Trumpdate (12.4.24):
South Korea’s martial law and China’s mineral moratorium
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Political Turmoil: South Korean President Yoon declares and quickly rescinds martial law amid parliamentary rejection.
Syrian Conflict: Turkey-backed militias target Kurds as Syrian regime faces challenges and potential Russian withdrawal.
Labor Market: Job openings per unemployed worker at 1.1 in October, showing a loosening trend.
Trade Tensions: China bans exports of critical materials (gallium, germanium, antimony) to the US in response to chip sanctions.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Federal Workforce: Biden administration secures work-from-home protections for federal employees before potential Trump administration.
Health Policy: Study shows trans-fat bans in restaurants correlate with reduced cardiovascular disease mortality.
Medical Research: Over 20 vaccine trials underway for cancer prevention.
Urban Housing: New York City plans to legalize accessory dwelling units to increase affordable housing.
1.) South Korean President Yoon Declares Martial Law
Scuffles at South Korea's parliament as special forces take control under martial law
[TS] That lady is bad ass.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced that he was imposing martial law, accusing the opposition of paralyzing the government with "anti-state activities".
It caused a tense night of political drama in which troops surrounded parliament.
Amid widespread protests, military deployments, and parliamentary rejection, Yoon rescinded the order hours later. The move has spurred domestic and international criticism, with calls for his impeachment.
[TS] The military immediately stopped trying to arrest the entire parliament after they voted martial law down.
In South Korea the president’s party gave him zero votes for his coup. The parliament voted 190-0.
By comparison: 139 Republican Congressmen and 8 Senators voted to certify Trump’s attempted coup.
[RELATED] Even before this, his approval was <20%
2.) JERUSALEM POST: Turkey-backed militias target Kurds amid Syrian regime’s collapse – analysis
Renewed violence displaces Kurds as HTS and Turkey-backed militias advance.
HTS has assured Kurds in its territories they can stay but has asked the SDF to leave. Exploiting HTS advances, Turkey-backed SNA attacked Kurds in Tal Rifaat, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, HTS gains near Hama challenge Assad’s forces, while Iran and the West call for de-escalation.
[SEMI- RELATED] First Signs Russia Is Evacuating Navy Ships From Syria
The Russian Navy's base at Tartus in Syria is crucial to its support of the Assad regime, and its ambitions on the world stage. The dramatic shift in the front lines in Syria now puts the base at risk. There are indications that Russia may be evacuating its naval vessels.
Rebel Progress UPDATE
The worst scenario for Assad and his allies seems to be building up fast - new fronts opening closer to regime & Iranian core interests, near the borders with Iraq and Lebanon and close to the capital. This is where Iran would deploy if so, not northward
Meanwhile, after relatively slow advances in the north, the rebels have been made new gains near Hama. It was thought the advances halted but apparently not yet .
3.) Job Openings per Unemployed Worker for Oct was 1.1
A bit looser than pre-COVID
Much looser than 2022
Stable since summer
4.) AP: China bans exports to US of gallium, germanium, antimony in response to chip sanctions
Beijing says the commodities have "dual-use" military use. The Chinese guidance is a bit unclear, saying the "in principle" ban only applies for sales to "military users."
Use cases for each:
GALLIUM (China accounts for 80% of the world’s production)
• Semiconductors: Used in gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN) for LEDs, solar panels, and high-speed electronic devices.
• Thermometers: Replaces mercury in high-temperature thermometers due to its low melting point (near room temperature).
• Medical Applications: Utilized in diagnostic imaging agents and cancer treatment.
• Alloys: Added to metals to reduce their melting points.
• Mirror Coatings: Used for producing highly reflective mirrors.
GERMANIUM (China accounts for 60% of the world’s supply)
• Fiber Optics: A key component in fiber optic systems for telecommunications due to its transparency to infrared light.
• Infrared Optics: Used in thermal imaging devices and infrared spectroscopes.
• Semiconductors: Used in transistors and diodes in the electronics industry.
