Trumpdate (11.27.24):
ceasefire, RUS/UKR conflict crescendo and DEI contraction
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
War Update: Russian forces rapidly advance in Ukraine, capturing 667 sq km in November with significant territorial gains in Donetsk and Kharkiv.
Trade Tariffs: Overview of Trump's tariff impacts on imports from Mexico and Canada during his first term.
Diplomatic Breakthrough: U.S. and France broker ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending year-long conflict with significant casualties and displacement.
Political Controversy: Trump transition team investigates Boris Epshteyn for allegedly seeking payments to 'promote' potential appointees.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Corporate Policy Shift: Walmart announces significant rollback of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives.
Health Research: Study reveals alcohol's substantial link to violence and injury-related mortality during South African COVID-19 prohibition.
Tax Policy: Analysis shows 2025 TCJA extension significantly more expensive compared to 2012 Bush tax cut extension.
Energy Landscape: High-level overview of American energy production and consumption across different sources and sectors.
1.) REUTERS: Russia accelerates advance in Ukraine's east
Russian forces have advanced in Ukraine at the fastest rate since early 2022, capturing 667 sq km in November alone, with gains concentrated in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s defense remains strained, citing equipment delays and logistical challenges, while Russia employs encirclement tactics and heavy artillery. Both sides face high casualties amid intensifying battles.
Map by UnderstandingWar.org:
2.) Trump Tariffs cont.
[TS] CNN has a nice visualization that shows the scale of Trump tariffs in first term, vs on all imports (each square is $10 billion):
[TS] Mexico and Canada are some of our largest trading partners:
IMPORTS FROM MEXICO:
IMPORTS FROM CANADA:
[TS] If you’re interested in the trade data itself, you can find it HERE. If you’re interested in a more detailed breakout, including by some states, here’s a good thread on the matter by Cesar Hidalgo.
3.) CBS: President Biden announces ceasefire to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah
The U.S., with French support, brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending a year-long conflict that killed nearly 3,800 in Lebanon and displaced over 1.2 million people. Lebanese forces and UN peacekeepers will secure the border, while Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River. Talks on Gaza tensions remain unresolved.
[UPDATE]
[TS] Per Ted Cruz (R-TX) on the Biden-imposed ceasefire in Lebanon (essentially it was forced on Israel by threatening a full-scale UN Security Council arms embargo).
"Biden officials pressured Israel into accepting the ceasefire by withholding weapons they needed to defend themselves and counter Hezbollah, and by threatening to facilitate a further, broader, binding international arms embargo through the UN."
4.) NYT: Top Trump Aide Accused of Asking for Money to ‘Promote’ Potential Appointees
President-elect Donald J. Trump ordered the investigation by his legal team into Boris Epshteyn, a powerful figure in the transition. Mr. Epshteyn denies the allegations.
"According to the review, Mr. Epshteyn met with Mr. Bessent in February, at a time when it was widely known that he was interested in the Treasury post, and proposed $30,000 to $40,000 a month to 'promote' Mr. Bessent around Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s estate in Florida."
QUICK BITES:
President-elect Donald Trump is said to have selected Kevin Hassett to lead the National Economic Council, a role spearheading the new administration’s tax, trade and spending agenda, according to people familiar with the matter.
[TS] A conventional pick. Good to see.
Trump nominates Jim O’Neill to serve as the Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services (working alongside RFK Jr.).
[TS] Let’s hope this guy is really in charge. I actually think he’s level headed and has some very sound ideas (especially around regulation).
On the other hand….John Phelan, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of the Navy, appears to have absolutely zero relevant experience for the job — other than having hosted a fundraising dinner for Trump at his $38 million home in Aspen.
Trump nominates Jay Bhattacharya as his pick to be the next leader of the National Institutes of Health.
UK news:
PT1: The UK has overwhelmingly passed a bill (415 to 47) that makes it illegal for anyone currently 15 years old or younger to ever, in their lifetime, buy cigarettes. [TS] Kind of wild.
PT2: There were 1,449 persecutions & 98 convictions for internet speech in Russia 2008-2017. By contrast, there were 1,696 persecutions & 1,399 convictions for internet speech in UK in 2016 *alone* - despite having a population half that of Russia. [TS] This type of censorship is loony.
Trump's New Attorney General Pick Has Mixed Record on Guns
Pam Bondi backed "red flag" laws at the White House after Parkland. She clashed with gun-rights activists as Florida AG.
5.) Bloomberg: Walmart, World’s Biggest Retailer, Will Curb Diversity Efforts
Walmart Inc. is reversing course on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, joining a growing list of businesses retreating on DEI programs targeted by conservative activists.
The world's biggest retailer will no longer consider race and gender to boost diversity when granting supplier contracts, and stop collecting demographic data when assessing financing eligibility.
The most prominent company so far to pull back on diversity promises, Walmart on Monday confirmed it would stop using the term "DEI" in official communications. It will also curb racial equity training for staff, stop participating in notable rankings by LGBTQ advocacy group the Human Rights Campaign and review its support for Pride and other events.
[TS] Walmart is likely a bright signal to other corps. I expect a good amount to follow suit.
6.) How bad is alcohol?
[TS] Interesting paper by Kai Barron from South Africa titled:
Alcohol, violence and injury-induced mortality: Evidence from a modern-day prohibition
What did the paper look at?
The study explored the impact of a sudden nationwide alcohol sales ban in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic, examining its effects on injury-induced mortality and violent crime. Researchers used mortality and police crime data, employing a difference-in-difference analysis to assess changes in societal behaviors linked to the prohibition. Key findings indicated significant reductions in unnatural deaths, homicides, assaults, and rapes, highlighting the causal role of alcohol in violent behavior and injury-related harm.
[TS] Some interesting highlights:
Alcohol is responsible for at least 14% of all injury related mortality:
Graphs:
7.) Is a 2025 extension of the TCJA comparable to the 2012 extension of the Bush tax cuts?
[TS] In short: No. Andrew Lautz put together a great chart that shows how much more expensive it is today to borrow:
8.) High-level overview of American energy production and consumption by source and sector.
Graph by EIA:
