Trumpdate (11.25.24):
Yemeni fighters and asylum claims
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Russia's Yemen Pipeline - Russia recruiting hundreds of Yemeni fighters through Houthi-linked trafficking network, luring them with false promises of jobs and citizenship
Trump Legal Update - New York fraud case sentencing postponed indefinitely for former president
NOT NEWS NEWS
Drug Crisis Shift - CDC data shows significant decline in fentanyl overdose deaths according to recent analysis
Immigration System Reality - DOJ reports vast majority (86%) of asylum claims in US fail final approval process
Labor Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs releases data on undocumented workforce distribution across US industries
Housing Crisis Data - USA Facts provides state-by-state breakdown of homeless populations
Perception vs Reality - YouGov study reveals Americans significantly miscalculate demographic group sizes, particularly overestimating minorities
1.) Financial Times: Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine
Mysterious Houthi-linked company duping men into joining Moscow’s war machine
Russia has recruited hundreds of Yemeni men to fight in Ukraine, facilitated by a trafficking network linked to Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Many recruits were misled with promises of lucrative jobs and citizenship, only to be forcibly conscripted into the Russian military. This effort underscores deepening ties between Moscow and the Houthis, driven by Russia’s confrontation with the West, as well as its collaboration with other international militant groups. These Yemeni mercenaries, alongside recruits from other nations, highlight how the war in Ukraine is drawing in foreign fighters amid rising casualties and efforts by Russia to avoid a full domestic mobilization.
2.) Trump’s sentencing in NY is canceled indefinitely.
[TS] Fairly obvious this would happen.
QUICK BITES:
Trump selects Russ Vought, architect of Project 2025 chapter, to lead White House budget office. Vought has:
Asserted presidential authorities to unilaterally claw back spending, w/o Congress
Said "we are living in a post-Constitutional time"
Has crafted plans for Trump to deploy the military to quash civil unrest and seize more control over the Justice Department
Aggressive proponent of using "Schedule F" to strip protections from much of the federal workforce
Trump picks Scott Bessent to serve as Treasury Secretary. [TS] Definitely a qualified guy, but he literally worked for George Soros. I’m sure MAGA is going to love that.
Trump to offer Kelly Loeffler the job as the Secretary of Agriculture.
[TS] Loeffler (former CEO of crypto company Bakkt) and her husband Sprecher (current CEO of intercontinental exchange, which majority owns Bakkt) are selling Bakkt to Trump’s Truth Social and then being awarded a cabinet position?
Citadel’s CEO Kenneth Griffin: “The US does not have fiscal room to cut taxes.”
[TS] Trump admin seems keen on trying to get cute with accounting treatment of TCJA so that it can extend them without looking like it’s a huge budget hit. Or claiming they’re “permanent” to hide the $3.9T increase that would result from extending the expiring portions. A good comparison to Enron accounting practices HERE by John Arnold.
Denver Mayor Johnson would be willing to go to jail to block deportations.
3.) Fentanyl overdoses have dropped dramatically.
Graph by Kevin Drum (data by CDC):
Longer timeline:
4.) DOJ / EOIR: 86% of Asylum Claimants in the USA are not legitimate asylees
Out of 100 asylum claimants, only 14 are granted asylum, highlighting stages like interviews, reviews, and decisions by immigration judges.
[TS] This is what most people fail to realize who want a strong border. These people are technically getting in “legally” - through a lax asylum system. So, even if you complete the wall etc. they can still come and seek asylum. You need true reform via legislation and additional staff to handle/adjudicate cases. This is by no means hand waiving on policy or EOs done by the president — those can absolutely have an impact — but you need a durable solution through Congress.
SEMI-RELATED….
5.) Goldman Sachs: estimates of the US industries with the highest shares of illegal immigrant workers
6.) USA Facts: Homeless by state
7.) YouGov: Americans overestimate the size of minority groups and underestimate the size of most majority groups
[TS] I was surprised at a few of these. Only 50% with a HHI above $25k? Still skeptical of that…