Mom Arrested: Brittany Patterson jailed after allowing her son to walk alone, highlighting fears over child safety.
Gambling Concerns: Mobile gambling’s rise fuels studies on its societal impact, as gaming borrows gambling’s addictive features.
Government Research Spending: Examples of unusual research funding, like Gila monster venom, emphasize innovation’s unexpected benefits.
Massachusetts Shelter Costs: State commission suggests reducing shelter costs; critics want clearer plans for non-resident shelter use.
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1.) CPI Inflation rose to 2.6% year-on-year, increasing 0.2% month-on-month
Core CPI inflation held steady at 3.3% year-on-year, growing 0.3% month-on-month. Graph by Joey Politano:
[RELATED] Grocery prices are down 0.1%
This is the first decline since the pandemic began:
[RELATED 2] Argentina’s President, Javier Milei celebrates inflation in Argentina falling to 2.7% - a three year low:
2.) NYT: Russia Launches Missiles Against Ukraine’s Capital
The attack ended a two-month pause in missile strikes on Kyiv, which had only been hit by Russian drones during that period.
[TS] This is a significant escalation as winter approaches and America’s support comes into question.
3.) Trump’s nominations are getting crazier.
Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence
[TS] This was readout by Roger Stone, of all people…
Gabbard condemned the Soleimani killing as an "unconstitutional" act of war by then President Trump.
Met with Bashar al-Assad on a “fact-finding mission” and expressed skepticism about claims that Assad used chemical weapons against Syrian civilians, suggesting that some attacks may have been staged by opposition forces to draw the U.S. deeper into the conflict.
Gabbard argued Russia was justified in invading Ukraine because Ukraine wanted to join NATO to protect itself from a Russian invasion.
[TS] Honestly, if anyone predicted Gabbard, Gaetz and and Hegseth for any of these positions months ago, they would have been written them off as suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. And yet…
Luckily, I have a hard time believing they’ll get through the Senate. These strike me as loyalty tests more than anything. The absurdity is the point.
Trump has shown he understands a cardinal rule of strong man dominance: constantly force your allies to defend the indefensible & to make ever greater concessions they once would have considered beyond the pale. Each surrender paves the way for the next. Gaetz just an opening bid
[UPDATE] Ed Whelan: “Hope it's wrong, but I'm hearing through the grapevine about this bonkers plan: Trump would adjourn both Houses of Congress under Article II, section 3, and then recess-appoint his Cabinet.”
[UPDATE 2] Senators are being asked Gaetz’ nomination (on camera).
TAPPER: Are you gonna vote for Matt Gaetz?
SEN. MARKWAYNE MULLIN: I completely trust President Trump's decision making on this one
[TS] Worth noting: Mullin has previously accused Gaetz of sleeping with an underaged girl, showing off videos of girls he slept with on the House floor, and bragging about taking ED meds to "go all night.” I think this gives us a taste for how easily Senate R’s will fold to even a ridiculous nomination like Gaetz.
Example #2: Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) says “He's been on the receiving end of the DOJ's weaponization" -- Sen. Hagerty indicates he will support Matt Gaetz as AG.
Example #3: Sen. Graham (R-SC): “He won the election, he deserves a chance to pick his cabinet. I am predisposed to allow him to do that. I think Matt Gaetz is very bright. I think he's qualified.”
Sen. Susan Collins “was shocked that he has been nominated.” [TS] I’m sure. How does that register on the Collins scale:
QUICK BITES:
Trump declines to nominate a new House Speaker and endorses Mike Johnson, who will likely go unopposed.
Senate Leadership vote (over McConnell): On the second ballot - John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) advance. Rick Scott (R-FL) was lowest vote getter. Vote tally was 23-15-13 (Thune Cornyn Scott). Of note: Sen Thune specifically called for cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid - despite Trump's campaign pledges to the contrary. [TS] This is surprising given the MAGA rush to promote Scott. Ultimately, it’s Trump’s call. If he wants to put his finger on the scale, his candidate will win.
