Russian strikes on Ukrainian power plants, hindering aid due to Congress delays. WSJ's front page on its detained reporter in Russia. Corporate profits hit new highs while GDP rebounds post-COVID. Arizona GOP aims to restrict early voting. Trump allegedly appointed Jeffrey Clark as acting AG on Jan 3rd. Housing trends show a shortage. Policies fail to boost birth rates, raising concerns. Trump shares an edited video depicting a hog-tied Biden. Negativity drives online news consumption. Criticism of Trump's 2028 ambitions and Biden's outreach to anti-Trump Republicans. Controversy around Biden's transgender visibility statement coinciding with Easter.
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1.) WaPo: Russia strikes power plants in heavy blow to Ukrainian electrical grid.
ABC: Ukraine's armed forces say Moscow has launched a large-scale attack on energy infrastructure, with a mass barrage of 99 drones and missiles hitting regions across the country
Maria Avdeeva (Research Director at the European Expert Association in Ukraine):
Russia massively attacked Ukrainian energy facilities. At least three power plants were damaged. Dnipro, Poltava, and Cherkasy regions were targeted. Explosions were also reported in Khmelnytsky, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk regions
[TS] The destruction of Ukraine's energy infrastructure was previously impossible because Ukraine had enough ammunition for its air defense system. Now, thanks to GOP / Speaker Johnson and Trump, cities will go dark while the US Congress is on vacation.
This should be outrageous to all of us.
If you’ll allow me to stand on my pedestal for just a brief moment:
The moral imperative is clear: Russia's unjustified war and attempt to subjugate a free people by force must be opposed through unified action by all nations that cherish justice and human rights over brute force. Ukraine's fight is everyone's fight against tyranny and oppression. It is a just cause that must prevail.
The core principles that underpin the modern world order - sovereignty, territorial integrity and self-determination - are all being trampled over by Russia’s naked aggression.
And to think of their stated reasons: to "demilitarize" and "denazify" Ukraine. Ridiculous on its face.
Maybe you’re worried about the cost?
Current cost: To date, we have provided approximately $44.2 billionin military assistance since Russia’s invasion February 24, 2022 (more than $47 billion in military assistance since Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014).
If we expand that figure to include humanitarian ($1.6B) and financial ($26.4) aid - that figure becomes $75 billion (per Kiel Institute for the World Economy)
The Putin regime has spent approx. a quarter of its budget on the war, U.S. support for Ukraine to date is closer to 1.5 percent of our federal budget.
Our 2023 Defense Budget was $857.9 billion which makes the $44.2B aid around 5% of our annual defense budget.
Here’s how the funding breaks down by segment (per CFR):
Compare that to the sacrifices the Ukrainian’s are making.
Can we? Can we even imagine them as Americans? We’ve never fought a war on our soil in our nation’s history against an adversary - except ourselves.
The Ukrainian sacrifice is enormous The toll in blood and treasure the Ukrainian’s are paying is monumental.
Where does that money go?
Loans, training, logistics equipment aaaaand —
Munitions. That we’re making stateside:
I think it all paints a rather compelling picture as to why we should be supporting Ukraine against Russia’s unprovoked invasion.
[TS] As an aside: There are countless stories detailing our national munition stockpile and the timelines to resupply (literally half a decade to rebuild some). Stories like:
AP: Milley: US has long way to go to build munitions stockpile
FP: The U.S. Military Is Running Short on Ammunition
Reuters: South Korea to lend 500,000 rounds of artillery shells to US
FT: How arming Ukraine is stretching the US defense industry
PBS: Arms manufacturers struggle to supply Ukraine with enough ammunition
CSIS: Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems
“…the stockpile of US weapons and those of allies are getting “dangerously low,” the commander of US Air Forces in Europe (USAFE) said.
I don’t get it. We spent $8 TRILLIONon the global war on terror over 20 years. This really does beg the question: Why do we seem to have such a limited ability to manufacture munitions? Shouldn’t we be highly proficient at it? The best, even?
Despite our considerable investment in defense, there seems to be this dearth of meaningful military capability. It’s frustrating. The sheer opportunity cost on display here…
2.) [TS] Powerful front page by the WSJ:
(Friday’s (29th) front page highlights Evan Gershkovich, one of their journalists who’s been imprisoned in Russian since Mar 29, 2023)
Full Cover:
[UPDATE] Four top leaders of Congress issue a rare joint statement demanding the release of WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich on the one-year anniversary of his detainment in Russia:
Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) - Senate majority leader
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) - Senate minority leader
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) - House Speaker
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) - House minority leader
[UPDATE 2] Biden and Anthony Blinken (Sec. of State) also issued statements.
