EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Political Turmoil: South Korean President Yoon declares and quickly rescinds martial law amid parliamentary rejection.

2. Syrian Conflict: Turkey-backed militias target Kurds as Syrian regime faces challenges and potential Russian withdrawal.

3. Labor Market: Job openings per unemployed worker at 1.1 in October, showing a loosening trend.

4. Trade Tensions: China bans exports of critical materials (gallium, germanium, antimony) to the US in response to chip sanctions.

NOT NEWS NEWS

5. Federal Workforce: Biden administration secures work-from-home protections for federal employees before potential Trump administration.

6. Health Policy: Study shows trans-fat bans in restaurants correlate with reduced cardiovascular disease mortality.

7. Medical Research: Over 20 vaccine trials underway for cancer prevention.

8. Urban Housing: New York City plans to legalize accessory dwelling units to increase affordable housing.

1.) South Korean President Yoon Declares Martial Law

Scuffles at South Korea's parliament as special forces take control under martial law

[TS] That lady is bad ass.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced that he was imposing martial law, accusing the opposition of paralyzing the government with "anti-state activities".

It caused a tense night of political drama in which troops surrounded parliament.

Amid widespread protests, military deployments, and parliamentary rejection, Yoon rescinded the order hours later. The move has spurred domestic and international criticism, with calls for his impeachment.

[TS] The military immediately stopped trying to arrest the entire parliament after they voted martial law down.

In South Korea the president’s party gave him zero votes for his coup. The parliament voted 190-0.

By comparison: 139 Republican Congressmen and 8 Senators voted to certify Trump’s attempted coup.

[RELATED] Even before this, his approval was <20%

2.) JERUSALEM POST: Turkey-backed militias target Kurds amid Syrian regime’s collapse – analysis

Renewed violence displaces Kurds as HTS and Turkey-backed militias advance.

HTS has assured Kurds in its territories they can stay but has asked the SDF to leave. Exploiting HTS advances, Turkey-backed SNA attacked Kurds in Tal Rifaat, displacing thousands. Meanwhile, HTS gains near Hama challenge Assad’s forces, while Iran and the West call for de-escalation.

[SEMI- RELATED] First Signs Russia Is Evacuating Navy Ships From Syria

The Russian Navy's base at Tartus in Syria is crucial to its support of the Assad regime, and its ambitions on the world stage. The dramatic shift in the front lines in Syria now puts the base at risk. There are indications that Russia may be evacuating its naval vessels.

Rebel Progress UPDATE

The worst scenario for Assad and his allies seems to be building up fast - new fronts opening closer to regime & Iranian core interests, near the borders with Iraq and Lebanon and close to the capital. This is where Iran would deploy if so, not northward

Meanwhile, after relatively slow advances in the north, the rebels have been made new gains near Hama. It was thought the advances halted but apparently not yet .

3.) Job Openings per Unemployed Worker for Oct was 1.1

• A bit looser than pre-COVID

• Much looser than 2022

• Stable since summer

4.) AP: China bans exports to US of gallium, germanium, antimony in response to chip sanctions

Beijing says the commodities have "dual-use" military use. The Chinese guidance is a bit unclear, saying the "in principle" ban only applies for sales to "military users."

Use cases for each:

GALLIUM (China accounts for 80% of the world’s production)

• Semiconductors: Used in gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN) for LEDs, solar panels, and high-speed electronic devices.

• Thermometers: Replaces mercury in high-temperature thermometers due to its low melting point (near room temperature).

• Medical Applications: Utilized in diagnostic imaging agents and cancer treatment.

• Alloys: Added to metals to reduce their melting points.

• Mirror Coatings: Used for producing highly reflective mirrors.

GERMANIUM (China accounts for 60% of the world’s supply)

• Fiber Optics: A key component in fiber optic systems for telecommunications due to its transparency to infrared light.

• Infrared Optics: Used in thermal imaging devices and infrared spectroscopes.

• Semiconductors: Used in transistors and diodes in the electronics industry.

• Solar Cells: An essential material in high-efficiency solar panels, particularly for space applications.

• Catalysts: Employed in polymerization processes and as a catalyst in the production of plastics

ANTIMONY (China accounts for 50% of global production)

• Flame Retardants: Widely used in compounds to enhance the flame resistance of plastics, textiles, and other materials.

• Batteries: Used in lead-acid batteries to improve performance and durability.

• Alloys: Added to metals like lead and tin to increase hardness and mechanical properties.

• Electronics: Used in semiconductors for diodes, infrared detectors, and thermoelectric devices.

• Pigments: Found in paints and ceramics for vibrant coloring.

QUICK BITES:

1. Pressure turns up on Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth as new reporting drops from NBC: “Pete Hegseth's drinking worried colleagues at Fox News, sources tell NBC News.”

   1. [RELATED] Trump is considering Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as a possible replacement for Pete Hegseth

2. During the Biden-Harris administration, the proportion of NSF funding allocated to DEI efforts increased by over 9210% from 2021 to 2024, rising from 0.29% to 27.21%:

3. Delaware Chancery Court judge Kathaleen McCormick rejected Elon Musk's pay package for a second time. The new rejection comes after a second shareholder vote designed to address the judge's problems with the first vote.

   1. [TS] I do think this is a bad ruling. Elon will shout from the high heavens that “Shareholders should control company votes, not judges.”

   2. I guess I’d ask him: Do you still believe that even if it’s about a company sale?

      1. Shareholders should also control company sales, not politicians. But even though Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel was approved by shareholders of both companies, Trump is going to block it:

         

         I don’t see Elon or his defenders questioning this…[RELATED] CATO did a good article on it - few companies in American history have received more government support - tariffs, subsidies, Buy American mandates, etc. - than US Steel.

4. Israel soldiers stats: Fewer than 900 soldiers killed across all security forces ([TS] I think that includes 10/7) but more than 13,000 injured.

5. The Taliban’s new order bans women from medical education, closing the last remaining institutions where women can learn. [TS] Heartbreaking. No question Afghanistan was a cluster, but there were meaningful areas of improvement with our involvement. This was one of them.

5.) Bloomberg: Thousands of Federal Employees Land Work From Home Deal Ahead of Trump

A Biden administration appointee has agreed to lock in hybrid work protections for tens of thousands of Social Security staff, part of a slew of organized labor efforts that complicate President-elect Donald Trump's efforts to reshape the federal workforce.

[TS] I don’t know how I feel about this.

[RELATED] Biden admin implementing “safeguards” against Schedule F.

What is Schedule F?

• Created by Trump’s EO 13957 to address inefficiencies in the federal workforce by categorizing certain senior, policy-influencing positions as “at-will.”

• The order aimed to make it easier to dismiss poor performers and circumvent rigid civil service hiring and dismissal protections.

• Opposed by the Biden Administration, which revoked it in Executive Order 14003.

AFPI did a long writeup about the proposed regulation by the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) which they claim would prevent the reinstatement of Schedule F.

[TS] This is a tough one. The debate really revolves around the balance between protecting career civil servants from political influence and ensuring their accountability to the administration in power.

6.) CEPR: Do trans-fat bans save lives?

Between 2007 and 2011, New York City and six other county health departments implemented bans on trans fat in restaurants. In the counties where bans happened, cardiovascular disease mortality fell compared to the counties that didn’t ban trans fat.

[TS] This article was written on this study: Trans fat and cardiovascular disease mortality: Evidence from bans in restaurants in New York

7.) There are over 20 trials underway for vaccines for cancer prevention.

[TS] Exciting times! Just don’t tell RFK Jr. about them…

8.) Yahoo: New York City is on the verge of allowing thousands of homeowners to build extra dwellings in their backyard, garage, or basement

New York City plans to legalize accessory dwelling units (ADUs), such as backyard homes and basement conversions, as part of Mayor Eric Adams’ “City of Yes” initiative to boost affordable housing. The reform could add 20,000 units in 15 years, despite opposition and zoning restrictions in some neighborhoods.​

[SEMI-RELATED] A candidate for NYC Mayor (Zellnor) has proposed a “mandate for 1M homes to be built in NYC.”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Political Showdown: North Carolina Senate overrides governor's veto, setting stage for potential lawsuit.

NOT NEWS NEWS

2. Financial Myth Debunked: Contrary to popular belief, most Americans can cover a $400 emergency expense with cash.

3. COVID Investigation: House committee concludes report suggesting lab leak origin and criticizing pandemic response policies.

4. Manufacturing Resurgence: US manufacturing sector adds 113,000 jobs from 2019 to 2023, linked to recent legislative policies.

5. Infrastructure Speed: Rapid post-disaster infrastructure repair demonstrates potential for quick national building processes.

6. Housing Comparison: Comparative graph suggests Americans fare well in housing compared to other countries.

7. Business Landscape: Stark difference in young, large publicly traded companies between US and EU.

8. War Expenditure: Russia dramatically increases military budget, allocating over $145 billion for 2025 defense spending.

1.) North Carolina Politics: The State Senate has overridden Gov Cooper's (D) veto of SB382 by party-line vote of 30-19. Bill goes next to House for final approval. A lawsuit expected to follow

[TS] This is quite the power grab from North Carolina Republicans:

QUICK BITES:

1. [TS] As predicted, Trump uses Biden’s Hunter pardon as further justification to pardon Jan 6th criminals:

   1. 

      [TS] Again, he would have done this regardless of Biden’s actions, but what a gift!

2. CNN: Trump's incoming White House press secretary purged tweets praising Mike Pence for certifying the election results and praising Capitol police. Just a year later she ran for Congress denying the 2020 election results.

2.) No it’s not true that 60% of people don’t have $400 in emergency spending.

[TS] A widely believed statement of fact that is, in fact, false. Similar to the false statement: “Most Americans are living ‘paycheck to paycheck.’”— which I’ve covered before (#4).

I’ve listed the data from the Chase Institute before, but this time the data comes right from the Federal Reserve. In short:

• 60% of people would finance an emergency expense with cash, not 60% can’t. From the text itself:

Sixty-three percent of adults said they would cover a hypothetical $400 emergency expense exclusively using cash or its equivalent, unchanged from 2022 but down from a high of 68 percent in 2021.

3.) The House COVID Select Concludes 2-Year Investigation, Issues 500+ Page Final Report on Lessons Learned and the Path Forward

Full report HERE. Summary HERE.

[TS] Honestly, a lot of it reads like a partisan hack job. This should have been written by sober, serious people (the topic certainly deserved it). Regardless, a few takeaways (I suppose take ‘em with a grain of salt):

COVID-19 most likely emerged from a laboratory in Wuhan, China

• Wuhan is home to China’s foremost SARS research lab, which has a history of conducting gain-of-function research at inadequate biosafety levels.

Most guidelines/recommendations were bad or not based in science:

• Social distancing was arbitrary

• Masks did not work effectively to contain spread

• Lockdowns, especially prolonged lockdowns on schools had lasting harm

• Policies ignored natural immunity, pushing mandates that eroded trust and harmed public perception of science.

Incredible amounts of fraud within COVID relief programs

• PAYCHECK PROTECTION PROGRAM: The Paycheck Protection Program — which offered essential relief to Americans in the form of loans that could be forgiven if the funds were used to offset pandemic-era hardships — was rife with fraudulent claims resulting in at least $64 billion of taxpayers’ dollars lost to fraudsters and criminals.

• FRADULENT UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS: Fraudsters cost the American taxpayer more than $191 billion dollars by taking advantage of the federal government’s unemployment system and exploiting individuals’ personally identifiable information.

• SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (SBA) FAILURES: $200 million of taxpayers’ dollars were lost as a result of the SBA’s inability to conduct proper oversight, implement internal controls, and ensure fraud protection measures were enacted.

4.) Manufacturing jobs are growing in the US again

From 2019 to 2023, the manufacturing sector added 113,000 jobs.

[TS] This is directly related to Biden’s policies. Trump will, of course, take credit - but let’s hope he doesn’t suspend or end the policies. Take, for example, the CHIPS act and IRA — look at what they’re doing for US manufacturing and construction spending (graph per Joey Politano):

[TS] This type of spending curve is astonishing. Expect to see Trump's name on every IIJA, CHIPS, and IRA ribbon cut. Biden could have done it but key Dem factions thought NEPA red tape was more important than permitting reform to finish projects in <4 yrs.

Speaking of permitting and regulations…

5.) America can still build fast!

….but only after disasters.

[TS] Good article in The New Atlantis by Aiden Mackenzie about building/permitting reform. An excerpt:

In June 2023, a bridge on I-95 in Northeast Philadelphia collapsed after a tanker truck caught fire in an underpass, halting traffic along the entire corridor. But, astonishingly, the highway was reopened to traffic only twelve days later, months ahead of most predictions. The success is a showcase for a process stripped down to the basics. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro used his disaster authority, suspending any law or regulation that would impede swift recovery. Construction crews, working around the clock, engineered and built a temporary road in less than a week.

[TS] Examples in the opposite direction are endless. Take the California high speed rail project, per LA Times:

• $100 billion over budget

• Told voters it would be finished by 2020

• Now they won’t even set a date for completion

[TS] It’s not just big projects like this, but even small ones. Look at a bike lane in Seattle. 17 years (and counting!) to study building a bike lane:

6.) US Housing vs other Countries

[TS] Based on this, Americans have it pretty good…

I do wonder if rural areas bring the average down in the US.

Speaking of US vs…

7.) US vs EU: Young Market Leaders

The bubbles on the left are US publicly traded companies that are less than 50 years old with a market capitalization of $10B+. The bubbles on the right are the same but for the EU. Graph per Andrew McAfee:

[TS] What a difference.

8.) Russia is spending record amounts on the Ukraine war.

From the AP:

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved budget plans, raising 2025 military spending to record levels as Moscow seeks to prevail in the war in Ukraine. Around 32.5% of the budget posted on a government website Sunday has been allocated for national defense, amounting to over $145 billion.

Graph per Kevin Drum:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Syrian Rebellion: Rebels launch major offensive, capturing Aleppo Airport and advancing toward Hama.

2. Inflation Watch: October CPI remains high at 2.9%, indicating persistent underlying economic pressures.

3. Presidential Pardon: Biden pardons son Hunter, sparking controversy over political implications.

4. FBI Nomination Controversy: Trump plans to nominate Kash Patel as FBI director, drawing bipartisan criticism.

NOT NEWS NEWS

5. Ukraine Aid Insight: Most U.S. aid to Ukraine actually stays within the United States.

6. Free Speech Concerns: Denmark and UK consider blasphemy laws restricting religious text criticism.

7. Housing Market Evolution: Median house prices show significant changes between 2000 and 2024.

1.) Syria Rebels Take Aleppo Airport and Attack Hama

The breach of Aleppo is a dramatic shift in the 13-year Syrian civil war and the rebels' largest offensive since 2020.

The conflict in Syria has reignited amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East following the October 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel. Rebel forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have launched a significant offensive, capturing territories like Aleppo and advancing toward Hama. HTS, formerly linked to al-Qaeda, is attempting to rebrand to broaden support. Meanwhile, the Assad regime faces pressure from weakened allies like Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia, while the fragmented political landscape in northern Syria adds to the instability. The renewed fighting has caused global concern, with the UN warning of severe risks to civilians and regional security.

[SYRIA MAP UPATE] per Thomas van Linge:

[TS] This is just a stunning collapse of the Assad regime. Has Tulsi made any statements?

[RELATED] If you’re wondering how bad Assad and his officers are: NEWS LINE: How a Massacre of Nearly 300 in Syria Was Revealed

2.) October CPI as expected (but high): 2.9%. Core CPI 3.3%

[TS] Seems like underlying inflation pressure is still there.

3.) Biden pardons son Hunter

This pardon wipes away Hunter’s criminal convictions on tax and gun charges despite Biden saying earlier in the year that he wouldn’t grant such a reprieve.

[TS] This is a terrible move. We all get his motivations (and he probably doesn’t care given his political reputation is largely torched), but a move like this will persuade those who still believe in impartial justice that it’s all a pretense — exactly what Trump wants.

Granted, this will have no impact on Trump’s actions. He will pardon whoever he chooses, just as he did during his first term. I expect to see some January 6 pardons right away. While he might use this as a pretense, it’s clear he would have done it regardless.

4.) CNN: Trump plans to replace current FBI director with firebrand Kash Patel, drawing bipartisan fire

President-elect Donald Trump plans to nominate Kash Patel as FBI director, a move sparking bipartisan concerns due to Patel’s controversial history as a staunch Trump loyalist. Patel has criticized the FBI and advocated for dismantling its Washington headquarters. Known for his role in discrediting the FBI’s Russia investigation and supporting Trump’s claims of a “deep state,” Patel’s potential appointment raises fears of politicizing the bureau. Trump’s announcement comes amid tension over replacing current FBI Director Christopher Wray, whose term extends three more years. The Senate faces a likely battle over Patel’s confirmation, reflecting concerns about his capacity to maintain the FBI’s apolitical integrity.

QUICK BITES:

1. NYT: Pete Hegseth’s Mother Accused Her Son of Mistreating Women for Years

   1. [TS] Oof, your own mother…

      

2. Trump nominates Charles Kushner (Jared’s father) as his Ambassador to France.

3. Three men in a Dublin nightclub followed a Jewish student into the bathroom before asking if he was Jewish and assaulting him.

4. Russian troops in eastern Ukraine have seized at least 10 villages and settlements in roughly as many days, according to a group with ties to the Ukrainian Army.