This will also be true in FL. DeSantis can nominate a new senator in FL given Rubio’s new role. MAGA is saying “Make it Lara Trump.” Trump could weigh in here, but I imagine he won’t. His lack of action will allow DeSantis to appoint someone he deems fit (vs just a “Trump” name).
Of note: In 2012 Mitt Romney criticized Obama for wasting money on loans to "loser" companies like Solyndra and Tesla. [TS] If the government isn't making mistakes it's not taking enough risks.
[RELATED - ELON] Elon Musk is expected to join Trump at the House Republican conference meeting this morning. [TS] Seems odd, no?
[UPDATE] Per Lauren Windsor: “A senator told me that the rumor on the Hill is that Elon Musk is threatening to fund a primary challenge to any House Republican who doesn’t fall in line with Trump’s agenda.”
[TS] Some perspective, per Joe Walsh: Imagine this scenario: What if during the 2020 campaign, Mark Zuckerberg had come out and publicly endorsed Biden, used his social media platforms to push pro-Biden information and spread disinformation about Trump, then spent millions of his own money on pro-Biden PACS, and then campaigned his butt off for Biden. And then when Biden won, Zuckerberg became Biden’s closest advisor, basically setting up camp at the White House. How would right-wing media react?
Nate Silver’s estimate on the popular vote drops Trump to 49.8%. That means George W. Bush retains his title as the only Republican to win a majority of the vote in a 21st century presidential election. [TS] Not a ringing endorsement of the Electoral College…
Trump “jokes” about running again in 2028: “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say he’s so good we've got to figure something else out.”
Per Julia Ioffe: “I suspect it won’t take long for conservative legal scholars invent some kind of legal theory to say that the Constitution doesn’t prohibit a third Trump term because the first two weren’t consecutive. And I suspect it won’t take long for SCOTUS to agree.”
Trump stands to benefit from a dramatic drop in oil prices next year—something he’ll have absolutely no control over. [TS] I’m sure he won’t take the credit though…
CNN: FBI arrests alleged leaker of US intelligence documents related to Israel’s attack plans against Iran.
The Justice Department charged ex-CIA officer Asif W. Rahman with leaking top-secret US intelligence about Israel’s potential retaliation against Iran. Arrested in Cambodia, he faces trial in Virginia. The documents, shared on Telegram, revealed sensitive info about Israel’s munitions and hinted at its nuclear capabilities.
Iranintl: Iran sentences six more protesters to death after controversial trial.
Iran sentenced six individuals to death over a Basij member’s killing in the 2022 protests. The case, lacking clear evidence, has raised human rights concerns as reports of torture and unfair trials emerge.
The Biden administration is laying out plans to triple America’s nuclear capacity by 2050, adding an additional 200 gigawatts. [TS] I welcome it, but that’s too slow.
[TS] I’ll let their tables speak for themselves, but this data is quite grim:
There are more, but I think you get the idea. I think stats like these probably sway the public sentiment — and Trump’s desires — to abolish the Dept. of Education. Most people will see something like this and ask themselves: “If these are the results, why would we keep them?” It’s not a bad question. Dana Goldstein in the NYT’s has a good article on the Dept of Education.
That said, when Trump says “our education is terrible,” or “The US is absolutely the bottom” in student performance, he’s wrong. If you look worldwide, the US isn’t close to the bottom (Asian-American and white American K-12 students both rank in the top 10 in PISA performance worldwide).
5.) [TS] As Predicted, Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared since Election Day.
[TS] Democrats also exhibit the same swings as shown in 2021. This is not a healthy way to view the performance of the economy. But, it does give us insight into Trumps messaging for 2025 — and he’ll have a LOT of good things to say about the economy (Biden’s economy): Low unemployment, inflation tackled etc.
6.) REASON: Mom Jailed for Letting 10-Year-Old Walk Alone to Town
On October 30, 2024, Brittany Patterson was arrested in front of her children after her 11-year-old son, Soren, walked alone to a nearby town. A concerned woman reported him, leading police to pick him up and later arrest Patterson. Authorities demanded a “safety plan” for supervision, which she refused to sign, citing her preference for a “Free-Range” parenting approach.
