation concerns.
As Trump considers VP picks, he is concerned about their fundraising abilities. He suggests Marco Rubio would need to move from Florida to be eligible.
A stabbing attack killed six people at an upscale mall in Sydney, Australia.
An NPR editor accused the outlet of having a liberal bias, citing statistics showing its audience has become overwhelmingly liberal over time. NPR rejected the claims.
Trump's hush-money trial in Manhattan begins tomorrow. Updates on judge's rulings and Trump potentially violating the gag order.
Homicides are declining in major U.S. cities after spiking during the pandemic, contrasting claims that Biden policies increased crime.
GOP Gov. Chris Sununu embarrassingly stated he would vote for Trump regardless of trial outcomes, contradicting his previous criticism.
A poll showed Republicans trust Trump more than military/government sources on the Ukraine conflict, raising concerns.
Government revenue is below historic averages. Background on 2022 tax situation and efforts to simplify tax filing.
Thanks for reading Political Guyentist! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
1.) ISRAEL / IRAN
[TS] Very short summary: Israel killed a number of top Iranian generals (IRGC). Iran responded with missiles and drone attacks (as an aside - the attack on Israel Sat night was of a magnitude that Ukraine suffers on a regular basis, sometimes daily. Same drones. Similar missiles. Week after week. Month after month…) Iran’s missile attack on Israel has ended, for now, and virtually none of the missiles reached their targets.
I honestly believe this is the best outcome (assuming no further escalation). Israel shouldn’t retaliate because on net they’ve won. In short:
Israel killed 50 IRGC guys in one night.
Iran had to respond, telegraphed it, looks like zero direct hits on any targets
Everyone wins: Iran saves face, Jordan & US got to try out their systems. The guys Israel killed remain killed
[TS] Only read further if you’re interested in the longer history.
[BACKGROUND]
The conflict between Iran and Israel has been characterized by a mix of covert and overt actions, including cyberattacks, assassinations, and military strikes. The two countries have also been involved in proxy wars in Syria, Lebanon, and other parts of the Middle East. The conflict has been driven by a range of factors, including Iran's support for militant groups that are hostile to Israel, Israel's opposition to Iran's nuclear program, and broader regional rivalries.
[TIMELINE]
1979: Iran's Islamic Revolution leads to the overthrow of the Shah, who was a close ally of Israel. The new Iranian government severs ties with Israel and begins supporting anti-Israel militant groups.
1982: Israel invades Lebanon to drive out Palestinian militants, and eventually comes into conflict with Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters.
1990s: Israel reportedly begins carrying out covert operations against Iran's nuclear program.
2006: Israel and Hezbollah fight a month-long war in Lebanon.
2010: Iran and Hezbollah are accused of carrying out a bombing in Bulgaria that kills five Israeli tourists.
2012: Israeli officials accuse Iran of being behind a series of bomb attacks targeting Israeli diplomats in India, Georgia, and Thailand.
2015: Israel and Iran reach a secret agreement to avoid attacking each other's interests in Syria, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal.
2018: Israel carries out airstrikes on Iranian military targets in Syria in response to an Iranian drone incursion into Israeli airspace.
2019: Israel carries out airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria.
2020: Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani is killed in a US drone strike in Iraq, leading to an escalation in tensions between Iran and the US.
2021: Israel carries out a series of airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria.
2022: Iran launches missiles and drones towards Israeli targets in the Golan Heights, which are intercepted by Israel's missile defense system.
2023: Israel carries out airstrikes on targets in and around Damascus in response to missiles fired towards Israel from Syrian territory.
2024: Iran and Israel exchange strikes in Syria, raising fears of a broader conflict. 2024:
In April 2024, Iran and Israel exchange strikes in Syria, raising fears of a broader conflict. According to reports, the exchange of strikes began when Israel carried out airstrikes on Iranian military targets in Syria, including a IRGC headquarters near the city of Damascus. The airstrikes reportedly killed several Iranian military personnel and destroyed a number of Iranian drones and missiles.
Iran Sat night launched more than 300 drones and missiles in retaliation for an apparent Israeli strike on an Iranian embassy two weeks ago. Iran’s attacks caused minor damage at one military base, and shrapnel seriously injured a 7-year-old girl from an Arab Bedouin community in southern Israel. But Israel intercepted most of the drones and missiles. The U.S. and Jordan also shot some down.
The exchange of strikes marked a significant escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, and raised concerns about the possibility of a wider war in the Middle East.