5. At least 68 people have fallen ill across 19 U.S. states in a salmonella outbreak believed to be linked to cucumbers.

5.) WaPo: Ukraine aid’s best-kept secret: Most of the money stays in the U.S.A.

[TS] If you’re looking for a great breakdown of the dollars, AEI has some great data/charts HERE.

6.) Blasphemy laws are making the rounds in open democracies.

• Denmark: Introduced a law prohibiting improper treatment of religious texts, including the Quran, following incidents of public burnings.

• UK: MP Tahir Ali asked the PM introduce measures to prohibit desecration of religious texts and targeted vilification of all the prophets of the Abrahamic faiths.

[TS] Embarrassing and spineless surrender to nations who value the free exchange of ideas.

7.) Median House Price 2000 vs 2024

Prices are adjusted for inflation. [TS] Rather remarkable even after the ’08 crash. Data by StatisticUrban:

2000:

2024:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. War Update: Russian forces rapidly advance in Ukraine, capturing 667 sq km in November with significant territorial gains in Donetsk and Kharkiv.

2. Trade Tariffs: Overview of Trump's tariff impacts on imports from Mexico and Canada during his first term.

3. Diplomatic Breakthrough: U.S. and France broker ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending year-long conflict with significant casualties and displacement.

4. Political Controversy: Trump transition team investigates Boris Epshteyn for allegedly seeking payments to 'promote' potential appointees.

NOT NEWS NEWS

5. Corporate Policy Shift: Walmart announces significant rollback of diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) initiatives.

6. Health Research: Study reveals alcohol's substantial link to violence and injury-related mortality during South African COVID-19 prohibition.

7. Tax Policy: Analysis shows 2025 TCJA extension significantly more expensive compared to 2012 Bush tax cut extension.

8. Energy Landscape: High-level overview of American energy production and consumption across different sources and sectors.

1.) REUTERS: Russia accelerates advance in Ukraine's east

Russian forces have advanced in Ukraine at the fastest rate since early 2022, capturing 667 sq km in November alone, with gains concentrated in Donetsk and Kharkiv. Ukraine’s defense remains strained, citing equipment delays and logistical challenges, while Russia employs encirclement tactics and heavy artillery. Both sides face high casualties amid intensifying battles.

Map by UnderstandingWar.org:

2.) Trump Tariffs cont.

[TS] CNN has a nice visualization that shows the scale of Trump tariffs in first term, vs on all imports (each square is $10 billion):

[TS] Mexico and Canada are some of our largest trading partners:

IMPORTS FROM MEXICO:

IMPORTS FROM CANADA:

[TS] If you’re interested in the trade data itself, you can find it HERE. If you’re interested in a more detailed breakout, including by some states, here’s a good thread on the matter by Cesar Hidalgo.

3.) CBS: President Biden announces ceasefire to end fighting between Israel and Hezbollah

The U.S., with French support, brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending a year-long conflict that killed nearly 3,800 in Lebanon and displaced over 1.2 million people. Lebanese forces and UN peacekeepers will secure the border, while Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River. Talks on Gaza tensions remain unresolved.

[UPDATE]

[TS] Per Ted Cruz (R-TX) on the Biden-imposed ceasefire in Lebanon (essentially it was forced on Israel by threatening a full-scale UN Security Council arms embargo).

"Biden officials pressured Israel into accepting the ceasefire by withholding weapons they needed to defend themselves and counter Hezbollah, and by threatening to facilitate a further, broader, binding international arms embargo through the UN."

4.) NYT: Top Trump Aide Accused of Asking for Money to ‘Promote’ Potential Appointees

President-elect Donald J. Trump ordered the investigation by his legal team into Boris Epshteyn, a powerful figure in the transition. Mr. Epshteyn denies the allegations.

"According to the review, Mr. Epshteyn met with Mr. Bessent in February, at a time when it was widely known that he was interested in the Treasury post, and proposed $30,000 to $40,000 a month to 'promote' Mr. Bessent around Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump’s estate in Florida."

QUICK BITES:

1. President-elect Donald Trump is said to have selected Kevin Hassett to lead the National Economic Council, a role spearheading the new administration’s tax, trade and spending agenda, according to people familiar with the matter.

   1. [TS] A conventional pick. Good to see.

2. Trump nominates Jim O’Neill to serve as the Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services (working alongside RFK Jr.).

   1. [TS] Let’s hope this guy is really in charge. I actually think he’s level headed and has some very sound ideas (especially around regulation).

3. On the other hand….John Phelan, Trump’s nominee for Secretary of the Navy, appears to have absolutely zero relevant experience for the job — other than having hosted a fundraising dinner for Trump at his $38 million home in Aspen.

4. Trump nominates Jay Bhattacharya as his pick to be the next leader of the National Institutes of Health.

5. UK news:

   1. PT1: The UK has overwhelmingly passed a bill (415 to 47) that makes it illegal for anyone currently 15 years old or younger to ever, in their lifetime, buy cigarettes. [TS] Kind of wild.

   2. PT2: There were 1,449 persecutions & 98 convictions for internet speech in Russia 2008-2017. By contrast, there were 1,696 persecutions & 1,399 convictions for internet speech in UK in 2016 *alone* - despite having a population half that of Russia. [TS] This type of censorship is loony.

6. Trump's New Attorney General Pick Has Mixed Record on Guns

   1. Pam Bondi backed "red flag" laws at the White House after Parkland. She clashed with gun-rights activists as Florida AG.
      

5.) Bloomberg: Walmart, World’s Biggest Retailer, Will Curb Diversity Efforts

Walmart Inc. is reversing course on diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives, joining a growing list of businesses retreating on DEI programs targeted by conservative activists.

The world's biggest retailer will no longer consider race and gender to boost diversity when granting supplier contracts, and stop collecting demographic data when assessing financing eligibility.

The most prominent company so far to pull back on diversity promises, Walmart on Monday confirmed it would stop using the term "DEI" in official communications. It will also curb racial equity training for staff, stop participating in notable rankings by LGBTQ advocacy group the Human Rights Campaign and review its support for Pride and other events.

[TS] Walmart is likely a bright signal to other corps. I expect a good amount to follow suit.

6.) How bad is alcohol?

[TS] Interesting paper by Kai Barron from South Africa titled:

Alcohol, violence and injury-induced mortality: Evidence from a modern-day prohibition

What did the paper look at?

The study explored the impact of a sudden nationwide alcohol sales ban in South Africa during the COVID-19 pandemic, examining its effects on injury-induced mortality and violent crime. Researchers used mortality and police crime data, employing a difference-in-difference analysis to assess changes in societal behaviors linked to the prohibition. Key findings indicated significant reductions in unnatural deaths, homicides, assaults, and rapes, highlighting the causal role of alcohol in violent behavior and injury-related harm.

[TS] Some interesting highlights:

• Alcohol is responsible for at least 14% of all injury related mortality:

  

  Graphs:

7.) Is a 2025 extension of the TCJA comparable to the 2012 extension of the Bush tax cuts?

[TS] In short: No. Andrew Lautz put together a great chart that shows how much more expensive it is today to borrow:

8.) High-level overview of American energy production and consumption by source and sector.

Graph by EIA:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Legal Bombshell: Jack Smith drops all federal charges against Trump after his re-election.

2. Trade War Threat: Trump proposes 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports.

NOT NEWS NEWS

3. Political Fundraising: Tulsi Gabbard's PAC raises $1.9 million but spends most on operating expenses.

4. Nonprofit Scandal: D.C. Attorney General sues activist for misusing $75K of charity funds.

5. Political Shift: Groups moving toward Republicans under Trump's influence.

6. Crime Study: Research finds gay men commit very little violent crime.

7. Fiscal Challenge: Massive cuts needed to bring US deficits down to 3% of GDP.

8. Migration Trend: Blue states experiencing significant population exodus.

9. DEI Controversy: Study suggests DEI training may increase perception of bias without evidence.

1.) NBC: Jack Smith files to drop all federal charges against Donald Trump

Special Counsel Jack Smith dropped all federal charges against President-elect Donald Trump regarding classified documents and election interference after Trump’s re-election. Legal hurdles, including Supreme Court rulings granting presidential immunity and DOJ policy barring prosecution of sitting presidents, prevented the cases from proceeding. Smith’s team cited constitutional challenges and conflicting national interests but affirmed the merit of the charges. Smith plans to resign before Trump’s inauguration, marking a historic moment as Trump prepares to return to office amid ongoing debate over rule of law and presidential accountability.

[TS] I don’t know. I know there are all sorts of legal arguments about “if he drops it without prejudice then maybe they can retry…” but in my opinion: Don’t obey in advance. Don’t do his dirty work for him. Oh he would fire you and drop the case anyway? Ok, then let HIM do that.

2.) Trump says he will implement a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico on "ALL products coming into the United States" on his first day taking office.

[TS] A lot to unpack here. To start, this isn’t the first time on this merry-go-round. He threatened similar action against Mexico during his first term: Trump threatened tariffs on all Mexican imports to combat illegal immigration that would start at 5% and eventually ratchet up to 25%:

[TS] So, how serious is he? Who knows. Will he buckle before he even takes office after a few bad days in the market? Time will tell.

The usual cadence from his first term was:

• Trump tweets tariff threat

• Govts, companies scramble to find a way for Trump to declare victory without big changes

• Freakout ends without tariffs

• Trump declares victory

So, what happens if he does put a 25% tariff on Canadian/Mexico goods? Recall, tariffs are one of the few powers the President can impose unilaterally.

What would the tax increase look like?

[TS] US buys around $400B in manufactured goods from Mexico and $400B in goods from Canada. $400B + $400B = $800B. $800B x 25% = $200B increase!

[TS] What specific items? There are tons, of course, but to highlight a few:

Fruits and vegetables:

[TS] Then again, who cares about fruit and veggie prices? You think Americans are eating those?

Gas (from Canada):

Gas prices, especially in the Midwest, are influenced by Canadian pipelines that transport crude oil to key refineries across the US. These pipelines are essential for supplying the refineries that produce gasoline and other fuels:

Building costs:

Key materials we rely on from Canada:

• $105B in cement/minerals

• $28B in lumber/paper

• $33B in metals/tools

25% jump on that = $40B

[UPDATE]

[TS] Found a good tariff tracker. Here’s a good history on tariffs, per TaxFoundation:

[UPDATE 2] Trump now wants to add 10% on China too

Per Washington Times: Trump says he’ll impose 25% tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico, 10% on China on first day.

[TS] 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico + 10% tariffs on China will impact the consumer price level if the Fed accommodates.

If the Fed doesn’t accommodate, then the tariffs will reduce wages and profits and the consumer price level will remain fixed.

In both cases, we are poorer.

3.) MotherJones: Tulsi Gabbard Keeps Starting Up PACs. Where Is the Money Going?

Tulsi’s PAC called Defend Freedom, Inc.

Tens of thousands of people contributed to Gabbard’s PAC. Through mid-October it raised $1.9 million, including a $16,552 transfer from another Gabbard PAC called Team Tulsi.

Of all the money it pulled in, Defend Freedom, Inc. devoted only $20,000 to contributions for a small number of candidates,

Where did all the money go? Gabbard’s outfit spent $1.3 million on operating expenses—at least $1 million on fundraising and direct mail, according to its filings with the Federal Election Commission. Like many PACs, it acted mainly as a money-churning machine that generated donations that mostly profited vendors and consultants.

[SEMI-RELATED] Independent UK: Tulsi Gabbard’s history with Russia is even more concerning than you think

4.) NYT: Regulator Sues Anti-Police Activist Who Spent Charity Funds on Himself

The D.C. Attorney General has sued Brandon Anderson, the leader of a nonprofit who sought to abolish police, saying he used $75K from his charity for mansion rentals, luxury clothes and a trip to Cancun.

5.) NYT: Groups that shifted toward Republicans

[TS] Donald Trump, of all people, accomplished this.

6.) Study: Gay men commit very little violent crime

Study by Kevin M. Beaver, Eric J. Connolly, Joseph A. Schwartz, Brian B. Boutwell, J. C. Barnes, Joseph L. Nedelec titled:

Sexual Orientation and Involvement in Nonviolent and Violent Delinquent Behaviors: Findings From the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health

[TS] Surprisingly, in this study at least, they were lower than woman:

[TS] Nonviolent delinquency was higher than woman, though

[SEMI-RELATED - CRIME] Between 1970 and 2008, there was a reversal of fortune between the U.S. and Europe when it came to crime.

The U.S. started with higher crime rates, but Europe had higher crime rates (minus homicide) by the end of the time series. A large chunk of this was down to incarceration:

[TS] I’ve covered this previously, but a large % of violent crime is committed by a small % of people. As allergic to people are with “three strike” laws, they would curb a big chunk of crime.

I think that’s a large problem with the left. They place too much weight on the well-being of criminals and too little on the people they harm, so they end up opposing long prison sentences even though they would work.

7.) How big of cuts are needed to bring US deficits down to 3% of GDP?

Per Garrett Watson (Tax Foundation):

Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent's "3-3-3" plan proposes bringing US deficits down to 3% of GDP.

If we assume a current policy baseline (including TCJA permanence), how big of a swing in spending or revenue would that be?

Over $2 trillion annually by the early 2030s.

[TS] Oof. 3% of GDP doesn’t sound too difficult until you see the numbers. Even 3% would be challenging…

8.) Domestic state migration

[TS] It’s clear that the blue cities/states are the ones that are poorly governed. If not, why all the foot traffic out of the states? That’s the best way to tell, in my opinion. Chart per arctotherium:

9.) Is DEI training effective?

A study, titled:

INSTRUCTING ANIMOSITY: HOW DEI PEDAGOGY PRODUCES THE HOSTILE ATTRIBUTION BIAS

by NCRI examines the effectiveness of DEI (Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion) training programs and presents findings suggesting unintended negative consequences.

The study examined the effects of DEI training materials (specifically from Ibram X. Kendi and Robin DiAngelo’s writings) on attitudes and behaviors. Researchers exposed participants (423 undergraduates from Rutgers) to DEI narratives and measured outcomes such as perceptions of prejudice, support for punitive measures, and authoritarian tendencies. They used controlled experiments with materials focusing on “anti-oppression” and “anti-racism,” comparing responses to those of control groups exposed to neutral content.

[TS] There’s a lot in here, but I’ll just pick out a few pieces:

The participants who were exposed to the 'racism' scenario imagined more racism into existence. They believed there was a lot more bias and more microaggressions, even though there was nothing.

THE SCENARIO:

RESULTS:

Figure 2 a shows that the anti-oppression intervention from Kendi/DiAngelo influenced participants to impute bias without evidence. Further analysis revealed that exposure to anti-oppression DEI narratives not only influenced participants’ perceptions of racism but also altered their willingness to punish perceived perpetrators.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Russia's Yemen Pipeline - Russia recruiting hundreds of Yemeni fighters through Houthi-linked trafficking network, luring them with false promises of jobs and citizenship

2. Trump Legal Update - New York fraud case sentencing postponed indefinitely for former president

NOT NEWS NEWS

3. Drug Crisis Shift - CDC data shows significant decline in fentanyl overdose deaths according to recent analysis

4. Immigration System Reality - DOJ reports vast majority (86%) of asylum claims in US fail final approval process

5. Labor Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs releases data on undocumented workforce distribution across US industries

6. Housing Crisis Data - USA Facts provides state-by-state breakdown of homeless populations

7. Perception vs Reality - YouGov study reveals Americans significantly miscalculate demographic group sizes, particularly overestimating minorities

1.) Financial Times: Russia recruits Yemeni mercenaries to fight in Ukraine

Mysterious Houthi-linked company duping men into joining Moscow’s war machine

Russia has recruited hundreds of Yemeni men to fight in Ukraine, facilitated by a trafficking network linked to Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Many recruits were misled with promises of lucrative jobs and citizenship, only to be forcibly conscripted into the Russian military. This effort underscores deepening ties between Moscow and the Houthis, driven by Russia’s confrontation with the West, as well as its collaboration with other international militant groups. These Yemeni mercenaries, alongside recruits from other nations, highlight how the war in Ukraine is drawing in foreign fighters amid rising casualties and efforts by Russia to avoid a full domestic mobilization.

2.) Trump’s sentencing in NY is canceled indefinitely.

[TS] Fairly obvious this would happen.

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump selects Russ Vought, architect of Project 2025 chapter, to lead White House budget office. Vought has:

   1. Asserted presidential authorities to unilaterally claw back spending, w/o Congress

   2. Said "we are living in a post-Constitutional time"

   3. Has crafted plans for Trump to deploy the military to quash civil unrest and seize more control over the Justice Department

   4. Aggressive proponent of using "Schedule F" to strip protections from much of the federal workforce

2. Trump picks Scott Bessent to serve as Treasury Secretary. [TS] Definitely a qualified guy, but he literally worked for George Soros. I’m sure MAGA is going to love that.

3. Trump to offer Kelly Loeffler the job as the Secretary of Agriculture.

   1. [TS] Loeffler (former CEO of crypto company Bakkt) and her husband Sprecher (current CEO of intercontinental exchange, which majority owns Bakkt) are selling Bakkt to Trump’s Truth Social and then being awarded a cabinet position?

