Trumpdate (11.15.24):
the nominations will continue until morale improves
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Cabinet & Ethics Drama: Trump nominates vaccine skeptic RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary while Rep. Gaetz resigns amid ethics investigation, with discussion of potential recess appointments.
Military Escalation: Russia increases drone attacks on Ukraine by 44% following Trump's election.
Diplomatic Meeting: Elon Musk meets with Iran's UN Ambassador to discuss US-Iran tension reduction.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Government Savings: GAO has existing recommendations that could save federal government $208 billion.
Healthcare Study: Paragon Health Institute report shows telehealth usage spiked during pandemic but raised cost and quality concerns.
Housing Market: Austin sees 15% rent decrease after allowing more housing development.
1.) Trump’s nominations continue to baffle even his supporters.
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to the HHS secretary. The US Department of Health and Human Services has 13 divisions:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - Monitors and prevents disease outbreaks.
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) - Regulates food, drugs, and medical devices.
National Institutes of Health (NIH) - Conducts medical research.
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) - Administers Medicare and Medicaid.
Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) - Provides health care to underserved populations.
Indian Health Service (IHS) - Delivers health services to American Indians and Alaska Natives.
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) - Supports mental health and substance abuse treatment.
Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) - Improves health care quality through research.
Administration for Children and Families (ACF) - Supports programs for families and child welfare.
Administration for Community Living (ACL) - Advocates for seniors and people with disabilities.
Office of Inspector General (OIG) - Investigates fraud and abuse within HHS programs.
Office for Civil Rights (OCR) - Enforces civil rights in health care settings.
Office of Global Affairs (OGA) - Coordinates HHS’s global health efforts.
Pharma stocks took a nosedive after the nomination.
[TS] I don’t think it’s wise to nominate someone who believes vaccines cause autism, thinks chemtrails are real, or claims COVID-19 ‘targets’ certain races (like Jews) while also spouting questionable lines against ‘Big Pharma’ or ‘Big Ag.’ Also, while on the campaign trail, he said he would stop research on drug development and infectious diseases for eight years! C’mon…
There are changes and onerous regulations that could be cut by someone competent. There are some perverse incentives in the pharmaceutical industry (think patent lifecycle mgmt). But I don’t see that happening under someone like RFK Jr. Think if Trump nominated someone like Jim O’Neill, who served as Principal Associate Deputy Secretary at HHS (Nov 2007 to Oct 2008) and advocates for regulatory reform and innovation in healthcare, emphasizing the importance of accelerating the approval process for new medical treatments.
[UPDATE]
Strangely enough, Jared Polis (Colorado’s Gov (D) who only months earlier chided RFK Jr. about measles) just tweeted his support of the nomination.
[NOMINATION RELATED]
Rep. Matt Gaetz just resigned from the House to, reportedly, block a damning report from the Ethics Committee, which was investigating him for sexual misconduct. Unclear whether this move will block the committee from releasing their report. Some Republican Senators are calling for its release before the Senate’s confirmation hearings.
[TS] It would not be a far stretch for Republican Senators to endorse Gaetz given the history of unsavory endorsements they’ve already had to do in the past. Let’s recall in 2017: The Republican National Committee unendorsed a credibly accused pedophile (Roy Moore) for a Senate seat in Alabama and had to re-endorse him after Trump backed him. Remember when Mitch McConnell took back that he should step aside?
[UPDATE 2 - Gaetz]
The attorney for the teenager at the center of the Matt Gaetz allegations calls on the House Ethics Committee to release the report against Gaetz and says there are witnesses.
[UPDATE 3 - Gaetz] ABC:
The woman at the center of the DOJ's probe of Rep. Matt Gaetz testified to the House Ethics Committee that he had sex with her when she was 17 years old, sources say.
[RELATED] Trump’s Potential Plan to Appoint His Cabinet via Recess Appointments
What is a recess appointment?
A recess appointment is when the U.S. President appoints an official to a federal position temporarily while the Senate is in recess and therefore not available to confirm nominees. This allows the appointee to temporarily fill the role without Senate confirmation.
How could he do it? Per Adam Jentleson:
He could adjourn the Senate even if it did not want to adjourn. The House passes an adjournment resolution, sends it to the Senate and the Senate rejects it, thus setting up the “disagreement” that triggers POTUS adjournment authority.
[UPDATE] Senate Leader-elect Sen John Thune: "All options are on the table, including recess appointments. Hopefully it doesn't get to that."
2.) ABC: Russia increases Ukraine drone attacks by 44% since Trump election
Moscow's 145-drone attack on Nov. 10 was the largest to date.
Following Trump’s election, Russia ramped up drone strikes on Ukraine, with daily UAV deployments rising 44%. Analysts expect Russia to intensify attacks ahead of Trump’s inauguration, anticipating potential negotiations. Both Russia and Ukraine continue extensive UAV assaults to maximize strategic advantage.
3.) NYT: Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say
The tech billionaire, a top adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, was reported to have discussed ways to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.