[TS] Has Trump ever commented on this? Not just at the 1-year anniversary, but ever? I don’t believe he has. That is a through line with Trump. Despite his flip-flopping throughout his life this has been a constant. He will *not* disparage Putin/Russia. I’m not talking about his presidency, or even recently. This goes back 40 years. Can anyone post an example? I’d be curious.
3.) Corporate profits rose to a new all time high in Q4 of 2023.
Per Kathy Jones (Schwab Center for Financial Research):
[TS] Equity markets seem to be reflecting this.
4.) AZCENTRAL: AZ GOP wants to scrap Arizona early voting. The plan is 1 vote away from the November ballot.
Arizona Republicans are on the cusp of putting a measure on November's ballot that would end in-person early voting & require an excuse for voters under 65 to vote by mail.
Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) can't veto this since it's a ballot measure, so it would be up to voters to reject it.
Arizona Dems need to flip just two swing seats in each legislative chamber this fall to win majorities & start expanding voting access
[TS] Ultimately, it would be up to the voters, but I wouldn’t hold my breath with the amount of misinformation that has been spread around voting — especially mail-in ballots. Decisions based on incomplete or poor information is not optimal. Disinformation campaigns work well and they can form a durable bond on voter’s minds.
For a point of comparison: Look at energy policy. What’s the safest of these (per terawatt hour):
Coal
Gas
Oil
Nuclear
Hydropower
Wind
Nuclear. And it produces the least amount of carbon out of ALL forms of energy production. The only thing safer is solar (but it produces more carbon via panel production):
Compared with greenhouse emissions:
[TS] “But TS!” I can hear you say, “You didn’t show the cost per terawatt.” And that’s true, I didn’t. In general, nuclear has gone up over the years as it gets phased out and renewables have plummeted:
5.) POLITICO: Trump actually did appoint coup-backing Jeffrey Clark as acting attorney general: report
Did Trump actually appoint Jeffrey Clark to lead the Justice Department? Clark’s lawyer just said yes. In the days leading up to Jan. 6, Trump believed Clark would harness the department to buttress false claims of voter fraud.
It’s one of the lingering mysteries of the Jan. 6 investigation: Did Donald Trump briefly put Jeffrey Clark — a top ally in his bid to subvert the 2020 election — in charge of the entire Justice Department?
On Thursday, Clark’s lawyer Harry MacDougald offered an answer: “There was a period on Jan. 3 when he was the acting attorney general until the president changed his mind later that day.”
The comment by MacDougald — during a disciplinary trial that could result in Clark losing his law license — amplified a little-noticed assertion that Clark’s team made in a pretrial filing. It’s the first time anyone on Clark’s behalf has publicly asserted that Trump did in fact appoint Clark to lead the Justice Department.
Clark, who was seated nearby as MacDougald made the comment, has pointedly declined to discuss the matter publicly, claiming his conversations with Trump are shielded by executive privilege and other protections, particularly while he faces criminal charges alongside Trump in Atlanta related to the episode.
6.) [UPDATE] GDP Data by state - all states except Hawaii, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Delaware have now seen their GDP fully recover from COVID.
7.) [RELATED] Per Jason Furman (Harvard Econ Prof): Real disposable personal income per capita fell for the second month in a row--but has risen by a respectable 1.1% over the last year and is roughly about CBO's pre-pandemic forecast.
At the same time the American consumer continues to behave very optimistically. Real personal consumption expenditures were up at a 5.3% annual rate in Feb despite high headline inflation. Up 2.4% over the last year. And remain > CBO's pre-pandemic forecast (chart is per capita).
The high spending level is being supported by a low saving rate. At the same time borrowing has risen and defaults have risen--but from very low levels to back to something more like we saw in 2019. IF real incomes keep rising could justify continued strong consumption.
[ECON-RELATED] The very gradual erosion of the dollar's reserve currency share continues, as as does the trend in favor of "nontraditional reserve currencies:”
8.) The median new apartment in the US was just over 1000 sqft last year, the smallest size since 1992:
Indicates just how brutal the housing shortage is, given builders are trying to squeeze in as many units as possible, and how much demand for solo living has increased.