4. Citadel’s CEO Kenneth Griffin: “The US does not have fiscal room to cut taxes.”

5. [TS] Trump admin seems keen on trying to get cute with accounting treatment of TCJA so that it can extend them without looking like it’s a huge budget hit. Or claiming they’re “permanent” to hide the $3.9T increase that would result from extending the expiring portions. A good comparison to Enron accounting practices HERE by John Arnold.

6. Denver Mayor Johnson would be willing to go to jail to block deportations.

3.) Fentanyl overdoses have dropped dramatically.

Graph by Kevin Drum (data by CDC):

Longer timeline:

4.) DOJ / EOIR: 86% of Asylum Claimants in the USA are not legitimate asylees

Out of 100 asylum claimants, only 14 are granted asylum, highlighting stages like interviews, reviews, and decisions by immigration judges.

[TS] This is what most people fail to realize who want a strong border. These people are technically getting in “legally” - through a lax asylum system. So, even if you complete the wall etc. they can still come and seek asylum. You need true reform via legislation and additional staff to handle/adjudicate cases. This is by no means hand waiving on policy or EOs done by the president — those can absolutely have an impact — but you need a durable solution through Congress.

SEMI-RELATED….

5.) Goldman Sachs: estimates of the US industries with the highest shares of illegal immigrant workers

6.) USA Facts: Homeless by state

7.) YouGov: Americans overestimate the size of minority groups and underestimate the size of most majority groups

[TS] I was surprised at a few of these. Only 50% with a HHI above $25k? Still skeptical of that…

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Trump AG Nominee: Matt Gaetz withdraws from consideration; Pam Bondi nominated with controversial history as Florida AG.

2. Russia Missile Test: Russia launches new intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Ukraine's Dnipro region, sending warning message to West.

3. Overtime Pay Block: Trump-appointed judge halts Biden's policy to expand overtime pay eligibility for workers earning under $58,000.

4. Brazil Coup Investigation: Bolsonaro and allies indicted over alleged plot to retain power after 2022 election loss.

NOT NEWS NEWS

5. Regulation Reform Plan: Economist proposes sunset rule strategy to cut regulations using Idaho's 95% reduction model as example.

6. Healthcare Spending: US healthcare spending as percentage of GDP has remained relatively flat since 2009, with slower Medicare growth.

7. Ghost Engineers Study: Research finds 9.5% of software engineers are "ghosts" who do minimal work, with higher rates in remote positions.

1.) Matt Gaetz withdraws his name for AG

[TS] Let’s pay close attention to the language in his resignation letter. He already resigned from office (he was serving in the 118th Congress, the 119th Congress runs January 3, 2025, to January 3, 2027).

“I do not intend to take the oath of office for the same office in the 119th Congress to pursue the position of Attorney General.”

Sounds like he’s leaving the door open to go back to Congress during the 119th. Maybe he’ll just join Trump’s administration. Maybe DeSantis will nominate him to the Senate (highly doubtful).

[UPDATE] Trump nominates Pam Bondi for AG

Quick list on Pam:

• 37th AG of Florida

• Received a $25,000 donation to her PAC from Trump’s foundation while her office was reportedly considering joining a lawsuit against Trump University for fraud. Following the donation, Bondi declined to join the lawsuit. Bondi's office justified nixing Trump U suit by saying she'd received only one customer complaint, but the AP found “at least 22 fraud complaints.” Both Bondi and Trump denied any wrongdoing, but the IRS later fined Trump for the improper use of nonprofit funds.

  • Trump charged $4,955 for Bondi's fundraiser to be held at Mar-a-Lago. He charged his own pres campaign $140,000.

• Bondi postponed a scheduled execution to attend a campaign fundraising event.

• Worked as a registered lobbyist for Qatar

• Has been associated with Scientologists through fundraising events and speeches at Scientology gatherings, but is not a scientologist herself.

• Bondi pressured two attorneys to resign who were investigating Lender Processing Services, a financial services company now known as Black Knight, following the robosigning scandal, as part of their work for Florida's Economic Crime Division. After the resignations, Bondi received campaign contributions from Lender Processing Services, though she denied any quid pro quo

• Co-hosted Fox’s “The Five” show even though she was still on the state payroll (as AG) in Florida.

• [TS] Bondi on Clinton: “Lock her up, I love that.” - from the folks who say (rightly), “Don’t politicize the justice department.”

[TS] She’ll fit right in.

2.) NYT: With Use of New Missile, Russia Sends a Threatening Message to the West

Footage of the (6) missiles:

Russian Missile Launch:

• Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) toward Dnipro, Ukraine, claiming it was an experimental ballistic missile based on the RS-26 Rubezh design.

• The missile included MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) technology but did not carry nuclear warheads.

Escalation Concerns:

• The launch raised fears of potential nuclear escalation, as IRBMs and ICBMs can be nuclear-capable. However, the missile fired was confirmed to be non-nuclear.

• Ukrainian President Zelenskyy called this attack a severe escalation, emphasizing its scale and brutality.

International Reactions:

• The U.S. was briefly notified by Russia before the launch and informed Ukraine and allied nations to prepare for such developments.

• The Kremlin has updated its nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons and intensifying tensions with the West.

Ukraine’s Response and Strikes:

• Ukraine recently used U.S.-made ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike Russian targets, including a North Korean command post in Russia’s Kursk region, reportedly injuring a senior North Korean general.

Putin’s Remarks:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed the U.S. for escalating the conflict and justified the missile launch as a response to perceived aggression.

Regional Impacts:

• The missile targeted critical infrastructure in Dnipro but caused no casualties. Six additional missiles aimed at the region were intercepted.

3.) NEW REPUBLIC: A Trump Judge Just Nixed Overtime Pay for Millions—and Media Yawned

A Trump-appointed federal judge blocked President Biden’s policy to expand overtime pay eligibility for salaried workers earning less than $58,000 annually, leaving millions of workers without potential pay increases.

Biden’s rule sought to increase the current overtime threshold from $35,000 (set during Trump’s administration) to $58,000, benefiting around 4 million workers. The decision mirrors a similar court block of Obama’s attempt to raise the threshold to $47,000 in 2016.

The lawsuit was backed by MAGA Republicans, including Texas AG Ken Paxton, and business groups such as the National Retail Federation and the International Franchise Association, which represent major corporations like Walmart and McDonald’s.

4.) CNN: Brazil’s Bolsonaro and allies indicted in 2022 coup plot probe

The Brazilian authorities announced on Thursday that they were recommending criminal charges against former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro over his role in a broad plot to cling to power after he lost the 2022 presidential election.

[TS] No problem. Just run again, take power, and fire the prosecutors.

QUICK BITES:

1. ICC, who submitted applications for warrants of arrest for Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli PM Yoav Gallant, has now issued arrest warrants.

2. ABC: New details of Hegseth sexual assault claim documented in police report

   1. The woman who accused Pete Hegseth of sexual assault in 2017 told police at the time that he took her phone and blocked her from leaving his hotel room on the night of the incident, according to a 22-page police report

3. Economist visualizes Elon’s online activity:

   1. [TS] Gotta have scheduled posts or a terrible sleep schedule.

      

      [RELATED] MPs to summon Elon Musk to testify about X’s role in UK summer riots. [TS] This is just silly. Not to mention the recent stories of UK police arresting citizens for social media posts are genuinely embarrassing (at least from an American perspective).

4. Senators Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) just introduced the Carbon Dioxide Removal Investment Act, which would provide a $250/ton tax credit for permanent CDR. Importantly, it's technology neutral. Any high-quality, permanent carbon removal would qualify.

5. Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) concedes race against Dave McCormick (R) for senate seat in PA.

5.) How could DOGE actually cut thousands of regulations?

Economist James Broughel outlines a sensible plan:

1. Each agency issues a sunset rule in the first few months of Trump's term. Model these after the Trump 1.0-era HHS sunset regulation.

2. The rules should apply to all CFR sections under an agency's control. An expiration date is inserted into its sections of code, founded on authority in the Regulatory Flexibility Act.

3. Set the sunset ~3 years out. Give ample time to review regs, but avoid the danger of a Congressional Review Act resolution of disapproval.

4. After three years' time, agencies finalize regulations to re-codify the regulations they want to KEEP. Everything else expires.

This approach flips the burden. Agencies must decide what to keep as opposed to what to cut.

This is a proven model. Idaho cut or simplified 95 percent of its regulations since 2019 following an approach similar to this.

[TS] Why the focus on regulations? Let’s take a fairly straightforward example from our infrastructure: Building a transmission line. It takes 10 YEARS to do it. Why? Have a look:

[SEMI-RELATED] About 90% ($1.2B/year) of Federal contracts awarded to NGOs are noncompetitive awards.

21% ($33.1B/year) of Federal contracts are noncompetitive, as of this fiscal year.

6.) Health care spending as a portion of GDP has basically flatlined since 2009(ish)

[TS] So they bent it…

Per Mathew Zeitlin: “from 2000 to 2010, medicare spending per person grew faster than private insurance spending, but from 2010 to 2022 it grew at a substantially slower pace”

7.) ~9.5% of software engineers are “Ghost Engineers”

Stanford researcher Yegor Denisov-Blanch released his research on software engineering productivity based on data from >50k engineers from 100s of companies.

How do we know 9.5% of software engineers are Ghosts?

Our model quantifies productivity by analyzing source code from private Git repos, simulating a panel of 10 experts evaluating each commit across multiple dimensions.

We found that 14% of software engineers working remotely do almost no work (Ghost Engineers), compared to 9% in hybrid roles and 6% in the office.

Comparison between remote and office engineers:

On average, engineers working from the office perform better, but "5x" engineers are more common remotely.

Another way to look at this is counting code commits.

While this is a flawed way to measure productivity, it reveals inactivity: ~58% make <3 commits/month, aligning with our metric.

The other 42% make trivial changes, like editing one line or character--pretending to work.

Assume every company below has 9.5% of its software engineers doing virtually nothing, in line with our research findings.

Here's how much each could save annually by letting them go

[TS] Kind of hard to believe, but maybe I’m in the wrong line of work.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Sex Trafficking Allegations: Federal inquiry documents suggest payments to women by Matt Gaetz.

NOT NEWS NEWS

2. Children's Media Manipulation: CocoMelon scientifically designs content to captivate young viewers.

3. Ukraine Missile Strategy: Analysis of changes in U.S. missile deployment for Ukraine.

4. Deregulation Plan: Musk and Ramaswamy propose aggressive federal workforce and regulation reduction strategy.

5. Wage Reality: Extremely few workers actually earn the federal minimum wage of $7.25.

6. Job Market Trend: Healthcare sector driving most job growth.

7. Fiscal Burden: Government interest costs have quadrupled since 2015.

8. Industrial Automation: United States drops out of top 10 in global robot density in manufacturing.

1.) NYT: Federal Inquiry Traced Payments From Gaetz to Women

A document prepared by federal investigators bolsters claims by women who say they were hired for sex by Matt Gaetz, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s choice for attorney general, who denies wrongdoing.

From one of the author’s Michael Schmidt:

We obtained a document from the federal sex trafficking investigation of Gaetz. It shows he made thousands $ in payments to women who told investigators they had sex w/him for money. We are publishing a redacted version of the document:

[TS] Quite the web. Some payments reportedly made through his adopted son’s Venmo.

[RELATED] The House Ethics Committee voted on whether to release the Gaetz report

Per CNN’s Jim Sciutto:

The Republicans voted to protect Gaetz, according to a person familiar.

Rep. Susan Wild, the top Democrat on the House Ethics Committee, stressed that her party wanted to release the report on former Rep. Matt Gaetz and did not agree with the GOP’s decision, adding: “There was no consensus on this issue.”

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump nominates former acting AG Matt Whitaker as ambassador to NATO.

   1. [TS] Whitaker was on the advisory board of World Patent Marketing, a company shut down in 2017 and fined nearly $26 million by the Federal Trade Commission for defrauding consumers.

2. [UPDATE] on Linda McMahon, Trump’s pick for Education secretary, resigned from a state education board shortly after a newspaper asked her about her false claim that she had an education degree (per WaPo).

   1. [TS] Very common for college graduates to forget which degree they have.

      1. ‘Students come up to me—big, burly students—with tears in their eyes and say, “Sir, I forgot my major.”’

3. Charlie Kirk may be interested in running for Arizona governor in 2026

4. Dr. Oz is receiving pushback from the right on his previous sympathetic coverage of trans people.

5. [TS] I mentioned yesterday about the vacuum that would be left if America retreats from the world. I stumbled upon a quote from President Roosevelt in June 1940 that serves as a “devastating rebuke to the "America First” delusion”:

   1. “Some indeed still hold to the now somewhat obvious delusion that we of the United States can safely permit the United States to become a lone island, a lone island in a world dominated by the philosophy of force.

      Such an island may be the dream of those who still talk and vote as isolationists. Such an island represents to me and to the overwhelming majority of Americans today a helpless nightmare of a people without freedom-the nightmare of a people lodged in prison, handcuffed, hungry, and fed through the bars from day to day by the contemptuous, unpitying masters of other continents.”

6. Trump’s popular vote margin shrinks further to 1.7% (smallest victory gap since Bush in ’04)

   

7. Repeal of ranked choice voting in Alaska fails by 664 votes

8. MIT announced that students from families making <$200k attend free. The UT System announced that students from families making <$100k attend free.

2.) How addictive is CocoMelon?

[TS] NYTs had an unsettling article (to me) on CocoMelon. First, the reach of CocoMelon:

It's audience research day at Moonbug Entertainment, the London company that produces 29 of the most popular online kids' shows in the world, found on more than 150 platforms in 32 languages - and with 7.8 billion views on YouTube in March alone.

So, how do they build their content?

Once a month, children are brought here, one at a time, and shown a handful of episodes to figure out exactly which parts of the shows are engaging and which are tuned out.

For anyone older than 2 years old, the team deploys a whimsically named tool: the Distractatron.

It's a small TV screen, placed a few feet from the larger one, that plays a continuous loop of banal, real-world scenes — a guy pouring a cup of coffee, someone getting a haircut - each lasting about 20 seconds. Whenever a youngster looks away from the Moonbug show to glimpse the Distractatron, a note is jotted down.

[TS] So they’re purposefully designing CocoMelon to put babies in a trance like state. Precisely optimizing the destruction of attention spans on ourselves is not good.

They’re doing this for a kids show. Imagine what type of money companies are burning to capture your attention online, or with social media, or gaming, or gambling/casinos.

#StoptheSlop

3.) [TS] Good explainer by Michael Weiss on “What changed for Ukraine to use longer-range U.S. missiles?”

4.) WaPo’s Jeff Stein: Musk, Ramaswamy today gave us first "DOGE" roadmap; as I understand the key steps…

1. Deploy AI for Regulation Cuts: Place DOGE personnel in agencies to identify thousands of regulations for elimination using advanced technology like AI.

2. Presidential Approval of Cuts: Present Trump with a list of regulations to eliminate across government for his direct approval.

3. Streamline Workforce: Identify the minimum employees required for each agency’s core functions, assuming a reduced need post-regulation cuts (referencing Musk’s drastic headcount reduction at X).

4. Federal Workforce Reductions: Implement severance packages or early retirement incentives to reduce federal employees, as proposed by Musk/Ramaswamy.

5. Cut Lapsed Programs: Eliminate programs without active Congressional spending authorization (e.g., VA healthcare, NASA, antipoverty initiatives).

6. Suspend Payments for Audits: Approve a temporary halt on federal payments amid large-scale audits, though details remain unclear.

7. Challenge Budget Law: Assert presidential authority to halt spending without Congress by contesting the 1974 budget law on impoundments.

Court Challenges Expected: Plan appears reliant on executive actions, prepared to face judicial battles as needed.

[TS] I think most people can get on board with some of this. But others? Like cutting lapsed programs? Suspending payments for audits? Challenging budget law (which would consolidate even more power to the executive branch)?

I doubt you’d have broad support for that (assuming the public fully understood the consequences - like cutting VA healthcare).

[RELATED] Trump's next budget chief, Russ Vought believes Trump will have the authority to stop spending programs *without* Congress

Russ Vought (who will almost certainly be confirmed) has said in the past:

"The Constitutional principle is certainly power of the purse means that Congress gets to set the *ceiling* ... You weren't ever meant to be forced to spend it"

[RELATED 2] The Federal Government's Workforce Has Stayed Quite Steady In The Last 60+ Years

[TS] Now, given the increase in the local/state government workforce, I think it’s relevant to ask who’s paying for the local/state governments, NGOs, and contractors to administer ever more programs?

5.) Few workers actually make federal Minimum wage of $7.25

Just 68,000 people in the country make the federal minimum of $7.25/hr, less than 1 in 1000 workers.

[TS] Some states have opted to increase their minimum wage, but even in states where it’s still $7.25, almost no one is actually making that.

6.) Healthcare has been driving job growth.

[TS] Bo McCready put together a nice graphic showing job growth by type over the last 20 years.

7.) CRFB: Interest costs have quadrupled since 2015

While inflation played a role, prices during the same time period were up less than 30%.

Why the increase? Debt is way up and interest rates are way up. Bad combination.

[SEMI-RELATED] From 2014 to 2023, the typical monthly mortgage payment increased by more than $1,100

[TS] That is pretty wild. You can see the impact rising rates had on mortgages in the later years.

8.) International Federation of Robotics: US drops out of top 10

Global Robot Density in Factories Doubled in Seven Years

The IFR released its latest report (2023) on the robot density in the manufacturing industry. Their metric is robots installed per 10,000 employees:

[TS] For reference the last report from 2020:

• China: 246 —> 470 (91%)

• USA: 255 —> 295 (15.7%)

Not an encouraging growth figure from the US.

