Trumpdate (3.22.24)

1.) Republican Study Committee (RSC) [Lead by Rep. Kevin Hern (R-OK 1st)] released a 2025 budget:

• https://hern.house.gov/uploadedfiles/section_by_section_-_rsc_fy_2025_budget.pdf

Notable highlights:

• 53.7% cut in Medicaid spending based on CBO’s 2024 baseline per GeorgetownCCF

  • 

  • https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2024/03/21/latest-house-republican-study-committee-budget-plan-again-includes-draconian-medicaid-cuts/

• Raising retirement age for future retirees

  • “modest adjustments to the retirement age for future retirees to account for increases in life expectancy”

    • [TS] Functionally, “raising the retirement age” means changing the benefit amounts. “Raising,” in this case, just means cutting benefit levels.

• “Support unapologetically pro-life policies and combat the Biden administration’s radical abortion-on-demand agenda by championing 38 pro-life pieces of legislation.”

• Tax cuts

• Deregulation

• Equip Taiwan with weapons such as anti-ship missiles, air-defense capabilities, and drones to defend against encroachment by China.

• Banning CRT (in military, etc.)

[RELATED UPDATE] Speaker Johnson (R-LA 4th) on CNBC says he supports fiscal commission only if it can’t raise taxes. Says he opposes cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

[TS] Both parties don’t seem to want to reckon with the ballooning debt. There are only two ways to reduce the deficit (and subsequent debt)

—A) Raise revenue (either through increased growth, raising taxes, or both)

—B) Reduce spending (Social Security & Medicare are two of the largest budget items).

For reference via USAFacts:

Deficit:

Taxes/Budget:

2.) BLOOMBERG: Yemen’s Houthis Tell China, Russia Their Ships Won’t Be Targeted

• https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-21/china-russia-reach-agreement-with-yemen-s-houthis-on-red-sea-ships?embedded-checkout=true

[TS] Not surprising, given their previous actions.

3.) The Biden admin intensifies calls for a ceasefire.

The Biden administration is preparing a full-court press to get a ceasefire. Their plan has several planks, all of which they hope will move Israel and Hamas simultaneously toward a ceasefire and a two-state solution. Here are the elements:

A—Talks in DC over Rafah. The US is trying to get several concessions from Israel in return for permitting an attack in the city. That would include concessions on a day after and moves towards a ceasefire.

B—Talks in Qatar. CIA chief William Burns is heading to Doha to help with the ceasefire talks. He is also putting pressure on Qatar to pressure Hamas into accepting.

C—Blinken is arriving in the Middle East. He will visit Israel and try to pressure Netanyahu into accepting the ceasefire and a day after plan.

D—Blinken will then go to Saudi Arabia to shore up and revive the promise of Saudi normalization as a carrot for Israel to accept the terms.

E— Leaks that new sanctions will take place if Israel does not move with the plan, taking the form of the stick.

The move presents dangers and opportunities for Israel. The Biden administration is so desperate to get this going that it will be willing to give Israel a lot in order to cooperate. But if Israel refuses to play ball, it may find itself isolated. Israel should use this opportunity to get permission to go into Rafah and destroy Hamas in return for willingness to end the conflict right after and enter a process towards a two-state solution and normalization with Saudi Arabia.

Summary by Shaiel Ben-Ephraim via

https://twitter.com/academic_la/status/1770960547993010507

4.) NOVO NORDISK: Novo Nordisk announces that “Wegovy® approved in the US for cardiovascular risk reduction in people with overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease.”

• https://www.novonordisk.com/news-and-media/news-and-ir-materials/news-details.html?id=167030

Novo Nordisk today announced that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved a label expansion for Wegovy^® based on a supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for the indication of reducing risks of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including cardiovascular death, non-fatal heart attack (myocardial infarction) or non-fatal stroke in adults with either overweight or obesity and established cardiovascular disease (CVD).

Wegovy is a brand name for semaglutide, a prescription medication used for weight management in adults with obesity or overweight conditions, along with a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. It works by mimicking the activity of a hormone in the body called GLP-1, which helps regulate appetite and food intake. Wegovy is administered by injection and is typically used in conjunction with lifestyle changes to help individuals achieve and maintain weight loss. A similar GLP-1 receptor agonist drug: Ozempic.

Wegovy was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for chronic weight management in adults with obesity or overweight with at least one weight-related condition in June 2021.