• Solar Cells: An essential material in high-efficiency solar panels, particularly for space applications.
• Catalysts: Employed in polymerization processes and as a catalyst in the production of plastics
ANTIMONY (China accounts for 50% of global production)
• Flame Retardants: Widely used in compounds to enhance the flame resistance of plastics, textiles, and other materials.
• Batteries: Used in lead-acid batteries to improve performance and durability.
• Alloys: Added to metals like lead and tin to increase hardness and mechanical properties.
• Electronics: Used in semiconductors for diodes, infrared detectors, and thermoelectric devices.
• Pigments: Found in paints and ceramics for vibrant coloring.
QUICK BITES:
Pressure turns up on Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as new reporting drops from NBC: “Pete Hegseth's drinking worried colleagues at Fox News, sources tell NBC News.”
[RELATED] Trump is considering Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a possible replacement for Pete Hegseth
During the Biden-Harris administration, the proportion of NSF funding allocated to DEI efforts increased by over 9210% from 2021 to 2024, rising from 0.29% to 27.21%:
Delaware Chancery Court judge Kathaleen McCormick rejected Elon Musk's pay package for a second time. The new rejection comes after a second shareholder vote designed to address the judge's problems with the first vote.
[TS] I do think this is a bad ruling. Elon will shout from the high heavens that “Shareholders should control company votes, not judges.”
I guess I’d ask him: Do you still believe that even if it’s about a company sale?
Shareholders should also control company sales, not politicians. But even though Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel was approved by shareholders of both companies, Trump is going to block it:
I don’t see Elon or his defenders questioning this…[RELATED] CATO did a good article on it - few companies in American history have received more government support - tariffs, subsidies, Buy American mandates, etc. - than US Steel.
Israel soldiers stats: Fewer than 900 soldiers killed across all security forces ([TS] I think that includes 10/7) but more than 13,000 injured.
The Taliban’s new order bans women from medical education, closing the last remaining institutions where women can learn. [TS] Heartbreaking. No question Afghanistan was a cluster, but there were meaningful areas of improvement with our involvement. This was one of them.
5.) Bloomberg: Thousands of Federal Employees Land Work From Home Deal Ahead of Trump
A Biden administration appointee has agreed to lock in hybrid work protections for tens of thousands of Social Security staff, part of a slew of organized labor efforts that complicate President-elect Donald Trump's efforts to reshape the federal workforce.
[TS] I don’t know how I feel about this.
[RELATED] Biden admin implementing “safeguards” against Schedule F.
What is Schedule F?
Created by Trump’s EO 13957 to address inefficiencies in the federal workforce by categorizing certain senior, policy-influencing positions as “at-will.”
The order aimed to make it easier to dismiss poor performers and circumvent rigid civil service hiring and dismissal protections.
Opposed by the Biden Administration, which revoked it in Executive Order 14003.
AFPI did a long writeup about the proposed regulation by the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) which they claim would prevent the reinstatement of Schedule F.
[TS] This is a tough one. The debate really revolves around the balance between protecting career civil servants from political influence and ensuring their accountability to the administration in power.
6.) CEPR: Do trans-fat bans save lives?
Between 2007 and 2011, New York City and six other county health departments implemented bans on trans fat in restaurants. In the counties where bans happened, cardiovascular disease mortality fell compared to the counties that didn’t ban trans fat.
[TS] This article was written on this study: Trans fat and cardiovascular disease mortality: Evidence from bans in restaurants in New York
7.) There are over 20 trials underway for vaccines for cancer prevention.
[TS] Exciting times! Just don’t tell RFK Jr. about them…
8.) Yahoo: New York City is on the verge of allowing thousands of homeowners to build extra dwellings in their backyard, garage, or basement
New York City plans to legalize accessory dwelling units (ADUs), such as backyard homes and basement conversions, as part of Mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” initiative to boost affordable housing. The reform could add 20,000 units in 15 years, despite opposition and zoning restrictions in some neighborhoods.