[SEMI-RELATED] China is now announcing sanctions on US drone companies, significantly reducing their battery supply.

[TS] Drones are undoubtedly the future of warfare, and it’s worth considering that credits like ‘45X’ (the Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit from Biden’s IRA), which have driven the US battery boom, are serving a very real national security function.

The effect is very clear:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Baltic Cable Sabotage: Chinese vessel Yi Peng destroyed telecom cables between Finland-Germany and Sweden-Lithuania, following previous year's pipeline damage.

2. Chrome Divestiture: DOJ plans to ask judge to force Google to sell Chrome browser, potentially worth $20B.

3. Brazil Assassination Plot: Police arrested ex-Bolsonaro aide and others in alleged plot to kill President Lula and stage coup.

4. EU Tech Policy: EU plans to require Chinese companies to build factories and share tech knowledge in exchange for subsidies.

5. Ukraine Military Action: Ukraine fired US-made ATACMS missiles into Russia's Bryansk region for first time after restrictions lifted.

6. Hong Kong Crackdown: 45 pro-democracy leaders, including Joshua Wong, sentenced to up to 10 years in prison.

NOT NEWS NEWS

7. Immigration Data: Trump administration released more noncitizens with criminal charges/convictions than previous administrations.

8. Student Loan Costs: Government losing money on all student loans except Parent PLUS, with $340B cost increase over decade.

9. Ukraine War Poll: Gallup finds majority of Ukrainians now favor quick, negotiated end to war for first time.

1.) Monday, the Chinese vessel Yi Peng destroyed 2 telecom cables connecting Finland-Germany & Sweden-Lithuania.

Last year, the Chinese vessel NewNew Polar Bear destroyed the undersea gas pipeline Balticconnector between Finland & Estonia last year. And now Monday, the Chinese vessel Yi Peng destroyed 2 telecom cables connecting Finland-Germany & Sweden-Lithuania.

[RELATED] AP: Damage to Baltic undersea cables appears to be sabotage, Germany’s defense minister says

Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that damage to two undersea data cables in the Baltic Sea — one connecting Finland to Germany and another between Lithuania and Sweden — is likely sabotage, although no conclusive proof has been found. He dismissed the possibility of accidental damage, calling it a “hybrid action” and highlighting Russia as a potential threat amid ongoing European security concerns. Finland, Germany, and Sweden have launched investigations, with Swedish police treating the incidents as suspected sabotage. European leaders emphasize the need to protect critical infrastructure as threats from hybrid warfare grow.

[TS] Trying to wrap my head around the motivation here. I’ve seen some say China is setting up for a Taiwan invasion, but I don’t see how this furthers that goal.

2.) BLOOMBERG: DOJ Will Push Google to Sell off Chrome to Break Search Monopoly.

Top Justice Department antitrust officials have decided to ask a judge to force Google to sell off its Chrome browser.

Alphabet Inc.’s Chrome browser could go for as much as $20 billion if a judge agrees to a Justice Department proposal to sell the business, in what would be a historic crackdown on one of the world’s biggest tech companies.

[TS] I am a little torn on this. For one, I think breaking up these massive companies would actually be a net positive for consumers as it would increase competition, drive innovation etc. On the other hand, the DOJ’s resources and time is finite. Every minute they spend on X, they can’t spend on Y. So, what are the alternatives?

Why spend time going after Google (who spends billions on important R&D with massive positive externalities) when you could go after the AMA who restricts the doctor supply via:

• Medical School Seats: The AMA has supported accreditation standards that ensure quality but have also limited the expansion of medical schools and residency programs, indirectly capping the number of new doctors.

• Residency Programs: The number of residency slots in the U.S. is largely dictated by Medicare funding, which caps how many residents hospitals can train. The AMA advocates for increased funding but has faced criticism for not addressing bottlenecks fast enough.

What about the FAA limiting pilots? What about licensing for electricians or contractors? What about government imposed production quotas for agriculture? What about labor unions shutting down ports?

• Port unions have a half century history of opposing automation that has left our ports far less productive and automated than competitors around the world. The union demand for less automation is not just a bargaining tactic — It’s how we got here! [TS] Don’t get me started on the ports!

What about the Jones Act that mandates that goods transported between U.S. ports must be carried on ships that are:

• Owned by U.S. citizens

• Built in the United States

• Registered in the U.S.

• Crewed by U.S. citizens or permanent residents

[TS] I know I know, by this point I’m well outside of the scope of the DOJ. But c’mon! There are some low hanging fruit to be picked out there. Also, I think it’s a hard case. It’s a “free” product that has several competitors which are near costless to switch to. I think Chrome is a different beast than search (ie Google.com).

3.) NBC: Police arrest ex-Bolsonaro aide, four others in alleged plot to kill Brazil’s Lula in coup

The arrests were the first time in the investigation that federal police mentioned a plot to kill Lula and Geraldo Alckmin, his vice president, and stage a coup to stop him from returning to power.

4.) FT: EU to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies

Brussels is planning to require Chinese businesses to have factories in Europe and share technological knowhow in return for EU subsidies.

[TS] How the tables have turned…China has long used this strategy of pushing for tech transfer in exchange for market access. If you’re looking for a good article on tech transfer, Kyle Chan wrote one in ‘High Capacity’ HERE.

[SEMI-RELATED] BLOOMBERG: China’s Chip Advances Stall as US Curbs Hit Huawei AI Product

[TS] Good to see that export controls actually work. Will Trump cancel them?

[SEMI-RELATED 2] FT: China is quickly outstripping the US in research spending.

[TS] One wonders what a Government Efficiency panel would find in China’s research!

5.) AP: Ukraine fires several US-made longer-range missiles into Russia for the first time

Russia's military says Ukraine fired 6 US-made ATACMS missiles at Russia's Bryansk region overnight. The announcement comes shortly after Washington lifted restrictions on Ukraine using U.S.-made longer-range missiles to strike Russia.

[TS] Seems the reporting on this being limited to Kursk was incorrect.

[RELATED]

CNBC reported that “Moscow signaled to the West that it’s ready for a nuclear confrontation after Ukraine was given permission to attack Russian territory — and appeared to quickly act on that greenlight — using U.S.-made long-range missiles.”

Most experts agree that the risk of Russia using such weapons is low, but it’s not negligible.

US officials speaking to the Associated Press said they had anticipated a response from Russia, but that Russian officials’ warnings were viewed as inflammatory rhetoric, and would not provoke any change in US action.

[TS] Another “red line” from Russia. No different than the previous “If Ukraine gets XYZ…” This is basically why people are shouting “WW3!” However, plenty of of “world” conflicts already on the map. Consider:

• Russia (and North Korea) are fighting Ukraine

• Israel is fighting Iran

What happens if China invades Taiwan? Speaking of China…

6.) NYT: Dozens of Hong Kong Pro-Democracy Leaders Are Jailed Up to 10 Years

The 45 defendants, including Joshua Wong, were at the forefront of the opposition movement crushed by Beijing. Many had already been in jail for years.

[TS] If the U.S. withdraws from the world, it creates a vacuum for human rights and dignity to erode.

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump taps Dr. Mehmet Oz to serve as the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator.

   1. [TS] Another fairly ridiculous potential appointment. A notable line in his presser:

   2. “He will also cut waste and fraud within our Country’s most expensive Government Agency, which is a third of our Nation’s Healthcare spend, and a quarter of our entire National Budget.”

   3. Hard for me to interpret that as anything other than possible cuts to Medicare. Gotta pay for those tax cuts somehow! Tariffs certainly don’t get you the whole way there.

2. Trump expected to name Lutnick as Commerce Chief. [TS] He’s a big tariffs guy.

3. ABC’s Katherine Folders: “Trump's team is vetting Russ Vought - a Project 2025 architect - for a top administration post, sources tell me.”

4. President-elect Donald Trump is nominating the billionaire professional wrestling mogul Linda McMahon to be secretary of the Education Department, tasked with overseeing an agency Trump has promised to dismantle.

5. [RELATED] Per Gabe Fleisher: “No president has had a Cabinet nominee rejected by a Senate controlled by their own party since 1925, when a Republican-led Senate twice rejected Calvin Coolidge’s attempts to nominate Charles B. Warren as Attorney General.”

6. Pew: Republicans are more likely than Democrats to identify as working class:

   

   1. [TS] A little humorous that the poorest third and the richest third both say they’re working class.

4. ISRAEL/HAMAS: The head of the Mossad and IDF representative to hostage talks Nitzan Allon have requested a wider mandate in hostage negotiations. They told Netanyahu without it, there was no chance of a deal. Netanyahu said no. The hostages have been forsaken.

5. Per Reuters: Walmart spokesperson on Trump’s tariffs: “We’re concerned that significantly increased tariffs could lead to increased costs for our customers.”

   1. [TS] But I was assured that foreign countries pay the tariffs and not the customers…

6. [TS] Big NYT story on SpaceX raises concerns about the sonic boom from Starship. However, the quotes the FAA basically saying that the sonic boom won’t cause damage to physical structures in nearby towns.

   1. In short: Starship sonic boom created an overpressure event exceeding 11 pounds per square foot. FAA said damage unlikely “until the level hits about 20 pounds per square foot.”

7. Apple AI in China: The Hill’s George Cain on Apple’s operations in China:

   1. “I've dug into Apple's operations in China for almost a decade.

      The company is in trouble there. As Apple races to roll out Apple Intelligence globally, it faces a stark choice in China. The country’s strict AI regulations require companies to hand over their algorithms for government review and ensure their AI systems “adhere to the correct political direction.”

      For Apple, this means either walking away from its largest overseas market or creating a separate, censored version of its AI assistant that advances the Chinese Communist Party’s surveillance and control objectives.”

7.) Cato Institute: Trump released more noncitizens charged or convicted of crimes.

Data from DHS:

[TS] This surprised me, and I was curious how that could be the case. The reason: Under President Obama, immigration enforcement prioritized removing recent border crossers and serious criminals, focusing on public safety threats. President Trump’s 2017 executive order removed these prioritizations, directing agencies to target all individuals eligible for deportation regardless of criminal history.

Per Cato:

Trump wrote in the order that it would be wrong to “exempt classes or categories of removable aliens from potential enforcement” and that, “I hereby direct agencies to employ all lawful means to ensure the faithful execution of the immigration laws of the United States against all removable aliens.”

8.) [TS] The government is terrible at being a bank.

A remarkable stat coming from the CRFB: All loans except Parent PLUS now cost the government money.

Some additional color on student loans, specifically:

A decade ago, the student loan program was projected to make $15 billion a year. Those same loans are now projected to cost $20 billion per year.

Over a decade, the cost has gone up $340 billion.

9.) Gallup: Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War

For the first time, more than half of Ukrainians want the war to end as soon as possible:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Immigration Policy: Trump plans military-led mass deportations and aims to end birthright citizenship.

2. Cabinet Controversy: Defense pick Pete Hegseth paid accuser in sexual assault case under NDA.

3. Media Lawsuits: Trump sues multiple media outlets for billions over critical coverage.

4. Middle East Conflict: Israel reportedly destroyed Iranian nuclear facility and significantly damaged Hezbollah's missile capabilities.

5. Security Vetting: Trump team bypassing FBI background checks for some Cabinet nominees.

6. Ukraine Support: Biden authorizes ATACMS use against Russia in Kursk region as Russian economy struggles.

NOT NEWS NEWS

7. Military Spending: China's military budget has quietly grown to nearly match US levels.

8. Food Industry: Analysis reveals sugar actually more prevalent than high-fructose corn syrup in products.

9. Economic Analysis: IMF finds no correlation between COVID stimulus spending and inflation rates.

10. Housing Market: Areas with highest new apartment supply seeing largest rent reductions.

11. Air Quality: Delhi leads world in poor air quality, triple the levels of second-place Dhaka.

12. Social Media Influence: Study shows TikTok algorithm promotes pro-China content to GenZ users.

13. Platform Bias: Study reveals X's algorithm boosted Republican-leaning accounts after Musk's Trump endorsement.

14. Crime Statistics: Comparison of US vs European homicide rates.

15. Regulatory Facts: Analysis debunks Musk's regulatory criticism, showing DHS growth accounts for most increases.

1.) AXIOS: Trump confirms plans to use military for mass deportations

President-elect Trump confirmed plans to declare a national emergency and use the military for mass deportations, targeting 11M undocumented immigrants. Advocates prepare legal challenges as Trump fills his Cabinet with immigration hardliners like Tom Homan and Kristi Noem.

[TS] Support for mass deportation varies on how the question is asked:

If this program gets off the ground, it will be interesting to see how the public reacts.

[RELATED] Trump takes aim at birthright citizenship per NYT: Trump Confirms Plans to Use the Military to Assist in Mass Deportations

[TS] The article expands a bit on the above, but one notable line:

And the team plans to stop issuing citizenship-affirming documents, like passports and Social Security cards, to infants born on domestic soil to undocumented migrant parents in a bid to end birthright citizenship.

That will be quite the change. I have not seen polling on this — OK, did some digging. YouGov polling from June 2023 puts support at 60%:

I actually don’t think this is the wildest idea out there. I think the largest hurdle will be the 14th amendment where it clearly states:

“All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.”

This has also been upheld by SCOTUS. Take the 1898 case: United States v. Wong Kim Ark (1898):

• Ruling: The Court held that children born in the U.S. to foreign parents who are legally residing in the country are U.S. citizens under the 14th Amendment.

Not a lot of wiggle room there. Granted, I don’t know how much the current court cares about precedent.

Why would I say it’s not a wild idea?

I think the easiest way to think about this would be to look at other countries. The US (and Canada!) is actually an outlier in terms of unconditional birthright citizenship. For example:

• Australia: Children born in Australia acquire citizenship only if at least one parent is a citizen or permanent resident at the time of birth. Otherwise, the child can become a citizen after living there for 10 years.

• New Zealand: Similar to Australia, citizenship is granted at birth only if at least one parent is a citizen or resident.

• France: Children born in France to foreign parents are not automatically citizens but can apply for citizenship later (usually at age 18) if they meet residency requirements.

• Germany: A child born in Germany to foreign parents becomes a citizen only if at least one parent:

  • Has lived legally in Germany for at least eight years, and

  • Holds permanent residency at the time of the child’s birth.

• UK: Children born in the UK are not automatically citizens unless at least one parent:

  • Is a British citizen, or

  • Has settled status (e.g., indefinite leave to remain) at the time of the child’s birth.

• Japan: NO birthright citizenship. Foreign-born individuals, including those born in Japan to foreign parents, can apply for Japanese citizenship through naturalization. However, the process is strict, requiring:

  • Continuous residency for at least 5 years.

  • Demonstrated financial stability.

  • Renunciation of other citizenships (Japan does not allow dual citizenship for naturalized citizens).

I think both sides of the argument have valid points. The weakest argument for unconditional birthright citizenship is “because it’s been that way for a long time.” Even arguing “because it’s an amendment” isn’t particularly compelling to me on rational, moral, or ethical grounds. However, it is compelling from a pragmatic standpoint—overturning a constitutional amendment would be extraordinarily difficult, requiring either a two-thirds majority in Congress and ratification by three-fourths of the states or a constitutional convention.

2.) WaPo: Defense pick Hegseth paid accuser but denies sexual assault, attorney says.

Pete Hegseth paid a woman who accused him of sexual assault as part of a nondisclosure agreement, though he maintains their encounter was consensual, according to Hegseth's lawyer and docs obtained by WaPo.

Hegseth agreed to pay an undisclosed amount to the woman because he feared that revelation of the matter "would result in his immediate termination from Fox," according to a statement from his lawyer.

3.) GUARDIAN: Trump sues for billions from media he says is biased against him

President-elect Trump has intensified his attacks on the media with lawsuits against the New York Times, Penguin Random House, CBS, and others, demanding billions in damages over critical coverage. Media groups warn these actions endanger press freedom, fueling a hostile climate that threatens journalists and undermines citizens’ right to information. Press advocates call for protections as fears grow over escalating attacks during Trump’s second term.

4.) Israel War Update

AXIOS: Israel destroyed active nuclear weapons research facility in Iran, officials say

AXIOS reports that Israeli strikes on Iranian military facilities last month destroyed an active nuclear weapons research facility outside of Tehran. According to the report, the strike significantly damaged Iran’s efforts to resume nuclear weapons research.

President Biden asked Netanyahu not to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities… but this facility was not part of Iran's declared nuclear program, so the Iranians couldn’t complain without admitting they violated the NPT.

Most of Hezbollah’s inventory of 150,000 missiles and rockets has been destroyed

Per Elliot Cohen,

Most of Hezbollah’s inventory of 150,000 missiles and rockets has been destroyed—more than 80 percent, according to the Israelis—and the group’s ability to coordinate has been so fractured that instead of the feared volleys of 1,000 projectiles a day, it struggles to launch 50 or 100.

Netanyahu in the Knesset says that the IDF has taken out all of Iran's air defense systems.

"In April, we dismantled 1 of 4 Russian S-300 batteries around Tehran. In October, the remaining 3 S-300 batteries were also destroyed."

5.) CNN: Trump’s team skips FBI background checks for some Cabinet picks

Trump’s transition team is bypassing traditional FBI background checks for at least some Cabinet picks while using private companies to vet potential candidates for admin jobs.