The US and other countries called for restraint and urged both sides to avoid further escalation.
[TS] One reason to believe Israel may respond: “Any normalization of direct strikes by Iran is intolerable to the Israeli public and leadership,” The Economist magazine wrote. Dana Stroul, the former top Middle East policy official at the Pentagon, said, “Given how significant this attack was, it is difficult to see how Israel cannot respond.”
[UPDATE] Axios: Biden told Netanyahu the U.S. won't support an Israeli counterattack on Iran.
"You got a win. Take the win," Biden told Netanyahu, according to the official.
[TS] Totally agree with this.
[UPDATE 2] Some folks on the right are calling for escalation. Eg:
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC)
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) “Biden
— we must move quickly and launch aggressive retaliatory strikes on Iran.”
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
[TS] This has spurred a lot of voices in Congress to request an aid package to Israel: Per NPR: House GOP leaders plan to take up Israel aid after Iran attack.
Hopefully, this can get bundled with Ukraine & Taiwan.
As far as Ukraine is concerned, from ATLANTIC: Biden stands with America’s allies. Trump doesn’t:
In 2022, a Democratic House approved 4 aid requests to Ukraine totalling $75 billion. Since then, a Republican House has refused all aid to Ukraine. It's not "the United States" that is abandoning its friends. It is the Trump Republicans.
Six months ago, President Biden sent Congress a request for $100+ billion for Ukraine/Israel/border. The request included funding to triple Israel's Iron Dome. Trump Republicans refused to act. They hate Ukraine, but they are not friends to Israel either.
Let’s just hope no one is getting their national security advice from this guy:
[UPDATE 3] Trump weighs in on Truth Social:
[CONTEXT] Iran did attack US assets and put US military at risk during Trump’s presidency:
May 2019 - Four commercial ships, including two Saudi oil tankers, were sabotaged off the UAE coast. The U.S. blamed Iran, which denied involvement.
June 2019 - Iran shot down an unmanned U.S. military surveillance drone that it claimed had violated its airspace over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. said the drone was in international airspace.
September 2019 - Iran was blamed for a major missile and drone attack on Saudi Aramco oil facilities, which disrupted global oil supplies. The U.S. said Iran was responsible.
December 2019 - An Iranian-backed militia in Iraq, Kataib Hezbollah, killed a U.S. defense contractor in a rocket attack on a Iraqi military base.
January 2020 - After the U.S. killed top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad, Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles at two bases in Iraq housing U.S. troops. Over 100 U.S. service members were diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries.
2.) Stocks Suffer Sharpest Weekly Decline of 2024
Stocks slumped as tensions in the Middle East and concerns about inflation spurred caution among investors. The S&P 500 had its worst week of the year.
3.) NYT: As Trump Ponders V.P. Contenders, He Asks: Can They Help Me Raise Cash?
Donald Trump’s concerns about money may have entered his vice-presidential calculations, along with political considerations and which contenders he likes the look of.
[TS] Really the only thing I wanted to highlight here was about Sen. “Lil’ Marco” Rubio (R-FL). I’ve covered Rubio’s potential VP in a previous Trumpdate. The issue is they both live in FL, which the constitution says you can’t have. But trump has a solution:
While Mr. Trump maintains additional homes in New Jersey and New York, and switched his residency as president, he has told people Mr. Rubio would have to legally move to another state to join the ticket.
Mr. Trump has told these people that it would probably be difficult for Mr. Rubio to move his family but that Florida voters would be too upset to lose the former president as a resident.
[TS] It’ll never happen (ie Trump picking Rubio) but the sad thing is: Rubio would probably do it. He’s thirsty for that VP pick. Granted, not the first time he’s been thirsty:
4.) There was a stabbing attack that killed six in an upscale mall in Sydney, Australia.
5.) THE FREE PRESS: Uri Berliner, a senior NPR editor accused his outlet of having a liberal bias.
NPR’s coverage of multiple issues — Covid, Hunter Biden’s laptop, the war in Gaza — shows that “people at every level of NPR have comfortably coalesced around the progressive worldview,”
Back in 2011, although NPR’s audience tilted a bit to the left, it still bore a resemblance to America at large. Twenty-six percent of listeners described themselves as conservative, 23 percent as middle of the road, and 37 percent as liberal.
By 2023, the picture was completely different: only 11 percent described themselves as very or somewhat conservative, 21 percent as middle of the road, and 67 percent of listeners said they were very or somewhat liberal. We weren’t just losing conservatives; we were also losing moderates and traditional liberals.
