Trumpdate (11.13.24):
let the madness begin...
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
NEWS NEWS
Trump Transition Team Appointments - Trump names key positions including Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff), Mike Waltz (National Security), Lee Zeldin (EPA), Stephen Miller (Deputy Chief), and several other high-profile appointments to potential future administration.
Military Leadership Review Plan - Trump team drafts executive order to create "warrior board" that would evaluate and potentially remove three- and four-star military officers.
NOT NEWS NEWS
Election Analysis Breakdown - Final vote tally shows narrow Trump victory (49.9% vs 48.5%), with increased support among minority voters but decreased white voter support, challenging claims of a "landslide" victory.
1.) Trump begins appointing staff for his future admin.
Knowns:
CHEIF OF STAFF: Susie Wiles
A seasoned political consultant, Wiles has been a pivotal figure in Trump’s campaigns, notably managing his 2016 and 2024 presidential bids. She has not previously held a formal position in the Trump administration.
WH NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Rep Mike Waltz (R-FL)
A former Green Beret and current U.S. Representative, Waltz has been a vocal supporter of Trump’s foreign policy but has not served in his prior administration.
EPA ADMINISTRATOR: Lee Zeldin
A former U.S. Representative from New York, Zeldin has been an ally of Trump but did not hold a position in his previous administration.
WH DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR POLICY: Stephen Miller
Miller served as a senior policy adviser in Trump’s first term, known for his hardline stance on immigration.
BORDER CZAR: Tom Homan
Former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under Trump, Homan is set to oversee border security initiatives
UN AMBASSADOR: Rep Elise Stefanik (R-NY)
Stefanik has been a staunch supporter of Trump but has not previously served in his administration.
SECRETARY OF STATE: Sen Marco Rubio (R-FL)
[TS] Does this mean DeSantis runs? He can’t run for Gov again (his term concludes Jan 2027)
DHS SECRETARY: Gov Kristi Noem (R-SD)
[TS] I guess those weird commercials she did for that TX dental practice worked.
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Pete Hegseth
[TS] Ok, this one is…strange. This guys is/was a Fox News TV host and an Army National Guard officer. He really has no business being in this role.
He also spoke on air at Fox which influenced Trump’s intervention of Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher (who’s own platoon members testified against him, called him “evil” and expressed concerns about his conduct).
AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL: Mike Huckabee (former Arkansas Gov)
Per Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: “Huckabee is a huge victory for the settlers and their plan to annex the West Bank. He once laid a ceremonial brick for a house in Efrat and said he hopes to buy a “holiday home” there one day. Then said, “Build Israel Great Again.”’
[UPDATE] [TS] Someone dug up a 2017 video presser from Huckabee in Israel: "There is no such thing as the West Bank - it's Judea and Samaria. There is no such thing as settlements - they're communities, they're neighborhoods, they're cities. There is no such thing as an occupation."
[UPDATE 2] CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski during Huckabee’s 2015 run for president, Huckabee suggested that if a Palestinian state were to be created, it should be in neighboring countries like Egypt, Syria, or Jordan, rather than within Israel’s borders.
“Basically, there really is no such thing as — I need to be careful about saying this, because people will really get upset — there's really no such thing as a Palestinian," Huckabee said at a 2008 campaign stop in Massachusetts while speaking to two Orthodox Jewish men. "There's not."
CIA DIRECTOR: John Ratcliffe
Former House Rep (R-TX) 2015-2020, was appointed to serve as Director of National Intelligence by Trump in May 2020 (until Biden took over in Jan ’21).
[TS] He pledged to stay apolitical, but obviously did not.
[TS] Thank god it’s not Kash Patel. That being said, here is the accompanying statement from Trump on this appointment:
[TS] Very first thing was praising him for going after his political opponents. Essentially signaling what he’s looking for.
WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: William McGinely
He served as General Counsel to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and was counsel to the Convention Rules Committee during the 2012 Republican National Convention. From January 2017 to July 2019, McGinley served as the White House Cabinet Secretary under President Donald Trump.