In his first term, Trump ordered clearances to be granted to about 25 people whose applications were initially denied for possible national security concerns.

6.) NYT: Biden Allows Ukraine to Strike Russia With Long-Range U.S. Missiles

With two months left in office, the president for the first time authorized the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region of Russia.

[TS] Article mentions this ONLY extends to the Kursk region. Granted, Ukraine will have ample targets within the ATACMS range to choose from. I have never understood why this wasn’t allowed to begin with.

Potential Targets (via Study of War):

[RELATED] Express (UK): Russian economy on brink as mortgages explode and home buyers face £752k repayments

The maximum level mortgage rate at several banks has now gone over 30%, in a move that is likely to have shattering consequences for Russia's property market.

[TS] This is going to put a lot of pressure on Russia. I imagine Trump and co will extend a lifeline once they get into office. Drop sanctions? Unfreeze Russian assets? I’ll be keeping an eye out.

[RELATED 2] CNN: Russia is locking up butter as inflation crisis reaches new heights

Inflation is being driven by the rapid rise in wages as the Kremlin pours billions into military industries and sends millions of men to fight in Ukraine. In the middle of a war, companies outside the defense sector can’t compete for workers without paying much higher wages. In turn, they charge higher prices. So the spiral continues.

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump says on Truth Social he wants to investigate the Des Moines register which produced the poll (from Ann Selzer) that said he would lose Iowa:

   

2. Trump nominates Brendan Carr, former General Counsel for the FCC, and former FCC Commissioner (he focused on issues like rural broadband, 5G infrastructure, and telecommunications policy).

   1. [TS] Notably, he also wrote the FCC Chapter in Project 2025. I’ve also seen that he has been a massive champion for Elon Musk and his Starlink system (chairman of the F.C.C. controls orbital access by space communications companies in the US.). In the future I may do a brief writeup on SpaceX and Starlink.

3. NewRepublic: Per Greg Sargent: “Senate investigations into Trump's solicitation of $1 billion from Big Oil and Jared Kushner's financial dealings with Saudis will now hit a wall with GOP control, Dems tell me.” [TS] There’s going to be an incredible amount of self dealing.

4. Roll Call: House version of Farm Bill would prevent Trump from unilaterally bailing out trade war-hit US farmers like he did last time:

   

7.) AEI: China’s Real Military Budget Has Quietly Become Almost as Big as Ours

[TS] Full report is an interesting read, but the figures are illuminating:

8.) [TS] How prevalent is high-fructose corn syrup?

MotherJones had a great piece by Tom Philpott on “The Secret History of Why Soda Companies Switched From Sugar to High-Fructose Corn Syrup.” Well worth a read, but I was fascinated to learn that high-fructose corn syrup has never been as popular as regular old sugar:

[TS] Why did companies move to HFCS? Mostly from:

• Ag lobbying Congress to Congress to impose a quota on foreign-produced sugar = drove up the price of sugar

• Corn subsidies which results in farmers planting more corn than needed, which results in corn producers finding other ways to sell the product. This spawned two products (both can come from the same “wet-milling” plant):

  • Ethanol (used for gasoline)

  • High-fructose corn syrup (sugar substitute)

RFK Jr. has said he wants Coca-Cola/Pepsi to use cane sugar instead of HFCS, but that issue would be solved if you just fix the above (2). Likely no appetite for that in R circles, though.

9.) IMF: Counties with greater stimulus spending didn’t see higher inflation.

[TS] I was a bit surprised seeing this graph as you would expect to see a higher correlation between a stimulus and inflation (considering a bigger stimulus would = more cash = more demand = higher prices = higher inflation).

[TS] I think politically, the question becomes: What should the govt. do next time? It is clear that people really do hate inflation, more-so than just about any other factor. It overrides:

• GDP

• Stock market

• Wage growth

• Wealth growth

• Unemployment

Side note on the “Why?”:

First, inflation is immediately noticeable in everyday life—through higher prices on goods, gas, etc. Second, its psychological impact is disorienting. Consider this example: if presented with two scenarios—(A) high inflation with higher wage growth, resulting in greater cumulative wages and more spending power, or (B) low inflation with stagnant wages, resulting in slightly less spending power—most people would likely choose option B.

Why? Inflation feels like an external force eroding their stability, while stagnant wages are tied to factors like promotions or raises, which they feel they can influence. People prefer scenarios where perceived control over their circumstances outweighs external, unpredictable forces acting upon them.

So, what should the government do? Would it be better to:

• Reduce stimulus to keep inflation lower and avoid drastic interest rate hikes, even if it means extending the period of higher inflation, or —

• Opt for a bigger stimulus, accepting a spike in inflation and sharp interest rate hikes to tame inflation over a shorter timeframe.

Unclear what the true answer is, but given the above, I think the shorter timeframe would benefit the incumbent.

10.) Rents fall in high-supplied markets

[TS] In a shock to no one who reads the Trumpdate, the places that build the most apartments see the biggest reductions in rent.

Jay Parsons (who I’ve featured before), has done a great job at tracking rents nationwide. Of the 29 areas where rents fell by more than 3.5%, 26 had new apartment supply above the U.S. average:

11.) IQAir: Delhi (India) has the worse air quality of any city in the world. 3x+ over nearest Dhaka (Bangladesh).

[TS] Does make me question their source, but they do cross check the data with independent communized-operated monitors, and they do have their own sensors.

12.) NCRI: The CCP's Digital Charm Offensive: How TikTok's Search Algorithm and Pro-China Influence Networks Indoctrinate GenZ Users in the United States.

[TS] Really interesting report from the Network Contagion Research Institute. I’ll highlight a few pieces:

• Algorithmic Bias: TikTok systematically amplifies pro-China content and suppresses anti-China narratives, particularly on topics sensitive to the CCP, such as human rights abuses.

• Psychological Manipulation: Heavy TikTok users (those who use 3 or more hours on the platform daily) “showed a 49% increase in positivity towards China’s human rights records relative to non-users. By contrast, use of YouTube and Instagram showed no significant relationship on users’ perception of China’s human rights record.” [TS] That is remarkable.

• Hashtag Hijacking: The CCP uses tactics like hijacking trending hashtags to flood platforms with irrelevant or distracting content, effectively suppressing critical narratives.

[TS] It raises serious questions about whether the U.S. should permit an app from an adversarial nation to shape public opinion, influence cultural perceptions, and potentially manipulate political discourse among its population.

Trump was for the TikTok ban originally, now (with the help from Jeff Sass, who has a $15B stake in TikTok) it seems like he’s against it.

[TS] Speaking of media influence…

13.) A computational analysis of potential algorithmic bias on platform X during the 2024 US election

The study by Timothy Graham (Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane Australia) and Mark Andrejevic, analyzed 56,184 posts sent by a number of accounts between January 1, 2024 and October 25, 2024 and examined view counts, retweet counts, and favorite counts for each

[TS] The gist: X's algorithm was changed in mid-July 2024 to systematically boost Republican-leaning accounts and Elon Musk's own account following his endorsement of Donald Trump.

As an FYI - Musk made his endorsement of Trump on July 13, 2024.

The analysis found "a structural break for Musk's metrics around July 13, 2024" following which his view counts increased by 138.27% and retweets increased by 237.94%, with a similarly large increase for favorites. This was far in excess of other accounts monitored:

The authors conclude that the results "indicate that Musk’s posts received a marked increase in visibility (view counts), amplification (retweet counts), and user interaction (favourite counts) that outpaced the general engagement trends observed across the platform.

The analysis also found a large increase in view counts, retweet counts, and favourite counts, for Republican-leaning accounts, but not for Democrat-leaning ones. Again, the break point for this appears to be July 13, 2024, suggesting a platform-wide algorithmic change:

14.) US vs Europe by homicide rate.

15.) Fact Check on Elon

Elon retweeted this graph with the comment: “There are so many regulators that it’s like a sports game with more refs than players on the field!”

However, Jordan Weissmann tracked down the numbers behind the graph and found that “Almost the entire increase in "regulators" it shows is actually due to the growth of the Department of Homeland Security:”

[TS] Not saying it’s not worth looking into by Elon, but I do think it warrants some context before firing out a random tweet (that is algorithmically boosted) to your millions of followers.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Cabinet & Ethics Drama: Trump nominates vaccine skeptic RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary while Rep. Gaetz resigns amid ethics investigation, with discussion of potential recess appointments.

2. Military Escalation: Russia increases drone attacks on Ukraine by 44% following Trump's election.

3. Diplomatic Meeting: Elon Musk meets with Iran's UN Ambassador to discuss US-Iran tension reduction.

NOT NEWS NEWS

4. Government Savings: GAO has existing recommendations that could save federal government $208 billion.

5. Healthcare Study: Paragon Health Institute report shows telehealth usage spiked during pandemic but raised cost and quality concerns.

6. Housing Market: Austin sees 15% rent decrease after allowing more housing development.

1.) Trump’s nominations continue to baffle even his supporters.

Trump nominates RFK Jr. to the HHS secretary. The US Department of Health and Human Services has 13 divisions:

1. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) - Monitors and prevents disease outbreaks.

2. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) - Regulates food, drugs, and medical devices.

3. National Institutes of Health (NIH) - Conducts medical research.

4. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) - Administers Medicare and Medicaid.

5. Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA) - Provides health care to underserved populations.

6. Indian Health Service (IHS) - Delivers health services to American Indians and Alaska Natives.

7. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) - Supports mental health and substance abuse treatment.

8. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) - Improves health care quality through research.

9. Administration for Children and Families (ACF) - Supports programs for families and child welfare.

10. Administration for Community Living (ACL) - Advocates for seniors and people with disabilities.

11. Office of Inspector General (OIG) - Investigates fraud and abuse within HHS programs.

12. Office for Civil Rights (OCR) - Enforces civil rights in health care settings.

13. Office of Global Affairs (OGA) - Coordinates HHS’s global health efforts.

Pharma stocks took a nosedive after the nomination.

[TS] I don’t think it’s wise to nominate someone who believes vaccines cause autism, thinks chemtrails are real, or claims COVID-19 ‘targets’ certain races (like Jews) while also spouting questionable lines against ‘Big Pharma’ or ‘Big Ag.’ Also, while on the campaign trail, he said he would stop research on drug development and infectious diseases for eight years! C’mon…

There are changes and onerous regulations that could be cut by someone competent. There are some perverse incentives in the pharmaceutical industry (think patent lifecycle mgmt). But I don’t see that happening under someone like RFK Jr. Think if Trump nominated someone like Jim O’Neill, who served as Principal Associate Deputy Secretary at HHS (Nov 2007 to Oct 2008) and advocates for regulatory reform and innovation in healthcare, emphasizing the importance of accelerating the approval process for new medical treatments.

[UPDATE]

Strangely enough, Jared Polis (Colorado’s Gov (D) who only months earlier chided RFK Jr. about measles) just tweeted his support of the nomination.

[NOMINATION RELATED]

Rep. Matt Gaetz just resigned from the House to, reportedly, block a damning report from the Ethics Committee, which was investigating him for sexual misconduct. Unclear whether this move will block the committee from releasing their report. Some Republican Senators are calling for its release before the Senate’s confirmation hearings.

[TS] It would not be a far stretch for Republican Senators to endorse Gaetz given the history of unsavory endorsements they’ve already had to do in the past. Let’s recall in 2017: The Republican National Committee unendorsed a credibly accused pedophile (Roy Moore) for a Senate seat in Alabama and had to re-endorse him after Trump backed him. Remember when Mitch McConnell took back that he should step aside?

[UPDATE 2 - Gaetz]

The attorney for the teenager at the center of the Matt Gaetz allegations calls on the House Ethics Committee to release the report against Gaetz and says there are witnesses.

[UPDATE 3 - Gaetz] ABC:

The woman at the center of the DOJ's probe of Rep. Matt Gaetz testified to the House Ethics Committee that he had sex with her when she was 17 years old, sources say.

[RELATED] Trump’s Potential Plan to Appoint His Cabinet via Recess Appointments

What is a recess appointment?

A recess appointment is when the U.S. President appoints an official to a federal position temporarily while the Senate is in recess and therefore not available to confirm nominees. This allows the appointee to temporarily fill the role without Senate confirmation.

How could he do it? Per Adam Jentleson:

He could adjourn the Senate even if it did not want to adjourn. The House passes an adjournment resolution, sends it to the Senate and the Senate rejects it, thus setting up the “disagreement” that triggers POTUS adjournment authority.

[UPDATE] Senate Leader-elect Sen John Thune: "All options are on the table, including recess appointments. Hopefully it doesn't get to that."

2.) ABC: Russia increases Ukraine drone attacks by 44% since Trump election

Moscow's 145-drone attack on Nov. 10 was the largest to date.

Following Trump’s election, Russia ramped up drone strikes on Ukraine, with daily UAV deployments rising 44%. Analysts expect Russia to intensify attacks ahead of Trump’s inauguration, anticipating potential negotiations. Both Russia and Ukraine continue extensive UAV assaults to maximize strategic advantage.

3.) NYT: Elon Musk Met With Iran’s U.N. Ambassador, Iranian Officials Say

The tech billionaire, a top adviser to President-elect Donald J. Trump, was reported to have discussed ways to defuse tensions between Iran and the United States.

"One Iranian Foreign Ministry official said that Ambassador Iravani told Mr. Musk during the meeting that he should obtain sanctions exemptions from the Treasury and bring some of his businesses to Tehran"

QUICK BITES:

1. Some other nominations from Trump:

   1. Todd Blanche, the lead defense attorney in several of his criminal cases, will serve as Deputy Attorney General.

   2. John Sauer, who helped Trump win near total presidential immunity from the Supreme Court, as his pick for Solicitor General.

   3. Doug Burgum for Interior secretary, a position that will give the North Dakota governor significant influence over plans to boost domestic energy production. [TS] Hey, a normal pick!

2. [TS] There has been a back and forth between people who say there was an Arab switch to Trump in ’24 and those who say there was not. What does the data say?

   1. Per StatisticUrban: In 2020 the turnout for Dearborn Michigan was 44,997. In 2024, 41,893. There was no massive decline in voter turnout. It was about ~7% lower, but the Dem vote share declined by >50%! [REALITY] A lot of people did switch to Trump in ’24.

3. Jack Smith has now moved to halt his Florida case against Trump, telling the 11th circuit to hold his appeal of Judge Cannon's dismissal in abeyance.

4. Clips resurfacing from ’22 from Russian State TV host Vladimir Solovyov who described Tulsi as their "girlfriend" and agreed that she is Putin's agent.

5. AXIOS: Per Stephen Neukam - Joe Manchin is open to confirming Democratic judges who get no GOP support. He previously pledged to only vote for nominees who can get at least one Republican vote.

   1. "We're in different times right now"

6. Trump transition team had a meeting yesterday to discuss sexual assault allegations against Sec of Defense nominee Pete Hegseth, who denies it

   1. Of note: The alleged assault took place in 2017, which also happened to be the year Hegseth had a child with his mistress - a married mom of three - while he was still married to his 2nd wife (whom he'd cheated on his first wife with).

4.) The existing US Government Accountability Office (GAO) already has recommendations to save the federal government $208 billion.

The National Review ran a column in Sep 2024 showing that the US government could save $208 billion by implementing the recommendations the GAO has already made:

[RELATED] The federal budget is a two sided coin.

[TS] Yes, we should look at spending, but I think it is also important (maybe equally!) that we should look at the revenue side. A balanced approach can help us avoid harmful cuts while also increasing funds from fair, well-structured revenue sources, like updating outdated tax policies.

I’m still rooting for Elon’s “DOGE,” but I imagine almost no spotlight will be on revenue. He’ll have fun poking fun at silly spending examples that are either misrepresented, a drop in the bucket, truly ridiculous, or some combination of the three — but will they actually move the needle or make tough choices regarding the budget deficit? Time will tell…

[UPDATE]

[TS] lol. Not looking good already. Elon released this snap saying “Here’s what the U.S. Government wasted $900 Billion of your tax dollars on in 2023. The Department of Government Efficiency (@DOGE) will fix this…”

A fitting snapshot of the project’s lack of seriousness to include $659B in federal interest payments as one line item and $8k for a lobster tank as another line item and label both of them waste.

Again - still rooting! Still optimistic. But now I’m thinking it’s going to amount to a report nobody will read (and some harassment to random scientists at NIH). I expect to see a deluge of right-wing personalities sharing deliberately ill-described studies.

[UPDATE] [TS] Found one already - unfortunately from a Senator. Rand Paul:

[TS] Sounds ridiculous! Did he link the study? Of course not. Is this a fair representation of the study? You already know the answer. This was an animal study on the effect of anabolic steroids on aggression. Is it a waste of money? Maybe! But we should demand some intellectual honesty, especially from our Senators.

5.) Paragon Health Institute releases paper evaluating Telehealth

PURPOSE

Examine the cost, quality, and access impacts of telehealth, especially as Congress debates extending pandemic-era flexibilities.

Focus: Review telehealth’s usage and effects pre-, during, and post-pandemic to inform policy.

FINDINGS

Pandemic Surge: Telehealth use spiked early in the pandemic, partially replacing in-person visits but declined as in-person care rebounded.

• Mental Health Dominance: Telehealth remains highest in mental/behavioral health, with claims doubling from 2019-2023.