[TS] Remarkable how fast this was approved and removes a big barrier to Medicare coverage. As a side note: I think the only way to effectively combat obesity is through technology, in this case: drugs. Does that mean we should discount or abandon education? Lifestyle choices? Nutrition or fitness? Absolutely not. There should be an increased focus on these. And I would support programs and funds to expand them nationwide. But, I tend to believe that anything rooted in our evolution/biology — in this case our want for calories/sweets — can not be properly tamed without “technology.” I’ll define technology broadly as the application of scientific knowledge, tools, methods, and systems to solve problems.

Consider by analogy - pregnancy. It is innate in us to want to reproduce, — to have sex. We are prewired to have a desire to promulgate our genes. Similar to our cravings for food, we also have cravings for sex. What can reduce unwanted pregnancies? Education? Lifestyle? Abstinence? Yes to all. But what in conjunction to these can assist? Technology. In this case in the form of birth control: Condoms, spermicide, vasectomy, IUD, birth control pills etc.

Technology isn’t the be-all and end-all. Certain technologies can exacerbate our worst qualities. Look at what social media does to us. Hate > love. Lies spread faster than truth. Rage is addicting.

—But getting back to Wegovy: If I was a betting man, I could imagine that the widespread use of these drugs will have HUGE impacts to the economy:

• Longer lifespans - touches almost everything (workforce dynamics, pensions & retirement systems, consumer spending, investments, social services/infrastructure, wealth transfer)

• Reduced medical costs related to obesity (heart disease [the #1 killer in the US], type 2 diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, certain cancers, joint issues etc.)

The ripple effects here are significant. I predict food companies will lobby against prescribing these drugs.

Fast food companies, candy companies, snack/junk food companies etc. all have a vested interest in satisfying our urge to consume. Drugs like theses might cut into their bottom line and could reduce sales.

Let’s hope there are no serious long term side effects to these drugs as they have a real potential to benefit the population.

5.) GEORGIARECORDER: Georgia House sends bill to restrict union formation at state-subsidized firms heads to governor’s desk.

• https://georgiarecorder.com/briefs/georgia-house-sends-bill-to-restrict-union-formation-at-state-subsidized-firms-heads-to-governors-desk/

—A bill seeking to restrict new labor unions is ready for Gov. Brian Kemp’s pen after the state House passed it Wednesday along party lines.

—Senate Bill 362, sponsored by Brunswick Republican Sen. Mike Hodges, would prevent new companies moving to Georgia from accepting state incentives if they agree to allow workers to form a union without a secret ballot.The other commonly used path to unionization the bill attempts to avoid is called card check. It is less formal and involves collecting signatures from employees, usually on cards.

—Only 5.4% of Georgia workers were represented by unions in 2022, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, down from 5.8% the year before. That’s lower than all but six other states. The bill would not affect any of them, only new businesses moving to the state.

6.) 70-25, Senate votes to disapprove rule allowing imports of fresh beef from Paraguay into the United States.

[TS] That's a veto-proof majority.

• https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-joint-resolution/62

Biden admin “strongly opposes” the move. The bill was led by Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Tester is challenging Biden’s decision under the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to overturn federal agency actions within a limited period of time. Under the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Act, lawmakers are required to introduce a resolution disapproving of a federal agency action within 60 days of being notified of such action.

Per THEHILL

The resolution has the support of ranchers and farm groups such as the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, the Livestock Marketing Association, the National Farmers Union, the Montana Farmers Union, the Montana Stockgrowers Association, and the Montana Farmer Bureau Federation.

[TS] I think the Biden admin is right on this one. They should allow this through. Although inflation is down (ie the rate of price increases) the food prices themselves remain high. This would make food cheaper. Why block it? — And a democrat no less to a democratic president.

7.) AP: Trump’s invite to major donors prioritizes the committee paying his legal bills over the RNC.

Donald Trump’s new joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee directs donations to his campaign and a political action committee that pays the former president’s legal bills before the RNC gets a cut, according to a fundraising invitation obtained by The Associated Press.

The unorthodox diversion of funds to the Save America PAC makes it more likely that Republican donors could see their money go to Trump’s lawyers, who have received at least $76 million over the last two years to defend him against four felony indictments and multiple civil cases. Some Republicans are already troubled that Trump’s takeover of the RNC could shortchange the cash-strapped party.

[UPDATE] Trump campaign releases a statement to the AP story:

“Save America also covers a very active and robust post-Presidency office and other various expenses not related to fighting the illegal witch-hunts perpetrated by Crooked Joe Biden.”