[TS] Build more homes! Supply supply supply! Biden on the other hand:
Countries have greatly expanded spending on family-friendly policies, but birth rates continue to fall far below the replacement level:
The relationship between family-friendly policy and birth rates is weak. Culture seems to play a larger role
[REMARKABLE STAT]: The most common number of children a British or American woman has by her mid-thirties is now zero:
The most recent part of the downward trend in births has been driven not by people deciding to have two children instead of three, but by a rise in the share deciding not to have any at all.
[TS] Seems like that will be the cause of the nursing home crisis. I know there is a lot of chatter around baby boomers, but what’s it going to look like in 50yrs for 30%+ of the 80yo Millennials with no kids?
10.) NYT: Trump Shares Video Featuring Image of a Hog-Tied Biden
Mr. Trump has previously posted doctored photos and videos depicting him physically attacking political opponents, focusing particularly on Mr. Biden in the last year. The former president has, for example, repeatedly shared videos depicting him hitting Mr. Biden with golf balls. Mr. Trump also posted a photo last year of him holding a baseball bat next to Alvin L. Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, who is prosecuting Mr. Trump in connection to a hush money payment made to a porn star during the 2016 campaign.
This month, Mr. Trump said that some migrants were “not people” and, amid a discussion of the auto industry, that the country would face a “blood bath” if he lost the election. A few days later, he attacked Jewish Democrats in a radio interview, saying that Jews who vote for Democrats hate their religion and Israel.
On Saturday, Mr. Trump posted to Truth Social a new attack on the daughter of Justice Juan M. Merchan, who is overseeing his hush money trial in Manhattan.
The attack linked to a news article that displays two pictures of the daughter, both of which appeared in Mr. Trump’s post.
[TS] What is ironic about Trump is his supporters always claim how unfair the media etc. etc. is and how much worse he has it and how much more he has to deal with, when in actuality, it’s the exact opposite. Trump is graded on an astounding curve. Would any politician, let alone person, get away with what he’s doing/done? Further, given the chance to do the things he’s done, would they?
Would Joe Biden tweet an image of Trump hog-tied? It’s absurd to even consider.
There is a massive asymmetry between the parties. On second thought though —- Are we sure Trump sharing a picture of hogtied Biden wasn’t actually a commentary on the US auto industry?
Alongside Charles Pinckney and Adlai Stevenson III, Donald Trump is a two-time loser of the presidential popular vote. In 2024, Trump will join William Jennings Bryan and Henry Clay as a three-time loser. American Conservative Mag is arguing for giving Trump the chance to make it 4 out of 4.
[TS] We should take these signals seriously.
13.) POLITICO: “Why Won’t Biden Court the Anti-Trump GOP?
The Biden campaign hasn’t reached out to *any* of the Republican leaders who’ve said they won’t support Trump. It’s political malpractice. They also haven’t reached out to senior former Trump officials who oppose him.
And Christie isn’t the only anti-Trump Republican or independent waiting for their phone to ring.
Prominent former GOP officeholders, from George W. Bush to Mike Pence to Paul Ryan, also haven’t been contacted.
The same goes for former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan,
I reached out to every current Republican lawmaker who has refused to commit to Trump in the general election. Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) Mitt Romney (Utah), Todd Young (Indiana), Bill Cassidy (Louisiana) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) all said the same: they’ve not heard from Biden. “It is surprising,” Collins told me. “It’s especially surprising because President Biden does understand the Senate, he has personal relationships with some of us.”
14.) [TS] You’ll see articles about Trump posting a photo of Judge Merchan’s daughter. Yes — but…
Trump did not post a photo of Judge Merchan’s daughter — he posted a link to a NY Post story and the link preview included a photo of the daughter. But it’s just not credible at this point to say that Trump doesn’t know what he’s doing.
15.) [TS] I wasn’t going to cover this but it just keep coming up. The right (at this point every news station or media personality - and now Trump posted a “Statement”) is up-in-arms about Biden supposedly declaring “Trans Visibility Day” on Easter Sunday.
The WH issued the statement on Mar 29th (not *on* Easter)
Trans Visibility day (Mar 31st) has been a thing since 2009. Biden did not invent/declare this day.
Easter does not fall on Mar 31st every year - it’s just a coincidence that it did this year. His WH spoke about about it ever year.
Biden is a gall-dang Catholic! His white has an easter bunny on every page!
[TS] You know what other proclamation he did on Mar 29th? A Proclamation on Cesar Chavez Day, 2024. Why isn’t this gaining as much ground? No one seems to care…
One quick comment - In trump’s statement he had the phrase "Catholics and Christians.” News to me!
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