• Urban Use: Contrary to expectations, telehealth was more utilized in urban areas than rural, with limited cross-state usage.

• Cost Questions: Telehealth likely increased overall healthcare costs by supplementing, not replacing, in-person visits.

• Quality Concerns: Generally effective for follow-ups but raised issues like antibiotic overprescription and reduced physical exam capabilities.

• Fraud Risks: Telehealth saw increased fraud during the pandemic, but rates are comparable to in-person care.

POLICY SUGGESTIONS

Research: Extend flexibilities temporarily while studying telehealth’s cost-effectiveness and quality.

• Mental Health: Focus on refining mental health telehealth policies to address potential overutilization.

• Guardrails: Implement controls to prevent fraud and waste before making broader telehealth flexibilities permanent.

• Private Sector Insights: Leverage Medicare Advantage and private insurer data to guide policy.

6.) What happens if you let developers build housing?

[TS] A bit of a hobby horse of mine, as I’ve covered it multiple times in the past. Regardless, always good to look at the data! Here is Austin, TX - where rent has dropped 15% from its peak (per Nick Gerli)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. CPI Inflation: Inflation rises 2.6% year-on-year; core CPI steady at 3.3% with grocery prices showing a rare decline.

2. Russia Escalates: Russia resumes missile strikes on Kyiv, breaking a two-month pause as winter nears.

3. Trump’s Nominations: Trump considers controversial nominees like Tulsi Gabbard (DNI) and Matt Gaetz (AG), sparking Senate concerns.

NOT NEWS NEWS

4. US Literacy Decline: Alarming stats from the National Literacy Institute spur public debate on the Department of Education’s efficacy.

5. Consumer Sentiment: GOP voter confidence rises post-election, reflecting partisan swings in economic outlook.

6. Mom Arrested: Brittany Patterson jailed after allowing her son to walk alone, highlighting fears over child safety.

7. Gambling Concerns: Mobile gambling’s rise fuels studies on its societal impact, as gaming borrows gambling’s addictive features.

8. Government Research Spending: Examples of unusual research funding, like Gila monster venom, emphasize innovation’s unexpected benefits.

9. Massachusetts Shelter Costs: State commission suggests reducing shelter costs; critics want clearer plans for non-resident shelter use.

1.) CPI Inflation rose to 2.6% year-on-year, increasing 0.2% month-on-month

Core CPI inflation held steady at 3.3% year-on-year, growing 0.3% month-on-month. Graph by Joey Politano:

[RELATED] Grocery prices are down 0.1%

This is the first decline since the pandemic began:

[RELATED 2] Argentina’s President, Javier Milei celebrates inflation in Argentina falling to 2.7% - a three year low:

2.) NYT: Russia Launches Missiles Against Ukraine’s Capital

The attack ended a two-month pause in missile strikes on Kyiv, which had only been hit by Russian drones during that period.

[TS] This is a significant escalation as winter approaches and America’s support comes into question.

3.) Trump’s nominations are getting crazier.

• Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence

  • [TS] This was readout by Roger Stone, of all people…

  • Gabbard condemned the Soleimani killing as an "unconstitutional" act of war by then President Trump.

  • Met with Bashar al-Assad on a “fact-finding mission” and expressed skepticism about claims that Assad used chemical weapons against Syrian civilians, suggesting that some attacks may have been staged by opposition forces to draw the U.S. deeper into the conflict.

  • Gabbard argued Russia was justified in invading Ukraine because Ukraine wanted to join NATO to protect itself from a Russian invasion.

    • Three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Putin’s soldiers were razing cities, raping and executing Ukrainians, Gabbard called on Zelensky to “embrace the spirit of aloha.”

• Rep Matt Gaetz (R-FL) for US Attorney General

[TS] Honestly, if anyone predicted Gabbard, Gaetz and and Hegseth for any of these positions months ago, they would have been written them off as suffering from Trump derangement syndrome. And yet…

Luckily, I have a hard time believing they’ll get through the Senate. These strike me as loyalty tests more than anything. The absurdity is the point.

Ronald Brownstein:

Trump has shown he understands a cardinal rule of strong man dominance: constantly force your allies to defend the indefensible & to make ever greater concessions they once would have considered beyond the pale. Each surrender paves the way for the next. Gaetz just an opening bid

[UPDATE] Ed Whelan: “Hope it's wrong, but I'm hearing through the grapevine about this bonkers plan: Trump would adjourn both Houses of Congress under Article II, section 3, and then recess-appoint his Cabinet.”

[UPDATE 2] Senators are being asked Gaetz’ nomination (on camera).

TAPPER: Are you gonna vote for Matt Gaetz?

SEN. MARKWAYNE MULLIN: I completely trust President Trump's decision making on this one

[TS] Worth noting: Mullin has previously accused Gaetz of sleeping with an underaged girl, showing off videos of girls he slept with on the House floor, and bragging about taking ED meds to "go all night.” I think this gives us a taste for how easily Senate R’s will fold to even a ridiculous nomination like Gaetz.

Example #2: Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) says “He's been on the receiving end of the DOJ's weaponization" -- Sen. Hagerty indicates he will support Matt Gaetz as AG.

Example #3: Sen. Graham (R-SC): “He won the election, he deserves a chance to pick his cabinet. I am predisposed to allow him to do that. I think Matt Gaetz is very bright. I think he's qualified.”

Sen. Susan Collins “was shocked that he has been nominated.” [TS] I’m sure. How does that register on the Collins scale:

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump declines to nominate a new House Speaker and endorses Mike Johnson, who will likely go unopposed.

2. Senate Leadership vote (over McConnell): On the second ballot - John Thune (R-SD) and John Cornyn (R-TX) advance. Rick Scott (R-FL) was lowest vote getter. Vote tally was 23-15-13 (Thune Cornyn Scott). Of note: Sen Thune specifically called for cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid - despite Trump's campaign pledges to the contrary. [TS] This is surprising given the MAGA rush to promote Scott. Ultimately, it’s Trump’s call. If he wants to put his finger on the scale, his candidate will win.

   1. This will also be true in FL. DeSantis can nominate a new senator in FL given Rubio’s new role. MAGA is saying “Make it Lara Trump.” Trump could weigh in here, but I imagine he won’t. His lack of action will allow DeSantis to appoint someone he deems fit (vs just a “Trump” name).

   2. [UPDATE] Senate leadership team is official:

      1. Leader: John Thune

      2. Whip: John Barrasso

      3. Conference Chair: Tom Cotton

      4. Policy Cmte Chair: Shelly Moore Capito

      5. Conference Vice Chair: James Lankford

      6. NRSC Chair: Tim Scott

3. [TS] What are the chances that Musk will look into spending at agencies that directly support/subsidize his businesses (Tesla/SpaceX)? Recall NYTs excellent piece on the conflict of interest here:

   

   Of note: In 2012 Mitt Romney criticized Obama for wasting money on loans to "loser" companies like Solyndra and Tesla. [TS] If the government isn't making mistakes it's not taking enough risks.

4. [RELATED - ELON] Elon Musk is expected to join Trump at the House Republican conference meeting this morning. [TS] Seems odd, no?

   1. [UPDATE] Per Lauren Windsor: “A senator told me that the rumor on the Hill is that Elon Musk is threatening to fund a primary challenge to any House Republican who doesn’t fall in line with Trump’s agenda.”

   2. [TS] Some perspective, per Joe Walsh: Imagine this scenario: What if during the 2020 campaign, Mark Zuckerberg had come out and publicly endorsed Biden, used his social media platforms to push pro-Biden information and spread disinformation about Trump, then spent millions of his own money on pro-Biden PACS, and then campaigned his butt off for Biden. And then when Biden won, Zuckerberg became Biden’s closest advisor, basically setting up camp at the White House. How would right-wing media react?
      

5. Nate Silver’s estimate on the popular vote drops Trump to 49.8%. That means George W. Bush retains his title as the only Republican to win a majority of the vote in a 21st century presidential election. [TS] Not a ringing endorsement of the Electoral College…

6. Trump “jokes” about running again in 2028: “I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say he’s so good we've got to figure something else out.”

   1. Per Julia Ioffe: “I suspect it won’t take long for conservative legal scholars invent some kind of legal theory to say that the Constitution doesn’t prohibit a third Trump term because the first two weren’t consecutive. And I suspect it won’t take long for SCOTUS to agree.”

7. Trump stands to benefit from a dramatic drop in oil prices next year—something he’ll have absolutely no control over. [TS] I’m sure he won’t take the credit though…

   

8. CNN: FBI arrests alleged leaker of US intelligence documents related to Israel’s attack plans against Iran.

   1. The Justice Department charged ex-CIA officer Asif W. Rahman with leaking top-secret US intelligence about Israel’s potential retaliation against Iran. Arrested in Cambodia, he faces trial in Virginia. The documents, shared on Telegram, revealed sensitive info about Israel’s munitions and hinted at its nuclear capabilities.

9. Iranintl: Iran sentences six more protesters to death after controversial trial.

   1. Iran sentenced six individuals to death over a Basij member’s killing in the 2022 protests. The case, lacking clear evidence, has raised human rights concerns as reports of torture and unfair trials emerge.

      

10. The Biden administration is laying out plans to triple America’s nuclear capacity by 2050, adding an additional 200 gigawatts. [TS] I welcome it, but that’s too slow.

4.) National Literacy Institute’s latest stats (’22-’23) on US literacy are not encouraging.

[TS] I’ll let their tables speak for themselves, but this data is quite grim:

There are more, but I think you get the idea. I think stats like these probably sway the public sentiment — and Trump’s desires — to abolish the Dept. of Education. Most people will see something like this and ask themselves: “If these are the results, why would we keep them?” It’s not a bad question. Dana Goldstein in the NYT’s has a good article on the Dept of Education.

That said, when Trump says “our education is terrible,” or “The US is absolutely the bottom” in student performance, he’s wrong. If you look worldwide, the US isn’t close to the bottom (Asian-American and white American K-12 students both rank in the top 10 in PISA performance worldwide).

5.) [TS] As Predicted, Consumer sentiment among Republicans has soared since Election Day.

[TS] Democrats also exhibit the same swings as shown in 2021. This is not a healthy way to view the performance of the economy. But, it does give us insight into Trumps messaging for 2025 — and he’ll have a LOT of good things to say about the economy (Biden’s economy): Low unemployment, inflation tackled etc.

6.) REASON: Mom Jailed for Letting 10-Year-Old Walk Alone to Town

On October 30, 2024, Brittany Patterson was arrested in front of her children after her 11-year-old son, Soren, walked alone to a nearby town. A concerned woman reported him, leading police to pick him up and later arrest Patterson. Authorities demanded a “safety plan” for supervision, which she refused to sign, citing her preference for a “Free-Range” parenting approach.

[TS] This story is insane and a troubling reflection of our society. We’ve become irrationally fearful, despite clear data showing we’re safer now than ever before. This is the result of 30+ years of news sensationalizing crime and stoking fears of child abductions.

Luckily, I haven’t seen any serious person defending the actions of the town against Patterson.

7.) Gambling still isn’t great for society.

[TS] The explosion of mobile gambling is offering new studies on the harms of pervasive gambling. I’ve covered this in previous Trumpdates (#10 The Financial Consequences of Legalized Sports Gambling) - but new data out of Brazil shows this isn’t isolated in the US.

Per Bloomberg: Gamblers Pay 400% Loan Rates to Fund Betting Frenzy in Brazil

20% of a recent social assistance program have been spent on gambling, with some bettors taking out credit at rates exceeding 400%

[TS] Video games, especially mobile ones, have borrowed heavily from gambling by adding gamified elements.

It’ll be interesting to see which side of the isle politicians land on here. I’m guessing D’s will have a clear majority against (and will want further regulation), while I can see R’s having a divide. There’s the old conservatives who want to “restore virtue” and the new conservatives (think Barstool conservatives) who enjoy it.

8.) [TS] There are some examples floating around about government waste…

A popular thread is circulating with a number of crazy sounding things the government spent money on. For example:

• In 2020, the U.S. government spent $4.5 million to spray alcoholic rats with bobcat urine.

• In 2019, the U.S. government spent half a million dollars to see if quails were more sexually active on cocaine.

• etc.

On the surface, these sound rather insane (and some on the list might be insane). But, the author takes no time to investigate further to see why they were funded, or what they were hoping to research.

Let’s take the first example: Alcoholic rats and bobcat piss? What?!?! How could this not be ridiculous and wasteful? But this was actually a real study! Of course, it wasn’t titled “alcoholic rats and bobcat piss” (even though that would be a pretty rad name). It was called:

The predator odor avoidance model of post-traumatic stress disorder in rats

So, what were they trying to study, and why? Is this just wasteful government spending and woke scientists gone amuck? Actually, if you read the paper, the researchers were developing and validating a neurobiological model of PTSD, which could be used both to screen for risk and to develop pharmacological treatments for the condition.

Why? Take it from Yoni Applebaum:

Research at NIH is not a significant driver of government spending, but medical care is. Military patients diagnosed with PTSD cost an average of $25,684 each year to treat, and the disorder imposes an estimated economic burden of $232 billion.

There are few FDA-approved drugs for the treatment of PTSD. If we could develop more, it'd boost economic growth while driving down government spending on health care. But we need a validated animal-model to facilitate that.

There really is wasteful spending in government. Perhaps this research qualifies. But it's also possible that this was $4.5 million well spent, which will ultimately help contain costs—the sort of thing that a commission trying to slash government spending might applaud.

Here’s the other thing I want to draw attention to: The government, in my opinion, should be the ones funding a wide range of seemingly random research. Private industry may not invest in research without clear, immediate profits. This broad spectrum of funding often pays off because innovation often arises from unexpected findings.

Take, for example, the primary tool in molecular biology: polymerase chain reaction (PCR). This technique became broadly accessible thanks to the discovery of a heat-resistant polymerase in Yellowstone’s hot springs.

How about studying Gila monster venom? That couldn’t possibly pay dividends, could it? Or, it could lead to two researchers (Drs. John Eng and Jean Pierre Raufman) discovering a hormone called exendin-4 in the venom. This hormone paved the way for GLP-1 receptor agonists, a groundbreaking class of diabetes drugs (probably the most important new class of drugs of our generation).

9.) Boston Herald: State report suggests Mass. cut shelter system costs but some are left wanting more specifics

A Massachusetts commission on emergency shelters proposed cost-cutting reforms to address a $1 billion budget, including reducing hotel reliance. The draft report urges the Healey administration to focus on efficiency and make family homelessness rare and brief. Critics argue it lacks specifics on controlling shelter use by out-of-state residents. The report attributes rising demand to federal immigration policy, a housing shortage, and post-COVID changes, while others call for ongoing oversight.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:

NEWS NEWS

1. Trump Transition Team Appointments - Trump names key positions including Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff), Mike Waltz (National Security), Lee Zeldin (EPA), Stephen Miller (Deputy Chief), and several other high-profile appointments to potential future administration.

2. Military Leadership Review Plan - Trump team drafts executive order to create "warrior board" that would evaluate and potentially remove three- and four-star military officers.

NOT NEWS NEWS

3. Election Analysis Breakdown - Final vote tally shows narrow Trump victory (49.9% vs 48.5%), with increased support among minority voters but decreased white voter support, challenging claims of a "landslide" victory.

1.) Trump begins appointing staff for his future admin.

Knowns:

• CHEIF OF STAFF: Susie Wiles

  • A seasoned political consultant, Wiles has been a pivotal figure in Trump’s campaigns, notably managing his 2016 and 2024 presidential bids. She has not previously held a formal position in the Trump administration.

• WH NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: Rep Mike Waltz (R-FL)

  • A former Green Beret and current U.S. Representative, Waltz has been a vocal supporter of Trump’s foreign policy but has not served in his prior administration.

• EPA ADMINISTRATOR: Lee Zeldin

  • A former U.S. Representative from New York, Zeldin has been an ally of Trump but did not hold a position in his previous administration.

• WH DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR POLICY: Stephen Miller

  • Miller served as a senior policy adviser in Trump’s first term, known for his hardline stance on immigration.

• BORDER CZAR: Tom Homan

  • Former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under Trump, Homan is set to oversee border security initiatives

• UN AMBASSADOR: Rep Elise Stefanik (R-NY)

  • Stefanik has been a staunch supporter of Trump but has not previously served in his administration.

• SECRETARY OF STATE: Sen Marco Rubio (R-FL)

  • [TS] Does this mean DeSantis runs? He can’t run for Gov again (his term concludes Jan 2027)

• DHS SECRETARY: Gov Kristi Noem (R-SD)

  • [TS] I guess those weird commercials she did for that TX dental practice worked.

• SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Pete Hegseth

  • [TS] Ok, this one is…strange. This guys is/was a Fox News TV host and an Army National Guard officer. He really has no business being in this role.

    • He also spoke on air at Fox which influenced Trump’s intervention of Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher (who’s own platoon members testified against him, called him “evil” and expressed concerns about his conduct).

• AMBASSADOR TO ISRAEL: Mike Huckabee (former Arkansas Gov)

  • Per Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: “Huckabee is a huge victory for the settlers and their plan to annex the West Bank. He once laid a ceremonial brick for a house in Efrat and said he hopes to buy a “holiday home” there one day. Then said, “Build Israel Great Again.”’

    • [UPDATE] [TS] Someone dug up a 2017 video presser from Huckabee in Israel: "There is no such thing as the West Bank - it's Judea and Samaria. There is no such thing as settlements - they're communities, they're neighborhoods, they're cities. There is no such thing as an occupation."