"One Iranian Foreign Ministry official said that Ambassador Iravani told Mr. Musk during the meeting that he should obtain sanctions exemptions from the Treasury and bring some of his businesses to Tehran"
QUICK BITES:
Some other nominations from Trump:
Todd Blanche, the lead defense attorney in several of his criminal cases, will serve as Deputy Attorney General.
John Sauer, who helped Trump win near total presidential immunity from the Supreme Court, as his pick for Solicitor General.
Doug Burgum for Interior secretary, a position that will give the North Dakota governor significant influence over plans to boost domestic energy production. [TS] Hey, a normal pick!
[TS] There has been a back and forth between people who say there was an Arab switch to Trump in ’24 and those who say there was not. What does the data say?
Per StatisticUrban: In 2020 the turnout for Dearborn Michigan was 44,997. In 2024, 41,893. There was no massive decline in voter turnout. It was about ~7% lower, but the Dem vote share declined by >50%! [REALITY] A lot of people did switch to Trump in ’24.
Jack Smith has now moved to halt his Florida case against Trump, telling the 11th circuit to hold his appeal of Judge Cannon's dismissal in abeyance.
Clips resurfacing from ’22 from Russian State TV host Vladimir Solovyov who described Tulsi as their "girlfriend" and agreed that she is Putin's agent.
AXIOS: Per Stephen Neukam - Joe Manchin is open to confirming Democratic judges who get no GOP support. He previously pledged to only vote for nominees who can get at least one Republican vote.
"We're in different times right now"
Trump transition team had a meeting yesterday to discuss sexual assault allegations against Sec of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, who denies it
Of note: The alleged assault took place in 2017, which also happened to be the year Hegseth had a child with his mistress - a married mom of three - while he was still married to his 2nd wife (whom he'd cheated on his first wife with).
4.) The existing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) already has recommendations to save the federal government $208 billion.
The National Review ran a column in Sep 2024 showing that the US government could save $208 billion by implementing the recommendations the GAO has already made:
[RELATED] The federal budget is a two sided coin.
[TS] Yes, we should look at spending, but I think it is also important (maybe equally!) that we should look at the revenue side. A balanced approach can help us avoid harmful cuts while also increasing funds from fair, well-structured revenue sources, like updating outdated tax policies.
I’m still rooting for Elon’s “DOGE,” but I imagine almost no spotlight will be on revenue. He’ll have fun poking fun at silly spending examples that are either misrepresented, a drop in the bucket, truly ridiculous, or some combination of the three — but will they actually move the needle or make tough choices regarding the budget deficit? Time will tell…
[UPDATE]
[TS] lol. Not looking good already. Elon released this snap saying “Here’s what the U.S. Government wasted $900 Billion of your tax dollars on in 2023. The Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) will fix this…”
A fitting snapshot of the project’s lack of seriousness to include $659B in federal interest payments as one line item and $8k for a lobster tank as another line item and label both of them waste.
Again - still rooting! Still optimistic. But now I’m thinking it’s going to amount to a report nobody will read (and some harassment to random scientists at NIH). I expect to see a deluge of right-wing personalities sharing deliberately ill-described studies.
[UPDATE] [TS] Found one already - unfortunately from a Senator. Rand Paul:
[TS] Sounds ridiculous! Did he link the study? Of course not. Is this a fair representation of the study? You already know the answer. This was an animal study on the effect of anabolic steroids on aggression. Is it a waste of money? Maybe! But we should demand some intellectual honesty, especially from our Senators.
5.) Paragon Health Institute releases paper evaluating Telehealth
PURPOSE
Examine the cost, quality, and access impacts of telehealth, especially as Congress debates extending pandemic-era flexibilities.
Focus: Review telehealth’s usage and effects pre-, during, and post-pandemic to inform policy.
FINDINGS
Pandemic Surge: Telehealth use spiked early in the pandemic, partially replacing in-person visits but declined as in-person care rebounded.
• Mental Health Dominance: Telehealth remains highest in mental/behavioral health, with claims doubling from 2019-2023.
• Urban Use: Contrary to expectations, telehealth was more utilized in urban areas than rural, with limited cross-state usage.
• Cost Questions: Telehealth likely increased overall healthcare costs by supplementing, not replacing, in-person visits.
• Quality Concerns: Generally effective for follow-ups but raised issues like antibiotic overprescription and reduced physical exam capabilities.
• Fraud Risks: Telehealth saw increased fraud during the pandemic, but rates are comparable to in-person care.
POLICY SUGGESTIONS
Research: Extend flexibilities temporarily while studying telehealth’s cost-effectiveness and quality.
• Mental Health: Focus on refining mental health telehealth policies to address potential overutilization.
• Guardrails: Implement controls to prevent fraud and waste before making broader telehealth flexibilities permanent.
• Private Sector Insights: Leverage Medicare Advantage and private insurer data to guide policy.
6.) What happens if you let developers build housing?
[TS] A bit of a hobby horse of mine, as I’ve covered it multiple times in the past. Regardless, always good to look at the data! Here is Austin, TX - where rent has dropped 15% from its peak (per Nick Gerli)