[UPDATE] Edith Chapin, an NPR news executive, rejected Berliner’s claims. “We’re proud to stand behind the exceptional work that our desks and shows do to cover a wide range of challenging stories,” she wrote.
6.) Trump’s hush-money trial in Manhattan begins tomorrow.
[RELATED] Judge Merchan rejected Donald Trump's attempts to indefinitely adjourn his first criminal trial, after Trump complains about "prejudicial pretrial publicity."
The Court rules that Trump can conduct "a thorough, thoughtful and effective voir dire" as the "proper remedy" to his concerns.
Per Katie Phang (MSNBC): Judge Merchan also notes in his ruling that the Manhattan DA's Office did not pressure Allen Weisselberg into his guilty plea for perjury and that Trump's "accusations are entirely unsupported. In fact, defense counsel clearly ignores the words contained in the official transcript."
[RELATED 2] It appears as though Donald Trump has just violated the gag order by attacking the credibility of witness Michael Cohen (his former lawyer and “fixer”) on Truth Social
[TS] Nothing will happen from this.
[RELATEDUPDATE] Documents case (w/ Judge Cannon) Trump is asking Judge Cannon to delay his May 9 due date for his rule 16 expert disclosures and his CIPA section 5 notice because he has this whole other criminal trial in New York he has to attend. Cannon just recently set this deadline knowing about the NY trial.
[UPDATE TO DOCS CASE] Jack Smith has responded to Trump’s delay attempt in the documents case:
Jack Smith opens by reminding the court that she set the May 9 deadline very recently. April 10th to be exact
Smith says Cannon was well aware of the NY trial date, and posits that trump assigned the same lawyers to multiple cases to use overlapping criminal proceedings to delay one another.
Smith then reminds Cannon of 11th circuit factors, that trump has local lawyers that can handle this, and that the original deadline was in November
7.) [TS] I’ve covered this multiple times but it bears repeating because good news isn’t “news.” But homicides are dropping (per WSJ):
In all 10 cities with the most 2023 homicides—for which we have data—homicides are falling. The pandemic crime wave is crashing hard.
[TS] If these percentage decline numbers were percentage growth numbers, it would be the lede of every cable news show:
[TS] Whether they were the direct response of his policies or not (likely no), these increases happened under Trump and the drop happened under Biden (unlike what is reported on Fox/Newsmax or tweeted by GOP representatives).
Seems like the 2020 wave followed the exact same pattern as the 2014 wave:
massive anti-police protests
reduction in police proactivity
increase in offending among high-frequency offenders
mean reversion
[UPDATE] [TS] Just wanted to add some more data/context here. As some have pointed out, the snap above doesn’t include major cities (but they *are* in the article linked) ala:
-16% in NYC
-9% in Chicago
-9% in KC
-7% in DC
-26% in Houston
-2% in MSP
[TS] Also, the above rates are not below 2019 levels, just 2020. But 2024 is projected to be less (based on Q1 ‘24 data) per Jeff Asher (via Crimealytics):
Sununu was a previous critic of Trump and a Haley supporter in the republican primaries says he’ll vote for Trump no matter the outcome of trials.
[TS] The entire interview is worth a watch, but this ending sums up what a coward he is. It’s an indictment on his character:
[TS] Just as an FYI on Sununu’s comment about “me and 51% of America.” That is 100% wrong. 51% of America has never voted for Trump. He got 46.1% in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020:
9.) [TS] Remarkable poll results from CBS on Republicans & Ukraine.
CBS had a polling “How Ukraine aid views are shaped by Cold War memories, partisanship…and Donald Trump — CBS News poll” and some of the results were astonishing.
I just want to pick out this one especially:
For information about the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Republicans put their trust of Donald Trump higher than the U.S. military/Pentagon; higher than conservative media sources; and far more than the U.S. State Department.
[TS] I worry about their ability to separate fact from fiction.
The surge in 2022 was a mirage - one time capital gains and and big surprise inflation ahead of inflation indexing.
[RELATED] Taxes are due TODAY! (Apr 15th).
[TS] Reminder that TurboTax/Intuit has spent millions of dollars for decades lobbying to make filing taxes harder. I’m always reminded of this:
[TS] It is strange that other countries have figured this out but we’re beholden to a few corporations to file taxes. Luckily, the government is making a big push for free tax tools. It rolled out a few programs this year in select states (I covered this in a previous Trumpdate).
Thanks for reading Political Guyentist! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.