    • [UPDATE 2] CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski during Huckabee’s 2015 run for president, Huckabee suggested that if a Palestinian state were to be created, it should be in neighboring countries like Egypt, Syria, or Jordan, rather than within Israel’s borders.

      “Basically, there really is no such thing as — I need to be careful about saying this, because people will really get upset — there's really no such thing as a Palestinian," Huckabee said at a 2008 campaign stop in Massachusetts while speaking to two Orthodox Jewish men. "There's not."

• CIA DIRECTOR: John Ratcliffe

  • Former House Rep (R-TX) 2015-2020, was appointed to serve as Director of National Intelligence by Trump in May 2020 (until Biden took over in Jan ’21).

    • [TS] He pledged to stay apolitical, but obviously did not.

  • [TS] Thank god it’s not Kash Patel. That being said, here is the accompanying statement from Trump on this appointment:

    

    [TS] Very first thing was praising him for going after his political opponents. Essentially signaling what he’s looking for.

• WHITE HOUSE COUNSEL: William McGinely

  • He served as General Counsel to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and was counsel to the Convention Rules Committee during the 2012 Republican National Convention. From January 2017 to July 2019, McGinley served as the White House Cabinet Secretary under President Donald Trump.

[TS] Some thoughts: Trump seems to be selecting quite a few house members. Rs are currently on pace to win 220-221 House seats, which only gives them a slim majority.
House R’s are already talking to Trump’s transition team to ease up, per CNN. If he continues plucking existing members, this could compromise their majority (unlucky given the safety of the districts). So, why do it?

Here’s one argument for Trump shrinking the GOP’s already slim House majority:

• Limits Mike Johnson’s power

• Reduces pressure on Trump’s administration to pass significant legislation, shifting focus to executive orders

• Solidifies Trump’s role as the uncontested leader of his party

2.) WSJ: Trump Draft Executive Order Would Create Board to Purge Generals

The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership.

[TS] Needless to say, this is not good. Such a panel could upend the traditional military review process and raises concerns about politicization of the military.

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump says “the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency (‘DOGE’).”

   

   [TS] Trump, Elon et al. love to point to government waste/spending. But most of the spending is tied up in entitlements ($1.15T Social Security, $0.85T Medicare, $0.63T Medicaid), Defense ($0.83T), Interest on Debt ($0.66T). If you think you can come in and cut “Two trillion” without touching these programs — I don’t believe you. For reference from USA Facts (a great site):

   

   [TS] Also note: This “Department” isn’t actually sanctioned by Congress. It’s an outside entity. Who is funding it? What are the conflicts of interest? What’s the transparency? This has bad news written all over it.

   1. Just as an FYI: I actually am rooting for real waste to be found and for real efficiencies to be gained. I just don’t know if this is the right vehicle for that job. I’ve continued to highlight what a major debt problem we have (and will only get worse with time). We need to address it now, which might include unpopular choices. Will Trump make those unpopular choices? Doubtful. My prediction will be: He will kick the can down the road so he doesn’t have to take any criticism for making hard decisions — which will just make the decisions/cuts even MORE difficult in the future, which will incentivize a future leader NOT to do them because they will be, almost by definition, unpopular. It’s not going to be easy… I fear it will only get done when it’s an emergency.

      I think they should have centered their goals around two things:

      1. ONE: Defense Spending / Contracting

      2. TWO: Healthcare

      I think there are real gains to be made in both those areas that could save time and money. Marc Goldwein has written about aggressive cutting within healthcare. He said you could get to $2T (over 10 years), by doing the following:

      1. Prevent Medicare Advantage “upcoding.”

      2. Equalize payments to hospitals and doctor’s offices for similar services.

      3. Prevent states and hospitals from colluding to inflate their federal Medicaid match.

      4. End Medicare Advantage quality bonuses that are awarded to all plans, regardless of quality.

      5. Reduce excess reimbursements for post-acute care in Medicare.

      6. Restrict Medigap wrap-around plans that charge seniors high premiums and encourage unnecessary care.

      7. End reimbursements for bad debts.

      8. Build on recent drug pricing reforms.

      9. Adjust LIS copays by reducing them for generic drugs and increasing them for name-brand drugs.

      10. Fund cost-sharing reductions directly, instead of through “silver loading.”

   [TS] Also, why appoint two people to lead? “Look, it doesn’t take a genius to know that every organization thrives when it has two leaders. Go ahead, name a country that doesn’t have two presidents. A boat that sets sail without two captains. Where would Catholicism be without the popes?”

3.) [TS] Trump’s win was not a “landslide” or a “mandate.”

[TS] There is no question that Trump won, and no question that it was decisive. But the language around the win like “landslide” and “a mandate” are simply not warranted. Per Nate Silver, Trump’s popular vote total likely to come in around

• 77.9m votes (49.9%)

• Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)

• other 2.6m votes (1.6%).

• Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020).

A 1.5% vote differential is not a landslide. Hillary won the popular vote by about as much in 2016. Biden won 2020 by over 4%.

Granted, I do find it surprising that Trump beat Harris in the popular vote at all. Clearly, there’s some soul-searching the Democrats need to do. There’s no question that a few rotten planks exist within the party. For one, Democrats need to completely abandon identity politics. Enough with ‘Latinx’ and other forms of language policing that don’t resonate with voters. If you think this is a winning issue, consider this:

Trump gained ground with every group except for whites:

This is not how to build a broad tent.

guess who’s back

na-na-na-na-na

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NEWS NEWS

1. Project 2025 Exposed: Hidden-camera video reveals secret preparations for potential Trump second term.

2. Ukraine's Military Advance: Ukraine establishes military office in occupied Kursk region, claims control of 82 settlements.

3. Medicare Drug Prices: Agreements reached to lower prices for 10 highest-cost drugs.

NOT NEWS NEWS

4. Millennial Wealth Surge: Homeownership and investments boost Millennials' finances, surpassing previous generations.

5. Christian Nationalism Awareness: Survey shows varying levels of familiarity with Christian Nationalism across political spectrum.

6. US Chip Production: US Chips Act set to increase America's share of global semiconductor production.

7. Luxury Apartments Impact: Building high-end apartments puts downward pressure on rents across all price points.

8. Congressional Polarization: Republicans in Congress have shifted further right than Democrats have moved left since 1972.

1.) CNN: Hidden-camera video shows Project 2025 co-author discussing his secret work preparing for a second Trump term

• Vought leads the Center for Renewing America and claims to be working closely with Trump, despite Trump's public disavowal of Project 2025.

• He said his team is secretly drafting hundreds of executive orders, regulations, and memos for a potential Trump administration, calling it creating "shadow" agencies.

• He criticized the GOP for focusing too much on "religious liberty" instead of "Christian nation-ism."

• Vought argued that the president has the ability to use the military to maintain law and order, potentially bypassing the Posse Comitatus Act.

[TS] There is a lot of stuff here. The videos are fairly damning. Say’s Trump is “very supportive” of their work. He could be embellishing how much Trump trusts him, or outright lying to get more funding (possible!). Doesn’t seem likely, given the recent stories about Trump’s ties to Project 2025.

2.) REUTERS: Ukraine opens military office in occupied Kursk region, says it is still advancing

• Ukraine says forces control 82 settlements, still advancing

• Ukraine sets up military office inside Russian border

• Russia to beef up border defenses, says attacks continue

• Russia inches closer to Pokrovsk logistics hub in east

3.) Medicare has reached agreements to lower the price for 10 of the highest-cost drugs.

[TS] Genuinely good stuff here. Voting matters.

QUICK BITES:

1. Trump says some strange things at a rally.

   1. “When we gave her the Presidential Medal of Freedom… It’s the equivalent of the Congressional Medal of Honor— it’s actually much better because everyone who gets the Congressional Medal, they’re soldiers. They’re either in very bad shape because they’ve been hit so many times by bullets or they’re dead. She gets it and she’s a healthy beautiful woman.”

   2. “Virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gotten to migrants,” said Trump, “You know that? Most of the job creation has gone to migrants. In fact, I’ve heard that substantially more than — uh, beyond, actually beyond the number of 100%,  it’s a much higher number than that, but the government hasn’t caught up with that yet, but virtually right now as of the time they did this virtually 100% of the net job creation in the last year has gone to migrants.”

   3. Trump calls Minnesota "a very failed state” (Minnesota finished 6th in CNBC’s 2024 America’s Top States for Business study.)

   4. "I'm very angry at her ... I think I'm entitled to personal attacks. I don't have a lot of respect for her. I don't have a lot of respect for her intelligence … She certainly attacks me, personally. She actually called me weird. 'He’s weird'. It was just a sound bite. And she called JD and I weird."

   5. You're all going to be thrown into a communist system. You will be thrown into a system where everybody gets health care.

   6. “San Francisco, you know, is, was a great city 15 years ago.”

      1. (15 years ago, the Mayor was Gavin Newsom, and the DA was Kamala Harris)

   7. “And as you know, the Supreme Court ruled recently on immunity, and I'm immune from all of this stuff that they charged me with”

      1. [TS] Notable that he’s not saying he’s innocent, but that he’s immune.

   8. [TS] Not something he said, but Fox removed their ticker showing the Dow hitting 40,000 after Trump tries to claim the stock market is going to “crash.” Might have been a coincidence.

2. Trump talks a lot about Biden buying Venezuelan oil, but Trump’s monthly petroleum imports from Venezuela were 6x higher than Biden’s.

3. Kamala calls for the construction of 3 million housing units as part of her economic speech today. Harris will offer tax incentives for builders that construct properties for first-time home buyers.

   1. [TS] I think building homes is great - but why add the overhead of the tax administration?

4. TX’s Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) Sues Biden Administration Over Rule Forcing Private Businesses and States to Implement "Transgender” Policies.

   1. For the second day in a row, Texas has chosen to file a new lawsuit seeking nationwide relief against a federal policy in Amarillo—where it has a 100% chance of being assigned to Judge Kacsmaryk.

5. POLITICO: Trump campaign brings Corey Lewandowski back on board

   1. Corey Lewandowski said under oath in congressional testimony “I have no obligation to be honest with the media.”

6. JD Vance in 2021, while discussing earlier waves of immigration to the US:

   1. "You had this massive wave of Italian, Irish and German immigration and that had its problems, its consequences. You had higher crime rates, you had these ethnic enclaves, you had inter-ethnic conflict in the country where you really hadn't had that before."

      1. [TS] Old school nativism. Perhaps he’s making the argument that immigration works out in the end?

4.) WSJ: The Dramatic Turnaround in Millennials’ Finances

Soaring home prices and smart investments have helped boost a generation once considered perpetually behind

Millennials who were able to buy homes by are now a lot richer. They even appear to be ahead of Gen X and Boomers at this point in life.

But those left out feel even further behind.

[RELATED]

Per Ernie Tedeschi:

It's actually been evident in the data for a while now that in inflation-adjusted terms, Millennial wealth and home equity has been in line with or better than prior generations at the same age.

5.) How many people have heard of Christian Nationalism?

Ryan Burge from Eastern Illinois University pulled data together from PRRI/Brookings from 2022.

• Among "extremely liberal" folks, only 8% had never heard of Christian Nationalism.

• Among conservatives, 40%+ had no awareness of Christian Nationalism.

[TS] Honestly, that is way more than I would have guessed. Good to get a reality check on genpop.

6.) US Chips Act is reshaping global semiconductor landscape.

• America looks set to produce around one-third of global supply for leading-edge chips by 2032

• US rise will come at expense of South Korea, which could become minor player for top-notch chips

7.) Building luxury apartments puts downward pressure on rents at all price points.

[TS] Sounds counter intuitive, but it’s true. Jay Parsons (housing and rental economist) has been tracking the data. His summary:

When you build "luxury" new apartments in big numbers, the influx of supply puts downward pressure on rents at all price points -- even in the lowest-priced Class C rentals. Here's evidence of that happening right now:

There are 21 U.S. markets where Class C rents are falling at least 4% YoY. What is the common denominator? You guessed it: Supply. Of those, all but one have supply expansion rates ABOVE the U.S. average.

There's no demand issue in any of these 21 markets. They're all among the absorption leaders nationally -- places like Austin, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Raleigh/Durham, Atlanta, Tampa, Dallas, Charlotte, Orlando, etc. But they all have a lot of new supply.

Simply put: Supply is doing what it's supposed to do when we build A LOT of apartments. It's a process academics call "filtering." New pricey apartments are pulling up higher-income renters out of moderately priced Class B units, which in turn cut rents to lure Class C renters, and on down the line it goes.

Less anyone still in doubt, here's another factoid: Where are Class C rents growing most? You guessed it (I hope!) -- in markets with little new supply. Class C rent growth topped 4% in 22 of the nation's 150 largest metro areas, and nearly all of them have limited new apartment supply.

Most new construction tends to be Class A "luxury" because that's what pencils out due to high cost of everything from land to labor to materials to impact fees to insurance to taxes, etc.

So critics will say: "We don't need more luxury apartments!"

Yes, you do. Because when you build "luxury" apartments at scale, you will put downward pressure on rents at all price points.

8.) PEW: Republicans in Congress have moved farther to the right since 1972 than Democratic lawmakers have moved to the left.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NEWS NEWS

1. Thai PM Dismissed: Court removes Srettha Thavisin for constitutional violation.

2. Sudan Famine Crisis: US-led talks for cease-fire as famine worsens; only one side attends.

3. Nord Stream Sabotage: Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian suspect in pipeline attacks.

4. US Inflation Cools: Annual inflation rate drops below 3% for the first time since 2021.

5. Iranian Hacking Threat: Google reports Iranian-linked group targeting US officials' emails.

NOT NEWS NEWS

6. Disney Lawsuit Controversy: Company cites streaming service terms to avoid wrongful death suit.

7. UCLA Jewish Student Access: Judge orders equal campus access for Jewish students amid protests.

8. JD Vance Podcast Stirs Debate: 2020 interview comments on family raise eyebrows.

9. MDMA Therapy Setback: FDA declines approval for MDMA-based PTSD treatment.

10. MDMA Studies Retracted: Three studies on MDMA therapy retracted due to protocol violations.

1.) BBC: Thai court dismisses PM for violating constitution

Thai PM Srettha Thavisin dismissed by court for cabinet ethics violation. He's the 3rd PM removed in 16 years. Interim leader to take over until new PM elected. Critics see political motive. Move Forward party recently dissolved by same court. Thailand's political turmoil continues amid economic struggles.

[TS] He was dismissed after less than a year.

2.) NYT: As Famine Deepens in Sudan, U.S. Leads New Push for Cease-Fire

The American-backed talks in Switzerland, which started on Wednesday, aim to halt a catastrophic civil war. But only one side has turned up.

• Famine was officially declared in Sudan’s western Darfur region, and other areas are expected to follow.

  • As many as 2.5M Sudanese could die from hunger by the end of September.

• Sudan’s military, one of the war’s two main belligerents, has said it will not attend the negotiations in Switzerland, stymying hopes of a quick cease-fire in a fight between the forces of rival generals that has now lasted 16 months.

• Warring parties refuse to attend peace talks

• Ten million people have been forced from their homes and tens of thousands are estimated to have died

3.) FT: Germany issues arrest warrant for Ukrainian over Nord Stream gas pipeline attacks

Investigators said to believe Ukrainian man was one of team that planted explosives on pipelines in September 2022

German authorities seek Ukrainian suspect for Nord Stream pipeline explosions. He allegedly dived to plant explosives in Sept 2022. Two others implicated. Suspect fled Poland to Ukraine. Investigation linked to yacht with false identities. No evidence of Ukrainian state involvement. Russia and West deny responsibility.

4.) Positive July CPI/inflation news

Annual inflation cooled to 2.9% — the first time it’s been below 3% since early 2021. Falling car prices and flat energy costs helped bring inflation down.

Graph per Heather Long:

5.) GOOGLE’s TAG: Iranian backed group steps up phishing campaigns against Israel, U.S.

Google's security teams say they saw a hacking group linked to Iran's IRGC target in May and June the personal email accounts of "roughly a dozen individuals" affiliated with Biden and Trump, including current and former officials and campaign staffers.

QUICK BITES:

1. UK Riots: Around 70% of those arrested have previous convictions for serious offenses.

   1. [TS] This is true of basically any riot. If the protest gets big enough to overwhelm authorities, career criminals take advantage of the chaos. These people are not ideologically driven.

2. Sean O’Brien, Teamsters president, spoke at the GOP convention. Now after Trump and Elon Musk laughed about firing workers on strike, he tells

   Rachael Bade:

   1. “Firing workers for organizing, striking, and exercising their rights as Americans is economic terrorism.” [TS] He’s looking pretty silly here.

   2. [UPDATE-RELATED] The UAW has filed federal labor charges against Trump and Musk. Under federal law, workers cannot be fired for going on strike, and threatening to do so is illegal under the National Labor Relations Act.

3. Newsweek: Trump Campaign Forced to Pay North Carolina City $82k in Advance for Rally.

4. Trump’s venue in Asheville:

   1. 

      [TS] Oof. Max capacity < 2,500.

5. FT: China’s Hesai to be removed from US defence department blacklist. Pentagon is removing Hesai Tech (Chinese laser sensor LIDAR maker) from the Chinese Military Companies blacklist following concerns that the original listing would not withstand legal scrutiny.