[UPDATE 2] CNBC’s Finance Reporter Brian Schwartz fact checks the Trump campaign.

“Out of $7.2 million it spent in February, Save America spent over $5 million on legal fees last month. The amount spent on legal fees exceeded the total Save America raised last month. In the final six months of 2023, the PAC spent over $20 million on legal.”

[TS] Yowza.

8.) NEWJERSEYGLOBE: Menendez won’t run in Democratic Senate primary, but might mount independent bid.

—U.S. Senator has until June 4 to file as an independent, and until August 16 to drop out

[TS] Ridiculous. Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) should not run and has no business being a Senator.

9.) CBSNEWS: As Ukraine aid languishes, 15 House members work on end run to approve funds.

Standing next to the roaring fireplace in the lobby off the House floor, GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska paused and then said of the effort to pass Ukraine funding in the House, "I think we're playing a pretty good game of chess here."   

But it's unclear who makes the next move.

Bacon and 14 House colleagues are attempting an unorthodox, novel and — critics say — a long-shot effort to force a vote to provide emergency financial aid to Ukraine. The bipartisan group of House members have signed a formal "discharge petition" to help provide billions of dollars in aid for war-torn Ukraine, where money and munitions are in dwindling supply.  

The discharge petition, organized by suburban Philadelphia Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, is the latest version of a rarely successful parliamentary technique to force a House vote on a measure that is opposed or otherwise blocked by House leadership. 

[UPDATE] Rep. Ken Buck (R-CO 4th) added his name to the House discharge petition for the Senate national security funding bill, the 188th signature and the first Republican to sign it. The signature will remain valid and count towards the 218 threshold even after his resignation

[TS] It’s about time. I hope this works and Ukraine gets the funding it desperately needs. I have yet to see a rational reason for refusing aid. “Because Trump doesn’t want to help Ukraine” doesn’t cut it.

10.) Presidential Campaign Fundraising update per the latest FEC filings. Summary Courtesy of Kyle Giffin:

President Biden has a major fundraising advantage over Trump, according to the latest FEC filings. In February:

• Biden's campaign raised $21.3 million. It has $71 million in cash on hand.

• Trump's campaign raised $10.9 million. It has $33.5 million in cash on hand.

• The DNC raised $16.6 million. Cash on hand: $26.5 million.

• The RNC raised $10.7 million. Cash on hand: $11.3 million.

Nikki Haley, who's no longer running, reported more cash on hand at the end of February than the RNC.

11.) REPRODUCTIVE RIGHT NEWS:

A) Four GOP House Reps:

•Mathew Rosendale (R-Montana 2nd)

•Mary Miller (R-IL 15th)

•Josh Brecheen (R-OK 2nd)

•Bob Good (R-VA 5th)

wrote to Denis Richard McDonough [the Secretary of Veterans Affairs nominated Biden] to protest Biden’s IVF expansion for veterans. In the letter:

IVF is morally dubious and should not be subsidized by the American taxpayer. It is well known that IVF treatments result in a surplus of embryos after the best ones are tested and selected. These embryos are then frozen—at significant cost to the parents—abandoned, or cruelly discarded. Parents’ uncertainty of what to do with the additional embryos and inclination to leave them frozen for many years rather than discarding them points to their inherent humanity

[TS] I think most people would take qualm with the phrase “IVF is morally dubious.” The well being of conscious creatures should be the north star of anyone’s moral compass. Embryros are not conscious. There is no scientific evidence they have the ability to suffer. The argument that it is “cruel” to discard them is baseless. Only one party has an interest in protecting reproductive freedoms in the US.

12.) Trump VP News per NBCNEWS: Marco Rubio says it would be an 'honor' to be offered a spot as Trump's VP.

-Says he hasn't talked to Trump about it directly.

13.) Trump doubles down on “bloodbath” comments during interview with Nigel Farage. CNN Clip:

[TS] When asked about a comment/statement, Trump always doubles down.

A media clip comment: It’s important not to take Trump’s comments out of context. The media has had a tendency to clip a phrase/comment that seems bad out of context to generate clicks/views. The biggest example with Trump has to be his “both sides” comment in Charleston, SC.

That being said, in original “bloodbath” comment it was not clear that he was referring to just “the economy” or “cars” as his supporters have said. He made an aside during his speech, which he does frequently. It was easy to interpret his “bloodbath” comments as a general comment vs specifically about the speech topic.