[TS] This story is insane and a troubling reflection of our society. We’ve become irrationally fearful, despite clear data showing we’re safer now than ever before. This is the result of 30+ years of news sensationalizing crime and stoking fears of child abductions.
Luckily, I haven’t seen any serious person defending the actions of the town against Patterson.
7.) Gambling still isn’t great for society.
[TS] The explosion of mobile gambling is offering new studies on the harms of pervasive gambling. I’ve covered this in previous Trumpdates (#10 The Financial Consequences of Legalized Sports Gambling) - but new data out of Brazil shows this isn’t isolated in the US.
Per Bloomberg: Gamblers Pay 400% Loan Rates to Fund Betting Frenzy in Brazil
20% of a recent social assistance program have been spent on gambling, with some bettors taking out credit at rates exceeding 400%
[TS] Video games, especially mobile ones, have borrowed heavily from gambling by adding gamified elements.
It’ll be interesting to see which side of the isle politicians land on here. I’m guessing D’s will have a clear majority against (and will want further regulation), while I can see R’s having a divide. There’s the old conservatives who want to “restore virtue” and the new conservatives (think Barstool conservatives) who enjoy it.
8.) [TS] There are some examples floating around about government waste…
A popular thread is circulating with a number of crazy sounding things the government spent money on. For example:
In 2020, the U.S. government spent $4.5 million to spray alcoholic rats with bobcat urine.
In 2019, the U.S. government spent half a million dollars to see if quails were more sexually active on cocaine.
etc.
On the surface, these sound rather insane (and some on the list might be insane). But, the author takes no time to investigate further to see why they were funded, or what they were hoping to research.
Let’s take the first example: Alcoholic rats and bobcat piss? What?!?! How could this not be ridiculous and wasteful? But this was actually a real study! Of course, it wasn’t titled “alcoholic rats and bobcat piss” (even though that would be a pretty rad name). It was called:
So, what were they trying to study, and why? Is this just wasteful government spending and woke scientists gone amuck? Actually, if you read the paper, the researchers were developing and validating a neurobiological model of PTSD, which could be used both to screen for risk and to develop pharmacological treatments for the condition.
Research at NIH is not a significant driver of government spending, but medical care is. Military patients diagnosed with PTSD cost an average of $25,684 each year to treat, and the disorder imposes an estimated economic burden of $232 billion.
There are few FDA-approved drugs for the treatment of PTSD. If we could develop more, it'd boost economic growth while driving down government spending on health care. But we need a validated animal-model to facilitate that.
There really is wasteful spending in government. Perhaps this research qualifies. But it's also possible that this was $4.5 million well spent, which will ultimately help contain costs—the sort of thing that a commission trying to slash government spending might applaud.
Here’s the other thing I want to draw attention to: The government, in my opinion, should be the ones funding a wide range of seemingly random research. Private industry may not invest in research without clear, immediate profits. This broad spectrum of funding often pays off because innovation often arises from unexpected findings.
Take, for example, the primary tool in molecular biology: polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This technique became broadly accessible thanks to the discovery of a heat-resistant polymerase in Yellowstone’s hot springs.
How about studying Gila monster venom? That couldn’t possibly pay dividends, could it? Or, it could lead to two researchers (Drs. John Eng and Jean Pierre Raufman) discovering a hormone called exendin-4 in the venom. This hormone paved the way for GLP-1 receptor agonists, a groundbreaking class of diabetes drugs (probably the most important new class of drugs of our generation).
9.) Boston Herald:State report suggests Mass. cut shelter system costs but some are left wanting more specifics
A Massachusetts commission on emergency shelters proposed cost-cutting reforms to address a $1 billion budget, including reducing hotel reliance. The draft report urges the Healey administration to focus on efficiency and make family homelessness rare and brief. Critics argue it lacks specifics on controlling shelter use by out-of-state residents. The report attributes rising demand to federal immigration policy, a housing shortage, and post-COVID changes, while others call for ongoing oversight.
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