   1. In 2023, Hesai admitted to the SEC that the PRC “may influence or intervene in our operations at any time,” including “data security.” Now, Hesai is arguing in court that they aren’t a Chinese military company — and they’re winning. [TS] Not a great look.

6. On Friday in North Carolina, Vice President Harris intends to announce a plan to prevent corporations in the food and grocery industries from unfairly jacking up prices on consumers, by imposing the first-ever federal ban on corporate price-gouging in these industries.

   1. [TS] Doesn’t seem like it will be a good law. Sounds good in theory, I just don’t see how it would work in practice.

7. The head of the Israeli Mossad Dadi Barnea, head of Israeli Shin Bet Ronen Bar, and Major General Nitzan Alon will go today to Qatar meeting on a hostage deal

8. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) parrots anti-US propaganda from the Iranian regime in order to score political points.

9. WaPo: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sought a meeting last week with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to discuss the possibility of serving in her administration, perhaps as a Cabinet secretary, if he throws his support behind her campaign and she wins. Harris and her advisers have not responded with an offer to meet or shown interest in the proposal.

6.) [TS] Absurd Disney lawsuit per NY Post

[TS] Here is the short version:

• Doctor dies from anaphylaxis due to allergens at Disney restaurant after being assured it’s allergen free

• Widow sues

• Disney responds: you signed up for the Disney+ free trial and therefore agreed to our terms of service that says you can’t sue us

Disney is arguing that the arbitration clause of the TOS the decedent agreed to when signing up for a Disney+ free trial covers a wrongful death claim relating to food served at a Disney restaurant.

7.) [TS] It’s election season, so you know what that means…

8.) LA TIMES: Judge orders UCLA to ensure equal campus access to Jewish students after pro-Palestinian protests

[TS] Read directly from the ruling:

In the year 2024, in the United States of America, in the State of California, in the City of Los Angeles, Jewish students were excluded from portions of the UCLA campus because they refused to denounce their faith. This fact is so unimaginable and so abhorrent to our constitutional guarantee of religious freedom that it bears repeating, Jewish students were excluded from portions of the UCLA campus because they refused to denounce their faith. UCLA does not dispute this. Instead, UCLA claims that it has no responsibility to protect the religious freedom of its Jewish students because the exclusion was engineered by third-party protesters. But under constitutional principles, UCLA may not allow services to some students when UCLA knows that other students are excluded on religious grounds, regardless of who engineered the exclusion.

9.) 2020 Podcast with JD Vance raises eyebrows.

[TS] I honestly don’t think this is a big deal, but it’s certainly making the rounds. It’s just a strange way to talk about what a big help it was for your mother-in-law to help with your newborn.

10.) REUTERS: US FDA declines to approve first MDMA-based PTSD treatment

The same day the FDA made this decision, it came to light that several MDMA studies involved protocol violations trial runners were aware of.

Result? Three retractions in one day.

NUMBER ONE

Protocol violations trial runners were aware of, and failures to declare potential conflicts of interest.

NUMBER TWO

NUMBER THREE

Critical reaction:

You cannot submit a paper with results from a trial you knowingly conducted incorrectly without saying so, whether the reason was error or intent.

So retraction is warranted.

However, I think the much worse thing for the whole PTSD-MDMA enterprise is the lack of openness.

You can ask MAPS for their data and, in theory, they should readily provide it. After all, why not?

But no: they are very hesitant to let people access trial data, even when they're made aware that they *used inappropriate methods for their analyses*

It's not clear how much misanalysis matters, but it should be something they address. Too bad it might not matter anyway, because they flubbed the trials in other ways and made themselves seem ethically suspect and untrustworthy.

If you think MDMA is likely to work, you should be upset with these proponents of MDMA therapies since they've made for an embarrassing situation for everyone involved.

To be frank, there is no good evidence this therapy works at all since the trials are basically open label.

[TS] Here’s a ‘Science Friday’ episode on the numerous problems of the Lykos/MAPS studies specifically from the perspective of 1) lived experience, 2) psychotherapy, and 3) clinical trial design.regarding the FDA Panel’s rejection of MDMA therapy.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

NEWS NEWS

1. Kamala Harris Gains in Polls: Harris continues to improve in national polling average against Trump.

2. Labor Market Boost: Hamilton Project reports stronger employment growth for both US-born and foreign-born workers than previously estimated.

3. Fed Rate Cut Outlook: Atlanta Fed President Bostic cautious about rate cuts, wants more data before supporting reduction.

NOT NEWS NEWS

4. Ukraine's Kursk Operation: Analysis of Ukraine's strategic options following their incursion into Russia's Kursk region.

5. Martian Water Discovery: Liquid water reservoir found deep in Martian rocks using seismic data from NASA's InSight lander.

6. Harris Campaign Ad Tactics: Kamala Harris campaign using Google ads to rewrite news headlines, mimicking real search results.

7. IRA Manufacturing Delays: 40% of Biden's major IRA manufacturing projects face delays due to various economic and political factors.

8. Plastic Surgeons Break Consensus: American Society of Plastic Surgeons distances itself from "gender-affirming care" consensus for minors.

1.) Kamala ticks up another 1.2% in the Silver forecast.

Per Nate:

Today's update. Harris is *still* gaining on Trump on our national polling average, now 3.1 points.

[TS] I’m a little surprised to see polling continue to improve for Kamala. I expected the “honeymoon” period, but this seems like a rather long honeymoon. Dems would still expect to get a boost from the DNC convention (we’ll see if that happens). Still a lot of money to be spent on ads, and still a long way to go. Anything can happen (big shift in econ, terrorist attack etc.).

2.) Hamilton Project: The strong labor market has boosted US-born employment

Employment growth of both U.S.-born and foreign-born people in the U.S. exceeded published estimates. Contrary to published estimates, employment grew for U.S.-born workers in 2023.

Rather than increasing by 1 million between Jan 2023 & 2024, they estimate that household employment in the CPS rose by 2.5 million instead once population estimates are corrected to incorporate recent immigration trends

Their estimate closes virtually all of the gap between the household & establishment surveys. A crucial insight they make is that even with a higher foreign-born share, their higher population growth implies there was 930K more employment growth among U.S.-born workers over 2023.

[TS] My thoughts parroted Mathew Klein’s on this:

Interesting argument that the household survey has undercounted net employment growth by about 1.5 million people between January 2023 and January 2024, with ~1mn of that attributable to workers *born in the U.S.*

3.) BLOOMBERG: Fed’s Bostic Says More Data Needed, Rate Cut Likely by Year-End

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said he’s looking for “a little more data” before supporting a reduction in interest rates, emphasizing he wants to be sure the US central bank will not have to change course once it begins cutting.

“We want to be absolutely sure,” Bostic said Tuesday in remarks to the Conference of African American Financial Professionals in Atlanta. “It would be really bad if we started cutting rates and then had to turn around and raise them again.”

[TS] This seems like an unforced error. The risks of not cutting the rate seem to far outweigh cutting at this stage. I would shocked if they don’t cut in Sep…I think you’ll see a MASSIVE negative reaction from the markets/world.

[RELATED]

The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to a record $1.11 trillion over the last 12 months, more than doubling over the past two years. At the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security.

Chart by Charlie Bilello:

QUICK BITES:

1. Protesters with IfNotNow have blocked off the 405 freeway in West LA. They are calling for all elected Democrats ahead of the DNC to call for a lasting ceasefire in Gaze, reject AIPAC money, and call for an arms embargo to Israel.

   1. [TS] Like I said previously - there is no appeasing these people. They should be ignored. It was ceasefire but now it’s ceasefire AND arms embargo?

   2. [UPDATE] Traffic resuming, 9 arrests made. [TS] Good.

2. John Bolton on Trump’s story where he told Putin “Don’t ever do it.” regarding invading Ukraine: It’s “another case of Trump making things up that are hard to prove or disprove. There wasn't an occasion where Trump would be able to have that conversation privately, but it fits the persona that Trump thinks he has.”

   1. [TS] While I agree with Bolton, it’s hard for me to recommend any network cover anything he says given his actions during the administration:

      1. He was subpoenaed to testify but refused to comply, and instead wrote a book about what happened. Embarrassing stuff.

3. Some pretty subtle ads from the official Trump campaign:

   1. 

4. Trump campaign says "over $1 million was raised" from the links for the X Space interview with Elon Musk. [TS] This seems…fairly low. For reference, Elon said it reached “a billion views.” As a point of comparison: The ‘White Dudes for Harris’ call raised $4M and it didn’t even have the candidate on the call.

5. CA Gov Newsom (D) calls for all California schools to go phone free:

   1. “The evidence is clear: reducing phone-use in classrooms promote concentration, academic success & social & emotional development. We’re calling on California schools to act now to restrict smartphone use in classrooms. Let’s do what’s best for our youth.”

   2. [TS] I’m a big fan of this. It needs to be top down, otherwise it won’t work.

6. Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), who voted to convict Donald Trump in his second impeachment, plans to vote for him in November. [TS] Oof. I genuinely don’t understand how someone could be so unprincipled and frankly, spineless.

   1. [RELATED] Former Gov of Arizona Doug Ducey (R) endorses Trump. [TS] A knife to the back of the McCain family.

7. Volodymyr Zelenskyy: “Russia brought war to others, now it’s coming home.” [TS] Pair that with a headline like this:

   

8. AP: A constitutional amendment that qualified for the ballot in Missouri could guarantee a right to abortion while reversing the state’s near-total ban on the procedure.

9. Washington Examiner: Tim Walz called Hitler-promoting cleric a ‘master teacher’ at Islamic center event.

10. NBC: Former Kansas police chief formally charged over Marion newspaper raid.

    1. The police chief that raided the small paper in Marion County Kansas that ended up killing that poor woman has finally been charged. Not for the raid, but for obstruction.

11. Two ballot measures in Wisconsin that would have transferred power over spending decisions from the (Democratic) governor to the (Republican) legislature have both failed, by identical 58–42% margins.

12. Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI): The CCP’s Digital Charm Offensive.

    1. A recent study from the Network Contagion Research Institute found that TikTok “amplifies frontier influencers (travel and lifestyle content accounts) and irrelevant or clickbait material, to crowd out discussion of CCP-driven ethnic genocide and human rights abuses on its platform.”

13. US crude oil production has officially hit a record 13.4 million barrels per day.

14. AP: Indiana attorney general drops suit over privacy of Ohio girl who traveled for abortion

    1. It took 2 years for this scurrilous case to be dropped, but finally the doctor who cared for a pregnant 10-year-old rape victim has been exonerated.
       

4.) [UPDATE] Ukraine’s Operation in Kursk, Russia.

Mick Ryan has a good summary of the options available to Ukraine:

The Ukrainian operation in Kursk is almost one week into execution. As the Russians slowly but surely redeploy forces to seal off the breach in their border and attempt to push the Ukrainians back into Ukraine, it is worth pondering the options the Ukrainians might have once they reach their limit of exploitation.

Like all military operations, this will have been planned as a multiphase operation, including the prelude shaping operations. These would have included intelligence collection, force preparation, deception, operational security, logistics and other aspects necessary to prepare the Ukrainian force for battle.

Other phases will have been planned, including the ‘break in’ and ‘break through’ battles, ongoing exploitation and consolidation phases. These phases will have a range of forces and support elements applied to each.

The Ukrainian’s first phase, the ‘break in’ and ‘break through’ are complete. They are currently in an ‘exploitation’ phase. Many operations also normally include a ‘limit of exploitation’ governed by terrain, logistics and reaction of the enemy, as well as the objectives of the operation.

What might be Ukraine’s strategic options once they reach their limit of exploitation? I think they probably have three options. Each will have minor branch plans, as well as opportunities and risks.

OPTION 1

Option 1 is for the Ukrainians to consolidate on the terrain they have seized so far and then defend it until some form of negotiation takes place. This is the highest risk option because the Ukrainian dispositions feature multiple small salients which would be easily cut off and destroyed by even a semi-competant Russian commander.

The high probably of losing a large number of forces in this scenario makes it a strategic & political liability. Ukraine could lose battalions and brigades, as well as artillery, EW and air defence it could not afford to lose. This option, should it go bad, would also squander the very positive strategic messaging that has been generated by the Ukrainian surprise attack into Russia.

The objective for this option would be to continue posing a significant risk to Russian sovereignty and critical assets, and constitute a draw for Russian forces from Ukraine. It might also provide Ukraine some leverage if forced into negotiations in the near future. It is questionable whether the downside risks of this option are worth the return however.

OPTION 2

The 2nd option is for the Ukrainians to undertake a partial withdrawal from the territory it has seized, back to ground that is more defensible. This is a medium risk option, with a decreased risk of Option 1.

This would rely on the Ukrainians conducting a withdrawal into pre-designated terrain that is easier to defend, requires a smaller quantity of troops to defend, and is able to be supported by fires, logistics and other functions more effectively.

This option would also ensure that more troops could be reallocated after the operation to other activities, be they defending in the Donbas or subsequent cross-border attacks into Russia where there is an opportunity to do so.

Option 2 allows Ukraine to maximize the political and strategic benefits of the strategic shock, while reducing the risks of losing that combat force. It would still require large numbers of combat and support troops to defend the seized Russian territory, and would demand a major engineer effort to build minefields and other obstacles, trench-lines and deep bunkers and logistic storage locations.

The objective for this option would be to continue posing a risk to Russian sovereignty, comprise an ongoing draw for Russian forces from Ukraine and to give Ukraine some leverage if forced into negotiations in the near future. The humiliation of Putin and his military is also important. The risks of this opportunity might be worth the potential gains.

OPTION 3

The third option for Ukraine would be to fully withdraw back to the international border between Russia and Ukraine. This would permit Ukraine to maximize the political and strategic benefits of operation into Russia while preserving a large body of experienced combat troops that might be employed on subsequent offensive operations in 2024 and 2025.

By choosing this option the Ukrainians would be messaging to the Russians that “we can invade and hurt your country if we choose, but we have no wish to occupy our neighbours”. While the Ukrainian invasion may allow Putin to reinforce his point to Russians about the ‘threat from NATO’, he also appears weak because he was not able to punish those who conducted the operation in Kursk.

The objective for this option would be to humiliate Putin, preserve Ukrainian combat forces, while sending a strategic message to Ukraine’s supporters that they can go on the offensive and do so in a manner which does pose an existential risk to the ground forces conducting the operation.

Given the preservation of Ukrainian forces under this option, it will probably be the one that gives Zelenskyy the best domestic political boost and improvement in Ukrainian morale.

A range of factors will have an influence on which option the Ukrainian government chooses. These factors include how the Russians change their force posture in Ukraine (including in the Donbas), the Russian response in Kursk, domestic and international political considerations, and the sustainability of the operation itself.

[TS] For a more detailed look at the options above, see the full article here.

5.) BBC: Reservoir of liquid water found deep in Martian rocks

• Liquid water was found on Mars for the first time, at depths of 6-12 miles in the Martian crust.

• The discovery was made using seismic data from NASA's InSight lander, which recorded over 1,300 quakes during its four-year mission.

[TS] Would be really interesting to access that water and see if there is any life. Hopefully, it’s already in the works!

6.) AXIOS: Harris campaign's Google ads rewrite news headlines

It's a common practice in the commercial advertising world that doesn't violate Google's policies, but the ads mimic real news results from Search closely enough that they have news outlets caught off guard.

• According to Google's ad transparency center, the Trump campaign isn't running these types of ads, but this technique has been used by campaigns before.

• The ads say that they are sponsored, but it's not immediately clear that the text that accompanies real news links is written by the campaigns and not by the media publication itself.

7.) FT: Delays hit 40% of Biden’s major IRA manufacturing projects

The delays raise questions around Biden’s bet that an industrial transformation can deliver jobs and economic returns to the US

Reasons: deteriorating market conditions, slowing demand, high materials costs, regulatory impediments (eg, permitting), labor constraints, & political uncertainty.

8.) CITY JOURNAL: A Consensus No Longer

The American Society of Plastic Surgeons, an organization representing 92% of all board-certified plastic surgeons in the U.S., becomes the first major medical association to break from the consensus over “gender-affirming care” for minors.

ASPS acknowledges the “low quality” nature of the evidence for Rx. It emphasized that it has never endorsed WPATH’s “standards of care” or the Endocrine Society’s 2017 CPG.

ASPS also said it is currently “reviewing and prioritizing several initiatives,” presumably to provide members with better guidance.

[TS] This is coming off the heels of WPATH suppressing reviews/evidence (which I’ve covered previously). ASPS joins:

• United Kingdom: While gender-affirming care is available, the Cass Review led to the closure of the Tavistock clinic, and there has been a shift toward more cautious and multidisciplinary approaches, especially for minors.

• Sweden: Sweden has restricted access to certain types of gender-affirming care for minors. In 2021, Sweden’s National Board of Health and Welfare issued guidelines restricting the use of puberty blockers and hormone therapy for minors outside of clinical trials.

• Finland: Finland has also tightened its guidelines on gender-affirming care, particularly for minors, recommending psychotherapy as the primary treatment rather than medical interventions.

• Norway: Similar to Sweden and Finland, Norway has implemented more restrictive guidelines on gender-affirming care for minors, emphasizing psychological support and cautioning against medical interventions unless under specific circumstances.

[TS] ASPS might also be changing because at least 7 ASPS members are currently being sued by detransitioners.