[TS] Some thoughts: Trump seems to be selecting quite a few house members. Rs are currently on pace to win 220-221 House seats, which only gives them a slim majority.
House R’s are already talking to Trump’s transition team to ease up, per CNN. If he continues plucking existing members, this could compromise their majority (unlucky given the safety of the districts). So, why do it?
Here’s one argument for Trump shrinking the GOP’s already slim House majority:
Limits Mike Johnson’s power
Reduces pressure on Trump’s administration to pass significant legislation, shifting focus to executive orders
Solidifies Trump’s role as the uncontested leader of his party
2.) WSJ: Trump Draft Executive Order Would Create Board to Purge Generals
The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership.
[TS] Needless to say, this is not good. Such a panel could upend the traditional military review process and raises concerns about politicization of the military.
QUICK BITES:
Trump says “the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (‘DOGE’).”
[TS] Trump, Elon et al. love to point to government waste/spending. But most of the spending is tied up in entitlements ($1.15T Social Security, $0.85T Medicare, $0.63T Medicaid), Defense ($0.83T), Interest on Debt ($0.66T). If you think you can come in and cut “Two trillion” without touching these programs — I don’t believe you. For reference from USA Facts (a great site):
[TS] Also note: This “Department” isn’t actually sanctioned by Congress. It’s an outside entity. Who is funding it? What are the conflicts of interest? What’s the transparency? This has bad news written all over it.
Just as an FYI: I actually am rooting for real waste to be found and for real efficiencies to be gained. I just don’t know if this is the right vehicle for that job. I’ve continued to highlight what a major debt problem we have (and will only get worse with time). We need to address it now, which might include unpopular choices. Will Trump make those unpopular choices? Doubtful. My prediction will be: He will kick the can down the road so he doesn’t have to take any criticism for making hard decisions — which will just make the decisions/cuts even MORE difficult in the future, which will incentivize a future leader NOT to do them because they will be, almost by definition, unpopular. It’s not going to be easy… I fear it will only get done when it’s an emergency.
I think they should have centered their goals around two things:
ONE: Defense Spending / Contracting
TWO: Healthcare
I think there are real gains to be made in both those areas that could save time and money. Marc Goldwein has written about aggressive cutting within healthcare. He said you could get to $2T (over 10 years), by doing the following:
1. Prevent Medicare Advantage “upcoding.”
2. Equalize payments to hospitals and doctor’s offices for similar services.
3. Prevent states and hospitals from colluding to inflate their federal Medicaid match.
4. End Medicare Advantage quality bonuses that are awarded to all plans, regardless of quality.
5. Reduce excess reimbursements for post-acute care in Medicare.
6. Restrict Medigap wrap-around plans that charge seniors high premiums and encourage unnecessary care.
7. End reimbursements for bad debts.
8. Build on recent drug pricing reforms.
9. Adjust LIS copays by reducing them for generic drugs and increasing them for name-brand drugs.
10. Fund cost-sharing reductions directly, instead of through “silver loading.”
[TS] Also, why appoint two people to lead? “Look, it doesn’t take a genius to know that every organization thrives when it has two leaders. Go ahead, name a country that doesn’t have two presidents. A boat that sets sail without two captains. Where would Catholicism be without the popes?”
3.) [TS] Trump’s win was not a “landslide” or a “mandate.”
[TS] There is no question that Trump won, and no question that it was decisive. But the language around the win like “landslide” and “a mandate” are simply not warranted. Per Nate Silver, Trump’s popular vote total likely to come in around
77.9m votes (49.9%)
Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
other 2.6m votes (1.6%).
Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020).
A 1.5% vote differential is not a landslide. Hillary won the popular vote by about as much in 2016. Biden won 2020 by over 4%.
Granted, I do find it surprising that Trump beat Harris in the popular vote at all. Clearly, there’s some soul-searching the Democrats need to do. There’s no question that a few rotten planks exist within the party. For one, Democrats need to completely abandon identity politics. Enough with ‘Latinx’ and other forms of language policing that don’t resonate with voters. If you think this is a winning issue, consider this:
Trump gained ground with every group except for whites:
This is not how to build a broad tent.